Brian Hoyer's value

[everlong]

For the sake of discussion let's assume the Patriots are comfortable with Ryan Mallet as Brady's backup. Is this true? I have no idea and I doubt anybody outside of the organization does either.

1.260 M$ - ROFR
1.260 M$ - ROFR & original selection
1.927 M$ - ROFR & 2nd round selection
2.742 M$ - ROFR & 1st round selection

I think we can agree they'll use either the first or second round tender on him since the other two are pretty much useless in getting any value for him. I'm not sure I see too much of a difference in the two tags for the Patriots so they'll use the second rounder as the cheaper option..

Charlie Whitehurst + 60 pick for 40th pick

Kevin Kolb for Dominque Rodgers Cromartie and a 2012 2nd which ended up being #43.

Matt Cassel + Mike Vrable for #34 which was Patrick Chung.

Cassel doesn't have the starts like Cassel or Kolb so his value is probably closer to Whitehurst. The difference between 40 and 60 is 200 points on the value chart which works out to pick #78 the 14th pick of the 3rd round.

Potentially that woudl be enough to go from

27 up to 19/20 range
61 up to 42/43 range

So who are the fits for Hoyer. IMO the perfect fit is Washington with Shanahan. Most people have them trading up to try and get RG3 but that's pretty costly. I think Hoyer's mobility and accuracy along with already having played for a disciplinarian that he respects would entice Shanahan. Also being a veteran from a complication system.

They could be a natural trading part going up in the second but also if they trade down in the first to the teens and a guy like Brockers drops that could be the ticket.

Seattle and Jax are two more options.

 

[VrabelJr]

Hoyer has little to no value to anyone outside of the New England area.

 

[Gronkandez]

The Jets need a reasonably priced backup who can challenge Sanchez and Rex is obsessed with anything Patriots related. They also don't seem to like draft picks much.

If the Pats think Hoyer is good and want to keep him, a first round tender is a no-brainer. If they're on the fence about him and think Mallet is dependable then he should get the 2nd round tender. The salary difference is only $800K and it's only for one year.

 

[everlong]

Disagree. If Charlie Whitehurst had value Hoyer has value.

 

[everlong]

The Jets need a reasonably priced backup who can challenge Sanchez and Rex is obsessed with anything Patriots related. They also don't seem to like draft picks much.

If the Pats think Hoyer is good and want to keep him, a first round tender is a no-brainer. If they're on the fence about him and think Mallet is dependable then he should get the 2nd round tender. The salary difference is only $800K and it's only for one year.

Sorry but if the Jets want to give up #47 for Hoyer......sold.

 

[Gronkandez]

Sorry but if the Jets want to give up #47 for Hoyer......sold.

On paper that works but do you think Mallet knows the system well enough to run the team if Brady goes down though?

 

[everlong]

On paper that works but do you think Mallet knows the system well enough to run the team if Brady goes down though?

The premise was I don't know but if the organization thinks he can what's Hoyer's value. I don't think we've seen enough of him to know. If he's been amazing in practice and gets all of the offensive theories and objectives then they should get value for Hoyer while they can. If Mallet is KOC II then Hoyer needs to stay.

 

[resdubwhite]

Disagree. If Charlie Whitehurst had value Hoyer has value.

But nobody at the time outside of Seattle thought that was a good deal.

Do not see much interest in Hoyer outside of NE.

 

[Tasco]

But nobody at the time outside of Seattle thought that was a good deal.

Do not see much interest in Hoyer outside of NE.

One team thinking it's a good deal is enough!

Imo he's at least as valuable as Whitehurst, if we're going to get the same value in exchange is another pair of shoes.

 

[VrabelJr]

Disagree. If Charlie Whitehurst had value Hoyer has value.

That was a former coach of his being in love with a scrub.

 

[mgteich]

I would tender Hoyer with second round money unless the team thinks that Mallett is totally not ready for prime time, in which case the team will shell out the additional money.

If Mallett is ready, or close to ready, then a second for Hoyer is great.

 

[Wilfork#75]

The Whitehurst trade was to swap 2nds and a future 3rd, so the trade value is over 300 points (wow that was a bad trade). I don't think Hoyer has that much value, although I do think he has some because of the attention he got at last years draft from Michael Lombardi. There are a lot of teams which could have interest in Hoyer, but I think one interesting one is Cleveland. If someone jumps ahead of them in the 1st and takes RGIII (Washington?), then I think they could look at Hoyer as an alternative because this QB class is weak. They also have extra picks from the Julio Jones trade, so a trade would have less of an effect on them than other teams. I think something like

Hoyer + 3rd (95) to Cle for 3rd (68) + 4th (100)
(Hoyer + 120pts) (250pts + 100pts)

This gives Hoyer a value of 230 points, or a high 3rd round pick, while Cleveland only lose 1 pick.

I don't see any reason to tender Hoyer higher than a 2nd round pick, if someone is happy to give that up, they can take him.

