AFC Picture

[ivanvamp]

Let's assume the Steelers beat the Chiefs tonight (shouldn't be any problem). Here are the AFC standings then:

1. Hou (8-1)
2. Bal (7-2)
3. NE (6-3)
4. Den (6-3)
5. Ind (6-3)
6. Pit (6-3)
7. Mia (4-5)
8. SD (4-5)
9. Cin (4-5)
10. Ten (4-6)

At this point, the first six teams have really separated themselves from the rest of the pack. It doesn't mean that Mia, SD, or Cin could make a move, but I would think that the top 6 are in pretty good shape for the playoffs.

It would appear that Houston, New England, and Denver have total control over their divisions. I am far less sure of Baltimore, given their injuries and the recent surge by Pittsburgh. I could see the Steelers taking that division.

The Pats have a tiebreaker edge over Denver. They still have to play Indy and Houston. They do not have the tiebreaker edge over Baltimore.

So I guess what I hope happens, and I'm trying to be realistic here, is that Pittsburgh overtakes Baltimore, thus knocking the Ravens out of a top 4 seed, and rendering their tiebreaker edge over New England moot. I also obviously hope that NE beats Houston and Indy, and plays even with Denver the rest of the way so their tiebreaker edge gives them a higher seed.

So I'm hoping for:

1. Hou, 14-2 (again, I don't see them not getting the #1 seed)
2. NE, 12-4 (tiebreaker over Den)
3. Den, 12-4 (I think they might lose one more game the rest of the way)
4. Pit, 11-5 (tiebreaker over Bal)
5. Bal, 11-5
6. Ind, 9-7

I think the winner of Pit-Bal would be a tough matchup for Hou. I think Den whips Indy, and that game, with Peyton Manning coming back to Foxboro, would make every single Pats fan really, really nervous. But at least NE would be home.

 

[Sivy]

In the nfl "lets assume this team will beat this team" usually means the team that was suppose to win, loses.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Let's assume the Steelers beat the Chiefs tonight (shouldn't be any problem). Here are the AFC standings then:

1. Hou (8-1)
2. Bal (7-2)
3. NE (6-3)
4. Den (6-3)
5. Ind (6-3)
6. Pit (6-3)
7. Mia (4-5)
8. SD (4-5)
9. Cin (4-5)
10. Ten (4-6)

At this point, the first six teams have really separated themselves from the rest of the pack. It doesn't mean that Mia, SD, or Cin could make a move, but I would think that the top 6 are in pretty good shape for the playoffs.

It would appear that Houston, New England, and Denver have total control over their divisions. I am far less sure of Baltimore, given their injuries and the recent surge by Pittsburgh. I could see the Steelers taking that division.

The Pats have a tiebreaker edge over Denver. They still have to play Indy and Houston. They do not have the tiebreaker edge over Baltimore.

So I guess what I hope happens, and I'm trying to be realistic here, is that Pittsburgh overtakes Baltimore, thus knocking the Ravens out of a top 4 seed, and rendering their tiebreaker edge over New England moot. I also obviously hope that NE beats Houston and Indy, and plays even with Denver the rest of the way so their tiebreaker edge gives them a higher seed.

So I'm hoping for:

1. Hou, 14-2 (again, I don't see them not getting the #1 seed)
2. NE, 12-4 (tiebreaker over Den)
3. Den, 12-4 (I think they might lose one more game the rest of the way)
4. Pit, 11-5 (tiebreaker over Bal)
5. Bal, 11-5
6. Ind, 9-7

I think the winner of Pit-Bal would be a tough matchup for Hou. I think Den whips Indy, and that game, with Peyton Manning coming back to Foxboro, would make every single Pats fan really, really nervous. But at least NE would be home.

Yep, the Denver-NE seeding will be key. There's a good chance that they'll be 2-3 in some order and play each other in the Divisional round. I think the home team wins that game- given our past history playing in Denver, I don't like our chances against Manning there in January. Denver has a cakewalk schedule the rest of the way, and I think the Pats need to run the table at this point, or one loss maximum.

 

[Deus Irae]

To me, the AFC seems to be a 4 team conference

Patriots
Ravens
Steelers
Texans

with a 5th team on the level below

Broncos

and then a dropoff to the rest. The Bengals should have been on the same level as the Broncos, but they've underachieved.

After that, it's a drop to

Colts
Bengals
Chargers (?)

and then another drop down to the dregs of the conference.





Just my $.02

 

[ivanvamp]

Yep, the Denver-NE seeding will be key. There's a good chance that they'll be 2-3 in some order and play each other in the Divisional round. I think the home team wins that game- given our past history playing in Denver, I don't like our chances against Manning there in January. Denver has a cakewalk schedule the rest of the way, and I think the Pats need to run the table at this point, or one loss maximum.

Of course, the Pats could easily finish with the #4 seed too. Say they finish 12-4 or 11-5 and Denver runs the table and Baltimore only loses twice more (while maintaining 1st in the AFCN). Denver would have a one-game lead over NE, and Baltimore, due to their H2H win over NE, would also finish higher.

So the Pats could be 12-4 and be the #4 seed. Which would be crazy.

 

[ivanvamp]

To me, the AFC seems to be a 4 team conference

Patriots
Ravens
Steelers
Titans

with a 5th team on the level below

Broncos

and then a dropoff to the rest. The Bengals should have been on the same level as the Broncos, but they've underachieved.

After that, it's a drop to

Colts
Bengals
Chargers (?)

and then another drop down to the dregs of the conference.





