This year, I officially ignore WRs

[patchick]

College wide receivers are notoriously difficult to evaluate. Too much depends on the QB and the system. WR has the lowest hit rate of any position in the high rounds. And last year was a perfect example.

Only one rookie receiver even made it onto NFL.com's top-30 receiving yards chart--Colston, a 7th rounder. Meanwhile anybody who hung out on this board before the draft got an earful of Mike Hass, Maurice Stovall and Jason Avant. Guess what? Those three players combined to equal the 2006 production of...Chad Jackson.

Could the Patriots use a young stud WR? You bet. Can they find one? Flip a coin: heads Deion Branch, tails Bethel Johnson. And I surely don't know any better than they do. So this year I'm saving some precious time by not thinking about WRs at all. Ah,feels good.

Off to review some linebacker measurables!

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm pretty sure that Terry Glenn made it into the Top 30 as a rookie WR. And I am pretty sure that Anquan Boldin did.

Hank Baskett was another player talked about quite a bit. And Baskett had a very good season.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Off to review some linebacker measurables!

Ignore them as much as you like, history tells us we're much more likely to draft a WR on the first day than a LB . . . so I'd head off to check out the WR if I were you.

 

[Seymour93]

I'm pretty sure that Terry Glenn made it into the Top 30 as a rookie WR. And I am pretty sure that Anquan Boldin did.

Hank Baskett was another player talked about quite a bit. And Baskett had a very good season.

Greg Jennings also had a solid season for the Packers.

 

[patsfan55]

Greg Jennings also had a solid season for the Packers.

stop tormenting me
i prayed for him
and look what happened
he goes with our pick
but to the pack
and has a solid yr
woulda been much better if he hadnt gotten hurt
look at how his numbers dipped after the ankle injury

in order of games:
1 catch 5 yards
6 rec 67 yds 1td (long of 23)
3-101-1td (75)
5-86 (30)
5-105-1td (46)
1-14 (injured in this game)
didnt play next
5-69 (25)
3-38 (14)
1-26 (vs Pats)
6-50 (17)
2-14 (7)
5-50 (17)
1-5
1-2
didnt play last game?
he didnt score a td after he got hurt
in weeks 2-5 he had 67 or more yds each week, after the injury he only went over that mark once
he still finished with respectable rookie numbers of 45 rec-632 yds-3tds

man i wish we had gotten him

 

[bosfan]

Think WR is a lower priority this year and any additions will be a FA or lower draft pick. If we get another 3rd as J.Kraft speculated in Felgers interview we might go after one on day one depending on what is available.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Think WR is a lower priority this year

Our WR are in worse shape now than any year since 2002 (Branch didn't really turn it on until 2003). Caldwell and Gaffney are OK. For their price they're great value but they're run of the mill WR. Jackson, we're hoping for. Other than an aging Troy, that's it. Unless we sign a good vet FA I fully expect a Day One WR.

 

[patchick]

Hank Baskett was another player talked about quite a bit. And Baskett had a very good season.

Greg Jennings also had a solid season for the Packers.

But guys, this is exactly my point! 32 WRs were drafted in 2006. The 3 who looked best in their rookie years: a 2nd-rounder (Jennings), a 7th-rounder (Colston) and a UDFA (Baskett). You might as well throw darts at a wall!

Ignore them as much as you like, history tells us we're much more likely to draft a WR on the first day than a LB . . . so I'd head off to check out the WR if I were you.

Oh, I'm not saying the Patriots won't draft a WR, I'm sure they will. I'm just saying that I'm not going to waste my time trying to sort the wheat from the chaff because it's too big a crapshoot. I liked 3 receivers last year, Chad Jackson, Greg Jennings, and Mike Hass. Again, looks like a virtual random sample of quality. (Yes it's way too early to say, but we have to judge rookie seasons because they're all we've got.)

I'd also argue that history tells us that it's hugely likely that the Pats will take a linebacker on day 1. Here's the history I'm looking at: the Patriots completely neglected the OL in the draft for years, particularly the interior line. It was declared the #1 rock-solid Pats tendency, don't waste high picks on any lineman other than a LT. So what did they do? Turned around and spent 2 day-1 picks on OT/OG tweeners. When you neglect a position it creates a hole to be plugged.

 

[everlong]

After Calvin Johnson this years WR class is really hard to pick. They are all flawed on some level.

