Content Post Bill Belichick's draft strategy.

[Off The Grid]

Thats my gripe. Its the perpetual 1st round pick thats never gets used.

I'm amazed that you continue to avoid this stark reality:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/909820-coach-bill-mad-genius-trading-back.html

Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

For the education of those of you who think that Mad Bill's incessant Trade Backs ~ trading a 3rd for a Deferred 2nd, that sort of thing ~ disappear down some Rabbit Hole...And for the amusement of those who know better...I thought I'd invest a little time in doing some quick and dirty Mathematics.

What I'm going to do here is simply add up the Book Values ~ that's Draft Value Chart Dollars, for those scoring at home!! ~ of the Picks we've ended up with, in recent years, and compare them to what we would've ended up with if Mad Bill had simply stood pat ~ a simple exercise, but I'm kind of curious, myself!!

1 ~ To save myself a lot of work, I'm going to stick to the approximate Book Values of the first 3 Rounds, and I'll also take the liberty of rounding off, if the mood strikes me!!

2 ~ To further clarify things, I'll also include the applicable Trade Downs..and Trade Ups!!

3 ~ I've excluded trades for Players ~ Wes Welker, Matt Cassel, Deion Branch ~ and Comps, of course.

2007

Before All Trade Backs: #24, 28, and 91 = 740 + 660 + 136 = 1536 Points.

1 ~ #28 to Miners for 2008 1st Rounder ~ #07.
2 ~ #91 to Raiders for 2008 3rd Rounder ~ #69.

After Trade Backs: #24 = 740 = 740 Points.

Change = - 796 Points.

2008

Before All Trade Backs: #62 + 94 = 284 + 124 = 408.

1 ~ #7 to Saints for #10 + #78.
2 ~ #69 to Bolts for 2009 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #10, 62, 78, and 94 = 1300 + 284 + 200 + 124 = 1908.

Change = + 1500 Points.

2009

Before All Trade Backs: #23, 58, and 89 = 760 + 320 + 145 = 1225.

1 ~ #23 to Ravens for #26 (5th Rounder doesn't weigh, here).
2 ~ #26 to Packers for #41, #73, and #83.
3 ~ #47 to Raiders (Again: Later Rounders don't apply, here) for #40.
4 ~ #73 to Jaguars for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #44.
5 ~ #89 to Titans for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #40, 41, 58, and 83 = 500 + 490 + 320 + 175 = 1485.

Change = + 260 Points.

2010

Before All Trade Backs: #22, 53, and 85 = 780 + 370 + 165 = 1315.

1 ~ #22 to Broncos for #24 (And Aaron The Navigator!!).
2 ~ #24 to CowBoys for #27 and #90.
3 ~ #44 to Raiders for #42.
4 ~ #47 to Cards for #58 and #89.
5 ~ #58 to Hoosten for #62 (And Zoltan The Space Emperor...of Space!!).
6 ~ #89 to Panthers for 2011 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #27, 42, 53, 62, and 90 = 680 + 480 + 370 + 284 + 140 = 1954.

Change = + 641 Points.

2011

Before All Trade Backs: #28, 60, and 92 = 660 + 300 + 132 = 1092.

1 ~ #28 to Saints for #56 and 2012 1st Rounder.
2 ~ #60 to Hoosten for #73 and change.
3 ~ #92 to Raiders for 2012 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #33, 56, and 73 = 580 + 340 + 225 = 1145.

Change = + 53 Points.

2012

Before All Trade Backs: #31, 62, and 93 = 600 + 284 + 128 = 1012.

After All Trade Backs ~ So Far!!: #27, 31, 48, 62, and 93 = 680 + 600 + 420 + 284 + 128 = 2112.

Change = + 1100 Points!!

Let's Tally That Up, Shall We??

2007 = - 0796 Points.
2008 = + 1500 Points.
2009 = + 0260 Points.
2010 = + 0641 Points.
2011 = + 0053 Points.
2012 = + 1100 Points.

Total = + 2758 Points!!

That's like getting 4 1st Rounders ~ #26 ~ in 6 years...for FREE!! :rocker:

Put another way...

That's like getting 10 2nd rounders ~ #63 ~ TEN Second Rounders!!! ~ for FREE!!!

So much for those who think that Mad Bill's just hiding those Picks under'is mattress!!

Bill The Mad (Genius) has clearly been reaping the harvest every single year.

Time to find something else to complain about.

 

[Ring 6]

YES!

Thats my gripe. Its the perpetual 1st round pick thats never gets used.

That is entirely incorrect. They have always been used.

Trades into the 2nd have been made.

You admitted so yourself.

Not without getting a 1 back. Feel free to show an example after being asked for the 5th time now.

No, I dont agree with not taking the best players when you have a HOF QB on the roster with an aging WR corp and a swiss cheese pass defense.

That is a horrendous representation of what has been done.

The defense would look much worse if not for Brady. He hides a lot of warts.

