What to do with Wes Welker?

[supafly]

"Good faith" my ass. The Patriots blocked Welker from a fair market deal

Really? Because I kind of thought that was the purpose of the franchise tag on some level. To keep a player (at a high cap hit) that you are trying to negotiate with on a longer term deal.

To say "they BLOCKED Welker" from a fair market deal is a bit of a stretch. Did they pay him what they should have? No. And that is the choice that they made, and will have to make again. It is also the reason why they may end up on the wrong side of things if his production should continue to stay high (which it should) and he ends up on another team.

They chose to pay Welker almost 10 million dollars guaranteed this year, which would put him in line with most of the other elite WRs of the game.

I think we'd begin to get into a whole other debate here as to exactly how much they robbed Welker by "only" paying him 10 million dollars guaranteed this year, and we could probably go 'round and 'round for hours on that subject alone as everyone will have different opinions.

Keep in mind that N.England probably didn't want to have to deal with a 10 million dollar cap hit this year either. There are arguments to both sides, and for whatever reason they held their ground (not that I necessarily agree with their decision).

 

[ATippett56]

If you are simply talking about what is "right" for Welker and his situation, then it would probably be a split down the middle between both of our pacts, which would put him at 3 years and 30 million. That would be fair for sure, but I have my doubts as to whether or not the team would go for that seeing as how they seemed to undervalue him last off-season.

I somewhat disagree with the total value of the contract. Randy Moss at the age of 31 received $27 million for 3 years ($12 million signing bonus) and Reggie Wayne at the age of 33 received $17.5 million for 3 years ($7.5 million signing bonus).

With the salary cap to be projected around $121.1 million for the 2013 NFL Season, Wes Welker at the age of 32 should be valued around $21 million for 3 years with a $12 million signing bonus (same as Randy Moss received).

Salary Cap Hits

2013: $5.94 million ($940,000 base, $500,000 roster, $500,000 workout)
2014: $7 million
2015: $8.06 million

 

[Huckleberry1]

Really? Because I kind of thought that was the purpose of the franchise tag on some level. To keep a player (at a high cap hit) that you are trying to negotiate with on a longer term deal.

To say "they BLOCKED Welker" from a fair market deal is a bit of a stretch. Did they pay him what they should have? No. And that is the choice that they made, and will have to make again. It is also the reason why they may end up on the wrong side of things if his production should continue to stay high (which it should) and he ends up on another team.

They chose to pay Welker almost 10 million dollars guaranteed this year, which would put him in line with most of the other elite WRs of the game.

I think we'd begin to get into a whole other debate here as to exactly how much they robbed Welker by "only" paying him 10 million dollars guaranteed this year, and we could probably go 'round and 'round for hours on that subject alone as everyone will have different opinions.

Keep in mind that N.England probably didn't want to have to deal with a 10 million dollar cap hit this year either. There are arguments to both sides, and for whatever reason they held their ground (not that I necessarily agree with their decision).

The CBA requires teams tagging players to make good faith offers in their negotiations, and there is no way 2 years at 150% of the tag is a good faith offer when lesser players are getting 50 million dollar deals and 25 guaranteed. The only guaranteed money players get is the signing bonus and the Patriots blocked Welker from getting that signing bonus. They knew another team would pay him much more than they were offering and used the tag to block that from happening, and that's an abuse of the franchise tag. On the other hand the same cannot be said of the Mankins negotiations and tag because while Mankins didn't like the offer it was well within the realm of good faith.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I fail to see why Llyod's fair market deal or Edelman's peanuts would have much to do with whether or not Welker stays.

Vollmer is a much different story altogether due to injury concerns, so that will factor into whether or not he accepts NE's offer, which will be lower than he may get from other teams.

I can't agree on cutting certain players that could potentially hurt certain parts of the team to shore up one player/position, so there will be some debate there. Both Llyod and Edelman should come at fairly reasonable prices for the next couple of seasons, and will contribute towards the future for fairly cheap deals.

As far as your proposed 4 year/40 million dollar deal with 25 guaranteed, I would not think that too many would agree with that, certainly not the majority.

While the same could be said for "my" proposal of 2/20 with 15 guaranteed, it's obvious that the team feels closer to my opinion. Whether they are ultimately correct or not remains to be seen, but their history has proven to be much better than most in these situations.

I just couldn't see how they would suddenly even come close to offering him a 4 year/40 million dollar deal one year after they wouldn't put anything better than 2/16 on the table, and that's why I came up with the 2/20 proposal---nothing more.

