It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RI Patriots fan]

Obviously it was slapped down. Only a fool would claim otherwise.



It doesn't include 2011. Again, obvious....



It's not an outlier. The drop from 32 to 33 is incongruous.

drop from 30 to 31 = 23%
drop from 31 to 32 = 18%
drop from 32 to 33 = 46%

So.... change that drop to 20.5% (midway between 18 and 23) and you get a drop of 5.74 as opposed to 13. In other words, that would put 33 at about 22. Then the drop from 22 to 18 would be 18%, which would be in line with the other drops.



There is no doubt that you've misused the study, and that I've shown your errors. The rest of this is just a waste of time.



Actually, we do know enough, assuming the reports are accurate.

Only a fool would think that was a slapdown.

"Outdated" would make the information obsolete. Obviously, since you haven't refuted the information with more "recent" information (the whole one year not included), the information is still relevant and therefore not outdated.

Why would you assume that the rate of change would be the same
for each age? So the change from age 35 to age 36 (73%) is incongruous also? How about from 34 to 35 (39%)...also incongruous?

Ok...decrease of 23%, decrease of 18%, decrease of 46%, increase of 20%, decrease of 39%, decrease of 73%, decrease of 33% and you're saying that the increase of 20% is not an outlier? Yeah....sure.

 

[Deus Irae]

Only a fool would think that was a slapdown.

Obviously not. I'm sorry you can't grasp the obvious, but that's not a failing of others. It's a failing of yours.

"Outdated" would make the information obsolete. Obviously, since you haven't refuted the information with more "recent" information (the whole one year not included), the information is still relevant and therefore not outdated.

There have been two additional seasons played. Those seasons are not taken into account in the study, and the study is about the number of players/seasons. Steve Smith put up 1394 yards at 32 years of age last season, for example. That's why it's outdated.

Definition of OUTDATED
: no longer current

Outdated - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary

It is what it is.

Why would you assume that the rate of change would be the same
for each age? So the change from age 35 to age 36 (73%) is incongruous also? How about from 34 to 35 (39%)...also incongruous?

I didn't make any such assumption. I merely refuted your notion that the age 34 numbers were the outlier by noting that it was the age 33 numbers which were incongruous. Do I really have to go to the dictionary again?

Ok...decrease of 23%, decrease of 18%, decrease of 46%, increase of 20%, decrease of 39%, decrease of 73%, decrease of 50% and you're saying that the increase of 20% is not an outlier? Yeah....sure.

Ok, you don't know English and you don't know stats. This is just a waste of time at this point. Take this up with someone else, because I'm not going to walk you through this anymore.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That the intangibles that Welker uses to get open don't dissipate with age. I stated as much in the post that you responded to. Now, if you want to make an argument for why his production will drop off using a decrease in speed, then you're more than welcome. The validity of the argument will come up wanting but you can still do it if you so wish.

Are you implying that WW will still get open when hes 36 when pretty much every WR who ever played is either hanging on by a thread or out of the league? There is a ton of data that shows WRs starting to show their age at 32 years old. 33 even moreso.

No I grasped your point, I just don't see how it applies for a few reasons...

1. There is no absolute science to when players begin to decline so using the likes of Ricky Proehl to support your argument would be irrelevant (as has been shown with the StatsDontLie link). However, even considering that...

2. The receivers that you mentioned didn't rely on being on the same mental page as the quarterback to peel off on any number of option routes in the Ehrhardt-Perkins system. That's why a guy like Deion Branch, who has had nagging injury after nagging injury, can still get open.

There isn't a science to decline, however there are usually reasons. These reasons generally tend to hover around debilitating injuries. It's the reason why guys like Irvin hang them up early and guys like Owens can play well into their late 30's. Welker has had one serious injury in his entire career, and he's already had a career year since coming back from it.

Proehl was an exception rather than a rule. To say that guys like Pat Tilley or Derrick Mason wern't on the same page as Neil Lomax or McNair is rubbish.

He's given me no reason not to expect it. He's given me greater reason to believe that he'll be capable of it three years down the line than he's given you reason to believe that he's just about done and is not worthy of a multi-year deal. If his stats go down, it'll be for the same reason that Gronk's do: many more weapons on the field to spread the ball out than there were in 2011.

