2012 - Teams that will Regress and Progress

[HowardRoark]

Damn, people around here have short memories.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...nvisible-man-ninkovich-worst-starter-nfl.html

FWIW, I knew exactly what you were referring to.

 

[Calciumee]

They play the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals twice each.

That's like 6 free wins right there.

Seahawks with Matt Flynn could put up a fight! But still see 49ers going 6-0 against the NFCW!

 

[Dragda]

FWIW, I knew exactly what you were referring to.

Put me in the short memory category if you must, but JackBauer and HowardRoark have freakish memories to pull that garbage thread out of their memory banks like that. I devote my memory to much more important things like the theme songs of TV shows fron the 60s and 70s.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Jets - Can they be worse than they were last year? I don't know. Rex is a good coach. I think it depends on their first round pick this year. Do they add someone that comes in and makes an immediate impact? How does Mo Wilkerson develop in his 2nd year? Their D seems like it's 1 or 2 players away from being elite. But the Tebow/Sanchez thing has huge potential to cause distractions. Basically the same crap as last year, but now with Tebows always popular name thrown in the middle of it. Possible QB controversy. Locker Room could implode. This one is hard to predict. I think they'll be better than last year, but not as good as they were in those 2 seasons they made the AFC Finals.

Is he? After this past season, I'm not so sure. Through three seasons, he's exactly two games over .500, and he straight up admitted that he lost control of the locker room. He's an excellent defensive mind and a fantastic coordinator, but whether or not he's a good head coach is still very much up in the air, IMO.

 

[363839]

Damn, people around here have short memories.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...nvisible-man-ninkovich-worst-starter-nfl.html

My apologies. Didn't read the link as I was at work just glossing over the thread and so I missed your intended sarcasm.
I'm a little sensitive to criticism of Ninko because he was born where I work and grew up where I now live. He's my binky.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

jets blow

 

[goheels22002]

I think the 'curse' angle is overhyped. The NFL is very competitive; there's very little separating a large number of good teams. It's difficult enough for any team to get back to the playoffs the following year; it's that much more difficult for either a winner or loser to go to the Super Bowl two straight years in the salary cap/free agency era. As you mentioned injuries, bounces that went one way one year go the other the next year, etc.

I have read previously that on average half the teams that make the playoffs one year fail to make the playoffs the following season. With that in mind I would guess that in the AFC the teams most likely to repeat would be the Ravens, Texans and Patriots; the Steelers, Bengals and Broncos would be the least likely to repeat. In the NFC I would say that the Packers and 49ers are most likely going back to the playoffs. The third team is a tough call; it could be any one of the four other teams. I'll guess Atlanta makes it, leaving the Giants, Lions and Saints out.

As for which teams take their place and make the playoffs I'll guess the Chiefs, Bills and Jets in the AFC, and the Cowboys, Eagles and Bears in the NFC.

The curse only applies to teams that don't have the Jets 2X, the Dolphins 2X, the Jaguars, the Colts, the Rams, and Pete Carroll on their schedule. Even the big tough guys from SF and Houston have to come to Foxboro in December.

 

[rookBoston]

I think a more pressing question is: will Rob Ninkovich continue to be the worst starter in the NFL?

Worse than our starting free safety... who was either Matthew Slater or Sterling Moore or some other random guy who can run kinda fast and will run to the place where the QB throws the ball? Worse than that guy? Cause he was so bad I'm not even sure who it was.

 

[lurker1965]

I think the Colts will be worse than last year, and the Broncos should be better. It's gonna be weird watchin Peyton play in Denver.

I do not think it is possible for the Colts to be worse. And I think Denver is looking at 6-10 because Peyton is not Friggin' Peyton.

Colts will improve. Not winning the division, but winning more than 3 games... Luck will be a rookie, but will be better than Orlovsky.

KC will not have a joke of a coach holding them back and will be healthy.

Jets will be fighting Miami for 3rd place in the AFC East.

Steelers on top of everything have an owner now gently nudging the coach to become a running team again.

Saints will suffer from suspensions.

49ers have a tougher schedule and might win their division by only two games this year.

 

[lurker1965]

I thought they lost their #1 for next year, no?

It was a #2, I think.

 

[Ring 6]

My comments in bold

Regress

Steelers - Lots a lot of veteran leadership is gone. Hines Ward, James Farrior, Aaron Smith, Chris Hoke. Harrison and Polamalu aren't the game changers they were a couple years ago. Todd Haley is a fiery change from Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator. Not sure Big Ben and those young WR's get along with Haleys strict style.
Hard to imagine they won't slip
Saints - This one is obvious. Lost their head coach and play caller. Interim head coach is even suspended for 6 games IIRC. Some players may be seeing suspensions also.
Will probably contend for a while then fade away
Chargers - Lost Vincent Jackson. Rivers had a down year last season which isn't a good sign. Could he see a McNabb-like fall from grace? Defense isn't getting any younger. This team consistently fails to meet expectations. Could it be that they just aren't as good as people thought they were?