 

[jeffbiologist]

This team is CHEAP guys. If he is worth a 3rd rd pick(hypothetically)and we can basically only tender him at a 2nd(which would be overpaying) AND Mallett has progressed as expected(then HE is worth the 2nd) Hoyer walks. Now even as a FA he isnt going to just walk in ANYWHERE as a #2 without a BB coach sniffing his shorts. If he is going to be a #3 he wont be going anywhere. For those who think he can START, you thought Ocho and Haynesworth were great in August too right??

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This team is CHEAP guys. If he is worth a 3rd rd pick(hypothetically)and we can basically only tender him at a 2nd(which would be overpaying) AND Mallett has progressed as expected(then HE is worth the 2nd) Hoyer walks. Now even as a FA he isnt going to just walk in ANYWHERE as a #2 without a BB coach sniffing his shorts. If he is going to be a #3 he wont be going anywhere. For those who think he can START, you thought Ocho and Haynesworth were great in August too right??

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

 

[Off The Grid]

The Whitehurst trade was to swap 2nds and a future 3rd, so the trade value is over 300 points (wow that was a bad trade). I don't think Hoyer has that much value, although I do think he has some because of the attention he got at last years draft from Michael Lombardi. There are a lot of teams which could have interest in Hoyer, but I think one interesting one is Cleveland. If someone jumps ahead of them in the 1st and takes RGIII (Washington?), then I think they could look at Hoyer as an alternative because this QB class is weak. They also have extra picks from the Julio Jones trade, so a trade would have less of an effect on them than other teams. I think something like

Hoyer + 3rd (95) to Cle for 3rd (68) + 4th (100)
(Hoyer + 120pts) (250pts + 100pts)

This gives Hoyer a value of 230 points, or a high 3rd round pick, while Cleveland only lose 1 pick.

I don't see any reason to tender Hoyer higher than a 2nd round pick, if someone is happy to give that up, they can take him.

Perfect.

I agree with you and the OP: WhiteHurst is the closest barometer of Hoyer's Market Value...And I broke it down ~ on the previous Hoyer Thread, I think ~ that WhiteHurst's Return was the equivalent of a 3rd and a 4th.

***

Of course, The Market changes from year to year, and there are two big, interesting Variables:

1 ~ How does the Patriot Pedigree ~ Brady + Cassell ~ affect Hoyer's Value??

2 ~ How does this year's weak QB Market affect Hoyer's Value??

***

I've been in line with what you suggest for awhile: early 3rd Round Value, I hope.

That would seem to be a slam dunk, except that Hoyer was a UFA, where WhiteHurst was a 3rd or 4th Rounder, and that affects Market Value, even though you could argue it shouldn't.

Then, again: The Patriot Pedigree and the dry QB Market may very well balance that out....or more!!

 

[everlong]

That was a former coach of his being in love with a scrub.

As stated by others it only takes one. Maybe there's a former MSU coach out there.

If he was from OSU I bet he would have more value.

 

[everlong]

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

I watched that the other day for the first time in forever. It was still funny.

Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Okay, a simple "wrong" would've done just fine.

 

[Off The Grid]

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

I watched that the other day for the first time in forever. It was still funny.

Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Okay, a simple "wrong" would've done just fine.

Yeah, a lot of his stuff, I didn't find particularly funny ~ and you could always count on him for at LEAST one Gross Out image that was offensively disgusting...and not in a GOOD way, either...And of course he's been in my Sheeter ever since that ATROCITY of a ReBoot of The Longest Yard, the original of which is STILL one of the best movies, EVER.

But he definitely has a wonderfully twisted perspective that is absolutely One of a Kind.

1 ~ The above quote. EPIC. Our GrandChildren will be quoting that.

2 ~ The Price is WRONG, Beyotch!!

3 ~ Again: Information I could've used YESTERDAY!!!

4 ~ Waaaaaaaaaaaaater sucks!! It really really SUCKS!!

Oh, hell: There are dozens.

 

[p8ryts]

What basis is there for assuming Mallett has progressed enough to be a more viable option as a number 2? Mallett is bigger with a stronger arm but do we know about his decision making and knowledge of the offense? Hoyer has looked decent when he played, he seems to know the offense.

Tender at the second round. I think he is important to the Pats. If Bill tenders him at first round then you know he thinks highly of him.

 

[everlong]

What basis is there for assuming Mallett has progressed enough to be a more viable option as a number 2? Mallett is bigger with a stronger arm but do we know about his decision making and knowledge of the offense? Hoyer has looked decent when he played, he seems to know the offense.

Tender at the second round. I think he is important to the Pats. If Bill tenders him at first round then you know he thinks highly of him.

Read the original post. There's nothing to suggest we have that knowledge. We haven't seen him since the pre-season. Internally the Patriots have a good idea by now of where he's heading. So the premise is IF they think Mallet is ready not that he is.