Kiper's senior bowl run down

[PonyExpress]

Here is a run down of the impact talent at the Senior Bowl, according to Kiper, and where they will be drafted:

Sure fire 1st rdrs

Leon Hall (mid rd 1)
Levi Brown (mid rd 1)
A. Okoye (mid rd 1)
A. Carriker (mid rd 1)
D. Bowe (mid rd 1)
A. Ross (mid to late rd 1)

Borderline 1st rdrs

Dameion Hughes (late 1st rd)
Anthony Spencer (late rd 1 to mid rd 2)
L. Woodley (late rd 1 to mid rd 2)
R. Kalil (late rd 1 early rd 2)
B. Grubbs (late rd 1 early rd 2)
T. Tyler (late rd 1 early rd 2)
J. Staley (late rd 1 early rd 2)
A. Sears (late rd 1 early rd 2)
T. Ugoh (late rd 1-2)
T. Crowder (late rd 1-2)

Sure fire 2nd rdrs

M. Crosby (2nd rdr)
B. Leonard (2)
Tanard Jackson (2)
S. Satele (2)
Abiamiri (2)
K. Irons (2)
Willis (2)
J. Blalock (2)
Q. Moses (2)

Borderline 2nd rdrs

M. McCauley (2-3)
J. Moore (2-3)
Mebane (2-3)
M. Griffin (2-3)
R. McBean (2-3)



Here, IMO, are the underclassman who are sure fire 1st rdrs:

1. C. Johnson
2. J. Russell
3. A. Peterson
4. A. Branch
5. D. Revis
6. Jamaal Anderson
7. Ted Ginn
8. M. Lynch
9. R. Nelson
10. D. Jarrett
11. Lawrence Timmons
12. J. Moss

Borderline underclassman 1st rdrs
1. S. Rice
2. C. Houston
3. R. Meachem
4. B. Siler
5. Charles Johnson
6. Z. Miller
7. G. Olsen

So the elite talent pool is comprised of 22 players:

1. B. Quinn
2. J. Thomas
3. C. Johnson
4. J. Russell
5. A. Peterson
6. A. Branch
7. G. Adams
8. D. Revis
9. Jamaal Anderson
10. Ted Ginn
11. M. Lynch
12. R. Nelson
13. L. Landry
14. D. Jarrett
15. Lawrence Timmons
16. J. Moss
17. Leon Hall
18. Levi Brown
19. A. Okoye
20. A. Carriker
21. D. Bowe
22. A. Ross

With the Pats at #24 and #28, the Pats will hope that someone slips through, but more likely will have to choose from this borderline 1st rd talent pool of 17 players:

Dameion Hughes
Anthony Spencer
L. Woodley
R. Kalil
B. Grubbs
T. Tyler
J. Staley
A. Sears
T. Ugoh
T. Crowder
S. Rice
C. Houston
R. Meachem
B. Siler
Charles Johnson
Z. Miller
G. Olsen

Of those 17, I would consider these at #24 and #28:
1. Anthony Spencer, OLB
2. Dameion Hughes, CB
3. J. Staley, LT
4. R. Meachem, WR
5. B. Siler, ILB

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

What about Merriweather, has he just disappeared off the face of the earth ?

 

[PonyExpress]

What about Merriweather, has he just disappeared off the face of the earth ?

Rd 3 or 4 according to Kiper... I'm sure his onfield exploits (!!!) are a factor.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Rd 3 or 4 according to Kiper... I'm sure his onfield exploits (!!!) are a factor.

That's sick, I'm just starting to look at Kiper's stuff now.

The Safety thing is confusing, in the past they would always slip. But more teams are looking for a CB quality cover guy at Safety and last year we had Huff and Whitner both go in the top fifteen. I can't get a feel for where Merriweather and Griffin are going. I assume Nelson and Landry are gone at #24, after that I don't have a good feel.

