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idle thoughts.....pre-Cleveland

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patfanken

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In no particular order or thematic progression......

1. The Pats are the worst 6-1 team in the league.

That being said, we surely can't be considered a superbowl favorite, nor should we be considered the best team in the league either. After 7 games WHO CARES who's the best team or not. Its LESS than meaningless. I'm ashamed I spent this much time talking about it.

2. Next to Buffalo, Cleveland looks to be the easiest win left on our schedule....and the Browns can beat us, if we don't play a competent game. The only bright side is that our usual narrow margin of error is slightly larger for this game.

3. Here are my 3 main concerns.

a. Its an away game and EVERY away game is a challenge, and the Cleveland crowd is a knowledgeable and rabid fan base, who don't particularly care for our coach....and team. It will be loud there, and it could hamper an offense that was inconsistent in the friendly confines of the Razor.

b. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and regardless of what you think of Mangini, given the time, he and Rob Ryan are capable of putting together a very good game plan.

The defense should be difficult and hard to read, It was a defense that clearly confused another very good experienced QB in Drew Brees to the tune of 4 picks....at home. How tough will it be, at home, with 2 weeks to prepare????

While on offense,. I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy dose of a Josh Cribbs based Wildcat to protect McCoy and limit his reps. A former QB, Cribbs is much more capable of presenting a true multiple threat from the Wildcat. Given they've had an extra week to prepare, it could be a much bigger problem than what Miami has to offer.

c. Branch and Taylor are both likely to be out this game. In fact I would prefer if neither played, and are both healthy when we hit the Colts, Steelers, and Jets part of the schedule. That leaves the bulk of the WR chores left to Tate, Welker and Edelman, two of whom are unlikely to be anyone's starters on their FF team,

Maybe this will be the week we see the Gronk break out down field. A few throws to Alge. Or....dare I say it.....A Taylor Price sighting.

3. The biggest Danny Woodhead play last week was the big first down he created on the last drive. However my FAVORITE Danny Woodhead play was when he stepped up to meet a blitzing Viking LB and STONED him....for about 2 seconds It wasn't a block that will make the HOF, but it was sufficient and showed his willingness.....and it will get better, just like we saw as Kevin Faulk matured.

People forget that early in Faulk's career he had 2 weaknesses. One he fumbled too much, and 2, he didn't block well. However over the last half of his career Faulk not only improved in those areas, he excelled at them.

And if anyone still questioned Woodhead's "athleticism", his seamless, one handed catch of the direct snap on his TD run, should end it.....DEFINITIVELY

4. Jet fans keep rationalizing that Woodhead, had he stayed with the Jets, wasn't going to take any snaps away from Greene and LT. Maybe so. But the fact is they kept a 4th round pick, who has only been active ONE Sunday this season and let Woodhead slip to the Pats, where he found himself in a perfect offense to display his skills AND the opportunity to get on the field. We were a godsend to him and his career, as he was a godsend to us after Faulk went down. THANK YOU J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets

5. I was very vocal in wanting no part of Logan Mankins coming back to the team. I doubted his ability to get into shape after missing all the off season conditioning, OTA's and Traning Camp, as well as his mental commitment to the team, given all the "supposed" bad blood between him and the team. I wanted him traded, and I didn't really care what we got.

Now I'm cautiously optimistic that his return might be a positive for the team, for a couple of reasons. First he seemed to pass his physical with ease. Second was a comment he made about his teammate, Dan Connolly. When he was asked about the relative success of the Pats OL without him, he responded with what amounted to a glowing tribute of Connolly's play, saying it was no surprise to him, that he played so well.

That surprised me. Not that I ever thought he would trash him, but I didn't expect him to go out of his way to acknowledge his contribution. That was a comment that gave me some confidence that, while he is here with the team, Mankins will give us his best.

That being said, it would be unrealistic to think that Logan will make any impact on the OL for a couple of weeks....at least. Still its good to know that he COULD be an upgrade as we go into December, and at worst our OL depth has greatly improved
 
6. I don't want to sound jealous or petty, but DAMNED I want to know what they are drinking down in NJ. For the last 3 years, I have been impressed by the LACK of serious injuries that the Jets have managed. It seems like for the last 3 years at least, they have very few, relative to the rest of the league. Their starting OL hasn't missed a game in THREE years. Their RBs and WRs have rarely missed any extended time, and the same goes to their defense.

