What went wrong: one cold hard fact

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I think you're being a little bit harsh, considering the way the game went...

- Steelers take opening possession into endzone for TD, kill 5:52 of clock.

- Pats throw on 1st down for 8, BJGE gets stuffed for -1, then throw incomplete on 3rd down and punt. Too early to critique them for lack-of-committment to the running game at this point.

- Steelers take 2nd possession, drive for FG and kill 7:50 of clock. We're now in the 2nd quarter and the Pats have had the ball for 3 plays and are down 10-0.

- Pats 2nd possession goes: 7yd pass, Faulk run for 2, BJGE run for 2 (and 1st down), 7yd pass, Faulk run for 5 (and 1st down), Penalty on Steelers on pass play, Faulk run for 2, Penalty on Steelers on pass play...so far so good. Then the crap hits the fan with Mankins' false start...cannot do that against this Steelers D...followed by 2 incompletions, a sack and finally a punt. The Pats definitely started off the drive using their running game. The drive fell apart mostly at the false start so again I think it's too early to criticize the Pats for not trying to establish the running game. Don't forget they were down 10-0.

- Steelers throw a pick and the Pats take 2 plays to get within 10-7, the first of which is a 6yd run by Faulk.

- Steelers answer with a 10-play TD drive, killing 5:39, giving the Pats the ball back with just 2:41 left in the half.

- In their 2-minute offense, Pats drive down to the Steelers 30 before Vollmer gives up an awful sack to Woodley on 1st down. The Pats salvage enough yards to kick the FG and go into halftime down only 7.

After seeing all of this go down in this manner, you *still* decided to stop watching the game at this point?

Regards,
Chris

 

[SyN65]

LOL, the secondary/defense is God awful and BB has been terrible at drafting.

Lets look at the top 3 rounds where a lot of the talent is and how well he has been since 2006:

1st RD busts:

Brandon Meriweather
Laurence Maroney

2nd RD busts

Darius Butler
Terrence Wheatley
Ron Brace
Jermaine Cunningham

3rd RD busts

David Thomas
Shawn Crable
Brandon Tate
Tyrone McKenzie

Since 2006 Belichick has drafted these guys in the first 3 rounds who are alright/better than average:

Chung - Decent
Volmer - Decent
Mayo - Above average, not exactly a playmaker
McCourty - Jury is out, has had a terrible 2nd season
Spikes - Decent
Price - Can't even see the field even with Ocho here (Although I think he should)

His drafting is TERRIBLE. How can you be this blind!? It's right in front of you!

 

[CrazyDave]

Agreed about the running game (as indicated in my "Where's the running game?" thread.
and the fact that we were "behind" most of the game is completely irrelevant. Behind by how much? So, we run ONLY when we're ahead? Nonsense.

 

[Patspsycho]

I think you're being a little bit harsh, considering the way the game went...

- Steelers take opening possession into endzone for TD, kill 5:52 of clock.

- Pats throw on 1st down for 8, BJGE gets stuffed for -1, then throw incomplete on 3rd down and punt. Too early to critique them for lack-of-committment to the running game at this point.

- Steelers take 2nd possession, drive for FG and kill 7:50 of clock. We're now in the 2nd quarter and the Pats have had the ball for 3 plays and are down 10-0.

- Pats 2nd possession goes: 7yd pass, Faulk run for 2, BJGE run for 2 (and 1st down), 7yd pass, Faulk run for 5 (and 1st down), Penalty on Steelers on pass play, Faulk run for 2, Penalty on Steelers on pass play...so far so good. Then the crap hits the fan with Mankins' false start...cannot do that against this Steelers D...followed by 2 incompletions, a sack and finally a punt. The Pats definitely started off the drive using their running game. The drive fell apart mostly at the false start so again I think it's too early to criticize the Pats for not trying to establish the running game. Don't forget they were down 10-0.

- Steelers throw a pick and the Pats take 2 plays to get within 10-7, the first of which is a 6yd run by Faulk.

- Steelers answer with a 10-play TD drive, killing 5:39, giving the Pats the ball back with just 2:41 left in the half.

- In their 2-minute offense, Pats drive down to the Steelers 30 before Vollmer gives up an awful sack to Woodley on 1st down. The Pats salvage enough yards to kick the FG and go into halftime down only 7.

After seeing all of this go down in this manner, you *still* decided to stop watching the game at this point?

Regards,
Chris

Absolutely, because it still just doesn't change the fact: when we are one-dimensional, we lose, period.

 

[Patspsycho]

LOL, the secondary/defense is God awful and BB has been terrible at drafting.