 

[everlong]

Borderline 2nd rdrs

M. McCauley (2-3)
J. Moore (2-3)
Mebane (2-3)
M. Griffin (2-3)
R. McBean (2-3)

I had been saying we could probably get Griffin round 2, not that Mel is always right.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Looking at his rankings now, I would have a draft of :

Round 1 - Aaron Ross
Round 1 - Patrick Willis
Round 2 - Michael Griffin
Round 3 - Brandon Merriweather
Round 4 - David Harris

I get my CB to replace Samuel who I franchise and trade for future picks. ILB to pair with Bruschi and Harris for the year after. Two Safeties for 2008.

And don't laugh, Kiper's round rankings have this doable.

 

[PonyExpress]

Looking at his rankings now, I would have a draft of :

Round 1 - Aaron Ross
Round 1 - Patrick Willis
Round 2 - Michael Griffin
Round 3 - Brandon Merriweather
Round 4 - David Harris

I get my CB to replace Samuel who I franchise and trade for future picks. ILB to pair with Bruschi and Harris for the year after. Two Safeties for 2008.

And don't laugh, Kiper's round rankings have this doable.

If we came out with that, I would be ecstatic, although I'm not as high on Griffin... they say he played injured this year (aren't safeties always playing injured?). Also, Harris' Michigan team captain pedigree and thumping style will land him in rd 3 probably...

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I'm not a huge Griffin fan but no complaints getting him near the end of round 2.

 

[cstjohn17]

So the elite talent pool is comprised of 22 players:

1. B. Quinn
2. J. Thomas
3. C. Johnson
4. J. Russell
5. A. Peterson
6. A. Branch
7. G. Adams
8. D. Revis
9. Jamaal Anderson
10. Ted Ginn
11. M. Lynch
12. R. Nelson
13. L. Landry
14. D. Jarrett
15. Lawrence Timmons
16. J. Moss
17. Leon Hall
18. Levi Brown
19. A. Okoye
20. A. Carriker
21. D. Bowe
22. A. Ross

With the Pats at #24 and #28, the Pats will hope that someone slips through, but more likely will have to choose from this borderline 1st rd talent pool of 17 players:

Dameion Hughes
Anthony Spencer
L. Woodley
R. Kalil
B. Grubbs
T. Tyler
J. Staley
A. Sears
T. Ugoh
T. Crowder
S. Rice
C. Houston
R. Meachem
B. Siler
Charles Johnson
Z. Miller
G. Olsen

Of those 17, I would consider these at #24 and #28:
1. Anthony Spencer, OLB
2. Dameion Hughes, CB
3. J. Staley, LT
4. R. Meachem, WR
5. B. Siler, ILB

If that is the case and we do not get one of the elite 22 I would try to trade out of the first round and get multiple picks in the 2nd and 3rd or try for a higher #1 in 2008. My feeling is that each year there are 15-20 elite players and then not much difference between 25-60. The 2nd round picks are like gold, nothing against Chad Jackson but trading a 2 for 1 (2nd and 3rd) for any player seemed too steep a price. If we could end up with the following picks we can use some late rounders as ammo to move around to get the players we like. Imagine the damage we could do on day 1 with these picks.

1 -24
1- 28 (trade for a 2nd and a 3rd)

2 - pick 40-50 (via trade)
2- 60
3 - pick 65-75 (via trade)
3 - pick 92

Gives us 5 picks on day 1, 5 of the top 100 players in the draft.

 

[PonyExpress]

If that is the case and we do not get one of the elite 22 I would try to trade out of the first round and get multiple picks in the 2nd and 3rd or try for a higher #1 in 2008. My feeling is that each year there are 15-20 elite players and then not much difference between 25-60. The 2nd round picks are like gold, nothing against Chad Jackson but trading a 2 for 1 (2nd and 3rd) for any player seemed too steep a price. If we could end up with the following picks we can use some late rounders as ammo to move around to get the players we like. Imagine the damage we could do on day 1 with these picks.

1 -24
1- 28 (trade for a 2nd and a 3rd)

2 - pick 40-50 (via trade)
2- 60
3 - pick 65-75 (via trade)
3 - pick 92

Gives us 5 picks on day 1, 5 of the top 100 players in the draft.