Granted they lost Jenkins for the year, but I'm talking about the multiple injuries...for long periods of time....and quite frankly....they have none. For this game, they have a grand total of NO ONE on the injury list. I HATE IT. Compare it to the Colts....to the Packer....and to US....and this has been a good year for us, But STILL we lost our best DE, our best CB (for now at least), our starting RB(to trade) our next RB (to injury 6 of 8 games...so far), and our 3rd down back....and like I said, we are having a relatively "good" year for injuries (knock on wood)....for us....so far.

You would think that things like this would even out over time, but clearly they haven't. So I have to think they are doing something down there....and doing it well. I'd like to know what it is and copy it.

7. Lomardi had a great column on the transition of the Pats offense post Moss, and there was a great thread on it here. My only complaint was that he stopped short and failed to talk much about the defense and special teams. I think THOSE are the 2 more important stories of the our season thus far.

8. Special teams have made the biggest improvement from last season. Not just because Tate has run a couple of KOs back for TD's. Mesko's misses are better punts than what we got last season. When was the last time a punter had a significant impact on the game, like he did vs the Ravens. And I can only think of one time when he's had a touchback. I know there are probably more, but last season the situation was reversed. It wasn't the touchbacks that were the rarity, it was the times we pinned the offense. The scary thing is that Mesko is still a work in progress. He is one of the better punter in the league....and he has upside . He also is a good holder.

But that's only part of special teams story. With that single exception vs Buffalo, our kick off and punt coverage teams have also been very good. Plus after a shaky start (it must have been all that money in his pockets) Gotkowski has been money...as usual.

The blocked kicks, TD run backs, etc are easy to quantify. Its harder to notice the consistent work of the coverage teams and return teams when the results are less than spectacular. Still the game in game out work of the special teams has been key, especially when you are working with a team with such a slim margin for error.

9. The other key factor in our first half success has been our turn over ratio. I'm sure there are teams who have created more TO's than the Pats. However I doubt there are many who have given up as few, especially in the last 5 games. (feel free to look it up, I know I'd love to see the TO stats )

IIRC, The Pats have turned the ball over only 3 times in the last 5 games, and one of those was the hail Mary Brady threw on the last play of the half of the Ravens game. The RBs have had ZERO fumbles during this streak.

Again think about how another offensive TO or two would have impacted the last 5 games. Not well, I can tell you.

So while the offense has struggled over the last several weeks, its still managed to put up over 22 points per game, and VERY RARELY squander scoring opportunities with TOs or give up points or poor field position to the defense.

So while the defense is mired at the bottom of the league in stats, and the offense is mired in mediocrity in those same stats, I have to believe that our plus/minus ratio has to be among the league leaders. Let me know.

10. I wish I was a better person, because if I was, I wouldn't keep mentioning that I TOLD YOU SO about Devin McCourty. Right from the start I told you that he would be starting on the outside. Right from the start, I said that one day he would be mentioned in the same breath as Ty Law and Mike Haynes. And NOTHING to date makes me, or anyone else for that matter, think that it COULD happen. He gets better every game.

I'd like to think that when the season is over, his production and performance will be very comparable to Revis' rookie year. Of course it hasn't been perfect, but clearly this kid is already good at press coverage. He can stay with anyone, yet still has the knack of turning his head before the ball gets there. He is improving his zone coverage, and is one of the better tackling CB I've seen. (eat your heart out Deon Sanders.....and ACromartie,)

He's the best, and most impactful first round pick we've had since Logan Mankins

OK its on to Cleveland, a game we SHOULD win (and cover)... IF we remember the "little things" that got us to this point. Excellent special teams play. No turn overs. Create a couple of TO's on the other team. Control the run (I don't think we are ready yet to STOP it). Allow FGs, not TDs in the red zone. Tackle well (especially after catches). And move the ball at least as well as we have in the last few games (and hopefully a little better)

This is what we've been doing successfully the last few games, and this is what we SHOULD be able to do on Sunday. Nothing overwhelming, but solid winning football.
 
