Kiper's senior bowl run down

[cstjohn17]

Good stuff, I better set my DVR for the senior bowl... last football game I will watch this year.

I am not in favor of a 2 for 1 to move up, I would do the reverse (a #1 for a 2nd and 3rd) but only move up if the player is a lock pro bowl player. I may be wrong but in the new CBA players in round 1 can only be signed for a max of 5years, players not in round 1 can only be signed for a max of 4 years. This really limits the value of drafts picks because you just get them going and then they are gone... but it is still the best league in the world, so can't complain.

I am intrigued by Carriker, he seems like a natural 3-4 end. I know DL is one of our strengths but it is also a position where people get banged up and the idea of a viable DL rotation helps keep players fresh and healthy. I don't think he will drop to 24 (the Jets will likely take him) but if he is on the board this pick would not shock or offend me.

Wright - ILB - I just don't see it, he runs very well from a big man but is mostly straight ahead, he would be asked to drop 30-40 pounds at least and learn a new position. Seems like a real reach, why not just bring in a real LB instead of the pretend LBs like Klecko, Beisel, etc.

WRs - I like the talent that will be there at the top of round 1, at pick 28 we may have a shot at Bowe, Meachem or Rice and it is not crazy to think that players like Jarrett or Ginn fall to 24. Not all these players are great fits for our offense but are improvements over anyone on our roster. I may be in the manority but I think our WRs should be improved and I am really unsure how Chad Jackson will end up.

Again nice job, interested to see your report after the Senior Bowl...

I'm just getting started in researching draft prospects and thinking about the current team make-up, so consider these thoughts a pre-season trial run...

I've been watching the Senior Bowl practices and that is the biggest influence on my prospect ponderings. Looking at the list I edited out of your post:

I would consider moving into 11-16 for Levi Brown or Adam Carriker.
- Levi looks to he an upgrade over Light (remember I'm a Light fan, I'm trying to be objective in my analysis) and with a 6 year contract, would be a value selection as BPA.
- Carriker looks to be competitive with Jarvis Green and Mike Wright, and an upgrade over Hill. For those still sensitive with the Klecko ILB experiment, stop here. Carriker and the development of Smith at NT, would allow Wright to be tested as a two-down run stuffing ILB. He's proven himself on the KO coverage unit, as well as a wedge member on KRs. He has long arms (Klecko's biggest problem at ILB to my thinking, he lost his quickness advantage off the snap playing back 3-5 yds where the OG's could get their longer arms on him first) and the strength to take on and defeat an OG at the point of attack. Carriker looks to have a better pass rush than Wright, and seems to have the natural strength needed for a two-gap defender.

Hall and Ross appear to be the two most well-rounded CB prospects, if one fell to me great, but I don't think moving up for them gets the same value as Brown and Carriker provide. Hughs was the CB who caught my eye at the Senior Bowl, he reminded me of Asante with his reaction/closing burst. He probably wouldn't start the season, but he'd develop well behind Scott, Gay, & Mickens and could possibly win the start mid-season. I also like the potential for Tanard Jackson, even though he isn't experienced in man coverage. Josh Wilson from Maryland also showed me some quicks and toughness that could be developed.

Staley or Ugoh as 2nd round OT depth consolation prizes don't appear to be upgrades for the OTs and would probably be bypassed for other position upgrades. Abiamiri, Willis, J. Moore, B. Siler all are interesting LB/LB conversion projects - though Willis and Siler are borderline size wise. Spencer is dropping in my mind, I thought he looked intriguing in an early game I watched, but he seemed to disappear as the season wore on, and he hasn't looked that impressive in the Senior Bowl practices.

There isn't a WR I'd want with a potential first round grade, though Gonzalez (Ohio State) looks to be a quick twitch/excellent route runner when I saw him early, I'd consider a flyer in round 2.

Leonard's value would seem to be late round 2, early round 3 - him I want.

