Predict Pats biggest FA signing 2013

[ivanvamp]

Agreed. Reed is one of my favorite players but I don't really think getting a player who is on the decline is really going to help us much.

Rodney Harrison says hello.

 

[Patsrock]

Rodney Harrison says hello.

Rodney was 31. Reed will be 35 opening day weekend.

 

[jsull87]

That's an interesting starting point of what an extremely optimistic scenario would get us. I'm no capologist, but I think your numbers are very much rose-tinted, and even then it's going to be tight. You also left out Arrington, who could still be of interest at the right price, in the right role.

There are a number of other places that I think that some money may be freed up:

1. Gostkowski. $3.4M cap hit in 2013, $3.8M in 2014. Sorry, but he's just not worth it. Cutting him would save around $1.8M this year and $3M next. There are good rookie UDFA kickers to be found. The team may ask him to take a pay cut or be released.

2. Gregory. I'm not sure how this would be done, but he has a $3M cap hit both this year and next, and I don't see him being worth it. Cutting him only saves $0.5K this year, but $2.35M in 2014, for a net cap savings of almost $3M over 2 years. I'm not sure what the incentive would be for him to restructure, but it's something I could see the team exploring. He's only 29 and a solid role player - I have no problem with him, just with the size of his contract relative to his value.

3. Extending/restructuring Brady and Wilfork. Both should be playing at a high level beyond the end of their current contracts, and both are foundational players and team leaders.

It will be interesting to see how creative the Pats are in the offseason.

As for all the wonderful external FAs mentioned in this thread, I can't see how the Pats are going to possibly afford any of them, unless they do some major restructuring, or they lose some major pieces from the current team. Welker, Talib and Vollmer are the top priorities, followed by Woodhead, and Edelman and then Thomas, Fletcher, Arrington, Cole, White, Hoomanawanui and Ballard. I just can't see how a Percy Harvin, Ed Reed (he'll be overpriced and at 35 he's likely to hit a wall) or anyone else would be squeezed in.

Very rose tinted. That was my point, even with everything concievably going well to get us to a large amount of cap room... i think signing all those players i mentioned is going to be nigh on impossible.

Thats not even mentioning picking up any other FA's

 

[jsull87]

Of course he could have helped. Claiming otherwise is just insane.

Without getting into some long winded argument.

He said "He couldn't have helped enough in 2009-10 to justify his cost given the issues and makeup of those teams".

You said the above in response. It is clear you often like to be the devils advocate on here but next time at least respond to the point he is making rather than just for the sake of argueing.

I think you know that or if not just go back and read his post before being argumentitive. The argument is could the help he would have provided as a player be less or greater than the amount of money he would have cost us and the corresponding consequences in loss of other personel.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

That's an interesting starting point of what an extremely optimistic scenario would get us. I'm no capologist, but I think your numbers are very much rose-tinted, and even then it's going to be tight. You also left out Arrington, who could still be of interest at the right price, in the right role.

There are a number of other places that I think that some money may be freed up:

1. Gostkowski. $3.4M cap hit in 2013, $3.8M in 2014. Sorry, but he's just not worth it. Cutting him would save around $1.8M this year and $3M next. There are good rookie UDFA kickers to be found. The team may ask him to take a pay cut or be released.

2. Gregory. I'm not sure how this would be done, but he has a $3M cap hit both this year and next, and I don't see him being worth it. Cutting him only saves $0.5K this year, but $2.35M in 2014, for a net cap savings of almost $3M over 2 years. I'm not sure what the incentive would be for him to restructure, but it's something I could see the team exploring. He's only 29 and a solid role player - I have no problem with him, just with the size of his contract relative to his value.

3. Extending/restructuring Brady and Wilfork. Both should be playing at a high level beyond the end of their current contracts, and both are foundational players and team leaders.

It will be interesting to see how creative the Pats are in the offseason.

As for all the wonderful external FAs mentioned in this thread, I can't see how the Pats are going to possibly afford any of them, unless they do some major restructuring, or they lose some major pieces from the current team. Welker, Talib and Vollmer are the top priorities, followed by Woodhead, and Edelman and then Thomas, Fletcher, Arrington, Cole, White, Hoomanawanui and Ballard. I just can't see how a Percy Harvin, Ed Reed (he'll be overpriced and at 35 he's likely to hit a wall) or anyone else would be squeezed in.