In regards to #3b (the first #3, not the second #3), in addition to Mangini, don't forget he has Rob Ryan too. I know we love to rag on Rex, and from there the whole family - but the Ryan in Cleveland is a good coach and DC. I'm sure he'll come up with a quality game plan against the Pats.

As for Woodhead, I can see both sides. It's tough for a team to give up on a high draft pick that quickly who has successfully competed at a much higher level than an undrafted free agent who played at a lower level; you're comparing two or three years versus three or four weeks when it comes time to make cuts.

I like to rag on the Jets since they are our rival, but I can understand the roster decision. Not exactly the same since he wasn't that great in pre-season, but look at Ted Larsen - a guy I presume the Pats wanted for their PS - is now starting on the 5-2 Bucs who attribute their turnaround in large part to the improved play of their offensive line.

Bottom line is their loss, our gain with Woodhead. If that's not a win-win situation, I don't know what is.
 
patfanken said:
3. The biggest Danny Woodhead play last week was the big first down he created on the last drive. However my FAVORITE Danny Woodhead play was when he stepped up to meet a blitzing Viking LB and STONED him....for about 2 seconds It wasn't a block that will make the HOF, but it was sufficient and showed his willingness.....and it will get better, just like we saw as Kevin Faulk matured.

Yes and yes to both of those thoughts. :rocker:
 
---------

2. Next to Buffalo, Cleveland looks to be the easiest win left on our schedule....and the Browns can beat us, if we don't play a competent game. The only bright side is that our usual narrow margin of error is slightly larger for this game.

------------
3. Here are my 3 main concerns.

a. Its an away game ... It will be loud there, and it could hamper an offense that was inconsistent in the friendly confines of the Razor.

b. The Browns are coming off a bye week,
The defense should be difficult and hard to read, It was a defense that clearly confused another very good experienced QB in Drew Brees to the tune of 4 picks....at home. How tough will it be, at home, with 2 weeks to prepare????

Given they've had an extra week to prepare, it could be a much bigger problem than what Miami has to offer.

c. Branch and Taylor are both likely to be out this game.

Maybe this will be the week we see the Gronk break out down field. A few throws to Alge. Or....dare I say it.....A Taylor Price sighting.

Thanks patfanken, nice summary as usual.

I am particularly concerned about this game because of the Saints defeat at home and the extra week that our former DC has (who btw, should be well versed with our old O style) to prepare against us.

Based on the three excellent subpoints under point 3, I find it hard to take point 2 at face.

Can you throw more light on how exactly our margin of error is slightly large against the Browns?

Thanks!
 
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Something everyone constantly ignores regarding the Browns: Drew Brees threw 4 interceptions. You do that and you lose, no matter who you are facing. If he didn't do that then no way do the Saints lose.
 
Good stuff, Ken. In particular,

While on offense,. I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy dose of a Josh Cribbs based Wildcat to protect McCoy and limit his reps. A former QB, Cribbs is much more capable of presenting a true multiple threat from the Wildcat. Given they've had an extra week to prepare, it could be a much bigger problem than what Miami has to offer.

Interesting, I didn't realize he was a QB. The Browns problem on offense is that they have two real playmakers and have a hard time getting one of them the ball. It's easy to hand-off to Hillis, but Cribbs needs the ball in his hands more. The Pats have beaten the wildcat by selling out on the run. Mangini knows this and understands the soft spots in that particular scheme better than anyone. If Cribbs can deliver the ball to Watson and keep the defense honest, then the wildcat will be able to take advantage of it's fundamental assets - an extra blocker and misdirection.


3. The biggest Danny Woodhead play last week was the big first down he created on the last drive. However my FAVORITE Danny Woodhead play was when he stepped up to meet a blitzing Viking LB and STONED him....for about 2 seconds It wasn't a block that will make the HOF, but it was sufficient and showed his willingness.....and it will get better, just like we saw as Kevin Faulk matured.

...

And if anyone still questioned Woodhead's "athleticism", his seamless, one handed catch of the direct snap on his TD run, should end it.....DEFINITIVELY4.

