What's changed since Week 2?

[Metaphors]

1) OL Stability

Not only getting Mankins but the OL (including TEs) has really come together with pass protection and run blocking. If the Jets don't get pressure bringing just 4, the Pats should be in good shape.

2) Offense in Rhythm

The Pats don't need balance...but they do need to show balance. Being in the shotgun all the time makes life easier on the edge rushers and safeties. While Brady finished with a rating in the 70's, his rating was about 120 when throwing to players who will be in the game on Monday. On that final fumble, Brady looked off an open Gronkowski to find Moss (double-covered) on the right. I feel pretty confident that won't happen again.

3) Maturity

Hernandez can legally drink now. Gronkowski has Brady's confidence, particularly in the red zone. McCourty is comfortable as the #1 CB. Cunningham is finding his groove and will be matched against a less-than-100% Woody. Hadn't even dusted off Deaderick in September yet. These players are better just by playing these last 2+ months.

4) About 60 Degrees

Sanchez has so few games in freezing temperatures that you can't even spot trends. Last year, he was a mess against the Falcons and didn't have to do much in the 2 Cincy games. Thiis year he has been lucky with the weather situations. That changes on Monday and shouldn't get any better for the rest of the season. Your body reacts differently when you are sweating in freezing weather. The ball feels significantly different with temps in the 20's. With the Jets running game not dominating, I would expect Sanchez to have to make a number of plays to win.

5) Extra Days

I don't anticipate the Jets doing anything different than they have done all year. Extra prep probably doesn't mean much to them besides some extra rest for the players. I have no doubt that Belichick will use the extra days to devise, install and practice a gameplan with wrinkles the Jets will need to adjust to on the fly. Belichick has a pretty solid record of turning around an early division loss.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cromartie actually struggles with a smaller reciever who come out of their breaks quick.

The beauty of this match up is the lack of S help Revis will get.
Revis will be more than equiped to handle anyone NE can throw at him. However, by isolating Revis it's allot easier to use him to create space for other players, ie, TE.....

Welker in the slot, and safe from press coverage, will beat Revis all day. The Jets will probably have Revis and Cromartie on Branch and Tate most of the time, and they'll have Wilson getting help in the slot against Welker. That will leave Gronkowski against either a safety without the size to match up, or a linebacker that can't keep up. Putting out Hernandez would mean that the Jets would either have to go with another DB, or they'd get killed by Hernandez v. LB.

The Patriots will be able to dictate, just as they did in week 2, even in the second half. People, especially Jets fans, ignore that part of what happened in the first meeting. The question will come down to whether or not Brady can connect on the throws this time around.


Given how well TB's been playing lately, I'm going to side with the Patriots offense in this matchup.

 

[stcjones]

The Patriots no longer have a consistent deep threat

The Patriots have a viable Kevin Faulk replacement that's been established

The Patriots have more quickness in the receiving corps

Brady is more familiar with his receivers, and the throws have been much more accurate

The defense is going with a lot more "big nickel", meaning 3 safeties rather than 3 CBs

Cunningham has progressed with regards to the pass rush

Brace/Deaderick have improved the run defense

Patriots kicking game is nowhere near as strong with Gostkowski out

Sanchez has returned to being a lousy quarterback

Holmes is a tremendous addition on the field for the Jets

Thomlinson is either worn out or just in a slump

Arrington for Butler and, seemingly, more zone defense out of New England


There are certainly more differences, but that's a start

and the throws have been much more accurate"

This has been one of the biggest changes......I have been awestruck at the incredible accuracy and precision in Brady's passes as of late.......Un-freaking real.......His first TD in the endzone to Gronk against the squeelers was one of the greatest throws ever made.....In short, He has been on fire......Other differences:

Mankins has been awesome since coming back giving Brady even MORE time.....

Branch is in as you point out......brings a whole different dimension to the O when he is healthy......

Biggest things are the D has gotten more time to play together and are better than their "ratings" if that makes sense....and the offense is actually more efficient and harder to predict now that Moss is gone......Like you say....Brady was so focused on Moss during first game....and tried to force throws....Now he has MORE targets and as a result is MUCH MORE accurate, DEADLY, and CONFIDENT......very CONFIDENT and fired up.....something Jets fans should be worried about.....

 

[stcjones]

If Rex locks Revis on Welk (which I doubt he would ever do) that will open up more opps for Hernandez, Gronk, Crump, Woodhead, BJGE (who occas comes out of backfield for receptions), Branch (and yes, cromartie will struggle with Branch if he(Deion) is 100%).....Edelman.......and Lets not forget TATE!!!.....everyone is forgetting Tate!!!! Tate is a wild card......IT is taking him along time to get started but he HAS shown flashes of brilliance and of course had some big KR's......let the Jests leave him covered by a LB all game.......We have alot of weapons now.....and Brady is playing the best, most confident I have seen him in awhile.....