If Okoye fell to #24 (assuming BB isn't wheeling and dealing this draft), he'd be an intriguing prospect to challenge Smith and Wright behind Wilfork. Romo's butterfingers really made this draft more challenging.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I am not in favor of a 2 for 1 to move up, I would do the reverse (a #1 for a 2nd and 3rd) but only move up if the player is a lock pro bowl player. I may be wrong but in the new CBA players in round 1 can only be signed for a max of 5years, players not in round 1 can only be signed for a max of 4 years. This really limits the value of drafts picks because you just get them going and then they are gone... but it is still the best league in the world, so can't complain.

Per CBA: 1-16 may be signed for 6 years. 17-32 may be signed for 5 years. All subsequent rounds are maxed out at 4 years.

That extra year makes 11-16 look more attractive for the right player, which at the moment look like Levi Brown and Adam Carriker because of the critical positions they could fill.

I'm not afraid to test Wright as a two-down ILB, unlike Klecko, he has a position to return to; I wouldn't have him lose weight until we see how he reacts to working in space.

 

[cstjohn17]

Per CBA: 1-16 may be signed for 6 years. 17-32 may be signed for 5 years. All subsequent rounds are maxed out at 4 years.

That extra year makes 11-16 look more attractive for the right player, which at the moment look like Levi Brown and Adam Carriker because of the critical positions they could fill.

I'm not afraid to test Wright as a two-down ILB, unlike Klecko, he has a position to return to; I wouldn't have him lose weight until we see how he reacts to working in space.

Touche, my bad. Maybe trading into the top 10-15 makes more sense. In the top 5 the salaries are so high it is not such a good value. I have not focused on the top 15 players, time to re-focus.

 

[Seneschal2]

I would consider moving into 11-16 for Levi Brown or Adam Carriker.

That's a giant leap for anyone -- too expensive. Also not interested in Levi -- but would nab Carriker if he slid.

Carriker looks to be competitive with Jarvis Green and Mike Wright, and an upgrade over Hill.

Carriker was a consideration before the Senior Bowl. But after his solid week of practices there, he's now made my list of potential BPAs in round one. Thought being, he'd be a full-sized replacement or upgrade for Hill. Not the position I'm hoping for...but that won't stop BB.

Wright to be tested as a two-down run stuffing ILB.

Problem with this scenario is, it's your idea...BB won't tell...and we want to know.

Hall and Ross appear to be the two most well-rounded CB prospects...

And maybe not the ones we want -- we don't really know which CB or Safety BB covets...which makes it all the more interesting (for me at least).

Hughes was the CB who caught my eye at the Senior Bowl, he reminded me of Asante with his reaction/closing burst. He probably wouldn't start the season, but he'd develop well behind Scott, Gay, & Mickens and could possibly win the start mid-season. I also like the potential for Tanard Jackson, even though he isn't experienced in man coverage. Josh Wilson from Maryland also showed me some quicks and toughness that could be developed.

Hughes is on my short list of R1 CBs primarily because of his 'ball skills'. I know his speed has been questioned, but Law and Samuel weren't fast 40 guys coming out either. All of them have enough speed to play the position...and most of all -- they're playmakers. Jackson and Wilson are good.

Staley or Ugoh as 2nd round OT depth consolation prizes don't appear to be upgrades for the OTs and would probably be bypassed for other position upgrades.

Big fan of Staley -- possible BPA.

Abiamiri, Willis, J. Moore, B. Siler all are interesting LB/LB conversion projects - though Willis and Siler are borderline size wise. Spencer is dropping in my mind, I thought he looked intriguing in an early game I watched, but he seemed to disappear as the season wore on, and he hasn't looked that impressive in the Senior Bowl practices.

Those three made my early Pats Prospects list.

There isn't a WR I'd want with a potential first round grade, though Gonzalez (Ohio State) looks to be a quick twitch/excellent route runner when I saw him early, I'd consider a flyer in round 2.

He's one of three I really like.

Leonard's value would seem to be late round 2, early round 3 - him I want.

Classic BB-type player.

If Okoye fell to #24 (assuming BB isn't wheeling and dealing this draft), he'd be an intriguing prospect to challenge Smith and Wright behind Wilfork. Romo's butterfingers really made this draft more challenging.

A real youngster.

