Why all the worry about the offense?

[iapatsfan]

We have

Brady

Moss

The prospect of Welker coming back late in the season

A little bit more in the way of receiving talent (Faulk and Edelman mainly, right now)

An offensive line that can reasonably be expected to keep Brady upright, especially as Brady gets further away from his injury.

A mediocre (not catastrophic) running game (blockers and rushers alike)

That's not a bad place to start from

As the Patriots are currently made up, the offense IS going to struggle. We have 1 good/healthy WR who is aging and showed obvious signs of slowing last year. Edelman showed flashes of ability, but he is still a project and not even close to the level of Welker. He is a guy I would not mind having as a 4 or 5 WR, but not at #2. I do not think we have even close to a mediocre running game. Sure, statistically we are in the middle of the pack, but that is mainly because teams don't even worry about the Pats running the ball. We have nobody who can run the ball on a regular basis, and it gets very old watching guys like Koppen get pushed into the backfield every time we try. When the first recieving option you listed after Moss is a 3rd down RB (Faulk), we are obviously in trouble. How difficult is it to defend this team right now. Double Moss, and bring the house to pressure Brady. Who's he going to go to? Edelman?? Faulk?? Aiken?? Tate?? Crumpler?? I think teams are licking their chops when they see this recieving core. They are free to blitz at will with no fear of being seriously burned.

 

[Ring 6]

Are you guys seriously saying that getting more than 37 receptions out of a #3 WR is more important to the success of the 2010 Patriots than improving the defense?

 

[The Dynasty]

Are you guys seriously saying that getting more than 37 receptions out of a #3 WR is more important to the success of the 2010 Patriots than improving the defense?

Yes, I do. The defense really was not that bad last year. Are there still a few holes on it, yes there are, but the defense as it is now has a chance to be one of the top 10 defenses in the league. The defense was very young last year and can only get better with a year together under their belt. I also expect a better year out of Burgess if the Pats can resign him.

Offensively, we really need a #3 WR to complement Moss and Welker and right now just be a complement to Moss. The WR position is probably the biggest need on the team as of now, then a OLB/DE pass rusher is second.

 

[Ring 6]

As the Patriots are currently made up, the offense IS going to struggle. We have 1 good/healthy WR who is aging and showed obvious signs of slowing last year. Edelman showed flashes of ability, but he is still a project and not even close to the level of Welker. He is a guy I would not mind having as a 4 or 5 WR, but not at #2. I do not think we have even close to a mediocre running game. Sure, statistically we are in the middle of the pack, but that is mainly because teams don't even worry about the Pats running the ball. We have nobody who can run the ball on a regular basis, and it gets very old watching guys like Koppen get pushed into the backfield every time we try. When the first recieving option you listed after Moss is a 3rd down RB (Faulk), we are obviously in trouble. How difficult is it to defend this team right now. Double Moss, and bring the house to pressure Brady. Who's he going to go to? Edelman?? Faulk?? Aiken?? Tate?? Crumpler?? I think teams are licking their chops when they see this recieving core. They are free to blitz at will with no fear of being seriously burned.

This is where it just starts making no sense to me.
What happens when you double Moss and blitz the house? Brady throws to the hot reciever. All that WR has to do is be able to run a route, and catch the ball. 99% of the WRs in the NFL will do that job almost exactly the same.
This idea that teams just don't cover receivers they arent 'afraid of' is ridiculous. Defenses don't 'lick their chops' looking at receviers, and certainly not a receiver corps that includes Randy Moss.
This isnt the backyard and we don't have your 3 year old brother on the team so that you can just not cover him because he cant catch.
Lord.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, I do. The defense really was not that bad last year. Are there still a few holes on it, yes there are, but the defense as it is now has a chance to be one of the top 10 defenses in the league. The defense was very young last year and can only get better with a year together under their belt. I also expect a better year out of Burgess if the Pats can resign him.

Offensively, we really need a #3 WR to complement Moss and Welker and right now just be a complement to Moss. The WR position is probably the biggest need on the team as of now, then a OLB/DE pass rusher is second.

We already are a top 10 offense. Top 5 actually.
You are expecting improvement out of young defensive players, but nothing out of Edelman, Tate or Welker?