 

[Uncle Rico]

Some good stuff from ESPN stats

Patriots becoming a second half team - Stats & Info Blog - ESPN

Here’s a part of the New England Patriots’ revival that hasn’t been discussed. Last season, New England had few problems scoring points in the first half but was ineffective after halftime. Last season, New England scored 282 points in the first half and just 145 points in the second half and overtime. This season in 11 games, Bill Belichick's team has scored 136 points in the first half and a whopping 198 points after halftime.

They're obviosuly not aware of this thread so didn't break it down to "since week 2," so I did:

In the first two weeks, Pats scored 38 points in the first half. They scored 14 (all in week 1) in the second.

So, first two weeks: 38 first half, 14 second half
Nine game since: 98 first half, 184 second half

 

[jah]

Am I the only one who remembers Welker being out for a good portion of the part of the Jets game where the Pats got killed or was I just hallucinating?

 

[Hitman Harris]

Am I the only one who remembers Welker being out for a good portion of the part of the Jets game where the Pats got killed or was I just hallucinating?

Do you remember Revis being out for the entire second half as well. How about no Calvin pace, Trevor Pryce, or Santonio Holmes.
How about this stat. The 2010 New England Patriots are 0-2 agains the Ryan brother's defenses. 14 points in each.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Do you remember Revis being out for the entire second half as well. How about no Calvin pace, Trevor Pryce, or Santonio Holmes.
How about this stat. The 2010 New England Patriots are 0-2 agains the Ryan brother's defenses. 14 points in each.

All pretty much covered in the original post.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Some good stuff from ESPN stats

Patriots becoming a second half team - Stats & Info Blog - ESPN



They're obviosuly not aware of this thread so didn't break it down to "since week 2," so I did:

In the first two weeks, Pats scored 38 points in the first half. They scored 14 (all in week 1) in the second.

So, first two weeks: 38 first half, 14 second half
Nine game since: 98 first half, 184 second half

I think the conditioning of the youth movement has made this team less likely to wear down on defense while wearing down the oppositions defense.
Not to jinx anything but, I think the multiple rotations have kept a lot of players fresh, too.

 

[WhiZa]

Revis was full-strength in the week 2 game. He hurt his hamstring and his pride after Moss grabbed the one handed TD.

 

[Rob0729]

There is a big misconception that Cromartie cannot cover small, quick receivers.

He may be better suited for covering deep threats because of his long stride and frame, but while not as good as the former, he is still a great CB against all types of receivers.


Ochocinco is as quick and a good route runner as they come, he held him to 4 catches for 40 yards, and 0 in the 2nd half.

Cromartie can cover Branch, a lot of people make it seem like he has 0 lateral movement in his game.

Chad Ochocinco is 6-1. Not exactly what you would call a small quick WR who comes out of breaks quick. Chad Ochocinco is closer to the big down the field threats than a small, quick receiver. Besides, Ochocinco has been mediocre all year and had four games where he had fewer yards than he did vs. the Jets.

Cromartie is 6-2, 210lbs. It goes against the law of physics for him to keep up with the same quick routes as a 5-8 or 5-9 receiver. That is why the Pats have so many small WRs who run the routes they do. It is because big WRs like Moss just can't run them. It is a physical impossibility, because of torque and leverage that small guys have and bigger guys don't.

 

[tobias funke]

I was attacked by a number of people when I suggested that the Moss trade had the potential of being a huge positive for the offense.

I'm glad to see people starting to come around on the idea that having Moss on the team doesn't instantly make you that much better. And this is coming from a very big fan of Randy's. For whatever his faults, I love the guy and the plays he made for this team, but I believe wholeheartedly that if this team is going to beat an opportunistic and gutsy Jets team, they're going to need to play less predictably, and Moss is anything but unpredictable.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Chad Ochocinco is 6-1. Not exactly what you would call a small quick WR who comes out of breaks quick. Chad Ochocinco is closer to the big down the field threats than a small, quick receiver. Besides, Ochocinco has been mediocre all year and had four games where he had fewer yards than he did vs. the Jets.

Cromartie is 6-2, 210lbs. It goes against the law of physics for him to keep up with the same quick routes as a 5-8 or 5-9 receiver. That is why the Pats have so many small WRs who run the routes they do. It is because big WRs like Moss just can't run them. It is a physical impossibility, because of torque and leverage that small guys have and bigger guys don't.