Gostkowski's down year has resulted in the 6th highest point total for a kicker (149) and that's only through 15 games. He's 17 points shy of the record. He may be be asked to restructure. I doubt he gets cut but even if he does it wouldn't be until training camp. They'll likely bring in competition to camp and it's possible they actually find one of those UDFA that would be good enough to make a change but I don't think it's all that likely they will. I understand a lot of good kickers were undrafted, I just don't think you can count on finding one. Either way I wouldn't count on using his salary on free agents.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

Agreed. If the Ravens let Reed walk, I fully expect Belichick to roll out the red carpet for him.

Not in a million years unless he signs a very, very, friendly cap deal. Bill tends not to pay veterans with health risks and that is what Reed is.

 

[Deus Irae]

Without getting into some long winded argument.

He said "He couldn't have helped enough in 2009-10 to justify his cost given the issues and makeup of those teams".

You said the above in response. It is clear you often like to be the devils advocate on here but next time at least respond to the point he is making rather than just for the sake of argueing.

I think you know that or if not just go back and read his post before being argumentitive. The argument is could the help he would have provided as a player be less or greater than the amount of money he would have cost us and the corresponding consequences in loss of other personel.

I read his post. My point stands.

 

[mayoclinic]

Gostkowski's down year has resulted in the 6th highest point total for a kicker (149) and that's only through 15 games. He's 17 points shy of the record. He may be be asked to restructure. I doubt he gets cut but even if he does it wouldn't be until training camp. They'll likely bring in competition to camp and it's possible they actually find one of those UDFA that would be good enough to make a change but I don't think it's all that likely they will. I understand a lot of good kickers were undrafted, I just don't think you can count on finding one. Either way I wouldn't count on using his salary on free agents.

But is that the result of Gostkowski being a particularly good kicker, or Gostkowski kicking for a particularly prolific offense that creates lots of opportunities for him?

Gost is a decent kicker, but he's being paid as an absolute top end kicker in the NFL. He has a cap hit of $3.4M in 2013, and the franchise tag for kickers is projected to be around $2.9M next year. I agree that he's not likely to get cut before camp, and I'm certainly not counting on it, but stranger things have happened, and if the Pats need to make some hard choices regarding cap room it's a option, especially if they decide that they can probably do as well on the open market at much less cost. They've already looked at some other options (including taking a look at Billy Cundiff during the season).

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

get someone in the secondary please as talib may be gone

 

[DaBruinz]

Jason has the Patriots currently able to carry forward $6.7m and 16m under the cap for next year without that, so factoring in 5m for rookies the Patriots have $19.7m.

Brady has a cap hit of £21.8m though which can be lowered with an extension or another restructure.

Next years cap numbers: New England Patriots Salary Cap 2013

Not a lot of money to play with once you add in Welker, Vollmer, Talib, Woodhead & Edelman needing new contracts.

The Pats could have more coming to them because of the Fanene situation. I believe the Pats petitioned the league to have the contract voided and the Signing Bonus money returned because Fanene didn't disclose his full injury history.

That being said, Jason doesn't have Fiametta on his 2013 list. Fiametta's contract didn't age because of the exemption.

Also, Jason doesn't have Ballard or Pryor on his 2013 roster. Both of them did not have their contracts age due to spending the entire year on the PUP.

 

[DaBruinz]

I believe the Patriots had 25 days after cutting him to file an injury grievance over Fanene. Never heard a word. And surely we would have if they did. He may have time to file against them yet if they fail to pay the deferred portion of his signing bonus when it comes due. The Colts filed a similar grievance over a FA signing in 2006. Signed Corey Simon after the Eagles rescinded his tag over concerns with his weight and motivation. I think Simon played in 3 games in two seasons and Polian lost $13M in the process which they never recovered. Claimed his 2007 diagnosis of an immume mediated arthritis during training camp was pre existing...

I think his signing was one of many mistakes made last season that were the result of the FO and medical staff not doing their jobs particularly well. I think the bluster about the disclosure forms was just ownership covering up for an embarassing failure of the organization to perform due diligence in their haste to plug some gaps. The Kraft's don't like it when something backfires and makes them look foolish.

I've asked a couple of mediots about the situation and gotten no response. I'm going to try Brandt as he would be all over an issue like this if there was anything going on.

The Pats DID file a grievance over it. It was "reported" via Twitter by Reiss/Price et al.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yes, but it's even worse after the transition to a 4-3 defense in '11. This defense has regressed very quickly in the past 2 years. Look at the defensive ranks in the Belichick era:

[B]Season      Pts    TotYds     PassYds      RushYds[/B]
2001        6        24         24           19
2002        17       23         11           31
2003        1        7          15           4
2004        2        9          17           6
2005        17       26         31           8
2006        2        6          12           5
2007        4        4          6            10
2008        8        10         11           15
2009        5        11         12           13
2010        8        25         30           11
2011        15       31         31           17
2012        17       27         29           12

I'm not sure if the reason is the DC or lack of talent, but this defense looks very poor to what we had with Pees and Crennel.