We'll disagree here, Kontra. I'd contend In 3 years if Gronk's stats go down it'll likely be due to a limiting injuries, triple teams and a decline in Brady's ability. If WW's #s go down it'll be him slowing down because he can't bounce back from injury as well as he could when he was 28 or he is just slowing down.

I wasn't. I was comparing the age logic used and then comparing to the last huge contract situation we had. You'll notice that, after that, I noted that it was irrelevant.

Ok.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I have the same feeling. Either way, any comparisons to Fitz/Megatron is absurd.

Welker is going to make 9+ this year, and 11+ next year if/when we franchise him. The only incentive the Patriots have to move off their stance is the freedom to use their franchise tag on someone else after this season.

That or loyalty to one of their most loyal players, who so far has hugely outperformed his pay here. But that's a less tangible factor - and raises bigger issues. Again, the team has to do what is best for the team.

The other incentives are ones they profess to seek at all times, cap flexibility and cost certainty. Better to more flexibly secure the rights to this player for 3-4 years than two if the guaranteed money is the same...or even less. Then it's like a team option at retaining him at anywhere from what the deal offers in unguaranteed salary to veteran minimum to simply moving on from him altogether and regaining all that future cap space.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Obviously not. I'm sorry you can't grasp the obvious, but that's not a failing of others. It's a failing of yours.



There have been two additional seasons played. Those seasons are not taken into account in the study, and the study is about the number of players/seasons. Steve Smith put up 1394 yards at 32 years of age last season, for example. That's why it's outdated.



Outdated - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary

It is what it is.




I didn't make any such assumption. I merely refuted your notion that the age 34 numbers were the outlier by noting that it was the age 33 numbers which were incongruous. Do I really have to go to the dictionary again?



Ok, you don't know English and you don't know stats. This is just a waste of time at this point. Take this up with someone else, because I'm not going to walk you through this anymore.

Oh, I can grasp the obvious. I'm not the one who feels the need to use ad hominems to prove his point.....a clear sign of a weak argument and a lesser intelligence.


Outdated: old-fashioned; obsolete

outdated - definition of outdated by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia.

So how exactly does Steve Smith's performance at 32 years old significantly alter this data to make it "outdated"? How does it change the conclusion that at age 33 on average there is a significant drop in performance?


Just more ad hominems......I have a feeling that you need to resort to them quite frequently.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh, I can grasp the obvious. I'm not the one who feels the need to use ad hominems to prove his point.....a clear sign of a weak argument and a lesser intelligence.


Outdated: old-fashioned; obsolete

outdated - definition of outdated by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia.

So how exactly does Steve Smith's performance at 32 years old significantly alter this data to make it "outdated"? How does it change the conclusion that at age 33, that there is a significant drop in performance?


Just more ad hominems......I have a feeling that you need to resort to them quite frequently.

If you can't figure out how a compiled stat that is relying on all numbers in a set is made obsolete by no longer compiling the numbers, I don't know what to tell you. It's basic stuff.

As for your crying about "ad hominem", It's not my fault if you don't know the language and it's not my fault if you don't know stats. I was just the one stuck dealing with someone who doesn't know the definition of outdated enough to grasp why an outdated stat about the number of 1000 yard seasons for players 30 and over is outdated when it doesn't contain the information from the last 2 seasons and players have, in fact, had 1000 yard seasons while aged 30 or more in that time.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The day that Wes goes anywhere else will feel like the day that Adam V went to the Colts. In the end, though, we were better off that AV left, so if that happens with Wes a year from now I hope for a similar result.

I root for #83 now and would wish him well if he leaves, but I root for only our laundry.

I just hope that at the end of Tom's next contract, facing a QB age cliff, we don't butt heads over a career-wrapup contract. It is pretty clear that Patsa contract numbers are forward-looking and not payment for past services.