Lets look at the top 3 rounds where a lot of the talent is and how well he has been since 2006:

1st RD busts:

Brandon Meriweather
Laurence Maroney

2nd RD busts

Darius Butler
Terrence Wheatley
Ron Brace
Jermaine Cunningham

3rd RD busts

David Thomas
Shawn Crable
Brandon Tate
Tyrone McKenzie

Since 2006 Belichick has drafted these guys in the first 3 rounds who are alright/better than average:

Chung - Decent
Volmer - Decent
Mayo - Above average, not exactly a playmaker
McCourty - Jury is out, has had a terrible 2nd season
Spikes - Decent
Price - Can't even see the field even with Ocho here (Although I think he should)

His drafting is TERRIBLE. How can you be this blind!? It's right in front of you!

Please find any other team that doesn't have its share of busts or average picks.

 

[SyN65]

Please find any other team that doesn't have its share of busts or average picks.

lol, EVERY team has their fair share of busts but BB CONSISTENTLY misses at the top of the draft. I was under the impression that the Patriots pride themselves on building through the draft and use FA to patch up the missing holes in the team. If that's your philosophy than you can't be this bad drafting every year.

A lot of his misses are on DEFENSIVE talent. Particularly players on the secondary. Our defense sucks this year and has been getting worse every year primarily because BB consistently sucks in the draft.

 

[Sciz]

Please find any other team that doesn't have its share of busts or average picks.

Right. Any multi-year drafting history will look bad in a vacuum. You have to compare with other teams to see that even 50% over the first two rounds is pretty good.

 

[Patspsycho]

I'd agree with all of the points of the original poster except 1: I don't agree that running the ball effectively is one of the major causative factors in preventing losses.

Correlation does not equal causation.

When we are ahead in the 4th quarter, we are likely to win, and we are likely to run the ball more to control the clock.

When we are behind in the 4th quarter, we are less likely to win, and we are less likely to run the ball more because we want to conserve the clock.

It's like the old correlation that says that a rich person is more likely to drive a Mercedes than a poor person. Thus, does driving a Mercedes make you become rich? No!

Balance between run and pass is good. I don't necessariy think you have to have one 10+ carry person to have a good plan for any particular game, though.

In the last two years, we've only been blown out once (Cleveland). When you take that game out of the equation, our average margin of loss has been EIGHT points. That's scarcely reason to abandon the run game, or veer away from the balanced attack.

Second, as I've already pointed out, it doesn't matter if our run game isn't outstanding- we still have the threat of play-action which has been devastating. Our biggest gains last night (e.g., Gronk) along with our points, were out of the play-action.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Another thing it seems in our losses, is that the defense does something significantly different than it usually does, such as playing way more man coverage. Somebody surmised that we game plan *too much* and when we see something we don't expect, we can't adapt to it. I wouldn't believe it, except I watched it. Brady seemed to have no consistant answer to man coverage. He said that to beat man coverage, you have to make plays and force them out of man coverage. We didn't do that because they got all up in Welker's business, and none of our other WRs are able to seperate in that kind of bump and grind and molest coverage. That allowed their pass rushers to do their own sort of mollestation on our O-line and flush Brady from the pocket. How do we counter this? WITH A RUN GAME! If their secondary is busy mollesting our receivers and their line is busy collapsing our pocket, what does that leave? Big holes to run through.
Yes, Lawfirm has a hurt toe, yes Faulk is 57 years old, yes our rookies are rookies, but if we are serious about it, we can stuff some runs right up their throat which will cause them to change their game.
You have to attack their weakness, once that weakness is attacked, they must adjust to it which allows you to attack other areas, but if you only attack the one place they are going balls out to defend, you're going to end up not being successful.

 

[Patspsycho]

lol, EVERY team has their fair share of busts but BB CONSISTENTLY misses at the top of the draft. I was under the impression that the Patriots pride themselves on building through the draft and use FA to patch up the missing holes in the team. If that's your philosophy than you can't be this bad drafting every year.

A lot of his misses are on DEFENSIVE talent. Particularly players on the secondary. Our defense sucks this year and has been getting worse every year primarily because BB consistently sucks in the draft.

Then how come his picks consistently produces one pro-bowler every year he has been here? Isn't that consistency?

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, Lawfirm has a hurt toe, yes Faulk is 57 years old, yes our rookies are rookies, but if we are serious about it, we can stuff some runs right up their throat which will cause them to change their game.

No, they can't. That's the point.

 

[Kontradiction]

Belichick uses the run as a change of pace against the Steelers. We've always relied on Brady to beat them. This time around, Vollmer was rusty and couldn't block a 12 year old, and the receivers were getting re-routed and otherwise bullied on the outside which made Brady have to hold the ball longer (like he's had to in the past two games). With all of that in mind, added onto the fact that the defense couldn't get Brady on the field with enough opportunities to win, I really don't think running the ball more would have helped...

 

[SyN65]

Then how come his picks consistently produces one pro-bowler every year he has been here? Isn't that consistency?

First of all, Pro Bowl means nothing.