 

[The Gr8est]

That's what makes this draft difficult to predict - because I do agree with you. And I think a vet like London Fletcher is more likely than Willis.

What's Belichick drafted in the first round here ?

DL
TE
DL
DL
TE
OL
RB

Our needs are WR, S, CB, LB. I don't see those on the list So who knows.

I don't think BB has a problem with a CB in the 1st round. The Pats were reportedly ready to take Eugene Wilson in the 1st if they were unable to trade down. When Baltimore got the hots for Kyle Boller, we got the deal we wanted and still got our guy.

BB/SP gambled that he would be there in the 2nd and he was, with a small trade up.

 

[cstjohn17]

Per CBA: 1-16 may be signed for 6 years. 17-32 may be signed for 5 years. All subsequent rounds are maxed out at 4 years.

That extra year makes 11-16 look more attractive for the right player, which at the moment look like Levi Brown and Adam Carriker because of the critical positions they could fill.

This is very, very interesting. I have been thinking about it a lot, too much....

Based on this value chart, we have 1400 points from our 2 first round picks.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/tradechart.php

Pick 24 - 760
Pick 28 - 660

In theory we could move all the way up to #8 in a straight across.

Although there are a lot roster spots to fill it is not out of the question for the Patriots to trade up. I have mentioned the idea of trading back (a 1st for two 2nds, etc.) but the length of contract 4 year versus 5 years seems to make the round 1 picks more valuable. The six year contacts for the top 16 are even more interesting.

I don't know what they will do, but a couple of scenarios.

Scenario 1 - If a top player (potential pro bowl player) such as Thomas, Johnson slips to the 6- 10 range or they are really sold on other top players like Gaines Adams, Alain Branch the 6 year term may make a move tempting. Can you imagine (dream with me) that we somehow get a future all pro LT (Joe Thomas) or WR (Calvin Johnson)? wow... Hell lets even through Adrian Peterson's name into the mix. You can never have enough RBs..

Scenario 2 - Team is high on a player in the 10-15 range and makes a move. Example shows a trade with Carolina for the #14.
Pats trade - 2 first rounders, #24 & #28
Receive - a 1st # 14, a 3rd # 78, and a 4th # 110

On paper we lose 26 points (equal to a high 6th round pick) but they would obtain the player they want at 14 (signed for 6 years), an extra day 1 pick and an extra day 2 pick. With all the picks they could move around the board to get players they want or trade for 2008 picks.

Potential Players in this scenario - Levi Brown (as mentioned by Box_O_Rocks), Lavon Landry, Reggie Nelson, Ginn, Jarrett maybe Branch slips, Jamaal Anderson, etc.

Just when I thought I couldn't get any more excited about the draft... A lot to think about...

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I don't think BB has a problem with a CB in the 1st round. The Pats were reportedly ready to take Eugene Wilson in the 1st if they were unable to trade down. When Baltimore got the hots for Kyle Boller, we got the deal we wanted and still got our guy.

BB/SP gambled that he would be there in the 2nd and he was, with a small trade up.

I also think Belichick would have no problem taking a CB in round 1 - no problem at all. However in 7 first round picks he still hasn't. In fact every #1 pick has been a "middle of the field" player.

Front to back, Inside to out. And then look at what we've drafted. Not conclusive - but interesting.

 

[Water Boy]

Re: D Bowe

Kiper has him in the elite part of the first round. He has really shot up the draft board. I was under the impression he only ran a 4.55 to a 4.6. That's very slow for a first round WR.

Maybe Anquan Boldin taught the scouts a lesson about 40 yrd times.

 

[Water Boy]

This is very, very interesting. I have been thinking about it a lot, too much....

Based on this value chart, we have 1400 points from our 2 first round picks.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/tradechart.php

Pick 24 - 760
Pick 28 - 660

In theory we could move all the way up to #8 in a straight across.

Although there are a lot roster spots to fill it is not out of the question for the Patriots to trade up. I have mentioned the idea of trading back (a 1st for two 2nds, etc.) but the length of contract 4 year versus 5 years seems to make the round 1 picks more valuable. The six year contacts for the top 16 are even more interesting.