If you are simply talking about what is "right" for Welker and his situation, then it would probably be a split down the middle between both of our pacts, which would put him at 3 years and 30 million. That would be fair for sure, but I have my doubts as to whether or not the team would go for that seeing as how they seemed to undervalue him last off-season.

Lloyd has been pretty much of a bust and Edelman and Vollmer are free agents, if people are worried about the cap then I would make those moves to ensure keeping Welker, who is critical to the success of this team, despite the constant claims of those pining to get rid of him for the last 3 years. Keeping Welker here and this offense rolling is far more important than keeping the others, they can be replaced, Welker can't.

Whether or not people agree with me is irrelevant, what matters is what his production would bring on the open market and I have no doubt that there are teams out there who realize just how valuable Welker is and would have given him 4-40 had the Patriots not blocked him from going to market. the Patriots knew that he was going to get much more than they wanted to give him, that's why they tagged him and then made a bogus offer just to say they made one.

As far as your offer and the team I agree with you that they are much closer to your stance than mine, but had they simply made the offer you suggest with the 9 from this year included they would likely have a deal already. I don't think Welker is looking to break the bank in any and would have agreed to 3-30 with 20 guaranteed, and he would have been well worth it. If you were to look at it purely from a production standpoint he's worth much much more.


And yes, I am talking about what is right and not simply how the Patriots or Patriot fans see it. To see a player who has sold out 100% for this team day after day, game after game, season after season get treated in this way is a disgrace imo, and if it happens to Brady or Wilfork I will be equally disgusted by it because players like this deserve better treatment, at leasty imo.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps, but in free agency one often gets more than a fair deal from some GM.

I just think that a 2 year deal for 20 million with 14-15 guaranteed is very fair for both sides.

 

[supafly]

Perhaps, but in free agency one often gets more than a fair deal from some GM.

I think that a 3rd year could in theory, be added to help to bridge the gap, but it would have to be something of a 'dummy' year/backout year and I don't think this team has been known to do that too often, although I could be wrong. Much better minds than me could possibly come up with some way to get that 3rd year in there.

Just to clarify, I based my 2/20 with 14-15 guaranteed numbers on a bit of a bias from what I will guess/assume that the front office would be willing to do, and that is why I termed the deal "fair" for both sides. If you really wanted to be absolutely impartial then Welker would likely be worth something more than that, although I have a bit of a hard time imaging that the front office would come up any higher than my projection of 2/20 right now.

I certainly agree that it only takes one GM to pay more than the 2/20 projection of mine, and that it would likely be his last year here if that were the offer. The problem and concern I have is that they won't come up much higher than that, and if we're expecting some crazy numbers to be thrown around like (4/40--no disrespect intended to Ivan), then we may as well come to terms right now that he'll be gone.

 

[supafly]

Lloyd has been pretty much of a bust and Edelman and Vollmer are free agents, if people are worried about the cap then I would make those moves to ensure keeping Welker, who is critical to the success of this team, despite the constant claims of those pining to get rid of him for the last 3 years. Keeping Welker here and this offense rolling is far more important than keeping the others, they can be replaced, Welker can't.

Your points are certainly debatable and I by no means am trying to act like I am all-knowing or correct and that you are not, but ultimately it will depend on who the team sees as being more easily replaceable.

Arguments could be made for Llyod that it was only his first year here, and that he has been more of an addition to the offense than some are giving him credit for. He is certainly an upgrade over Branch, who we were all complaining about last post-season at times. Another year with Brady and he could be a much bigger player, but I can't really justify cutting him with his salary at a managable rate. He's started every game and contributed with 50 catches so far. More importantly he adds a bit of a threat to the defense, which they must account for. If he was making something more significant than I would agree with you, but I think he is fine moving forward.

Edelman shouldn't command must of a payday, and I really don't see him as much of a factor towards whether or not they keep Welker.

Vollmer is a mystery due to his injury situation, but I'm sure they'd much rather keep him than let him go. The big question will be "how much" they lowball him due to their concerns about his durability, and if he is willing to take something less to stay here or not. He may be the most likely to go out of the 3 players that you named, but who knows what their opinions are? We are all just speculating.

I agree that the way they treated Welker so far has been a bit of a strange situation. Either they really don't value him as much as other teams may, or they are trying to strategize their way to a fair deal. They also may find him to be relaceable, while many others do not. We'll have to see.