Devil's advocate: 1st rdrs are signed for 5 years, 2nd rdrs for 4. An argument can be made it would be preferable to have 2 good players signed for 5 years, to create roster stability with the upper end talent. I see Brady playing for another 5 seasons, which is our window of opportunity, whether BB stays or goes, so planning 5 years out is still a consideration.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

D Bowe

Kiper has him in the elite part of the first round. He has really shot up the draft board. I was under the impression he only ran a 4.55 to a 4.6. That's very slow for a first round WR.

 

[Seneschal2]

Of those 17, I would consider these at #24 and #28:
1. Anthony Spencer, OLB
2. Dameion Hughes, CB
3. J. Staley, LT
4. R. Meachem, WR
5. B. Siler, ILB

I like your logic. Those 5 are still on my Pats Prospects list (before all the weeding out). Now we know why it's important to look beyond round one for a Safety...just in case what's above becomes the actual scenario.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Of those 17, I would consider these at #24 and #28:
1. Anthony Spencer, OLB
2. Dameion Hughes, CB
3. J. Staley, LT
4. R. Meachem, WR
5. B. Siler, ILB

The only thing I don't like about this is Spencer. I do like him and an OLB is of interest to me but I'm much more interested in Willis or a DB at that point. Maybe the right Safety isn't there and what's left would be overvalued, I might trade down then. But I'd take Willis over Spencer - we need an ILB in 2008 and likely in 2007 (at least rotationally) whereas at OLB with Vrabel and Colvin we just need a TBC type to spell them. Again, I like Spencer he just wouldn't be my optimal choice there.

 

[PonyExpress]

The only thing I don't like about this is Spencer. I do like him and an OLB is of interest to me but I'm much more interested in Willis or a DB at that point. Maybe the right Safety isn't there and what's left would be overvalued, I might trade down then. But I'd take Willis over Spencer - we need an ILB in 2008 and likely in 2007 (at least rotationally) whereas at OLB with Vrabel and Colvin we just need a TBC type to spell them. Again, I like Spencer he just wouldn't be my optimal choice there.

Not disagreeing. But... I believe BB values veteran savvy over athleticism at ILB. There is ample evidence of that. So I feel it is likely the team will use Free agency to create depth at ILB, though I still hope and believe they will supplement it with young 1st day talent. At OLB, you cannot really compensate for pure physical talent, and signing quality free agent pass rushers is prohibitively expensive. You really have to attack the position in the draft to create value. And you can only really guarantee yourself an athletic specimen at OLB in rd 1-2. In the same way BB will usually draft big bodies and TEs over skill position players in rd 1, I see him more likely to go OLB than ILB... but there are no hard and fast rules. Who we really need to draft is THE FUTURE DEFENSIVE CAPTAIN of the Pats, whatever position that may be. Bruschi's on field play will not justify that tag for much longer. He was being isolated and exploited every game in the playoffs, much as we respect him.

 

[everlong]

And you can only really guarantee yourself an athletic specimen at OLB in rd 1-2.

Colvin 4th round, Vrabel 3rd round, Briggs 3rd round, Thomas 6th round.....

I know what you're saying but the 3-4 tweeners are there and a good value to be found in the later rounds.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Not disagreeing. But... I believe BB values veteran savvy over athleticism at ILB. There is ample evidence of that. So I feel it is likely the team will use Free agency to create depth at ILB

That's what makes this draft difficult to predict - because I do agree with you. And I think a vet like London Fletcher is more likely than Willis.

What's Belichick drafted in the first round here ?

DL
TE
DL
DL
TE
OL
RB

Our needs are WR, S, CB, LB. I don't see those on the list So who knows.

 

[PonyExpress]

Colvin 4th round, Vrabel 3rd round, Briggs 3rd round, Thomas 6th round.....

I know what you're saying but the 3-4 tweeners are there and a good value to be found in the later rounds.