 

[Rob0729]

As the Patriots are currently made up, the offense IS going to struggle. We have 1 good/healthy WR who is aging and showed obvious signs of slowing last year. Edelman showed flashes of ability, but he is still a project and not even close to the level of Welker. He is a guy I would not mind having as a 4 or 5 WR, but not at #2. I do not think we have even close to a mediocre running game. Sure, statistically we are in the middle of the pack, but that is mainly because teams don't even worry about the Pats running the ball. We have nobody who can run the ball on a regular basis, and it gets very old watching guys like Koppen get pushed into the backfield every time we try. When the first recieving option you listed after Moss is a 3rd down RB (Faulk), we are obviously in trouble. How difficult is it to defend this team right now. Double Moss, and bring the house to pressure Brady. Who's he going to go to? Edelman?? Faulk?? Aiken?? Tate?? Crumpler?? I think teams are licking their chops when they see this recieving core. They are free to blitz at will with no fear of being seriously burned.

If the Pats only are middle of the pack for the running game because no one cared about the Pats running the ball and were concerned about shutting down the passing attack, why did the Colts have the worst run offense in the league. Why did Houston have the #1 passing offense in the league and the 30th ranked run offense? Both those teams had better passing offenses than the Pats (the only two) and yet they were in the 30s and the Pats were 12th.

 

[Ring 6]

If the Pats only are middle of the pack for the running game because no one cared about the Pats running the ball and were concerned about shutting down the passing attack, why did the Colts have the worst run offense in the league. Why did Houston have the #1 passing offense in the league and the 30th ranked run offense? Both those teams had better passing offenses than the Pats (the only two) and yet they were in the 30s and the Pats were 12th.

Shhhhh. Everything good has to be a result of smoke and mirrors.
The defense was only ranked high because of the offense it really sucked.
The offense was only ranked high because of the defense, it really sucked.
We only ran well because no one cared if we did, yet we should have been better than 3rd in passing because we should be good enough to throw when they ignore the run.

 

[iapatsfan]

Are you guys seriously saying that getting more than 37 receptions out of a #3 WR is more important to the success of the 2010 Patriots than improving the defense?

I am "seriously" saying this team is going to have great difficulty moving the ball next season. Sure the defense could be improved, but at least there is young talent you can expect to develop on that side of the ball. Where is the talent on offense? Brady, Moss and that's about it. As this team is currently made up, it is way too easy to defend for an avg defense, let alone a good one. You bring up the 37 receptions for a #3 WR as if this is all we are looking at. I am looking at an offense that is going to get Brady killed. This is an honest question, what does this offense have that is going to prevent teams from double teaming Moss and blitzing Brady to death? Where is he going to go with the ball when he reads blitz? Going into this season we can probably expect some improvement with the young guys on D, and I think we can expect this offense to take a step back w/out Welker at his old self.

 

[Ring 6]

I am "seriously" saying this team is going to have great difficulty moving the ball next season. Sure the defense could be improved, but at least there is young talent you can expect to develop on that side of the ball. Where is the talent on offense? Brady, Moss and that's about it. As this team is currently made up, it is way too easy to defend for an avg defense, let alone a good one. You bring up the 37 receptions for a #3 WR as if this is all we are looking at. I am looking at an offense that is going to get Brady killed. This is an honest question, what does this offense have that is going to prevent teams from double teaming Moss and blitzing Brady to death? Where is he going to go with the ball when he reads blitz? Going into this season we can probably expect some improvement with the young guys on D, and I think we can expect this offense to take a step back w/out Welker at his old self.

I think you are out of your mind. Name 10 better offenses before you can tell me this one will suck.

To answer the question you asked, we have BRADY.
Dealing with the blitz is 95% QB and 5% receiver. The ball will go to the hot read. Are you seriously telling me that you dont think we can put receivers on the field who can run a professional route?

No doubt Welker is a great player, but lets not act like he turns zero receptions into 120. 80% of what he does is because he just carries out the play call. When he is out, Edelman gets those passes. Sure he adds some plays to that with his quickness and smarts, but you are acting like that is 65 plays a game, not the 2-3 that he really adds.
I'm not trying to diminish Welker, but if we chose to run the offense the same way, there will be someone lined up in Welkers spot, running Welkers route, and 90% of the time will get open like Welker did. Now that 10% is the difference between a star and a good productive player, but its not a big gap to fill.

 

[iapatsfan]

This is where it just starts making no sense to me.
What happens when you double Moss and blitz the house? Brady throws to the hot reciever. All that WR has to do is be able to run a route, and catch the ball. 99% of the WRs in the NFL will do that job almost exactly the same.
This idea that teams just don't cover receivers they arent 'afraid of' is ridiculous. Defenses don't 'lick their chops' looking at receviers, and certainly not a receiver corps that includes Randy Moss.
This isnt the backyard and we don't have your 3 year old brother on the team so that you can just not cover him because he cant catch.
Lord.

