Quick Reads week 14: The Deep Threat

[pherein]

I found this interesting to think about.

New England fans shouldn't be concerned, though. Based on recent history, deep threats are not necessary to make the playoffs, to win in the postseason, or to hoist the Lombardi trophy. Whatever the eventual fate of the Patriots may be, it won't be decided by a few digits on Gronkowski's stat line.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 14 Quick Reads

 

[DarrylS]

From the same article an interesting take on Tebow..

Not even the most ardent Tebow supporter would be surprised to see the Denver quarterback rank so low in passing statistics, but how do you rush 12 times for 49 yards and get -22 rushing DYAR, especially when you don't fumble even once? A lot of Tebow's runs come on third down, and he often comes up short. He had two first downs in seven third-down runs against Chicago, and though he converted a third-and-16, he also had a 0- and 6-yard gains on third-and-10, a 5-yard gain on third-and-6, a 3-yard gain on third-and-5, and a 1-yard gain on third-and-4.

Not a whole lot of love for, "The Sanchize" either..

The Jets quarterback has been called a lot of things, but "fantasy superstar" is not one of them. On Sunday, though, Sanchez threw two touchdowns and ran for two more against Kansas City. He did nearly all his damage in the first half, though. He didn't complete a pass after halftime, going 0-for-5 with a sack and a lost fumble (although he did pick up two first downs on defensive pass interference calls).

 

[randomk1]

No but it sure would help.

A good D will play press man and crowd the middle and our outside WR are already incapable of making plays and we don't run the ball effectively enough to keep the D on their heels.

Seen it happen before.

It really is going to come down to just Hernandez,Gronk,Welker winning their match ups....which they are pretty damn good at. Maybe a few plays here and there for Branch if the D starts focusing too much on that trio. I don't see Underwood/Ocho contributing all that much....and if somebody is going to do it then my bet is on Underwood.

 

[robbomango]

Thanks Pherein nice article,

A deep threat would be fun to have but I'm okay without it, besides these tight ends are getting it done. I compared WR's and TE's to see how the big TEs stacked up. Not sure if all of them are 100% correct. If there's a dedicated site for this info please let me know.

Fitzgeralds is pretty low, Vernon's a rocket.

peace

 

[stcjones]

Thanks for the link man....very interesting...

I found this interesting to think about.


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 14 Quick Reads

 

[randomk1]

Meh...Fitzgerald is so big and strong and his hands are so damn good plus he has more than enough speed...look at the numbers he is putting up with umm John Skelton/Kolb.

62 rec 1092 yards 17.6 average 7 TDs.

To me he is the best WR in the NFL. It's a shame he doesn't have a more prolific QB.

 

[Gwedd]

I found this interesting to think about.


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 14 Quick Reads

Thanks for the link! Interesting read on a cold, snowy saturday.

 

[Deus Irae]

FO went numeric to define "deep threat" and, in doing so, chose something that would fit the story's premise. The metric used takes 2007 Burress out of the "deep threat" list, for example, because his average was 14.6.


F.O. usually does a much better job than this.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FO went numeric to define "deep threat" and, in doing so, chose something that would fit the story's premise. The metric used takes 2007 Burress out of the "deep threat" list, for example, because his average was 14.6.


F.O. usually does a much better job than this.

To be fair, the author points out that this wasn't meant to be a thorough, in-depth analysis like they would do for their book.

 

[Gumby]

I think to better identify who is a deep threat you need to take away either the YAC or YAContact from the equation. Gronk's 49 yarder was not based on his speed (deep threat) but rather on his Gronkiness.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

No but it sure would help.

A good D will play press man and crowd the middle and our outside WR are already incapable of making plays and we don't run the ball effectively enough to keep the D on their heels.

Seen it happen before.

It really is going to come down to just Hernandez,Gronk,Welker winning their match ups....which they are pretty damn good at. Maybe a few plays here and there for Branch if the D starts focusing too much on that trio. I don't see Underwood/Ocho contributing all that much....and if somebody is going to do it then my bet is on Underwood.

Branch is out so hopefully Ocho or TU steps up if need be.

 

[pherein]

Thanks Pherein nice article,

A deep threat would be fun to have but I'm okay without it, besides these tight ends are getting it done. I compared WR's and TE's to see how the big TEs stacked up. Not sure if all of them are 100% correct. If there's a dedicated site for this info please let me know.

Fitzgeralds is pretty low, Vernon's a rocket.

peace

Thanks for the work, Im going to post this on our Saints site, to see what they make of it. After reading the article I noticed I was thinking to traditional, and that why can't Megatron be a TE rather than a WR. It kind of shocked me to find out we are seen as not having a Deep threat. But I guess from the perspective and data he is using , we really don't.
From a lot of deep threat discussions I have seen here, but felt unqualified to post on, I was also surprised to see the possibility that you do have one.
If Denver knows this data, then I can see them as being confused about who Champ should cover because they struggle covering the #2WR , according to other stats.