Briggs is an ILB in the Pats' scheme. He is not the kind of player I'm talking about. I'm talking about 3-4 OLBs who can set the edge, drop in coverage, and also be big time pass rushers. If you plan on stealing one in rd 4, good luck. To borrow a term from TheHuddleReport.com, it's about length to impact. A rd 1 player should impact within the 1st 2 years. Colvin, Vrabel and Thomas weren't ready to start at OLB in a 3-4 until their second team (Vrabel, Colvin) and 5th season in the league (Thomas).

 

[everlong]

Briggs would move inside you're right but he'd be an interesting player in this system because imagine him and Vrabel on the same side. They could almost trade off and give the offense that much more to think about. Same with Thomas really, he could play all 4 LB slots.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

In the "pro OLB" column is that fact that Colvin is still the most expensive FA signing Belichick has made. Although we haven't drafted any, Belichick has invested more heavily in an OLB than at any other position (other than re-signings of Seymour and Brady).

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Leon Hall (mid rd 1)
Levi Brown (mid rd 1)
A. Okoye (mid rd 1)
A. Carriker (mid rd 1)
A. Ross (mid to late rd 1)
Dameion Hughes (late 1st rd)
J. Staley (late rd 1 early rd 2)
T. Ugoh (late rd 1-2)
B. Leonard (2)
Tanard Jackson (2)
Abiamiri (2)
Willis (2)
J. Moore (2-3)
4. B. Siler

With the Pats at #24 and #28, the Pats will hope that someone slips...I would consider these at #24 and #28:
1. Anthony Spencer, OLB
2. Dameion Hughes, CB
3. J. Staley, LT
4. R. Meachem, WR
5. B. Siler, ILB

I'm just getting started in researching draft prospects and thinking about the current team make-up, so consider these thoughts a pre-season trial run...

I've been watching the Senior Bowl practices and that is the biggest influence on my prospect ponderings. Looking at the list I edited out of your post:

I would consider moving into 11-16 for Levi Brown or Adam Carriker.
- Levi looks to he an upgrade over Light (remember I'm a Light fan, I'm trying to be objective in my analysis) and with a 6 year contract, would be a value selection as BPA.
- Carriker looks to be competitive with Jarvis Green and Mike Wright, and an upgrade over Hill. For those still sensitive with the Klecko ILB experiment, stop here. Carriker and the development of Smith at NT, would allow Wright to be tested as a two-down run stuffing ILB. He's proven himself on the KO coverage unit, as well as a wedge member on KRs. He has long arms (Klecko's biggest problem at ILB to my thinking, he lost his quickness advantage off the snap playing back 3-5 yds where the OG's could get their longer arms on him first) and the strength to take on and defeat an OG at the point of attack. Carriker looks to have a better pass rush than Wright, and seems to have the natural strength needed for a two-gap defender.

Hall and Ross appear to be the two most well-rounded CB prospects, if one fell to me great, but I don't think moving up for them gets the same value as Brown and Carriker provide. Hughs was the CB who caught my eye at the Senior Bowl, he reminded me of Asante with his reaction/closing burst. He probably wouldn't start the season, but he'd develop well behind Scott, Gay, & Mickens and could possibly win the start mid-season. I also like the potential for Tanard Jackson, even though he isn't experienced in man coverage. Josh Wilson from Maryland also showed me some quicks and toughness that could be developed.

Staley or Ugoh as 2nd round OT depth consolation prizes don't appear to be upgrades for the OTs and would probably be bypassed for other position upgrades. Abiamiri, Willis, J. Moore, B. Siler all are interesting LB/LB conversion projects - though Willis and Siler are borderline size wise. Spencer is dropping in my mind, I thought he looked intriguing in an early game I watched, but he seemed to disappear as the season wore on, and he hasn't looked that impressive in the Senior Bowl practices.

There isn't a WR I'd want with a potential first round grade, though Gonzalez (Ohio State) looks to be a quick twitch/excellent route runner when I saw him early, I'd consider a flyer in round 2.

Leonard's value would seem to be late round 2, early round 3 - him I want.

If Okoye fell to #24 (assuming BB isn't wheeling and dealing this draft), he'd be an intriguing prospect to challenge Smith and Wright behind Wilfork. Romo's butterfingers really made this draft more challenging.