 

[ivanvamp]

Lloyd has been pretty much of a bust

Why would you say that? He's on pace for 67 rec and 748 yds. That's fairly labeled a bit disappointing, but the Pats have so many receiving options that, combined with a greater commitment to the running game, pretty much necessarily meant that he was going to have a season with stats that look something like this. I mean, if he was going to have a 100 reception season, it would mean that Welker or Gronk or Hernandez would be catching a lot fewer balls.

I'd like to see Lloyd get some deep balls from time to time, but on the whole, he's been alright.

 

[1960Pats]

This gave me an idea for a drinking game. Here's the rules:

1) take a swig whenever Welker makes a reception after a penalty to bring the offense back to a manageable down-distance situation (1st and 20 to 2nd and 10, etc.)

2) a: Take a swig whenever a Welker catch results in a first down.
b: Take a shot if it's third down and he catches the ball more than 2 yards behind the first-down marker, then gets the first down with YAC.

3) Take a swig if Brady is blitzed and counters it by immediately completing a pass to Welker

4) Take a shot if Welker scores a touchdown.

By the end of most games, you'll be feeling the effects in a pretty big way.

In most games we wouldn't make it to halftime.

 

[1960Pats]

Actually the people who should be ashamed of themselves are those who have been Borgesing Welker for the last 3 years.

"Borgesing" is the act of making the same 100%wrong argument day after day and year after year withe exPecation that eventually time will make it true.

Which is worse, the act of Borgesing or being Borgessed from reading his bs?

Reading what he says day after day and year after year certainly can't help.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why would you say that? He's on pace for 67 rec and 748 yds. That's fairly labeled a bit disappointing, but the Pats have so many receiving options that, combined with a greater commitment to the running game, pretty much necessarily meant that he was going to have a season with stats that look something like this. I mean, if he was going to have a 100 reception season, it would mean that Welker or Gronk or Hernandez would be catching a lot fewer balls.

I'd like to see Lloyd get some deep balls from time to time, but on the whole, he's been alright.

FWIW Gronk and Hernandez have been catching a lot fewer balls due to injury...

 

[Kontradiction]

The two guys that most here labeled "Welker replacements" in the offseason (Hernandez and Edelman) have missed time due to injury in every season of their careers. Re-signing Welker should be a no-brainer.

 

[satz]

I fully expect some team to offer a garcon type deal .
5 yr / 42 million / 20 Million gauranteed.

he will probabily will play 3-4 yrs in that deal and make 25-30 million and call it a day or if strockley a similar player with similar skills is any indication , he can play till 37-38 with a few million a year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Why would you say that? He's on pace for 67 rec and 748 yds. That's fairly labeled a bit disappointing, but the Pats have so many receiving options that, combined with a greater commitment to the running game, pretty much necessarily meant that he was going to have a season with stats that look something like this. I mean, if he was going to have a 100 reception season, it would mean that Welker or Gronk or Hernandez would be catching a lot fewer balls.

I'd like to see Lloyd get some deep balls from time to time, but on the whole, he's been alright.

He's been disappearing lately when they have needed him more, or at least it appears that way to me, and his YAC is non-existent, he literally makes the catch and falls down, and it looks like Brady has less confidence and desire to throw him the ball now than he did when the season started, all in all bad trends. He may see the ball more with Edelman out but IMO if they are looking for ways to afford Welker then Lloyd would be one of the first moves I would make to save money, and that's the context I brought it up in.

BTW-I never expected 100 receptions out of him either but I definitely expected him to pose a greater threat to opposing defenses and have much more of an impact on games, and he really hasn't done either. If he turns it around for the rest of the season and play-offs I will be happy about it but at this point I am not expecting too much from him.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I fully expect some team to offer a garcon type deal .
5 yr / 42 million / 20 Million gauranteed.

he will probabily will play 3-4 yrs in that deal and make 25-30 million and call it a day or if strockley a similar player with similar skills is any indication , he can play till 37-38 with a few million a year.

This how i see it as well. i have never seen any player as undervalued by both team and fans alike as Welker.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Just to clarify, I based my 2/20 with 14-15 guaranteed numbers on a bit of a bias from what I will guess/assume that the front office would be willing to do, and that is why I termed the deal "fair" for both sides. If you really wanted to be absolutely impartial then Welker would likely be worth something more than that, although I have a bit of a hard time imaging that the front office would come up any higher than my projection of 2/20 right now.