No offense, but posting that doesn't mean a damn thing. You have to post the actual stats. Those are what matter because you can make an actual comparison.

 

[DaBruinz]

But is that the result of Gostkowski being a particularly good kicker, or Gostkowski kicking for a particularly prolific offense that creates lots of opportunities for him?

Gost is a decent kicker, but he's being paid as an absolute top end kicker in the NFL. He has a cap hit of $3.4M in 2013, and the franchise tag for kickers is projected to be around $2.9M next year. I agree that he's not likely to get cut before camp, and I'm certainly not counting on it, but stranger things have happened, and if the Pats need to make some hard choices regarding cap room it's a option, especially if they decide that they can probably do as well on the open market at much less cost. They've already looked at some other options (including taking a look at Billy Cundiff during the season).

Sorry, Mayo, but your evaluation of Gost leave a lot to be desired. Like way too many people you only look at his FG stats and you ignore his kick-offs. The Pats have 50 TBs (a 46.7%, the highest of Gost Career) and the average return is only 20.8 yards. That is 4th best in the league. That is an extremely valuable kicker right there, particularly in the game of field position. And it's well known that Belichick prefers the returns over the TB because he has faith in the guys making more stops inside the 20 than past the 30.


The only reason the Pats "looked" at other kickers was to evaluate them for the emergency call list.

BTW, Cundiff is 7-12 on FGs. He's missed 2 form under 40, 1 from 40-49 and 2 from 50+...

Compared to Gost's being 29/35. He missed 2 from 30-39, 4 from 40-49 and 0 from 50+.... And I'm fairly certain most everyone has agreed that 1 of those misses should have counted.... And there were 3 or 4 others that had no bearing on the outcome of the game.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry, Mayo, but your evaluation of Gost leave a lot to be desired. Like way too many people you only look at his FG stats and you ignore his kick-offs. The Pats have 50 TBs (a 46.7%, the highest of Gost Career) and the average return is only 20.8 yards. That is 4th best in the league. That is an extremely valuable kicker right there, particularly in the game of field position. And it's well known that Belichick prefers the returns over the TB because he has faith in the guys making more stops inside the 20 than past the 30.

The only reason the Pats "looked" at other kickers was to evaluate them for the emergency call list.

BTW, Cundiff is 7-12 on FGs. He's missed 2 form under 40, 1 from 40-49 and 2 from 50+...

Compared to Gost's being 29/35. He missed 2 from 30-39, 4 from 40-49 and 0 from 50+.... And I'm fairly certain most everyone has agreed that 1 of those misses should have counted.... And there were 3 or 4 others that had no bearing on the outcome of the game.

I understand that Gost is a very good kickoff kicker. I'm not bashing Gostkowski. I think he's a good kicker overall. I've never criticized him all season, though many have. I'm not making any predictions, and certainly not counting on anything. I'm merely suggesting that, given that we may have to make some decisions about who to keep and who to let go, the Pats will have to decide whether Gostkowski is worth a $3.4M cap hit, and that if push comes to shove, he could potentially be a casualty. I certainly won't cheer if it happens, but I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[Joker]

without a doubt, the Pats biggest signing will be the resigning of Fanonnynununoodles, who, even though a COMPLETE NON ENTITY GHOST INVISIBLE NOBODY this season, will come back as "the missing piece!!!!!!" for the legions of "missing link" morons who are still butthurt that their Fanoodles was so unceremoniously shown the door.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I understand that Gost is a very good kickoff kicker. I'm not bashing Gostkowski. I think he's a good kicker overall. I've never criticized him all season, though many have. I'm not making any predictions, and certainly not counting on anything. I'm merely suggesting that, given that we may have to make some decisions about who to keep and who to let go, the Pats will have to decide whether Gostkowski is worth a $3.4M cap hit, and that if push comes to shove, he could potentially be a casualty. I certainly won't cheer if it happens, but I wouldn't be shocked.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but it bears repeating: BB didn't just hand him a big contract just for the heck of it. Obviously there was a reason why BB felt it made sense to offer him that much money.

And, BTW, before that 65-yard return in the SF game (that should have been largely wiped out), the Pats were holding teams under 20 yards/return.