 

[borg]

Interesting stat differentials for Brady......

pre and post 2007 (Welker's arrival)
QB rating..... 88 vs 106
TD/INT ratio...2/1 vs 4/1
Comp %........62 vs 67

Post 2007 included 1 great Moss year, 1.5 great Gronk years, and 4 (with Brady) great Welker years. Welker is the constant. While many will correctly argue that the passing rules have reshaped offenses in the NFL, I also believe Welker's arrival reshaped the Patriots offense .....Welker became a first down machine that pushed aside the running game. Statistically, a pass to Welker has a higher chance of achieving a 1st down than a running play... and since Welker averaged 11 yds/ catch...the offense turns into high octane.
Now ask yourself, would Brady be in the discussion as GOAT with 3 rings and stats pre 2007? Can you be GOAT if you are 1) the winningest QB, 2) Most SB appearances, 3) but only above average stats? Sure, Brady would be in the GOAT arguement, but his passing stats would be the focal point of the haters.
Enter Wes.....all of a sudden Brady's numbers skyrocket. The high % completions leads to first downs which leads to more TD chances. Brady wins the GOAT discussion thanks to the tiny white warrior of TD goodness.
I was against paying WW premium coin until I pulled up the above stats today. Tom Brady maybe the staw that stirs the drink, but WW is the Red Bull gets you to the next level.

Side thought from a not-so-deep-thinker.... This contract stalement may be more about showing Brady that max dollar contracts force teams into difficult decisions. Two years from now, Brady will have decisions to make about his future and the team that will surround him

 

[JPPT1974]

Hopefully the team will get him signed. As they need to have a standout WR like Welker. As he brings so much to the team. Keep your fingers crossed.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

If you can't figure out how a compiled stat that is relying on all numbers in a set is made obsolete by no longer compiling the numbers, I don't know what to tell you. It's basic stuff.

As for your crying about "ad hominem", It's not my fault if you don't know the language and it's not my fault if you don't know stats. I was just the one stuck dealing with someone who doesn't know the definition of outdated enough to grasp why an outdated stat about the number of 1000 yard seasons for players 30 and over is outdated when it doesn't contain the information from the last 2 seasons and players have, in fact, had 1000 yard seasons while aged 30 or more in that time.

Oh...I'm sorry.....I thought you were "done" with me. :bricks:

I guess that wasn't true.....hmmm.

Must be lack of self-control :confused2:

But yes, your ad hominems are telling.

And no, the information isn't "out-dated" or "obsolete" and the fact that you think that providing information on one player who is 32 years old would refute what the article data seems to say about 33 year olds shows a great deal about your understanding of stats.

But....I am willing to look at all the evidence. I am not closed to new information. If you're saying that there is additional information from these past 2 season to invalidate these conclusions, then I willing to come to a different conclusion.

I have a feeling that you will just respond with more ad hominems or declarations that you don't have the time or the inclination.
Hopefully I'm wrong and you will provide more information from these last 2 seasons to show that this information is "outdated".

 

[Ring 6]

You said that WW can't be stopped.

No I did not

I said he can be contained.

His YPC, YAC and 1st down % goes down vs better defenses in the playoffs. That is a statistical fact.

There is nothing hypothetical about it.

You said getting 1 less yard a catch makes a big difference if it means you aren't getting first downs, and blabbered on a while after that.
It was made up because that is simply not the result of Welker having a slightly lower post season ypc.

I am done here.

You should be done, because you are not making sense.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh...I'm sorry.....I thought you were "done" with me. :bricks:

I guess that wasn't true.....hmmm.

Must be lack of self-control :confused2:

But yes, your ad hominems are telling.

And no, the information isn't "out-dated" or "obsolete" and the fact that you think that providing information on one player who is 32 years old would refute what the article data seems to say about 33 year olds shows a great deal about your understanding of stats.

But....I am willing to look at all the evidence. I am not closed to new information. If you're saying that there is additional information from these past 2 season to invalidate these conclusions, then I willing to come to a different conclusion.

I have a feeling that you will just respond with more ad hominems or declarations that you don't have the time or the inclination.
Hopefully I'm wrong and you will provide more information from these last 2 seasons to show that this information is "outdated".

What I said was that I wasn't going to walk you through this anymore, and I haven't. As for "provide more information....", I pointed out Steve Smith as an example. In other words, I've already done what you're asking. Now I'm done with you.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

What I said was that I wasn't going to walk you through this anymore, and I haven't. As for "provide more information....", I pointed out Steve Smith as an example. In other words, I've already done what you're asking. Now I'm done with you.

