Which player(s) has been the biggest disappointment so far?

[nashvillepatsfan]

I'm sure he is in whatever fictional world that is you live in. Unless he does something remarkable in the second half of the season I am going to be personally disappointed with what he's done on offense.

Its not fiction. If you want to be disappointed, go ahead, but in his 'first' year , I'm satisfied with his progression.

 

[Calciumee]

I love that this thread is 7 pages, and the surprise thread is 8 posts

 

[ausbacker]

Its not fiction. If you want to be disappointed, go ahead, but in his 'first' year , I'm satisfied with his progression.

When you work out the simple mathematics it is. I'm disappointed because I expected more from Tate. Even Dez Bryant is making him look pedestrian in a completely dysfunctional side.

 

[IllegalContact]

Ignoring 2000, since it was a 3 pass "season":

Brady's 2010 comp% is 63.8, higher than any year prior to 2007 except for his 63.9% in 2001.

Brady's 2010 sack% is 4.7. It was never lower than that prior to 2007.

Brady's 2010 TD% is 5.4, higher than any year prior to 2007 except for his 5.9 in 2004.

Brady's 2010 INT% is 1.5. Prior to 2007, it had never been lower than 2.3.

Brady's 2010 QB rating is 95.7. Prior to 2007, it had never been higher than 92.6

Brady's 2010 TD/INT ratio is 14:4, which is 3.5:1. Prior to 2007, his best TD/INT ratio was 2:1 (28:14 twice and 24:12 once).


What we are seeing right now is an older, better Brady now running an offense more like the pre-2007 offense, but with a receiving corps that currently has a bad mix of young, inexperienced, injured and questionably talented players, and the worst running game this team's had since he's been the starter. As I've noted in a few places this week, Brady hasn't been perfect, but he's been damned good.

you can have numbers like this and still be relatively ineffective which is something he has sort of been this year. granted, the actual plays that killed the pats vs the browns weren't on him, but he did not look good out there

I don't blame brady tho.....I blame the front office for going through training camp with a primary RB and a primary WR that he simply trades away during the middle of the season (maroney and moss). not that these guys hsould have been kept, but you can't expect the offense to run smoothly while making middle of the season changes like that. I put the situation on the front office.

 

[blackglass3]

I love that this thread is 7 pages, and the surprise thread is 8 posts

Welcome to NegativePatsFans.com!

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I love that this thread is 7 pages, and the surprise thread is 8 posts

Well of course. Being we are 2-6 and tied for last place in the NFL we have a lot more to complain about than positive stuff to discuss.

 

[ATippett56]

Biggest disappointments:

Darius Butler
Tully Banta-Cain (where's the pass rush?)
Brandon Meriweather

 

[JackBauer]

I'm sure he is in whatever fictional world that is you live in. Unless he does something remarkable in the second half of the season I am going to be personally disappointed with what he's done on offense.

I'm personally disappointed in you, as you're usually a better a better poster than this.

Tate's projected numbers through the 16 game season: 32 receptions, 502 yards, 2 TDs.

Terrell Owens had 36 receptions, 520 yards, 4 TDs his rookie season.
Reggie Wayne had 27 receptions, 345 yards, 0 TDs.
Miles Austin didn't do much until he blew up in his fourth season.
Brandon Marshall had 20 receptions, 309 yards, 2 TDs.

...and so on.

Blaming the FO for putting more pressure on Tate than he's ready to handle, especially when considering the not-so-stellar track record of first year receivers on this team, is warranted. But Tate's upside as a wide receiver on this team remains to be determined.

 

[JackBauer]

When you work out the simple mathematics it is. I'm disappointed because I expected more from Tate. Even Dez Bryant is making him look pedestrian in a completely dysfunctional side.

Of course, Dez Bryant was the 24th pick of the first round, and was being called one of the best WR prospects of the past decade.

 

[jbb9s]

Terrell Owens had 36 receptions, 520 yards, 4 TDs his rookie season.
Reggie Wayne had 27 receptions, 345 yards, 0 TDs.
Miles Austin didn't do much until he blew up in his fourth season.
Brandon Marshall had 20 receptions, 309 yards, 2 TDs.

...and so on.
.

Jack - you are being a bit disingenuous here. Unfortunately, you have found 4 players who has career trajectory that fit the profile needed to meet your case...

I love how you say ".....and so on." And so on what? Maybe that 350 receivers over the last 10 years have come into this league, didn't do crap for 3 or 4 years and are now delivering packages for UPS? Because I can easily find them out there.

Your argument is akin to someone claiming that BB should trade Hoyer for two first rounds picks... Of course, who wouldn't want a future 2 time MVP and super bowl winner. After all, you ever hear of the UDFA Kurt Warner?

 

[JackBauer]

Jack - you are being a bit disingenuous here. Unfortunately, you have found 4 players who has career trajectory that fit the profile needed to meet your case...

I love how you say ".....and so on." And so on what? Maybe that 350 receivers over the last 10 years have come into this league, didn't do crap for 3 or 4 years and are now delivering packages for UPS? Because I can easily find them out there.

Your argument is akin to someone claiming that BB should trade Hoyer for two first rounds picks... Of course, who wouldn't want a future 2 time MVP and super bowl winner. After all, you ever hear of the UDFA Kurt Warner?

It's not disingenuous at all. Anyone who follows football knows you give wide receivers until their third year to acclimate to the NFL game. I simply went to the top WRs by yardage this season and picked the ones most know as elite (i.e. omitting players like Brandon Lloyd, who also happen to fit the pattern).

Your comparative argument, frankly, is a steaming pile because I wasn't assigning any future value to Tate, only stating that a rational approach dictates that we exercise some patience. I'm not sure if you noticed, but some of the forum's resident geniuses are already likening him to Bethel Johnson.