Jarrett is a boom/bust type of player. He has size but not great speed. Best case he's Keyshawn, worst case Mike Williams. He scares me the most.

Bowe reminds me of Michael Clayton who's been solid for the Bucs. If he went elsewhere perhaps he would be a lot better but at this point as the #15 pick in the draft he's David Givens.

Meacham is similar to Bowe with slightly better speed, but Bowe is considered a much better blocker.

Ginn/Gonzalez are both smaller with good speed. The knock on Ginn is being able to make a catch in traffic. Both have questions about durability in at the pro level.

Rice is always injured and from what I saw isn't a great route runner.

I do not think they'll use a first rounder on one of these players but if they did I wouldn't be completely shocked either. If they go for a WR with one of their first 3 picks my guess is it'll be like last year where they trade up in the second round to grab one of these guys that slipped out of the first round.

First round my guess is CB with one pick and S or I/OLB with the other.

 

[shirtsleeve]

I totally agree with you, patchick. WR' s are a gamble at any point in the draft. I tried yelling that from the rooftops last year. The Pats could do anything at anytime in the draft, but I wont look at them either.

 

[Seymour93]

Another rookie WR who quietly had a real good year... Santonio Holmes, 49 recps for 824 yards.

 

[SamBamsFan]

It is certainly hard to pick receivers for the Pats. A little history:
'06
1) Chad Jackson
'05
none
'04
5) PK Sam
'03
2b) Bethel Johnson
'02
2) Deion Branch
7b) David Givens

These are the picks @ wr under Belichek/ Pioli. What do they have in common? With the exception of Givens (who was pick 253 in his draft and was probably drafted more as an athlete/ ST), all were amoung the fasted tested in their years combine.

 

[patchick]

I'm reviving this ollllld thread in the light of yet another year's veteran restocking of the receiving corps. I honestly believe that I'm not the only one who decided to throw in the towel on evaluating college WRs; it looks like BB/SP have too.

 

[IcyPatriot]

College wide receivers are notoriously difficult to evaluate. Too much depends on the QB and the system. WR has the lowest hit rate of any position in the high rounds.

I agree with you ... so here's what I do.
Belichick loves the 3-cone drill ... I take the fastest 3-cone
guy ... I see where ESPN rates him and I throw him in my mock ...

Harry Douglas ... 6.57 in the 3-cone.
ESPN has him ranked 15th ... expecting a 3-rd call on him. I'll throw him
in for the 4th. Not like Belichick is picking a WR anyways except for ST's.

Arman Shields ... 6.67 3-cone ESPN has him 51st ... I think we go with him.

 

[Jimke]

Strange things sometimes happen when Bill Belichick drafts.

This year the Patriots are in dire need of cornerbacks and

linebackers. If the BPA in each round is an offensive player,

I wonder how BB will react?

 

[patchick]

Just to clarify, my original post in this thread was LAST January!

You can make a strong statistical case that WR is the biggest crap shoot position in the draft, with tons of round-1 busts and late round/UDFA finds. BB has spent 3 high picks on receivers and only one of them panned out. (Yes, Jackson still has a chance, but he's halfway through his rookie contract already so it's reasonable to call him an unsuccessful pick.)

After Jackson, BB went out and stocked up with nothing but veteran WRs. Then 4 of those WRs became free agents and BB re-signed 3 of them, plus another vet from outside. I wouldn't be surprised if he's simply washed his hands of counting on the draft for receivers.

 

[lou50]

one quick ? how did we end up with the pick from San Fran?

 

[PonyExpress]

My early favorite WR prospects:

James Hardy
Bubba Caldwell
Dexter Jackson
Keenan Burton

Deep Sleepers
Darius Reynaud
Arman Shields

 

[Seymour93]

one quick ? how did we end up with the pick from San Fran?

Draft day trade last year... we had two first rounders and after picking Meriweather at #24 (previously Seattle's pick from the Deion Branch trade in the 2006 offseason), we decided to trade our #28 pick to San Francisco in return for their first rounder for the 2008 draft. Of course the NFL took away our #31 due to punishment for "Spygate" so we are left with only San Fran's #7.

 

[tombonneau]

I have a sneaking suspicion that if Deshaun Jackson slides out of the first round (entirely possible given his slight frame/build) BB might trade up for simply based on his return abilities alone.