Actually that isn't really true. Having Brady putting up all those points makes the record better, but makes the defense look worse than it is.

When the picks they traded for suck, then no.

Again, mischaracterizing.
How about you list ACTUAL TRADES that you think were terrible?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Eric Weddle was picked after Brandon Meriwether.

Its a poor excuse to use the Pats draft slot when there are better players still on the draft board after they pick.

Eric Weddle sucks.

A triumph......in stupidity.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Good point. And while Will Smith isn't elite year in and year out, he had 13 sacks the year NO won and played at a high level for them that year. And GB had Mathews. To say having good pass rushers doesn't give you the best chance to win SBs these days is just silly to me.

Another triumph of stupidity.

GB STILL HAS Matthews. NO STILL HAS Will Smith.

What's silly is how someone this clueless posts on a board

Take all these elite "pash rusher" teams and have their franchise QB blow out his knee, lose two years and see where they are.

Have the same team go into a season where 1/2 the snaps are taken by rookies/second year players and see where they are.

Have the same teams lose the #1 weapon on offense and see what happens.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

The "arm chair GMs" were right for years, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Instead of just blindly sticking your head in the sand and singing "BB is great, BB is God", perhaps you could find a middle ground...

Ahhhhh..........

The third Stooge makes an appearance.

What were these "arm chair GM's" right about?

 

[Rob0729]

Another triumph of stupidity.

GB STILL HAS Matthews. NO STILL HAS Will Smith.

What's silly is how someone this clueless posts on a board

Take all these elite "pash rusher" teams and have their franchise QB blow out his knee, lose two years and see where they are.

Have the same team go into a season where 1/2 the snaps are taken by rookies/second year players and see where they are.

Have the same teams lose the #1 weapon on offense and see what happens.

Yeah, to say the reason those teams won the Super Bowl is because they had a double digit pass rusher is a little misleading. I am sure it helps quite a bit, but it wasn't THE REASON.

Besides, the Pats had two double digit pass rushers last year (first time for the Pats since 1986) and both were scrap heap veterans not first round draft picks by the Pats. That is proof you don't need to use a high first round pick to get a double digit sackmaster.

 

[JackBauer]

Eric Weddle sucks.

Not that I agree with anything Triumph is saying or has ever said, but Weddle would be the best safety on the roster right now.

 

[randomk1]

Eric Weddle sucks.

Define sucks because if Weddle sucks then there aren't many good players left in the league. Other than being owned by the Gronk i think Weddle is pretty good. I'd rank him among the top safeties.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The "arm chair GMs" were right for years, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Instead of just blindly sticking your head in the sand and singing "BB is great, BB is God", perhaps you could find a middle ground...

I.e.......Deus was right, Belichick was wrong..........




Amazing how right a fan can be from the other side of a draft magazine with zero accountability for all their misses.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Not that I agree with anything Triumph is saying or has ever said, but Weddle would be the best safety on the roster right now.

Ofcourse, considering the persistent pattern of meathead endemic in the Charget lineup; who's to say Weddle wouldn't have been another "bust"?

The real point of drafting and team building is the fact that based on one play and/or an official call, the Patriots could have hoisted six Lombardi's since 2001.

Actual execution of that one decisive play is the result of coaching, a call, or the player wiffing. No offseason can account for that. Ditto an official call.

The other point is is since 2007, two years were spent without a peak franchise QB and a wholesale changeout of the roster.

The Packers had a similiar experience as the 2010 Pats. It was 2005 and they went 4-12.

The reality is actually winning a championchip takes a critical level of circumstance. The number of combined times a team can be "lucky" or "unlucky" is a measurement of the offseason and draft.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The arm chair GM's are all geniuses with their 20-20 hindsight, they could have picked (insert name) but instead picked (insert name). In order to rate BB's drafts you'd have to look back and see what they traded for and what they got, or you could just go by the end results, 5 SB's, 3 wins, 1 AFC championship. I think Ill stick with results.

Pretty easy to be right when there is absolutely no record for being wrong and zero accountability. we can always look back on Belichick's drafts and rate them, the same can never be said of Deus and the rest of the Friday morning QB's.

 

[Marqui]

Yeah, to say the reason those teams won the Super Bowl is because they had a double digit pass rusher is a little misleading. I am sure it helps quite a bit, but it wasn't THE REASON.

I don't know who said that, wasn't me. Football is the ultimate team sport, no 1 or 2 players is ever the reason a team wins a championship. All I said was in today's NFL having good pass rushers gives you a significantly better chance to win a SB. You'd have to be in a serious state of denial to disagree with that.

Besides, the Pats had two double digit pass rushers last year (first time for the Pats since 1986) and both were scrap heap veterans not first round draft picks by the Pats. That is proof you don't need to use a high first round pick to get a double digit sackmaster.