The hot reciever has to be able to beat press coverage. I have zero confidence in any of the Pats WRs/TE being able to do that on a consistent basis. I never said they will not be covered, I'm saying they will not be able to get open. Why do teams with good corners typically blitz a lot? Because those corners can prevent WRs from getting open quickly, which is what you need to do when facing a blitz. The problem we have is we do not have WRs that have shown the ability to beat NFL level corners using press coverage. Do you think teams are going to play off of Tate/Edelman/Aiken? No, they will play right in their face and bump them as soon as the ball is snapped. Have any of them shown the ability to beat this type of coverage? Honestly?? Tate was a great return man, but mediocre WR in college and he is coming off a 2nd knee injury. Edelman was a QB in college. Aiken is just flat out garbage and should not be anything more that a ST guy. Patten is old.

 

[iapatsfan]

If the Pats only are middle of the pack for the running game because no one cared about the Pats running the ball and were concerned about shutting down the passing attack, why did the Colts have the worst run offense in the league. Why did Houston have the #1 passing offense in the league and the 30th ranked run offense? Both those teams had better passing offenses than the Pats (the only two) and yet they were in the 30s and the Pats were 12th.

Pretty easy. The Colts didn't try to run the ball. They were 31st in attempts and 32nd in yards. They also have the weapons that allow them to not have to run the ball. We don't. Houston has no running back and no O Line, they were in the bottom third in attempts and they still only averaged 4 yds/game less than the Pats running the ball. If you are seriously putting faith in the Pats ability to consistently run ball you're kidding yourself. The Pats are seriously hurting for talent on the offensive side of the ball, and the talent they do have is aging rapidly. How can you honestly dispute this??

 

[Nonentity]

Aiken was 4th. Edelman had 37 receptions. That is more than the #3 WR on each of the SB Champ teams.

My logic was that #3 WR cant be the biggest weakness on the team when the #3 WR in 2009 caught more passes than the #3 WR on our 3 SB Champs, while the 1 and 2 ALSO caught more. IT would actually make sense that having better 1 and 2 would diminish the production of the 3, but actually #3 caught more also.

I didn't realise you meant Edelman. He only played when Welker was out, didn't see a great deal of action the rest of the time.


All this talk of #1, #2 and #3 WRs is a mirage. It doesn't make sense. There are three WR positions: flanker, split end and slot. Obviously you already know this, but for clarity:

Randy Moss is our flanker. He runs the deep routes - the fly, post and corner routes.
Wes Welker is best utilised in the slot. He catches lots of slants, short ins and short outs. Edelman is a slot guy, we haven't seen him
The split end needs to be able to beat press coverage, run intermediate routes and catch the ball going over the middle.

Who is our split end? I do not see one on this team right now. It could be Brandon Tate, but we haven't seen him properly yet. Training camp will tell us a lot, but unfortunately we don't have that luxury.


Because of Welker's productivity, we don't need an elite WR at split end. However, we need someone legitimate. Randy Moss is still a Top 5 receiver in the NFL. Welker is the best slot receiver in the NFL. But the different in the passing game from 2007 to 2009 was the lack of a Donte Stallworth, a legitimate threat on the opposite side of the field who can punish the other team.

We genuinely have the ability to have an offense as good as 2007's. I really do believe that. But that's not going to happen unless we reproduce every element, and we're missing a Stallworth.

 

[signbabybrady]

I am "seriously" saying this team is going to have great difficulty moving the ball next season. Sure the defense could be improved, but at least there is young talent you can expect to develop on that side of the ball. Where is the talent on offense? Brady, Moss and that's about it. As this team is currently made up, it is way too easy to defend for an avg defense, let alone a good one. You bring up the 37 receptions for a #3 WR as if this is all we are looking at. I am looking at an offense that is going to get Brady killed. This is an honest question, what does this offense have that is going to prevent teams from double teaming Moss and blitzing Brady to death? Where is he going to go with the ball when he reads blitz? Going into this season we can probably expect some improvement with the young guys on D, and I think we can expect this offense to take a step back w/out Welker at his old self.

There is young talent on Offense too. Edelman and Volmer would lead the charge of young talented offensive players but you also have Tate not to mention Mankins who is still young and Welker too (maybe middleaged by NFL standards). Ignore QB as Brady is the man and you are left with only RB that lacks some sort of youth (ignoring Maroney as I feel I have seen enough). Which is actually why I want Matthews in the first RD and all defense in the 2nd (one RDE and 2 OLBs) and some sort of WR later in the draft just to round out the depth at WR behind Moss, Welker, Edelman, and Tate.

 

[signbabybrady]

I didn't realise you meant Edelman. He only played when Welker was out, didn't see a great deal of action the rest of the time.


