4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[PrairiePat]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

Yeah, they ran it on 1st down, got nothing. I think it was pass all the way on 4th with the game on the line. I still would have liked to see TB under center on those 2 plays, just to give the D some thought that he might hand off or sneak it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Heh. Good call, man. How about for $10,000? For a playoff game, the payout would be $100,000, and for the Super Bowl $1,000,000.



I wouldn't be so sure that BB didn't immediately regret that decision afterward, hence the facepalm.

Nah, it'd take way more than that. We're talking about my life here,

 

[VJCPatriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Now I don't know your metrics, but I think it's safe to say you're full of ****.

Nope these are the actual numbers from the official stastics of the game.
Try reading:

http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20091115_gamebook.pdf

Here are the 'metrics' based off the actual Indy drive charts.

Indy Colts

Ind 23 Punt
Ind 10 TD
Ind 20 Punt
Ind 20 punt
Ind 24 punt
Ind 20 TD
Ind 25 Punt
Ind 24 punt
Ind 14 Int
Ind 21 TD
Ind 18 Int
Ind 21 TD
NE 29 TD

Indy chance of scoring when starting drive on their side of the field -- 33% (4/12)
Indy chance of interception when starting drive on their side of the field --16.7% (2/12)
Indy chance of scoring when starting drive within NE 30 -- 100% (1/1)

I did all the math, and those are actual IN GAME statistics of the Pats vs Colts in THAT game. Not those rationalizing postulations based off 'league averages' that don't account for this particular matchup or set of circumstances - field position (inside 30), momentum shift, play call, etc. One set of stats is based on a rationalization to defend. The other set that I presented is based off the ACTUAL game. I suppose you could call the Kraft group stats as full of **** but I guess that just means you don't like looking at the REAL in game numbers.

Colts scored only 33% of the time when starting on their side of the field. And 100% when starting in the Pats 30. That's an immutable fact thats in the record books. Playing it safe and punting gives you a 67% chance to win based on the trends and stats in that game.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

i really hope they come up with a more technological way of marking the ball. not just because of this, but to make every game go smoother with less confusion/controversy...

Agreed- one thing that still shocks me is how technologically inept most major leagues are. Baseball, for example: with the amount of money that hte league spends every year, there is absolutely no reason why fair/foul balls shouldn't be determined largely, if not entirely, electronically. Even strikes and balls should be possible.

In the case of football, it's bizarre how much they leave spots up to the refs' eyes. I said it after the Ravens game (when it favored us), and I'm still saying it now: spots can be done more accurately, and they need to be done more accurately to preserve the credibility of outcomes.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You ever watch those games with a high powered offense is beating the crap out of an underdog, yet for some crazy reason the underdog has a monster 4th qtr (flukes, bad bounces, returns for TD's, etc), and all of the sudden the underdog has the favorite on the ropes. The underdog scores in the final seconds to come within 1.

Now, everyone with common sense knows in that situation, you keep pounding because the second you let the favorite off the ropes, they usually come back to pound you back. Go for the knockout while you can.

However, in the NFL, the underdog almost ALWAYS kicks the extra point and takes their chances in OT. The favorite then almost always comes back, kicks an easy FG in OT and wins. The losing coach survives another week because he made the 'safe' call, but still lost.

I want a coach who wants to win. I want a coach who will take a safety and give up points because it puts the team in better field position. I want a coach who looks at the reality of the situation and says 'This QB has been torching our defense, I have an MVP QB, an offense that has averaged 38 points a game over the past 4 games (including the colts game).. giving the ball back to them with 2 mins to go greatly increases their chance at winning opposed to NOT having the ball back at all.'

People can cry about it being a bad call, but i'll take a coach who risks his rep for the sake of winning instead of playing it safe and losing.

And that my friend hits the nail on the head, he's been doing things unconventionley for a while, you know by law of averages he was bound to lose one eventually and Im ok with that, he's won far more than hes lost, thats his style and his style will win more than lose.

 

[ivanvamp]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Nope these are the actual numbers from the official stastics of the game.
Try reading:

http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20091115_gamebook.pdf

Here are the 'metrics' based off the actual Indy drive charts.