I don't get what this has to do with anything. Patriots got Brady with a 6th round pick so that's proof you don't need to spend high picks on QBs. Colts, Packers, Giants, Steelers were all wrong to use a 1st round pick on a QB. Can't argue with that logic.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Define sucks because if Weddle sucks then there aren't many good players left in the league. Other than being owned by the Gronk i think Weddle is pretty good. I'd rank him among the top safeties.

The "definition" is he wouldn't "suck" if he was the single, definitive reason why the Chargers were able to hoist multiple Lombardi's.

(It's really a dig on the whole projection concept).

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know who said that, wasn't me. Football is the ultimate team sport, no 1 or 2 players is ever the reason a team wins a championship. All I said was in today's NFL having good pass rushers gives you a significantly better chance to win a SB. You'd have to be in a serious state of denial to disagree with that.

Here is your exact quote:

To say having good pass rushers doesn't give you the best chance to win SBs these days is just silly to me.

Having a good pass rusher doesn't give you the best chance of winning unless you have a lot of other pieces.

I don't get what this has to do with anything. Patriots got Brady with a 6th round pick so that's proof you don't need to spend high picks on QBs. Colts, Packers, Giants, Steelers were all wrong to use a 1st round pick on a QB. Can't argue with that logic.

I am showing that a double digit sack player can be found in multiple ways, not just the first round. If the Pats get him there, great. If they don't, doesn't mean they can't get one.

Last year's sack leader, Jared Allen with 22 sacks, was drafted in the fourth round.

 

[ivanvamp]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

This may have been addressed by others in the thread already so if it has been, please forgive this superfluous post. But here's the answer to the question:

Having two 1st round picks is helpful because you can always generate an extra 2nd round pick each year in the draft from it. You trade one of the 1st rounders for a 2nd in this year's draft and a 1st in next year's draft. Then next year, you trade one of your two 1st rounders for a 2nd in that draft and a 1st in the following year's draft. Rinse, repeat. Kind of like the 1st round pick is the goose and the 2nd round pick is the golden egg. So long as you don't kill the goose, you'll keep getting golden eggs. It's tempting, though, when you're hungry, to kill the goose.

You do this every year and it's like using that extra pick as a million dollars in the bank - you just draw on the interest from it - and that 2nd round pick is the interest. This way you get a totally free 2nd round pick every season. After a few years, that really adds up.

Now, you're not always going to hit on the extra 2nd rounder, but it's pretty significant ammunition to have every year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

This may have been addressed by others in the thread already so if it has been, please forgive this superfluous post. But here's the answer to the question:

Having two 1st round picks is helpful because you can always generate an extra 2nd round pick each year in the draft from it. You trade one of the 1st rounders for a 2nd in this year's draft and a 1st in next year's draft. Then next year, you trade one of your two 1st rounders for a 2nd in that draft and a 1st in the following year's draft. Rinse, repeat. Kind of like the 1st round pick is the goose and the 2nd round pick is the golden egg. So long as you don't kill the goose, you'll keep getting golden eggs. It's tempting, though, when you're hungry, to kill the goose.

You do this every year and it's like using that extra pick as a million dollars in the bank - you just draw on the interest from it - and that 2nd round pick is the interest. This way you get a totally free 2nd round pick every season. After a few years, that really adds up.

Now, you're not always going to hit on the extra 2nd rounder, but it's pretty significant ammunition to have every year.

It's been addressed with him over and over, he simply doesn't accept it and believes, like others here, that he knows more about football talent and how to put a team together than Belichick does.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

Prediction: BB trades out of the first round entirely.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The "arm chair GMs" were right for years, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Instead of just blindly sticking your head in the sand and singing "BB is great, BB is God", perhaps you could find a middle ground...

Where did I say BB is great BB is God? I admit he isnt perfect with his picks, although no one is, Im just saying the strategy he employs for the draft is sound. Looking back and saying they could have, should have picked this guy is a fools game because its using 20-20 hindsight.
We're not idiots Deus, we know last years teams had its faults, there was a few of us that thought they still could be Super Bowl Champions the way the team was constructed, we we're wrong.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Where did I say BB is great BB is God? I admit he isnt perfect with his picks, although no one is, Im just saying the strategy he employs for the draft is sound. Looking back and saying they could have, should have picked this guy is a fools game because its using 20-20 hindsight.
We're not idiots Deus, we know last years teams had its faults, there was a few of us that thought they still could be Super Bowl Champions the way the team was constructed, we we're wrong.

Just another strawman from deus, he apparently does it all the time. He did the same thing with the team last season claiming that there was a whole contingent of fans claiming the Patriots had a good defense when in fact almost no-one had made such a claim, and a poll on the issue found that it was less than 10% and most who said they did had almost no posts. In this case no-one has made the argument that Belichick drafts perfectly and pretty much everyone acknowledges numerous misses and some really bad drafts as a whole, so he has to once again fabricate an opposition to argue against.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Prediction: BB trades out of the first round entirely.

Yeah, but think about having 16 picks in the seventh round! Yay!