Second of all, since Pats pile up like 10 picks a year he better hit on ONE of them.

He hasn't picked any PLAY MAKERS. Who the **** cares about Pro Bowlers.

Lets look at drafts since 2004:

2004:

Wilfork - Pro Bowler, not a play maker IMO but very good at his position

2005:

Mankins - Pro Bowler, one of the best in the league at his position along with Wilfork.

04 and 05 produced good players but the team is suffering from terrible drafts since 06 imo.

2006:

Gostkowski. Pro Bowler. Kicker. Woo hoo.

2007:

Meriweather. Pro Bowler. Ummm...?

2008:

Mayo. Pro Bowler. Not a playmaker. This guy isn't Lewis/Willis/Beason/Harris. Needs to make more big plays IMO.

2009:

Vollmer? I think he's the only one in the PB? Not exactly elite.

2010:

McCourty. LOL, having a terrible 2nd season. Probably didn't deserve the PB that year but whatever.

You could make the arguement Gronk/Hernandez would be Pro bowlers as well. BB did a great job in the 2010 draft but unfortunately it wasn't defensive talent.

2011:

We'll see.

 

[Patspsycho]

Belichick uses the run as a change of pace against the Steelers. We've always relied on Brady to beat them. This time around, Vollmer was rusty and couldn't block a 12 year old, and the receivers were getting re-routed and otherwise bullied on the outside which made Brady have to hold the ball longer (like he's had to in the past two games). With all of that in mind, added onto the fact that the defense couldn't get Brady on the field with enough opportunities to win, I really don't think running the ball more would have helped...

We've always depended on Brady to beat the zone, but the Steelers changed up their approach drastically and played the best man coverage they've played in a long time- and we simply were slow to adjust to it (by calling stacks, crossing, rubs, and the smash).

Vollmer was really rusty and I have to question why they didn't leave Solder in and use Gronk #2 as the 3rd TE.

Whenever we got on the field it was a quick 3 and out because based on the personnel we brought there, the Steelers knew we wouldn't run (Faulk is not a power back) so they didn't compress the box.

What is the best way to defeat a defense playing man coverage? Run the ball and force them to stack the box because that takes away from man coverage.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Absolutely, because it still just doesn't change the fact: when we are one-dimensional, we lose, period.

Before the final 2-minute drive of the first half, the Pats ran 14 plays (not counting three nullified by penalties...two of which gave the Pats first downs): 6 runs, 8 passes. I'm sorry if I'm not seeing the one-dimensional label. I'll tell you what I am seeing: Only 14 fricking offensive plays up to that point. The D needed to make a stop and couldn't.

Of course the Pats were going to throw once in the 2-minute drive and were doing well...then on 1st and 10 from the Steelers 30 with about a minute left and the clock ticking, Vollmer gave up a horrendous sack...we're talking "Max Lane in SB31" bad or "Nick Kaczur vs. Michael Strahan in SB42, leading to going for it on 4th-and-13" bad. That wasn't the fault of being one-dimensional. That was the fault of Vollmer failing miserably at pass blocking 101.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Patjew]

Good post, as usual.

You really stopped watching?

 

[Patspsycho]

Before the final 2-minute drive, the Pats ran 14 plays (not counting three nullified by penalties...two of which gave the Pats first downs): 6 runs, 8 passes. I'm sorry if I'm not seeing the one-dimensional label. I'll tell you what I am seeing: Only 14 fricking offensive plays up to that point. The D needed to make a stop and couldn't.

Of course the Pats were going to throw once in the 2-minute drive and were doing well...then on 1st and 10 from the Steelers 30 with about a minute left and the clock ticking, Vollmer gave up a horrendous sack...we're talking "Max Lane in SB31" bad or "Nick Kaczur vs. Michael Strahan in SB42, leading to going for it on 4th-and-13" bad. That wasn't the fault of being one-dimensional. That was the fault of Vollmer failing miserably at pass blocking 101.

Regards,
Chris

I cannot argue with you on this as I did not watch the 2nd half.

 

[Patspsycho]

Good post, as usual.

You really stopped watching?

Yes I did. It just wasn't getting any better, for me.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Makes sense on the first drive, but it was one drive, we punted and thats that. Second drive we are down 10, not only that but we are down 10 with a defense that plays deep and allows first down after first down (giving us little hope to get the ball back in a decent time span), there is no reason to blame us for not running after that.

We don't have the run game to run the ball down by double digits, we don't have a guy that can break off 15-20 yds, we either run for 2-4 yds or pass short, we did the latter, our running game is the short pass and unfortunately the short pass didn't get YAC yesterday.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I cannot argue with you on this as I did not watch the 2nd half.

This was the first half. The 2-minute drive I'm referring to is the end of the 1st half. I'll edit my post to make that clear.

Regards,
Chris