I did all the math, and those are actual IN GAME statistics of the Pats vs Colts in THAT game. Not these defensive postalations based off 'league averages' that don't account for this particular matchup or set of circumstances - field position (inside 30), momentum shift, play call, etc. One set of stats is based on a rationalization to defend. The other set that I presented is based off the ACTUAL game. I suppose you could call the Kraft group stats as full of **** but I guess that just means you don't like looking at the REAL in game numbers.

Colts scored only 33% of the time when starting on their side of the field. And %100 when starting in the Pats 30. That's an immutable fact thats in the record books. Playing it safe and punting gives you a 67% chance to win based on the trends and stats in that game.

Yes, but a couple of things.

First, apparently (someone else looked this up) there's a 65% chance of succeeding on the 4th and 2, which is virtually an identical % that you gave for punting. However, there's still the chance that you could stop them, albeit very small. One drive is such a small sample size as to be virtually meaningless.

Second, and this is more important, go by *recent* history...and that means looking at the drives in the 4th quarter. It's clear that what happened in the 1st half really had no bearing on the 4th quarter, as it appeared that Manning had figured the Pats out. So look at the 4th quarter drives and you'll find that Manning was totally shredding the Pats at that point.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

1.) Why do you people refuse to admit that emotion plays a huge part in sports, even though the players will tell you that it does, and we see proof of it in game after game?

2.) Why do you think I'm referring only to the defense?

Because the decision showed a lot of (justified) faith in the offense. If you want to complain about the playcalling, then I'm totally with you, but the decision to go for it is telling your offense "I trust you to get 2 yards, even in an extreme pressure situation". I am absolutely okay with that- I'm just not okay with the decision to a) call a pass play on both 3rd and 4th (If nothing else, we should have run on third down to keep the clock going, not to mention to make the 4th down shorter) and b) to run a route that close to the market. While I thought the spot was bad, I can't blame the refs since you deserve to lose if you leave that play up to a judgment call from the refs.

Actually, I have supplied statistics/data in this very thread. I simply haven't been quoting the same flawed statistics over and over as some others have chosen to do, and I've been talking about the play in context, using surrounding statistics/data as part of the discussion: see "Maroney picked up a 2nd and 1 and a 3rd and 1".

Which part of the statistics do you disagree with?

In every major sport in the nation, we see the impact year after year. If that wasn't the case, we wouldn't need to play the games. Computer simulations would be sufficient to determine the champions of each and every league.

You're talking in pretty vague terms there. Are you saying that everything that can be accounted for in the NFL has already been accounted for, and there's no room left for innovation? Are you saying that every coach in the league makes the correct calls already, and there's no room to do it better? Did you also hold this position when Belichick went for the intentional safety, for starters? Because as badly as this decision is getting hammered, that one would have been far more controversial if the defense hadn't held. For better or worse, you have a coach who's far more concerned with doing what gives him the best chance to win than what's conventional. And in the NFL, convention fails to match up with best chance to win surprisingly frequently.

Everything that coaches do is playing the odds. There's no way to guarantee victory: you just stack the odds in your favor as much as you can, on a play-to-play and series-to-series basis, and you hope for the best. Oftentimes, no matter how well you play the odds, you still lose (if decisionmaking could guarantee success, Belichick would finish 16-0 almost every year). I've accepted that: that the right choice can sometimes lead to an undesirable outcome. Last night was one of those occasions.



It's not, really, because of something known as "context". Come on, now. You're usually better than this.[/QUOTE]

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

When the Patriots threw incomplete on third and 2, Belichick had already decided the Patriots would go for it on fourth. But a couple of players on the punt team trickled on to the field, and offensive players who saw them started running off. The play forced the Patriots to call their final timeout, which would prevent them from challenging the spot after Kevin Faulk's catch on fourth down.

The day after - Extra Points - Boston.com

 

[brady et al fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

it was a high risk high reward gambit that failed. I disagree with the mediot's assessment that Faulk was the wrong target. Faulk is a very reliable receiver and they should have been able to execute that play. I just wish they did not need the timeout beforehand. They would have had the Colts less prepared and obviously could have challenged the spot.

I kind of liked the call though. He was putting his faith in Brady to make it work and I felt like Manning was going to direct a scoring drive almost no matter where he started from since they were cutting through our defense like butter.

another round goes to Manning...

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 4X)

While I agree that the personal attack was pointless, how does that show that you've blown up a statistical argument that that guy didn't even make in the first place? Argue against the point on its own merits.