 

[pherein]

I think to better identify who is a deep threat you need to take away either the YAC or YAContact from the equation. Gronk's 49 yarder was not based on his speed (deep threat) but rather on his Gronkiness.

I read another article there today that might help you figure that out, if you wanted to. And this kind of explains why I think Gronk is a better runner after the catch than Graham.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 In-Season YAC+

Combined with these findings maybe you can come up with something
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/2011-season-receiving-plusminus

It did really surprise me welker had so many receptions, 4 NO players are at the top, and that Gronk had a better % of catches then Graham, when I 1st looked at it.

 

[supafly]

Nice contribution to our site, buddy--as always of course.

I wish that there were fans of other teams that contributed as much as you, and were respectful like you are.

As far as the analysis, that's an interesting thing to think about; although many of us still wish that Brady had himself a deep threat to keep the defense a bit more honest.

I also didn't realize that Larry Fitzgerald was quite that slow, that's interesting.

 

[borg]

From that list of WRs....I view half those guys as more possession+ guys. The + being suprior physicality that makes them tough to bring down....aka Marshall, Fitzgerald, Bowe.
The true deep threats are/were Irvin and Bruce. (I can't recall how Andre Reed was used). Back in his prime, Boldin was a threat also.
My list of 2011 deep threats consists of Mike Wallace and Desean Jackson(more threat than reality this year). There speed scares the crap out of Ds.

As far as the Pats WRs go, I have to believe BB views production in terms of %. Check out the completion %'s when Brady targets the TEs and Welker.....+70%. When Brady starts aiming towards the sidelines or deep, the %s drop dramatically....so why accept lower% throws when the success lies in front of Brady.

If you watch how teams with the big stud WRs operate, Megatron, Green, Julio Jones (3 examples) , their patterns often consist of sideline jump balls with the expectation that there guy has superior skills to out battle the DBs. Watch the endzone pass attempts....these corner fade, timing, jump balls. I see it over and over again.....and I always come away thanking BB for having 2 TEs with skill enough to get open without relying on these fades. It is all about %s and getting open...not jump balls.
That being said....Fitzgerald would dominate on NE. to dream.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Ultimately we all know that flawed teams have and do win Super Bowls. It's usually about matchups with the teams you play along the way that is what's most important.

But no team WANTS to go into the playoffs with offensive deficiencies and I expect you'll see Belichick try to give Brady a target that can stretch the field in the offseason.

For now, it is what it is - there's no credible deep threat. Ideally you want a guy who is both tall and fast - and at the very least Gronkowski has the "tall" side well covered of course he's very tough to take down.

But if the Pats play against a team able to take advantage of the lack of a deep threat and pressure Brady, the offense is less productive. We've seen that before and don't want to repeat that - and sadly, with no deep threat, it could happen again.

 

[Mack Herron]

For now, it is what it is - there's no credible deep threat. Ideally you want a guy who is both tall and fast - and at the very least Gronkowski has the "tall" side well covered of course he's very tough to take down.

But if the Pats play against a team able to take advantage of the lack of a deep threat and pressure Brady, the offense is less productive. We've seen that before and don't want to repeat that - and sadly, with no deep threat, it could happen again.

Underwood is fast and has gotten open behind the defense. His problem has been catching the ball, both at Jacksonville and NE.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Underwood is fast and has gotten open behind the defense. His problem has been catching the ball, both at Jacksonville and NE.

Yes... I think it goes without saying that to be a credible deep threat you have to actually catch the ball.

Believe me - I'd be happy if Underwood stepped up and gave defenses something to think about in the final games - that would go a long way.

Green Bay provides a good example of the value or lack of value in the deep game... take away Jennings and the deep ball for Green Bay and that makes things a lot more difficult for Rogers, as evidenced by the game's outcome.

That makes what Brady's done without a deep receiver all season all the more impressive - but still doesn't mean Brady WANTS to be without a deep threat any more than Rogers did today.

 

[pherein]

Nice contribution to our site, buddy--as always of course.

I wish that there were fans of other teams that contributed as much as you, and were respectful like you are.

As far as the analysis, that's an interesting thing to think about; although many of us still wish that Brady had himself a deep threat to keep the defense a bit more honest.

I also didn't realize that Larry Fitzgerald was quite that slow, that's interesting.

wow, supafly , thats very nice of you to say.Thank you N.E. has been some of the best fans we have met in New Orleans, and Im not just saying I do like your post because I do,lol. They even put up with our grammar

I still can't fathom that Fitzgerald is slower than Graham or Gronk. Well Coston and Meachum are FA next year we can't keep them both with signing sproles and Moore. Probably only cost you a 1-2 round draft pick. You can just the one we game you back for Ingram