All this talk of #1, #2 and #3 WRs is a mirage. It doesn't make sense. There are three WR positions: flanker, split end and slot. Obviously you already know this, but for clarity:

Randy Moss is our flanker. He runs the deep routes - the fly, post and corner routes.
Wes Welker is best utilised in the slot. He catches lots of slants, short ins and short outs. Edelman is a slot guy, we haven't seen him
The split end needs to be able to beat press coverage, run intermediate routes and catch the ball going over the middle.

Who is our split end? I do not see one on this team right now. It could be Brandon Tate, but we haven't seen him properly yet. Training camp will tell us a lot, but unfortunately we don't have that luxury.


Because of Welker's productivity, we don't need an elite WR at split end. However, we need someone legitimate. Randy Moss is still a Top 5 receiver in the NFL. Welker is the best slot receiver in the NFL. But the different in the passing game from 2007 to 2009 was the lack of a Donte Stallworth, a legitimate threat on the opposite side of the field who can punish the other team.

We genuinely have the ability to have an offense as good as 2007's. I really do believe that. But that's not going to happen unless we reproduce every element, and we're missing a Stallworth.

And your comments again highlight how 3rd WR is not as important as you would like to think. You said "But the different in the passing game from 2007 to 2009 was the lack of a Donte Stallworth, a legitimate threat on the opposite side of the field who can punish the other team." But that season Stallworth's role was lessened as the season went on and as the team realized Gaffney understood the system better. So to highlight how important the 3rd WR is you pointed to a guy who while he was productive lost his job to someone else who was equally as productive.

Look the bottom line is that we have 4 guys with varying degrees of skill in Moss, Welker, Edelman, and Tate and I fully expect that 3 of them will be OK to go to start the season and with a little luck 4 of them could be up to speed and causing fear in defenses by season end. Then you also have guys like Aiken, Patten, any rookie we might draft to add to the depth and to secure any questions you may have with top 4. And IMO there are only a handful of teams that can say they are in better standing at the WR position and most of those teams have other issues too like the Colts who have a worse running game than us.

 

[supafly]

My logic was that #3 WR cant be the biggest weakness on the team when the #3 WR in 2009 caught more passes than the #3 WR on our 3 SB Champs, while the 1 and 2 ALSO caught more. IT would actually make sense that having better 1 and 2 would diminish the production of the 3, but actually #3 caught more also.

I certainly understand what you're getting at, and there is some sense to it. I think people who are disagreeing are stating that any comparison to our 3 SB winners is a bit of a reach. Our defense was the attacking point of the team, having given up 21 and 17 pts in 2 of the 3 SB's. Our defense isn't even remotely close to what it was back then, not only are we lacking a veteran presence, we are lacking leadership and to some degree--actual playmakers.

While I agree that the defense showed promise for a younger group, there are still areas of need that we can only hope will be improved. In the SB years our defense carried us, while the offense took what the other team gave us. Now it seems to be vice-versa. Until these areas are properly resolved, it is our offense that is our strongest point. I am not one who believes our WR core is in absolute peril, but a good downfield threat who can produce is vital IMO--even more now without Welker.

Again, I think you made some good points, and am respectfully disagreeing about the SB yrs comparisons, because too many things have changed namely the power of the defense, but including a more pass-happy league in itself too. I simply believe that the strong point of the team in the past was leaning towards the defensive side, whereas now it's leaning towards the offensive side. Our 'o' is our attacking point no doubt, at least right now, and that's not a pot-shot against the defense, just a fact.

We all saw what a good plethora of options at WR can do in 2007, and that was with a better defense, not to mention Wes Welker. Until our defense finishes it's overhaul (minor or major), we need to continue to score high and mask some weaknesses.

 

[Rob0729]

Pretty easy. The Colts didn't try to run the ball. They were 31st in attempts and 32nd in yards. They also have the weapons that allow them to not have to run the ball. We don't. Houston has no running back and no O Line, they were in the bottom third in attempts and they still only averaged 4 yds/game less than the Pats running the ball. If you are seriously putting faith in the Pats ability to consistently run ball you're kidding yourself. The Pats are seriously hurting for talent on the offensive side of the ball, and the talent they do have is aging rapidly. How can you honestly dispute this??

The Colts didn't run the ball because they couldn't. The Colts did draft two RBs in the first round so they can be blockers and occassional receiving targets. If you watched Colts games, they tried to run the ball early in the game and they just gave up many times because they were down and couldn't get the running game going (Manning had something like 8 4th quarter comebacks last year).

As for Houston's RBs and o-line, who cares. By your logic, they should have been middle of the pack even if they had five 90 year old grandmother blocking for a snail RB because defenses didn't care if they ran the ball. So the Pats had a horrible o-line and RBs and were middle of the pack, but the Texans couldn't.