 

[mgteich]

If folks expected Tate to come back from injury with no real experience and be a respectable #1 wideout, I can understand why they are disappointed.

He played in 2 games last year with zero catches and was seriously injured (again). The patriots used a 3rd to take a flyer on this player who started on the PUP list. He had the potential to be a deep threat and to be the kick returner we needed.

I am not at all disappointed with Tate. He is progressing fine for his 8th game in the league, coming back from injuries two years in a row. He is a fine kick returner. He does NOT have the talent of Dez Bryant. Why is that a disappointment or a surprise.

The disappointment is with the FO, if they expected Tate to be Dez Bryant.
=============

 

[mgteich]

Offseason posts hoped that Edelaman would be a major force this year. If his 0,0,0,0 are because of his injury (what is it four now?), then we are still disappointed with the production. If he's still injured, we have a reason for the lack of production.

Edelman is an OK punt returner and a backup for Welker. That's all I ever expected of him, so I am not disappointed.

I suspect Edelman's hurt. He looked *great* in the first preseason game, then got hurt. Granted he hasn't gotten opportunities, but he looks sluggish when he's been out there. His quickness and elusiveness are gone. The sample size is small, but he has a -81% DVOA this year, which is incredibly bad:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2010

His DYAR at -29 is ridiculous as well: he's been targeted 12 times and produced 29 yards less than a replacement level WR would be expected to.

A little off topic, but you like stats, so while I've got FO open, here's some more interesting stuff:

Interestingly, FO still has Brady with the 2nd best DVOA of any quarterback:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2010

Very interesting, because all of our WR's are terrible: Branch is 36th in DVOA, Welker 54th, and Tate 70th (Moss is 33rd, but that includes his MN time, and Branch includes his SEA stint).

Our passing game is still 2nd in DVOA (although it's trending down and this is the first week this season we haven't been 1st):

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Note also that our much derided running game is still 3rd in DVOA.

So with our WR's so bad, it must be the TE's and RB's that are producing. Indeed we find that Hernandez is 8th in the league in DVOA and Gronkowski still 10th after Sunday's stinker:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | TIGHT ENDS 2010

That's pretty impressive, having two TE's in the leagues's top 10 on the same team (Crumpler has less than 6 receptions so isn't rated).

The really impressive player in the receiving game is Danny Woodhead. He's 1st in the league in RB receiving DVOA at 61.4%. To put that in perspective, it's a better per-play efficiency than *any* skill position player except Antonio Gates (at 74%):

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

I can only imagine how bad our offense would be if we hadn't lucked into Woodhead -- he'd also be 1st in *rushing* DVOA if he had enough qualifying carries. (BJGE is 3rd in rushing DVOA -- when he gets past the LOS we win. Note that Faulk didn't play much before he went out, but would rank 12th in the league in RB receiving DVOA if he qualified).

So our eyes haven't been deceiving us: Brady to Hernandez and Woodhead has been carrying this team's passing offense, enough so that Tom Brady is the 2nd most effective QB in the league on a per play basis. Our WR crew is worse than mediocre.

And here I was one of those thinking Brady was the problem

It's the WR position that's the biggest disappointment.

 

[WelshPat]

Another thing about people being let down by Tate, Hakeem Nicks is already looking like a great WR and a lot of people read the scouting reports, me included, that Tate was a better prospect than Nicks. But Tate was never the polished WR that Nicks was, and he's been hurt bad twice.

 

[mgteich]

One conclusion is that folks had high expectations for lots of players and were disappointed.
We expect most of our players to do well. How else could the vast majority always predict a playoff season every year?

I love that this thread is 7 pages, and the surprise thread is 8 posts

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

I'll go with Darius Butler by a wide margin so far, hopefully he turns it around soon. He looked like a player with talent last year, looked horrible this year when he's played.

I would have to go with Butler, as well.

I just had such high hopes of a Butler/McCourty d-backfield for years to come. It may still happen, but the writing on the wall now looks more like Butler won't even be here next year!

Is he injured? Is he just in the doghouse? WTF?

 

[Deus Irae]

you can have numbers like this and still be relatively ineffective which is something he has sort of been this year. granted, the actual plays that killed the pats vs the browns weren't on him, but he did not look good out there

I'm bringing facts and data, and you're bringing "Nu'uh!". He hasn't been ineffective at all, and claiming he has is just ridiculous. For crying out loud, the team's #2 in scoring in the NFL, at over 27 points per game, despite the Moss/Maroney trades, the offense's system change, the injuries and inexperience among the receiving corps, and the inconsistent and wildly overrated running game.

I don't blame brady tho.....I blame the front office for going through training camp with a primary RB and a primary WR that he simply trades away during the middle of the season (maroney and moss). not that these guys hsould have been kept, but you can't expect the offense to run smoothly while making middle of the season changes like that. I put the situation on the front office.

I agree with this, but those front office mistakes haven't made Brady ineffective. They've limited the offense. There's a difference between those two things.

 

[Synovia]

Jack - you are being a bit disingenuous here. Unfortunately, you have found 4 players who has career trajectory that fit the profile needed to meet your case...

I went through about 10 more receivers (Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, etc),

And the norm for studs seems to be 650-800 yards their rookie year. The only guy who is higher than that is Randy Moss.

 

[LiveShot]

Brandon Tate as a wide receiver closely followed by Darius Butler.

 

[emoney_33]

For the people that are saying Brady what do you think the Patriots record would be without him?

I would say either 3-5 or 4-4. Brady has played well this season and has kept the Patriots in every game that they have played. People need to stop getting all over Brady

6-2 (10 char)