Don't burst any bubbles.

 

[Patspsycho]

There is a big misconception that Cromartie cannot cover small, quick receivers.

He may be better suited for covering deep threats because of his long stride and frame, but while not as good as the former, he is still a great CB against all types of receivers.


Ochocinco is as quick and a good route runner as they come, he held him to 4 catches for 40 yards, and 0 in the 2nd half.

Cromartie can cover Branch, a lot of people make it seem like he has 0 lateral movement in his game.

Yet he got beat for a TD by Welker and his bum knee in week 2, and he was playing man coverage on Welker.

Fast-forward to week 13, and Welker's knee is much better now and stronger to the point where he is able to power in for a TD as he did in Detroit.

The fact is: yes, Cromartie does have trouble with fast, shifty receivers. That was pretty obvious on tape.

 

[Rob0729]

Both teams are different, but not all for the better.

1.) The Jets' running game has stalled. Yes, they ran for a lot of yards against the Bengals, but that was because of one play in the Seminole offense and that they were protecting a lead late in the second half. Yes, they are ranked second in rushing yards, but that is deceiving. Shonn Greene has been average at best and Tomlinson is quickly becoming the LT of 2008 and 2009 after starting as LT of 2006.

2.) The Jets defense has not been nearly as good as advertised. In fact they have been downright awful at times (see how they let the Texans back in the game so quickly). They are not getting pressure on the QB much better than the Pats have even with a lot of blitzes and the return of Pace (Pace's only has played well in 2 or 3 games).

3.) The Jets offense has become more vertical. Yes, Sanchez is hitting guys down the field and making big plays in key situations.

4.) The Jets' offense as a whole has been inconsistent. They look to sleepwalk through half or most of the game and then turn it on near the end of the game. You can't do that with the Pats.

5.) The Pats' special teams have not been as good. Gostkowski is gone and that has hurt them in the kick off department. Their coverage has not been strong nor are they getting touchbacks on a regular basis. Not good going against Brad Smith.

6.) The offense is clicking on all cylindars. Brady is on fire and has been near perfect in recent weeks. Branch is reimerged. Woodhead is better than Faulk has been in recent years in receiving and running the ball. Welker looks back. The TEs are making huge plays. This is the best offense in the NFL hitting its stride at the right time.

7.) The Pats defense is better than their stats appear. A lot of the yards and points they are giving up is in garbage time and late in games. They held the Steelers to 24-3 going into the fourth, the Chargers 20-3 going into the 4th, and the Colts 31-14 early in the fourth. They can be dominant for parts of the game (as when the Pats outscored the Lions 35-7 in second half on Thanksgiving), but haven't put a complete game together. It could help the Pats get an insurmountable lead going into the fourth on Monday night if the Jets continue their trend of starting slow. Also, McCourty has emerged since he last played as a very good CB who nearly shutdown Megatron when he was covering him (he only got one pass against McCourty).

Jets fans seem to harp on the additions of Holmes, Pace, and a full strength Revis. They seem to ignore Tomlinson is no longer talked about as the comeback player of the year or that even with Pace and a healthy Holmes that the Jets don't have a top flight defense like last year and cannot pressure the QB.

 

[Kontradiction]

The biggest change, in my opinion, will be that Brady will be expecting those coverage looks that the Jets gave him in Week 2.

 

[Rob0729]

Yet he got beat for a TD by Welker and his bum knee in week 2, and he was playing man coverage on Welker.

Fast-forward to week 13, and Welker's knee is much better now and stronger to the point where he is able to power in for a TD as he did in Detroit.

The fact is: yes, Cromartie does have trouble with fast, shifty receivers. That was pretty obvious on tape.

Revis does too. Revis even admits that even if his fans can't.

 

[jah]

Do you remember Revis being out for the entire second half as well. How about no Calvin pace, Trevor Pryce, or Santonio Holmes.
How about this stat. The 2010 New England Patriots are 0-2 agains the Ryan brother's defenses. 14 points in each.

I love how defensive you got there.

 

[Anj]

Do you remember Revis being out for the entire second half as well. How about no Calvin pace, Trevor Pryce, or Santonio Holmes.
How about this stat. The 2010 New England Patriots are 0-2 agains the Ryan brother's defenses. 14 points in each.

Trevor Pryce? Seriously? The only thing he's done all year is hurt the lions kicker on a penalty...
He's not really been a game-changer...

 

[Deus Irae]

Trevor Pryce? Seriously? The only thing he's done all year is hurt the lions kicker on a penalty...
He's not really been a game-changer...

Well, taking out that kicker sure changed the Jets/Lions game...