Did anybody really question this? His athleticism is obvious and a step above, even on an NFL field littered with athletic freaks. His ability to pick up the blitz, however, was my biggest concern and that block of a much larger player was if not my favorite play, the best sign of the game from him. I'll get ahead of myself and call him an upgrade.


5. I was very vocal in wanting no part of Logan Mankins coming back to the team.

...

That being said, it would be unrealistic to think that Logan will make any impact on the OL for a couple of weeks....at least.

I'm very optimistic, both about this year and the chances for a long-term deal. He's coming back exactly the right way, early and quiet. I expect he'll be inactive this week, active the next and getting some time, and starting by Thanksgiving. He'll make a big difference in how well we run the ball, but I definitely want him to get more practice before facing any blitzes or stunts on passing downs.


9. The other key factor in our first half success has been our turn over ratio. I'm sure there are teams who have created more TO's than the Pats. However I doubt there are many who have given up as few, especially in the last 5 games. (feel free to look it up, I know I'd love to see the TO stats )

IIRC, The Pats have turned the ball over only 3 times in the last 5 games, and one of those was the hail Mary Brady threw on the last play of the half of the Ravens game. The RBs have had ZERO fumbles during this streak.

Again think about how another offensive TO or two would have impacted the last 5 games. Not well, I can tell you.

So while the offense has struggled over the last several weeks, its still managed to put up over 22 points per game, and VERY RARELY squander scoring opportunities with TOs or give up points or poor field position to the defense.

So while the defense is mired at the bottom of the league in stats, and the offense is mired in mediocrity in those same stats, I have to believe that our plus/minus ratio has to be among the league leaders. Let me know.

Indeed. Pat's are 4th in turnover differential and second (to KC) in least number of turnovers.


10. I wish I was a better person, because if I was, I wouldn't keep mentioning that I TOLD YOU SO about Devin McCourty. Right from the start I told you that he would be starting on the outside. Right from the start, I said that one day he would be mentioned in the same breath as Ty Law and Mike Haynes. And NOTHING to date makes me, or anyone else for that matter, think that it COULD happen. He gets better every game.

Well, good call then. I liked the pick in a in-bill-we-trus kind of way and have been pretty optimistic, since somebody linked this shortly after draft day, but I'm beginning to agree about his ability to realize his tremendous upside.
 
Nice post Ken....

A few thoughts....

I really think that this is going to be a tougher game than it would appear in stats. Not only has Cleveland had 2 weeks to prepare for us, but Mangini still knows our tendencies very well and has undoubtedly prepared his team for what to expext.

In view of how difficult our schedule is going to be, this really is a MUST WIN game. I expect us to win, but a 17-14 game is very possible with the fresh legs of the Browns a factor for the Browns deep into the 4th quarter. And with this Patriot team playing like some of our previous teams...we'll win a lot of close games....not many blowouts like we had in 2007.

God bless Danny Woodhead. He is quickly becoming a factor for other teams to consider when playing us. There is something to really appreciate in a kid from a small program who is hungry and greatful for an opportunity to make it in the NFL and is capatalizing on the chance to make it.

I was in the same boat as most of us regarding Logan Mankins. I was not expecting him to come back. But now that he has, it really is like getting an all-star at the trading deadline in baseball. Sounds like everyone on the Patriots who knew him was in his corner and now that he is back, there are no hard feelings carrying over.

My one thought is if Randy Moss called him and told him how much he regrets leaving the Patriots. That the grass is really not "greener" on the other side of the fence. That you'll never care how much more money you make playing for someone else when you are not playing for a championship every year and the organization is a mess.....

As for Mcourty......Wow.

We are witnessing an annual pro-bowler in the making. Every game you can see the kid making adjustments...getting into the right position to take away something from the recievers....and his physical contribution? Hands down, the best corner taken in the draft. Ty Law is an appropriate comparison.

How we are 6-1 is a bit lucky, but all those former Patriot teams that this team seems so easy to compare to were a lot like that too. How many times did we pick up the paper monday mornings only to read how the other teams complained that they were "The better team". Somehow, and this part is not luck related...we force teams into taking chances that they might not have in any other game...That our guys are doing something that frustrates the opposing teams and I can't quite put my finger on it except to say that the Patriots put as much stock into inteligence as ability....and nothing can be more frustrating than getting beat by mental preparation...
 