I think you are a few years late to this party
Progress

Bengals - Andy Dalton and AJ Green are the real deal. The defense is solid. They have 2 picks in the 1st rd of the draft too.
Dalton is decent, but there are many better QBs than him to consider him a reason they would be an elite team. Their track record of being good back ot back is atrociousl
Bills - Too much talent on that DLine to not be effective. If they can stay healthy, the defense should see a big improvement.
They added a good DE and a journeyman who will get exploited by the run. Name value yes, contender, not so much.
Eagles - Hard to see them being any worse than they were last year.
They were bad because they were chokers. Not sure if they have made changes that will correct that
Lions - Stafford to Megatron is developing into an unstoppable force. The Lions should continue to progress unless one of these guys has a big injury. Suh will redeem himself after a bit of a poor sophomore showing.
I see last year as them peaking until I see more. Epitome of top loaded team who pay boatloads of money for a handful of players and have nothing left to surround them with
Colts - Andrew Luck is better than any QB that started for them last year.
Better player, but as a rookie won't play much better than the collection of slugs they trotted out last year

Can't Call It

Bears - Cutler and Marshall had great chemistry in Denver. This finally gives the Bears a WR threat that they've seemingly lacked forever. They should be better this year, but its hard to say how much they'll progress since they're in a tough division with the Packers and the Lions.
Interesting team. Cutler seems like a QB that will simply never win. Each year there will be an excuse (OL, weapons, defense, etc) and in most of them he will figure out how to be 8-8
Jets - Can they be worse than they were last year? I don't know. Rex is a good coach. I think it depends on their first round pick this year. Do they add someone that comes in and makes an immediate impact? How does Mo Wilkerson develop in his 2nd year? Their D seems like it's 1 or 2 players away from being elite. But the Tebow/Sanchez thing has huge potential to cause distractions. Basically the same crap as last year, but now with Tebows always popular name thrown in the middle of it. Possible QB controversy. Locker Room could implode. This one is hard to predict. I think they'll be better than last year, but not as good as they were in those 2 seasons they made the AFC Finals.
The Jets severly lack talent. They are a 3-13 team plus Revis. Aside from Revis, Mangold, Harris and in some opinions Ferguson, it is very difficult to find a player on the roster that is above average for their position. No WRs, RB is mediocre, DL is weak, no LBs aside from Harris are worth much. Safeties stink, and of course QB is a disaster. Without Revis the D that was 20th in points allowed WITH him would be totally exposed and the offense already is.


The above is all just my humble opinion. Preseason hasn't even started, and the draft hasn't been done. Lots of things will happen from now until September. Hold outs, Injuries, trades, etc....

Of course 100 people could have 100 different outlooks at this juncture.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

What are we using to judge "regression" vs "progression"? Strictly record? There are teams who play better from one year to the next but their schedule or injuries cause their record to be worse...

That being said, going strictly by record:

Progress:
Tampa: They are in a tough division but should be in the thick of it as they were two years ago. Schiano may be another Pete Carroll but his guys will be pumped and jacked to play for him (at first).

Eagles: They showed what they can do for a stretch there in November-December. The NFC East may be there for the taking.

Seattle: Should be better with a real, live qb...presuming that Flynn is one.

Colts: How can they not?

Rams: Love or hate Fisher, his teams play hard and a healthy Bradford will go a long way in that crap division.

Chiefs: They had a load of injuries last year and should challenge the fighting foreheads for the division.



Regress:
Bengals--As noted, they just don't do good back to back years. Also, they seem the likely candidate for, the "One step forward, two steps back" team this year.

Pittsburgh: They are getting old quick...(at least they seem to be, I have no numbers to back this up)

Tennessee: Some flukey things happened to them last year and I just don't see them being as good as they were. Sub 500 for them.

Jets: Just because.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Good thread. I'll have to limit mine to the AFC.

Progress.

Houston. Sorry if this seems too obvious and trendy, but I do think the Texans will get a bye in the AFC this year. Too much talent, and most of that talent has played together. We might be looking at one of the conference's better teams for the next 4-5 year. My only concern is that Kubiak is a terrible coach and will Schottenheimer them out of a playoff game, I guarantee it.

Indianapolis. Considering what the "great" Andy Dalton pulled off last year, and what other QBs have done pretty often in the last five years, is it a stretch the Colts make the playoffs? Hard to say they are rebuilding when they just re-upped Mathis and Wayne. I see the Colts in the hunt for a wild card behind Luck.

San Diego. Something tells me that Rivers was injured last year- it makes sense if you saw his struggles. I believe the window has essentially shut on SD's Super Bowl dream, but Rivers is still one of the top three quarterbacks in the conference. Considering how weak the other QB competition is in the AFC, I think a healthy PR gives them 10-11 wins.

Regress

Cincinnati. A young team on the rise, but, they are the Bengals. Never seen a professional sports team so consistently disappoint whenever there are high expectations. Not sure what it is about the culture there, but they are just never good. I have a feeling they'll have a key injury or tough loss early on and never recover.

