PatsFaninAZ
In the Starting Line-Up
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Two minutes left on defense. Do you want to be up 3 or 4? I think the stats plainly have to favor being up by 4, but man is it more uncomfortable. When you're up 3, the other team has two concerns -- getting the game tied and not leaving you with much time. They'll take a td of course, but it's not the top priority. When they are up 4, they have 4 downs on every series to get 10 yards, often against a gassed defense. They also conserve time instead of letting the clock wind down, so they have more options.
Yesterday, once the Chargers got to the 35, they let the clock wind down in case they didn't get the first down so the Patriots wouldn't have time left. They also, of course, decided to kick on 4th and 2 from the 25 when they would have gone for it if they were down 4. The way they were going, converting a 4th and 2 was at least a 50/50 proposition.
Anyway, like I said I'm sure the stats don't back it up, but unless you have a lock down defense, being down 4 late with the other team having the ball stinks. I think the Giants and Colts have both beaten us in big games in this situation. It's not exactly the same principle, but it kind of reminds me of the situation against the Giants in the super bowl. If we hadn't converted on the 3d down on the Moss TD, we probably would have kicked an FG and tied. The Giants would have had to punt on 4th down instead of going for it and it would have been the Patriots with the chance for a game winning drive.
It just seems like most times when you're down 3 late, the other team plays for a FG unless the get a big play that puts them in a goal to go situation. Whereas when you're down 4 the other team plays for the win.
Yesterday, once the Chargers got to the 35, they let the clock wind down in case they didn't get the first down so the Patriots wouldn't have time left. They also, of course, decided to kick on 4th and 2 from the 25 when they would have gone for it if they were down 4. The way they were going, converting a 4th and 2 was at least a 50/50 proposition.
Anyway, like I said I'm sure the stats don't back it up, but unless you have a lock down defense, being down 4 late with the other team having the ball stinks. I think the Giants and Colts have both beaten us in big games in this situation. It's not exactly the same principle, but it kind of reminds me of the situation against the Giants in the super bowl. If we hadn't converted on the 3d down on the Moss TD, we probably would have kicked an FG and tied. The Giants would have had to punt on 4th down instead of going for it and it would have been the Patriots with the chance for a game winning drive.
It just seems like most times when you're down 3 late, the other team plays for a FG unless the get a big play that puts them in a goal to go situation. Whereas when you're down 4 the other team plays for the win.