I certainly agree that it only takes one GM to pay more than the 2/20 projection of mine, and that it would likely be his last year here if that were the offer. The problem and concern I have is that they won't come up much higher than that, and if we're expecting some crazy numbers to be thrown around like (4/40--no disrespect intended to Ivan), then we may as well come to terms right now that he'll be gone.

I don't think 4-40 is far fetched at all and I absolutely believe he would have gotten significantly more than that had they not franchised him. I agree the Patriots probably won't give him that but think they are idiots for not doing so. The 2-20 is a steal for the Patriots but an absolute screwing for Welker, who can get much more than that simply by letting them tag him 2 more years, getting the tag this year and going FA next, or simply going FA this year. All of those options make him much more than the that deal does, and the only reason for him to take such an offer is to stay here, which makes no sense because he would simply be turning around and leaving two years from now.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

I don't think 4-40 is far fetched at all and I absolutely believe he would have gotten significantly more than that had they not franchised him. I agree the Patriots probably won't give him that but think they are idiots for not doing so. The 2-20 is a steal for the Patriots but an absolute screwing for Welker, who can get much more than that simply by letting them tag him 2 more years, getting the tag this year and going FA next, or simply going FA this year. All of those options make him much more than the that deal does, and the only reason for him to take such an offer is to stay here, which makes no sense because he would simply be turning around and leaving two years from now.

I see the Pats stringing him along for another two years, one at a time, and by then, the way he plays, there will be nothing left of his body. I know we've heard this before and been proven wrong, but two more years of his self-punishing style of play will be enough. He can then retire and await Canton.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The CBA requires teams tagging players to make good faith offers in their negotiations, and there is no way 2 years at 150% of the tag is a good faith offer when lesser players are getting 50 million dollar deals and 25 guaranteed. The only guaranteed money players get is the signing bonus and the Patriots blocked Welker from getting that signing bonus. They knew another team would pay him much more than they were offering and used the tag to block that from happening, and that's an abuse of the franchise tag. On the other hand the same cannot be said of the Mankins negotiations and tag because while Mankins didn't like the offer it was well within the realm of good faith.

For the record, that's not what the CBA requires.

A Club extending a Required Tender must, for so long as that Tender is extended, have a good faith intention to employ the player receiving the Tender at the Tender compensation level during the upcoming season.

There is no requirement whatsoever that the team make a good faith effort to sign the player to an extension. [In fact, the third time a player is franchised, the CBA expressly prohibits teams from negotiating a new contract while that tender is in force.]

After all, a large part of the creation of the franchise tag was that the NFLPA allowed teams to hold a small number of players hostage so that everyone else could reach FA two years earlier.

 

[Huckleberry1]

For the record, that's not what the CBA requires.



There is no requirement whatsoever that the team make a good faith effort to sign the player to an extension. [In fact, the third time a player is franchised, the CBA expressly prohibits teams from negotiating a new contract while that tender is in force.]

After all, a large part of the creation of the franchise tag was that the NFLPA allowed teams to hold a small number of players hostage so that everyone else could reach FA two years earlier.

This really surprising to me CT because Mo quoted the CBA earlier this year and I was certain it required a good faith bargaining effort and that was the point he was making at that time, although he didn't agree with me that Welker should contest it. If this is all that is required then the players completely screwed up in allowing teams to continue using the tag because this allows teams simply to use the tag to block players from getting fair market deals, which is what the Patriots did to Welker. If this is the only requirement then the Patriots met that low bar because they definitely planned on using him this year, but their offer still reflected no desire at all to get a real deal done because their offer was dogsh.t. If you are right and that is the only requirement then welker won't be able to contest future tags but neither should he take any offer the Patriots make unless they come up to what he's actually worth and not just what they want to pay him.

 

[Huckleberry1]

After all, a large part of the creation of the franchise tag was that the NFLPA allowed teams to hold a small number of players hostage so that everyone else could reach FA two years earlier.

I have always been of the belief that the Franchise Tag was intended to allow teams time to re-sign their best and most important players to long term deals, and not simply to prevent them from hitting the free market. I have always supported the tags because i thought that was their utility but if they were simply meant to allow teams to screw their best players then I think they suck and the players should never have allowed the owners that option. Ultimately that's the players mistake for allowing the tags in the CBA and that's the way it goes and welker is paying a big price for it.