Pittsburgh. It has been stated a few times in this thread, but time marches on. I don't think the Steelers will fall as dramatically as some, but I see their best win total at 10 and more likely at 8-9. Ben Roethlisberger stopped progressing as a QB a long time ago. Do you remember when Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees got to around season 7 of their careers? They all went from great quarterbacks to record breaking, defense decoding, extremely scary players. Big Ben plateaud a long time ago, probably because he never put in the time to understand the finer points. Eventually, the Steelers will need him to throw 40 TDs, but he will always be a good player never transcending his class.

Buffalo. Not sure if they'll regress from their record, but they'll regress from their expectations. Frankly, I see nothing the Bills did this offseason that involves the word "value." They played the role of the Washington Redskins, outbid every team for several key players, and now will get ready for a classic Redskins-type season. The highest paid defensive player in the league is not even one of the 20 best. That cap hit will hurt for years.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Pittsburgh. It has been stated a few times in this thread, but time marches on. I don't think the Steelers will fall as dramatically as some, but I see their best win total at 10 and more likely at 8-9. Ben Roethlisberger stopped progressing as a QB a long time ago. Do you remember when Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees got to around season 7 of their careers? They all went from great quarterbacks to record breaking, defense decoding, extremely scary players. Big Ben plateaud a long time ago, probably because he never put in the time to understand the finer points. Eventually, the Steelers will need him to throw 40 TDs, but he will always be a good player never transcending his class.

That's a pretty accurate assessment of Ben R.

 

[Deus Irae]

Pittsburgh got hosed by the schedule makers in the first 3 weeks, but things get much better for the Steelers after that. They should win 10-12 games again this season.

 

[strngplyr]

Seahawks with Matt Flynn could put up a fight! But still see 49ers going 6-0 against the NFCW!

They lost to Arizona and edged out 2 and 7 point victories against the Seahawks and Rams respectively last season. I don't see them going 6-0, I see 3-3 actually. Rams were supposed to be better but lost their starters at every position due to injury and the Seahawks are very close to being a legitimate team.

Edit: The final game against the Rams, which was very important for SF to win, included the Rams scoring 17 points in the 4th with Kellen Clemmens at quarterback.

 

[Arrington Planet]

I'm a nullity predicting, but well, it can't hurt, and in 9 months I'll look back and laugh at this .

Progress

Carolina Panthers: Their defense got killed by injuries early last season, and a revitalized offense made them a hard rival all year long. With a little more help on that side of the ball I think they will have a shot even for winning their division.

Chicago Bears: It will depend on whether Matt Forte stays or not. If he does, they'll have a good chance of making the playoffs. They were on track last year until injuries destroyed their chances, if both Cutler and Forte can stay healthy they can take the Lions' spot (or, as tough as it looks, winning the division, like the '10 season).

Indianapolis Colts: This is obvious. It's almost impossible to get even worse. Luck will play better than whoever they put under the center last season. Not a playoff team yet, but I see them finishing 6-10 or 7-9 and being a tough rival to anyone.

Kansas City Chiefs: Another team that got sank early last year with injuries. With the return of some key players, the hand of Romeo Crennel and not being under the spotlight this season, I think their season can be similar to the '10 one.

Regress

Detroit Lions: They were a nice surprise last year, but I can't see them keeping that level this season. Sure, they have Calvin Johnson, and Stafford has finally proved he can play a whole season, but with (theoretically) a tougher schedule they'll need more, and I doubt they have it.

New Orleans Saints: It may be too obvious, but an angry QB, an interim HC who can't even do his work during the first six weeks (WTF!) and some defensive players sanctioned too isn't a good mix.

Buffalo Bills: They have added the most shining pieces available on FA, but, like someone has already said before, they're looking to me like this year's Redskins right now. They have a QB who after getting a new contract started playing like crap, a 31 year old RB coming back from a season ending injury and a defense that played awfully last year. Maybe not worse than last year, but I sure think they won't meet the expectations.

Cincinnati Bengals: Well, for a start, they are the Bengals, when was the last time they had two winning seasons on a row? They are a young group, and if they have a bad start I can see them just collapsing (Marvin Lewis sure wouldn't help them to recover from it). Plus, having Ravens and Steelers twice a year in your schedule is a tough test for anyone.

 

[VrabelJr]

Progress:
Seahawks
Cardinals
Buccaneers
Chargers
Chiefs
Bears

Regress:
Bengals
Steelers
Giants
Jets
49ers
Dolphins

I'm super high on the Cardinals. That was a damn good football team going into the end of the year.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think it's fairly safe to say the Bills are going to be a contender this season with all the additions aboard this offseason......I don't see them tanking away the second half this year and should make the playoffs with 10 or 11 wins,that defensive front 7 could end up as one of the best in football and thier secondary looks decent as well,The Patriots have something to worry about in the east this year as it is not going to be another runaway division win.

I also think it's a gimme that despite all the power on offense,that the Saints will not be able to rise up from the controversy bestowed upon them with the bounty scandal and with the loss of Payton at the helm......the Saints will be an 8-8 team this season.

 

[JackBauer]

Regress:
Bengals

Can't see that happening given where they're at, but I'd be interested in hearing your reasoning.