As for having faith in the Pats consistently running the ball, that wasn't the issue. I just countering your argument that the only reason they were middle of the pack was because no one cared about them running the ball.

As for the RBs, I expect the Pats to draft a RB in the second round and rookie RBs could be immediate impact guys. As for the o-line, it is fine for next year although they need to consider the future.

 

[Kontradiction]

We already are a top 10 offense. Top 5 actually.
You are expecting improvement out of young defensive players, but nothing out of Edelman, Tate or Welker?

No, we weren't.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

Personally, I don't even believe that we deserved the 11th ranked defense touting in 2009.

 

[The Dynasty]

We already are a top 10 offense. Top 5 actually.
You are expecting improvement out of young defensive players, but nothing out of Edelman, Tate or Welker?

I think you misread what I said. I said with the players that we have now we could have a top 10 defense. With the players that we have right now, (minus Welker) we dont have a top 10 offense. We need to add a proven quality WR and a pass catching TE.

Edelman has only played the WR position for less than half a season of his entire football career, tough to count on a lot of production from him, although its very possible. Tate has been injured the past 2 seasons and is coming off a torn ACL, you cannot count on much production from him. It would be a nice surprise if we did. With Welker we dont know when he is coming back, he could miss the entire season, and then he could come back in week 1. There is a lot of uncertainty there, cant count on much from him in 2010.

The defense has young guys that have proven that they can produce. Chung, Butler, McGowan, Mayo all come to mind. I have a lot more confidence in those guys than I do in Edelman and Tate.

 

[Nonentity]

And your comments again highlight how 3rd WR is not as important as you would like to think. You said "But the different in the passing game from 2007 to 2009 was the lack of a Donte Stallworth, a legitimate threat on the opposite side of the field who can punish the other team." But that season Stallworth's role was lessened as the season went on and as the team realized Gaffney understood the system better. So to highlight how important the 3rd WR is you pointed to a guy who while he was productive lost his job to someone else who was equally as productive.

You're right, I forgot about Gaffney. But he was a legitimate player on that side, and I don't think we had that last season. Aiken didn't do much when both Welker and Moss were doubled, and that really bothered me. Do you really want to go into next season with Aiken as a starter until (if) Tate emerges?

Look the bottom line is that we have 4 guys with varying degrees of skill in Moss, Welker, Edelman, and Tate and I fully expect that 3 of them will be OK to go to start the season and with a little luck 4 of them could be up to speed and causing fear in defenses by season end. Then you also have guys like Aiken, Patten, any rookie we might draft to add to the depth and to secure any questions you may have with top 4. And IMO there are only a handful of teams that can say they are in better standing at the WR position and most of those teams have other issues too like the Colts who have a worse running game than us.

Moss, great. I still love Moss, I never really got too worked up about him 'taking plays off' last season.

Edelman, great. I'm glad he'll be able to step into Welker's spot in Week 1 and he'll be a good player in our 4WR scheme. I don't think he can really play alongside Welker though, they're too similar as players making it easier for the defense to cover them.

Welker - I want him back as much as anyone else, but we have to be ready for him starting the season on PUP. Edelman can step in for him, but there's no substitute for the real thing.


With Welker playing at an elite level we can get down the field fine. But the problem last season wasn't racking up yardage, it was scoring touchdowns. Once we get inside the 20 yard line it gets much harder because the field is so compressed. It's easier inside the 5 because Brady can throw it so accurately, but that 20-5 yard zone is a killer. Double Welker, play with a big cushion on Moss (or double him as well) and you stifle us so easily.

Solve the red zone and I think you solve the offensive situation. It could be with a 3rd receiver, it could be with a tight end who can reliably run routes and catch in traffic. I genuinely don't mind which, I just think we have more chance of finding that player in the receiver position rather than at tight end.

 

[BostonPatriot]

I don't understand the hysteria over a #3 WR.
Our 1 and 2 caught 200 passes.
In our 3 SB years our 1 and 2 caught between 97 and 152 and we never had a #3 catch more than the 37 Edelman caught last year.
When did #3 WR become a critical part of our offense?

In other words compared to our SB winners our #1 and 2 WRs caught between 50 and 100 more passes last year, and our #3 caught more than any #3 on those teams. Why is #3 WR our biggest issue when it was as productive as in any SB year even with much more production from the 1 and 2? Wouldn't you need a better 3 when your 1 and 2 are worse not when they are better?

It's 2010, not 2004! That was 6 years ago. It's a different NFL with different rules and teams passing all the time is status quo.

As most Pats fans these days, you are living in the past.