Yup...just like I thought. :confused2:

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Interesting stat differentials for Brady......

pre and post 2007 (Welker's arrival)
QB rating..... 88 vs 106
TD/INT ratio...2/1 vs 4/1
Comp %........62 vs 67

Post 2007 included 1 great Moss year, 1.5 great Gronk years, and 4 (with Brady) great Welker years. Welker is the constant. While many will correctly argue that the passing rules have reshaped offenses in the NFL, I also believe Welker's arrival reshaped the Patriots offense .....Welker became a first down machine that pushed aside the running game. Statistically, a pass to Welker has a higher chance of achieving a 1st down than a running play... and since Welker averaged 11 yds/ catch...the offense turns into high octane.
Now ask yourself, would Brady be in the discussion as GOAT with 3 rings and stats pre 2007? Can you be GOAT if you are 1) the winningest QB, 2) Most SB appearances, 3) but only above average stats? Sure, Brady would be in the GOAT arguement, but his passing stats would be the focal point of the haters.
Enter Wes.....all of a sudden Brady's numbers skyrocket. The high % completions leads to first downs which leads to more TD chances. Brady wins the GOAT discussion thanks to the tiny white warrior of TD goodness.
I was against paying WW premium coin until I pulled up the above stats today. Tom Brady maybe the staw that stirs the drink, but WW is the Red Bull gets you to the next level.

Side thought from a not-so-deep-thinker.... This contract stalement may be more about showing Brady that max dollar contracts force teams into difficult decisions. Two years from now, Brady will have decisions to make about his future and the team that will surround him

I'd lean towards saying the offense got reshaped because the Pats defense got embarrassed by the colts in the second half of the AFCCG in 2006; WW was a big part of that transition, but certainly not the reason for it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

No I did not

Dig yourself out...

Huh? The Patriot passing game runs through Welker.
How can you say he is not a #1 if you think teams design defenses just to shut him down? And they can't.

You said getting 1 less yard a catch makes a big difference if it means you aren't getting first downs, and blabbered on a while after that.
It was made up because that is simply not the result of Welker having a slightly lower post season ypc.

If a slot receiver is getting less yards per catch, he is getting less first downs whereas a player who runs past the 10yd line for their respective routes will make the 1st down regardless. My blabbering makes total sense. You just don't understand it or refuse to acknowledge it.

You should be done, because you are not making sense.

...and you are being subborn.

 

[BradyManny]

The other incentives are ones they profess to seek at all times, cap flexibility and cost certainty. Better to more flexibly secure the rights to this player for 3-4 years than two if the guaranteed money is the same...or even less. Then it's like a team option at retaining him at anywhere from what the deal offers in unguaranteed salary to veteran minimum to simply moving on from him altogether and regaining all that future cap space.

Great point.

 

[goheels22002]

If a slot receiver is getting less yards per catch, he is getting less first downs whereas a player who runs past the 10yd line for their respective routes will make the 1st down regardless.

Not if the slot guy catches a 2-yard pass on 3rd and 1, or if a wideout catches a 30 yard pass on 4th and 45. As Belichick always says - situational football.

Welker in the slot, and Gronk and Hernandez from the TE position, are so valuable because they are the alternative to the running game on any down. Defenses can't load up against the without accounting for whatever combination of these guys is on the field.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not if the slot guy catches a 2-yard pass on 3rd and 1, or if a wideout catches a 30 yard pass on 4th and 45. As Belichick always says - situational football.

Welker in the slot, and Gronk and Hernandez from the TE position, are so valuable because they are the alternative to the running game on any down. Defenses can't load up against the without accounting for whatever combination of these guys is on the field.

Yes but as it relates to WW, you are talking about a small # and % of throws and catches. Good #s here.

Wes Welker - New England Patriots - Situational Statistics - NFL - Yahoo! Sports

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Bears and Ravens managed to get deals done with Forte and Rice, going down to the wire. Patriots will not get a deal done with Welker per numerous sources.

Oh well...

 

[Deus Irae]

Ray rice gets five year 40 mil deal 25 mil 17 in year one per sources close to the deal

https://twitter.com/RavensInsider/statuses/224955471545643008