I don't know what they will do, but a couple of scenarios.

Scenario 1 - If a top player (potential pro bowl player) such as Thomas, Johnson slips to the 6- 10 range or they are really sold on other top players like Gaines Adams, Alain Branch the 6 year term may make a move tempting. Can you imagine (dream with me) that we somehow get a future all pro LT (Joe Thomas) or WR (Calvin Johnson)? wow... Hell lets even through Adrian Peterson's name into the mix. You can never have enough RBs..

Scenario 2 - Team is high on a player in the 10-15 range and makes a move. Example shows a trade with Carolina for the #14.
Pats trade - 2 first rounders, #24 & #28
Receive - a 1st # 14, a 3rd # 78, and a 4th # 110

On paper we lose 26 points (equal to a high 6th round pick) but they would obtain the player they want at 14 (signed for 6 years), an extra day 1 pick and an extra day 2 pick. With all the picks they could move around the board to get players they want or trade for 2008 picks.

Potential Players in this scenario - Levi Brown (as mentioned by Box_O_Rocks), Lavon Landry, Reggie Nelson, Ginn, Jarrett maybe Branch slips, Jamaal Anderson, etc.

Just when I thought I couldn't get any more excited about the draft... A lot to think about...

I can't see the Pats being willing to trade away two first rounders for 1. I can envision them trading a later round pick to move up from No. 24, then trading away No. 28 for a 2nd rounder and additional picks.

 

[everlong]

It would be interesting to see how the Pats rate Bowe vs Michael Clayton another LSU guy who went 15th to the Bucs in 04. They have similar height and body types and I know the Pats really liked Clayton. His numbers in the pros haven't been outstanding but Tampa's offense is a mess so I don't think that's his fault.

One thing about Clayton he was a team leader with all the intangibles the Pats love, smart, good routes, team guy, football before all else... I haven't heard a lot on Bowe regarding those things.

 

[everlong]

I can't see the Pats being willing to trade away two first rounders for 1. I can envision them trading a later round pick to move up from No. 24, then trading away No. 28 for a 2nd rounder and additional picks.

I agree.

I could see them trading a first and third (they did for Graham) to move up from 24 to 17-20 for a guy who they feel is a mega-value. If they had 5 guys on their value chart as good value for 24 they'll probably sit tight but if there was only one and they saw somebody beating them to the punch (like GB with Graham) they would do it.

Value chart points

24th = 740
92(3rd) = 132

872

17 950
18 900
19 875
20 850

17/18 would take another second day pick but we should have a lot of picks, far too many for all of them to make the roster.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

This is very, very interesting. I have been thinking about it a lot, too much....

Based on this value chart, we have 1400 points from our 2 first round picks.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/tradechart.php

Pick 24 - 760
Pick 28 - 660

In theory we could move all the way up to #8 in a straight across.

Although there are a lot roster spots to fill it is not out of the question for the Patriots to trade up. I have mentioned the idea of trading back (a 1st for two 2nds, etc.) but the length of contract 4 year versus 5 years seems to make the round 1 picks more valuable. The six year contacts for the top 16 are even more interesting.

I don't know what they will do, but a couple of scenarios.

Scenario 1 - If a top player (potential pro bowl player) such as Thomas, Johnson slips to the 6- 10 range or they are really sold on other top players like Gaines Adams, Alain Branch the 6 year term may make a move tempting. Can you imagine (dream with me) that we somehow get a future all pro LT (Joe Thomas) or WR (Calvin Johnson)? wow... Hell lets even through Adrian Peterson's name into the mix. You can never have enough RBs..

The one really interesting thing to think about here is that Washington, has the #6 pick in the draft, and then do not have another pick until the 6th pick in the fifth round (@ 150). So they could be looking to trade down. As much as this goes against everything I've ever said about WR. If Calvin Johnson is still on the board at #6, the Pats would have to think about making the trade up to grab him. You have to remember this guy has put up great numbers with Reggie Ball as his QB! He has the speed, height, hands, and is a solid charecter guy, and not a prima dona WR.