 

[supafly]

2013 New England Patriots Salary Cap Space = $18.865 million

Hoomanawanui (RFA) = $1.323 million
Fletcher (RFA) = $1.323 million
White = $940,000 + $165,000 = $1.105 million
Koutouvides = $840,000 + $65,000 = $905,000
Thomas = $715,000 + $50,000 = $765,000
Cole = $715,000 + $40,000 = $755,000

Subtotal = $6.176 million

2013 NFL Draft Picks = $3.5 million

Wes Welker = $6 million (3 years, $24 million total, $12 million guaranteed)

Remaining salary cap space = $3.289 million (Woodhead, Edelman, Ballard, Pryor)

Pryor is not a FA, due to having remained on the PUP list all year. You can immediately cross his name off the list.

I claimed 2/20 with 14-15 guaranteed for Welker and about 90% thought that was too low, so I doubt 3/24 with 12 guaranteed even comes close to getting it done.

I'm also expecting a TFB extension, which would free up more cap money. I doubt they are okay with his 2013 cap hit + he's still playing at an awfully high level so it's a win-win.

 

[patfanken]

Of course he could have helped. Claiming otherwise is just insane.

Richard Seymour was NOT coming back to the Pats after the 2009 season. Not only because of his money demands, but because Seymour didn't want to come back (for a lot of reasons that aren't worth discussing, because they've been rehashed many times before).

Yes the Pats defense would have been better in 2009 if Seymour had been on it. But to think that he'd have been the difference on that flawed team is just as insane as asserting he wouldn't have made the Pats defense better.

Not only did the Pats get a franchise LT with the pick, the $40MM that they DIDN'T have to pay Seymour was better spent on other players who have formed the core of the Pats retooling.

You can question a lot of moves that the Pats have made over the years. There has have been a number that haven't worked out. But if you had to compile a list of the best moves personnel moves of the BB era, the trading of Richard Seymour, would be in the top 10.

 

[supafly]

I don't think the Talib situation is quite as set in stone as many fans tend to think. While that would obviously be in their best interests and would certainly justify the use of a 4th round draft pick too, it remains to be seen exactly how much Aqib Talib will be asking/expecting on a new deal.

It's a position that Belichick has historically tended to pay lower at, due to the ridiculous inflation of CBs in general (especially mediocre ones), and he'll likely already have to bite the bullet as it is with the Devin McCourty situation coming up after next season.

I could just as easily see a fair offer of approx. 6--6.5 million per offered to Talib which may be turned down. Hopefully Talib will get a taste of a winning team and a trip to the postseason as extra incentive to wish to stay for the future.

I would also imagine that the secondary positions of CB/S will be addressed via the draft too once again, at least on some level, and at least one or the other if not both.

 

[josh24]

No offense, but posting that doesn't mean a damn thing. You have to post the actual stats. Those are what matter because you can make an actual comparison.

The ranks is what matters the most because it gives historical context to the stats and records.
For example, a team with 4000 passing yds in the 2011 NFL couldn't crack the top 10, while it was enough for a 2nd place in the 2001 NFL. Or a team with 2000 rushing yds in the 2010 NFL would make it to 8th place, while the 1985 NFL averaged 2000 rushing yds per team.
Same happens with the consecutive games with a passing TD record: Unitas' streak means more because he was not even close to his contenders in the league at the moment, while Brees/Brady did it on an era led by elite passers (hope you take this as an offense to our guy; if he does it, amen to that. Another proof he is the GOAT).

But is fine. Here are the defensive stats per game:

[B]Season        Pts          TotYds        PassYds         RushYds[/B]
2001          17.00        334.50        218.56          115.94
2002          21.63        336.06        198.69          137.38
2003          14.88        291.63        202.00          89.63
2004          16.25        310.75        212.50          98.25
2005          21.13        330.19        231.44          98.75
2006          14.81        294.38        200.19          94.19
2007          17.13        288.31        190.06          98.25
2008          19.31        309.00        201.38          107.63
2009          17.81        320.19        209.69          110.50
2010          19.56        366.50        258.50          108.00
2011          21.38        411.06        293.94          117.13
2012          22.07        381.07        275.53          105.53

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 18 points per game. We have accomplished that in 8 out of the 31 games (25.8%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 319 total yards per game. We have accomplished that in 3 out of the 31 games (9.7%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 212 passing yards per game. We have accomplished that in 6 out of the 31 games (19.4%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 106 rushing yards per game. We have accomplished that in 16 out of the 31 games (51.6%) in the last 2 seasons. (The only place where we have been consistent. Not better, though.)

Also, we allowed 500 plays of 20+ yds (what is considered "big plays" for the NFL) from '01 to '10, an average of 50 per season, or 3 per game. In the last 2 years we've allowed 164 plays of this type (NFL-leading), an average of 82 per season, or 5 per game.