THIS is the post you should have written in the first place, instead of a smarmy remark.....but I dgress
The franchise tag is inherently unfair to the individual player. That's the whole point of the franchise tag, which is designed to put an artificial brake on the salaries of top players while keeping them from changing teams.
It is NOT inherently unfair to offer to pay a man full value (the average of the top 5 salaries of a player in his position) for a year of his service. While it might not be the best deal a player can get, it certainly isn't akin to him being screwed. As Wes himself so eloquently said (paraphrase) "I can't hate that they will pay me 50% of what it took me 5 years to make, for one"
The Patriots reportedly offered 2 years, $16 million.
I never heard that, but its in the ball park. I think $18 for 2 with a $10MM signing bonus and the rest guaranteed except for injury, is about right. But I think Wes want it longer and a bit more money
His ability to sit out and not sign the deal is clearly leverage.
Not to the Pats. Has it ever worked before. It got Branch moved out of town. It cost Mankins a year of his career and playing half a season for less than $300,000.
Again, its kind of moot until July. Him missing OTAs is meanless. BU if it turns ugly by then, I'd just let him go and try and let his agent work out a deal like we did Branch. Its not like we are WR poor like we were in 2006
At 9 this year and over 10 next year (franchise tag values), why would he want to sign a 3 year deal for 20 (actually around 20.7 as I recall)? Barring injury, he's essentially got either 20 guaranteed for 2 years or 9 guaranteed for one with complete and untagged free agency following that.
Personally I have no problems paying Welker 20MM over the next 2 years, its paying him significant money beyond that time that concerns me....and the Pats. OTOH I'd do a 3 year deal for $20MM that has incentives in the 2nd and 3rd years that could raise it 30MM if his production remains similar to the average of his first 5 years. Is that fair enough for you
True, but the only people making the "overpay" argument are those who want Welker to be underpaid.
That remark is both gratuitous and untrue. It is a simple recognition that skills eventually erode. And teams that overpay older players for PAST results cost their teams in the future. The Pats have done a great job of NOT doing that.
I'd be willing to pay Welker over $10MM/yr for every year he has over 90 receptions and 1000 yds, but I do not want to pay him that kind of money when his product slides below that due to an erosion of skills or the injuries that crop up more as a player gets older. ESPECIALLY one of Welker's stature. A contract that recognizes that reality can have any numbers you want for the press
Welker caught 122 this past season, with Gronk setting TE records and getting 90 catches, and Hernandez grabbing 79 receptions. They may not be maxed out, but they're likely close, and they could both see fewer, rather than more, catches moving forward. Any likely cut into Welker's numbers would likely come from Lloyd getting more than the 51 catches that Branch had. So, unless the thought is that Lloyd is going to be putting up significantly more than 71 catches year in and year out, there are still going to be 100 catches, give or take, there for Welker.
Why do you think an improving Gronk and Hernandez would be capped in their receptions? Neither have even reached their primes.
You are correct with LLoyd who is going to get more looks from Brady than Branch got, and I figure the Pats are going to run the ball about 5-10 times more a game. Plus last season Brady threw for the 2nd most yds in NFL history. Its unlikely he'll equal that number this year 4800 yds is a more reasonable expectation.
The point being that Welker had a career year in 2011. Its not fair to expect the same results this year, just as it would be unfair to expect Brady to be close to 50 TDs just because he did it before. So for all those reasons, its reasonable to expect Welker's production to be less than the 122 catches he had last season.
Any more significant cuts into Welker's reception totals are more likely to come from a better WR4 option and from the RB reception numbers than from Gronk/Hernandez/Lloyd.
I don't entirely agree, but they are good points as well. In fact I wish Brady had used his RBs more last season