Yup. But the cat's getting out of the bag. From Dane Brugler's latest risers and faller's list:
NFL Draft Risers and Fallers - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com
The damn draft is held 6 months too early. It should be held in October. Every year we pick out guys months ahead of everyone else, and then slowly the media catches on. Few words make me gnash my teeth as much as "moving up draft boards".
The thought of of what Dante Scarnecchia could do with Kyle Long makes me ... well, I won't say it. But imagine an OT core of Solder, Vollmer and Long. Awe inspiring.
It doesn't matter when the draft is held.
I'm going to let you guys in on a secret. The media, especially Todd McShay (Kiper is okay, but not good either) has absolutely no idea what the hell it is talking about. However, actual scouts and general managers ignore the media. They find these guys just as quickly as you do. And, obviously, scouts and general managers are the only ones who make the real decisions. I recognize all of the guys you talk about as well. But I don't consider myself a member of the media. I watch 300 college football games a year. I'm a scout. The media is always slow to catch on. Even in my first year as a scout, as a 13 year old, I was months ahead of the media in calling Linval Joseph a second round pick. There is no point in keeping secrets. People who actually work for NFL teams recognize these guys as quickly or maybe even more quickly than you do. Trust me.
Absolutely. I refuse to believe that teams last year in the final weeks before the draft suddenly thought "you know that Chandler Jones and Shea McLellin, they're actually rather good". Dramatic risers and fallers according to the likes of Tony Pauline and Dane Brugler are only snippets of information they glean from their contacts within teams.
The damn draft is held 6 months too early. It should be held in October. Every year we pick out guys months ahead of everyone else, and then slowly the media catches on. Few words make me gnash my teeth as much as "moving up draft boards".
We won't get a headstart on the teams, but what we should do is combine our respective wisdoms, publish it in October and look smarter than the media does in the run up to draft day.
I don't consider myself a scout, evaluator or anything like, I'm an amateur with an unhealthy interest in the draft. Mayo and Merrill and others are probably the same. Mackenzie is different because he gets work (paid or otherwise) for his scouting. Now i apologise to others who have contributed but just combining some of mine, Merrill's and Mayo's collective "wisdom", let's see what we've come up with:
Merrill and I both
heavily touted Mark Barron last year when the media were still talking of him as a second rounder or late first at best.
Merrill and Mayo are strong advocates of Dion Jordan when media outlets had him in the 2nd-3rd range. He's getting more and more talk as a mid to high first rounder.
Mayo is very high on Jesse Williams. CBS have moved him from mid-second to mid first.
I talked about Alec Ogletree and Sheldon Richardson weeks ago. It's only now that they're being talked of as mid-first rounders.
I was very high on Mychal Kendricks last year. so was OTG and Mayo. His value skyrocketed into the 2nd round.
We'' probably see much of the same this year. Mayo and I have been talking about Carradine for a while now, he's moving north. Mayo and Merrill have been on Kyle Long long before Dane Brugler published anything. Markus Wheaton is getting increased chatter and will likely move north.
The point is not that we are genius scouts although I think we have some small abilities in that area, the point is that we put some effort in. I'm not saying we are the first to recognise these people but we do seem to be ahead of the curve on a lot of big risers (not all mind). I do think however that we tend to benefit from a lack of accountability and a scatter shot effect. We don't have professional reputations on the line so it's easier to nail our mast to a particular favourite prospect with a lower confidence level than professional writers. Secondly, and I know I'm guilty of this, the more prospects you highlight, the greater the chance you'll hit on someone.
Anyway, that's my "haven't slept for 24 hours" analysis for what it's worth.
NB - I tried to be fair in the above list but probably over highlighted my own successes. That's just familiarity talking, not an effort to sell my own successes.