8. Special teams have made the biggest improvement from last season. Not just because Tate has run a couple of KOs back for TD's. Mesko's misses are better punts than what we got last season. When was the last time a punter had a significant impact on the game, like he did vs the Ravens. And I can only think of one time when he's had a touchback. I know there are probably more, but last season the situation was reversed. It wasn't the touchbacks that were the rarity, it was the times we pinned the offense. The scary thing is that Mesko is still a work in progress. He is one of the better punter in the league....and he has upside . He also is a good holder.

I agree that special teams has been a huge part of NE's improvement this year. After the Miami game they were #1 in the entire league at starting field position after being dead last in 2009, an impressive shift.

That said, they've been outplayed on ST the past two games and both KO units were actually quite bad against Minnesota.

As for Cleveland's performance against NO, I don't read that the same way most others do. Despite two int return TDs and a 70 yard run on a fake punt, Cleveland only put 16 offensive points up and barely moved the ball at all. As long as NE has 1 or less turnovers, it will be very difficult for the Browns to win this game, though I do expect it to be a one score game into the 4th quarter.
 
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Great thoughts. I am in the same boat as you are with Mankins. I have been a fairly harsh critic, and still think he handled the whole thing rather foolishly, but I am definitely intrigued to see how he will fit in. If he's the best guy to play the position, then he should definitely get in there and play. Hearing his answers and what his teammates are saying about him makes me feel a lot better, as if that matters...well, it matters to me.

As for the Browns game, I think the score will be close in the end, but I don't see how the game will actually feel that close. I have this funny feeling that the Browns are going to lay an egg on this one, but Cribbs on ST will be enough to give the Browns short enough fields to put 20 on the board. I know the Browns had an impressive win in New Orleans, but I really do believe that performance was an aberration, not something to be expected week-in and week-out.

idle thoughts.....pre-Cleveland

"Pre-Cleveland" was a very sparsely populated forest in the gentle rolling hills by the lakeside. Then Cleveland happened.
 
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Cleveland is a lot better than people think. They've had an incredibly tough schedule so far, with losses to the Bucs, Chiefs, Ravens, Falcons, and Steelers. All 5 losses are to teams that are 5-2 and either lead, or are tied for the division lead. They're coming off a bye week and a big win against New Orleans. Life gets tougher too as they play us this week and the Jets next week.

Mesko has been great. He's also picked up a few bad snaps and gotten punts away, which are basically saving turnovers.

I'm a homer but 6-1 is way beyond anything I expected, and we're not the best team in the NFL right now. But you can see us improving each week, and the goal isn't to be the best halfway through the season, but the best at the end of the year. I think we have a chance at that if our young guys keep improving.

McCourty has been awesome. But he's the one rookie I worry about when it comes to the rookie wall. Cunningham didn't start until week 3 and gets off the field sometimes. Spikes and Deaderick are often starters who get subbed out in various situations. But McCourty has played every single snap on defense minus one where he was shaken up, and even then he came back in after missing only one snap. He also plays on special teams. He could be exhausted by the time week 14 comes around.

Hopefully Butler improves to the point that BB can rest McCourty for even a few series. I also wonder if Butler would do better as an LCB and how much of his struggles have been adjusting to the other side.
 
Something everyone constantly ignores regarding the Browns: Drew Brees threw 4 interceptions. You do that and you lose, no matter who you are facing. If he didn't do that then no way do the Saints lose.

Luckily our QB is one of the absolute best ever at NOT throwing INTs!
 
I see Cleveland as Wheatley's breakout game
 
In no particular order or thematic progression......

1. The Pats are the worst 6-1 team in the league.

That being said, we surely can't be considered a superbowl favorite, nor should we be considered the best team in the league either. After 7 games WHO CARES who's the best team or not. Its LESS than meaningless. I'm ashamed I spent this much time talking about it.

They're also the ONLY 6-1 team in the league. If the Pats are that bad, how much worse must the rest of the league be in your eyes. Yeah. Nobody can EVER be happy about this team, even when it's succeeding. Didn't think you'd be one of those fans though.