I have been arguing the point on its own merits. You're a smart cookie, Brady, but you have not been paying attention. If his statististical analysis is correct (I gave him the benefit of the doubt on that one) then there would be a 40% chance that the first down attempt would fail right? So if you're staring across the field at Peyton Manning, why would you not think that the 40% chance is too big of a one? This is something that has yet to be explained in this thread. But I let it go. In an attempt to dumb things down so that he would understand, I made that analogy. I think it's an apt one as giving Manning the ball at the 28 is pretty much a real life equal to running across a live gun range. And that's where we are now.

I'd hazard a guess that most of this board meets those qualifications, at least. I know I do, so I don't see how it proves anything either way.

It doesn't. As a personal attack (which, by the way is the tell tale sign that your opponent has been defeated and has no other points... for anyone that has actually taken Critical Thinking) was put on me which called out my intelligence and critical thinking skills, I felt it necessary to respond with that just to show how ridiculous that claim was. Really wasn't meant as anything else.

So in a decision that hinges upon the relative values of several different variables, you rest your case on one variable, without having to know anything at all about any of the other values? How can you make a decision between A and B with absolutely no knowledge of what B is? That's what you're claiming when you say that 40% is too much, period.

I already know enough about variable A, and that's that variable A failed and resulted in giving Manning the ball at the 28. Variable A also includes 0 timeouts to stop the clock should the Colts get the ball. So, by choosing Variable B you are essentially play it safe/close to the vest. When you're looking at gift wrapping one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game a 28 yard drive for a game winning score in a game with severe playoff implications, you always go with Variable B and punt the ball.

If you're willing to look at the other side of things, then you see that our chances of losing the game if we punted were almost certainly even greater.

How is that? I can see that we had a 55% chance of winning the game after we punted it away, but those chances are almost certainly lower if the 4th down conversion attempt fails (which is where my point about 40% being too high given where we were). On top of that, Manning had already threw up a couple of ducks that were picked off. If we had punted and moved out of the prevent defense, which brought the Colts back into the game, our statistical chances to win the game go up. Bottom line, like I've been saying, there is a very good reason why teams don't go for it on 4th down and > 1 in the shadow of their own goal post. Apparently, many people are finding out why today.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Nah, it'd take way more than that. We're talking about my life here,

It was more or less a joke, but I guess those would be the equivalents of a regular season game, playoff game, and a Super Bowl game.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Nope these are the actual numbers from the official stastics of the game.
Try reading:

http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20091115_gamebook.pdf

Here are the 'metrics' based off the actual Indy drive charts.




I did all the math, and those are actual IN GAME statistics of the Pats vs Colts in THAT game. Not those rationalizing postulations based off 'league averages' that don't account for this particular matchup or set of circumstances - field position (inside 30), momentum shift, play call, etc. One set of stats is based on a rationalization to defend. The other set that I presented is based off the ACTUAL game. I suppose you could call the Kraft group stats as full of **** but I guess that just means you don't like looking at the REAL in game numbers.

Colts scored only 33% of the time when starting on their side of the field. And 100% when starting in the Pats 30. That's an immutable fact thats in the record books. Playing it safe and punting gives you a 67% chance to win based on the trends and stats in that game.

You came to your 100% not only using a sample size of one, but your single data point didn't even exist until after the fact. Those are two enormous mistakes, either one of which would land you a failing grade in middle school statistics.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Because the decision showed a lot of (justified) faith in the offense. If you want to complain about the playcalling, then I'm totally with you, but the decision to go for it is telling your offense "I trust you to get 2 yards, even in an extreme pressure situation". I am absolutely okay with that- I'm just not okay with the decision to a) call a pass play on both 3rd and 4th (If nothing else, we should have run on third down to keep the clock going, not to mention to make the 4th down shorter) and b) to run a route that close to the market. While I thought the spot was bad, I can't blame the refs since you deserve to lose if you leave that play up to a judgment call from the refs.

It's stunning to me that this stuff has to be gone over at this point. Have people not watched football games before and seen the results of such things as having no timeouts to make challenges? Perhaps I need to continually re-post my first two posts from this thread:

The decision to go for it on 4th down after the play selected on 3rd down and the loss of the timeout, coupled with the time of the game, was, quite possibly, the stupidest on-the-field decision Belichick has made as coach of the Patriots, IMO.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...discuss-here-merged-6x-page4.html#post1593664

1.) They know the challenge rules, and they knew that the entire game could come down to a measurement. Once Brady had to burn that timeout, any thought of going for it on 4th down should have been ignored.