Just my $.02

I hope you meant Texans, not Titans.

 

[Haley]

To me, the AFC seems to be a 4 team conference

Patriots
Ravens
Steelers
Titans

with a 5th team on the level below

Broncos

and then a dropoff to the rest. The Bengals should have been on the same level as the Broncos, but they've underachieved.

After that, it's a drop to

Colts
Bengals
Chargers (?)

and then another drop down to the dregs of the conference.





Just my $.02

Did you mean Texans where you have Titans or do you actually count them below the Chargers/Bengals/Colts for some reason?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Still the same story with the AFC. Since 2003, no team has won the conference without Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger. I expect that trend to continue, as I think Baltimore is cooked, and I also think people overrate Matt Schaub. Schaub is a good QB, but he is nowhere close to the level of the conference guardians.

 

[Deus Irae]

I hope you meant Texans, not Titans.

Did you mean Texans where you have Titans or do you actually count them below the Chargers/Bengals/Colts for some reason?

Yes, I meant Texans. I'll edit the post.

 

[aluminum seats]

Still the same story with the AFC. Since 2003, no team has won the conference without Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger. I expect that trend to continue, as I think Baltimore is cooked, and I also think people overrate Matt Schaub. Schaub is a good QB, but he is nowhere close to the level of the conference guardians.

Exactly. In the preseason when the usual teams get thrown around (Ravens, etc.) it's fun to point out that it's the Colts/Pats/Steelers EVERY YEAR in the AFC. It's crazy (or as you say, Manning as opposed to the Colts).

 

[QB12]

Ivanvamp - very reasonable prognostication.

 

[QB12]

Still the same story with the AFC. Since 2003, no team has won the conference without Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger. I expect that trend to continue, as I think Baltimore is cooked, and I also think people overrate Matt Schaub. Schaub is a good QB, but he is nowhere close to the level of the conference guardians.

Agreed. Even though his team won last night, the game looked too big for him.

 

[BlueThunder]

The next AFCC ...


I can dream can't I :rocker:

 

[tatepatsfan]

Assuming a Steelers victory tonight (I know, any given Sunday, or Monday as the case may be, but the Steelers are playing well and the Chiefs have been terrible), I think it's pretty amazing that the top 6 AFC teams will have two full games on the best of the other 10.

I don't see anyone in our division, or anyone in the AFC West, catching us or the Broncos. It's no so much that I think that we or Peyton's crew are infallible. Just that the other teams are so flawed, or are already really out of the race (like the Bills).

I don't really see anyone in the South catching Houston. You never know, if the Colts beat us and the Texans drop a game or two, it's possible. But Houston looks class right now and their record shows it.

Agreed that the North is a tossup right now. The Ravens crushed yesterday, but I think the Steelers are going to catch them. Whoever doesn't snag the division will almost certainly grab a wild card spot.

With seven and 1/16th weeks of the season still to play, my best guess would be:

1. Houston (14-2)
2. Pats (12-4)
3. Broncos (12-4)
4. Steelers (11-5)
5. Ravens (11-5)
6. Bengals (10-6)

No disrespect to the Colts though. They are a good team and could definitely get a wild card spot. But after watching (during commercials) the way the Bengals destroyed the G-men, I've got to think that they are going to make a strong run in the second half.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Ravens will be lucky to sneak into the playoffs, and I project a 10-6 final record but wouldn't be shocked if it's 9-7. This is a very flawed team with their rash of injuries, and Joe Flacco is not going to "turn the corner."

Remaining schedule:

@ Pittsburgh
@ San Diego
vs. Pittsburgh
@ Washington
vs. Broncos
vs. NY Giants
@ Cincinnati

The way I look at it, they are not a good road team, and of Cincy, Washington, SD, and Pittsburgh, I think they'll lose 2 or 3. Although they have a big home field advantage, Pittsburgh, Denver, and the Giants... at least 1 loss and maybe 2. So, at best 11-5, at worst 9-7, both realistic.

If they can run this gauntlet losing only two games and finishing 12-4, then frankly they deserve a bye and I'm wrong.
?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The Pats are looking at a 3rd or 4th seed - it's a near certainty IMO

I think Baltimore and Houston are near locks for the bye week,despite all here that think the Ravens are in trouble,will be surprised when they win 12 games.

It may come down to Denver vs. the Pats for the 3rd seed and the Pats have the edge in tiebreakers so Denver has to have more wins to get the nod,I think the Pats finish the regular season at 11-5.

In that retrospect the 3rd seed will likely play host to Cincinnati,Miami or San Diego while the 4th seed is likely to host the Steelers who are destined for the 5th seed.

 

[brdmaverick]

It may come down to Denver vs. the Pats for the 3rd seed and the Pats have the edge in tiebreakers so Denver has to have more wins to get the nod,I think the Pats finish the regular season at 11-5.

In that retrospect the 3rd seed will likely play host to Cincinnati,Miami or San Diego while the 4th seed is likely to host the Steelers who are destined for the 5th seed.

Not jumping on the Indy bandwagon, huh?

 

[Uncle Rico]

In the nfl "lets assume this team will beat this team" usually means the team that was suppose to win, loses.

I JUST came across this graphic that shows the cycle of parity in the NFL.



From a Reddit board.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Not jumping on the Indy bandwagon, huh?

No,I do not think Indy climbs above 8-8

Its a nice story with a great looking rookie QB,but this cinderella story is losing its glass slipper shortly.

I think the Pats win rather handily this weekend