2. Next to Buffalo, Cleveland looks to be the easiest win left on our schedule....and the Browns can beat us, if we don't play a competent game. The only bright side is that our usual narrow margin of error is slightly larger for this game.

1. You really think BB won't have his troops prepared to smear the wall with Mangini's team? I think you underestimate his hatred for the traitor.
2. We always beat the Bills, the only question is whether it's going to be a drubbing or a close game. I think as this team gels later on the season, it will turn out to be more of a drubbing.

3. Here are my 3 main concerns.

a. Its an away game and EVERY away game is a challenge, and the Cleveland crowd is a knowledgeable and rabid fan base, who don't particularly care for our coach....and team. It will be loud there, and it could hamper an offense that was inconsistent in the friendly confines of the Razor.

Any away game is a tougher game. But this isn't 2009. This 2010 edition Pats team has shown it can perform on the road. I expect that to continue. The Browns fanbase can be as rabid as they want, how many playoff appearances has that gotten them?

b. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and regardless of what you think of Mangini, given the time, he and Rob Ryan are capable of putting together a very good game plan.

You really hype up Mangini and his staff but you forget that the converse also holds true for BB. Give him extra time to gameplan and he will cook up something of truly wicked evil genius.

c. Branch and Taylor are both likely to be out this game. In fact I would prefer if neither played, and are both healthy when we hit the Colts, Steelers, and Jets part of the schedule. That leaves the bulk of the WR chores left to Tate, Welker and Edelman, two of whom are unlikely to be anyone's starters on their FF team,

Maybe this will be the week we see the Gronk break out down field. A few throws to Alge. Or....dare I say it.....A Taylor Price sighting.

If Branch is out, it's a distinct possibility that Price could see some snaps. Taylor has never been much of a factor for us this year so I don't think that changes the Pats offense at all. BJGE and Woodward have been stepping up big time. One of the ESPN commentators said the Pats can't run the football, I completely disagree.

3. And if anyone still questioned Woodhead's "athleticism", his seamless, one handed catch of the direct snap on his TD run, should end it.....DEFINITIVELY

Anybody who questions Woodward's athleticism should have their head checked. He looks quicker and faster than Faulk, and he has some wiggle to make defenders miss. His lack of height works in his favor, making it harder for defenders to spot him quickly after the snap.

4. Jet fans keep rationalizing that Woodhead, had he stayed with the Jets, wasn't going to take any snaps away from Greene and LT. Maybe so. But the fact is they kept a 4th round pick, who has only been active ONE Sunday this season and let Woodhead slip to the Pats, where he found himself in a perfect offense to display his skills AND the opportunity to get on the field. We were a godsend to him and his career, as he was a godsend to us after Faulk went down. THANK YOU J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets

We also stole Welker from the Dolphins for a 2nd round pick. And they already KNEW he was good. Woodward for free was like an early Christmas present. I don't think the Jets needed Woodward because of their depth, but he turned out to be the perfect fit for New England after Faulk went down.

That being said, it would be unrealistic to think that Logan will make any impact on the OL for a couple of weeks....at least. Still its good to know that he COULD be an upgrade as we go into December, and at worst our OL depth has greatly improved

Mankins is physically the most talented OG on the roster. But he hasn't always shown off that talent, particularly in pass blocking. I think he's just here to run out his time so he can become a free agent and get his big pay day. But that also means that we should get the best out of him for the remainder of the season. I don't like him for holding out, but he can help this football team. And the sooner he does so, the better.

I see Cleveland as Wheatley's breakout game

That's hard to do from the unemployment line.
 
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In addition to turnover ratio, it seems our defense has been doing much better in the red zone, especially of late. Against the Vikings we would have given up 0 TD's in 5 red zone trips if not for a couple iffy penalties. Now if we can improve the 3rd and long defense, look out
 
They're also the ONLY 6-1 team in the league. If the Pats are that bad, how much worse must the rest of the league be in your eyes. Yeah. Nobody can EVER be happy about this team, even when it's succeeding. Didn't think you'd be one of those fans though.

Pretty sure Ken was joking with that comment
 
"Pre-Cleveland" was a very sparsely populated forest in the gentle rolling hills by the lakeside. Then Cleveland happened.

I thought he was talking about the history of the Boston Red Sox up until 1973.
 
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