2.) If they were going to go for it on 4th down at that point, they should have run the ball on 3rd down. That incompletion, instead of something as simple as a Brady sneak, changed everything.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/293294-4th-2-their-own-30-discuss-here-merged-6x-page4.html#post1593715

Why people refuse to see this as a play IN CONTEXT continues to baffle me.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It's stunning to me that this stuff has to be gone over at this point. Have people not watched football games before and seen the results of such things as having no timeouts to make challenges? Perhaps I need to continually re-post my first two posts from this thread:



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...discuss-here-merged-6x-page4.html#post1593664



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/293294-4th-2-their-own-30-discuss-here-merged-6x-page4.html#post1593715

Why people refuse to see this as a play IN CONTEXT continues to baffle me.

Yeah, it's hilarious that this debate has been reduced to a statistics argument. Really lets you know how much of a stretch it is to defend Bill Belichick in this.

BB: "Hey guys, you should come walk into this fire with me. There's a 60% chance that you'll come out of it unscarred, but a 40% chance that you'll be mangled beyond all recognition!"

PatsFans.com: "Sign us up, Bill!"

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It's stunning to me that this stuff has to be gone over at this point. Have people not watched football games before and seen the results of such things as having no timeouts to make challenges? Perhaps I need to continually re-post my first two posts from this thread:

Those are slightly different topics. Do I agree with going for it on 4th and 2 inside your own 30? Yes, at the top level, that is the correct call, and the bulk of the discussion here has been about that.

Do I agree that the specific plays that were called on 3rd and 4th down were terrible, making it an inexcusably poor execution of that decision? Absolutely, and I said as much on one of the first posts in this entire thread.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It was more or less a joke, but I guess those would be the equivalents of a regular season game, playoff game, and a Super Bowl game.

It being a regular season, playoff, or SB game changes nothing. Your objective is the same in every case: to maximize your chances at winning the game. All that changes is the magnitude of criticism that you'll face if your team fails to come through, and luckily Belichick doesn't give a **** about that. He only cares about winning.

I like your posts most of the time, so please don't take this as an insult, but it's pretty clear that your characterization of the 60% argument fundamentally misunderstands that it's purely an evaluation of relative values. That 60% is absolutely meaningless without another number to compare it to.

And to address the point even in light of this: I would absolutely do something that had a 40% chance of killing me, if the payout for completing it successfully was sufficiently high (i.e.: if you make it out the other side, you have a 100% chance of living a long, carefree and fulfilling life).

 

[QuinielaBox]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This loss is tragic. But the real tragedy is not being able to preserve your time-outs to make challenges on critical plays. Also you are not trusting your defense. And also I thought that they would let Joseph Addai score with 1:08 left on the clock and give Brady the ball back down 1 point.

None of this happened and we are left with this incredible loss.

Lost all of this is that the Patriots lead the division by two full games and all they have to do is beat the Jets and then go to Miami to cinch the division in three weeks. Both are within their capabilities.

Every division winner qualifies for the playoffs.

The Patriots lost the war of attrition last night at least on the defensive side of the ball in the 4th qtr. Also, they cannot rely on their running game to run out the clock, unless you call those forward lateral WR screens to Wes Welker runs. Blame those factors before blasting Belichick. Those pinheads who get paid to write their sloppy essays on the ESPN website ought to learn the football game before writing.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Those are slightly different topics. Do I agree with going for it on 4th and 2 inside your own 30? Yes, at the top level, that is the correct call, and the bulk of the discussion here has been about that.

Do I agree that the specific plays that were called on 3rd and 4th down were terrible, making it an inexcusably poor execution of that decision? Absolutely, and I said as much on one of the first posts in this entire thread.

The problem is that they are NOT different topics, despite the efforts of some people to make it seem as if they are. They are all a part of the same greater analysis.

Hell, I'm a stats geek myself. I simply understand the need for context, and I consider that far more important than shining Belichick's shoes when he screws up as royally as he did last night.

If the team runs the ball on 3rd down and forced the Colts to use their timeout, that changes the equation, because the Patriots would have had time to make up their mind and get the proper personnel on the field, and they wouldn't have pissed away that final timeout. Had the team run the ball and gotten the game to the two minute warning, that would have changed the equation, because replay could still have come from the booth. However, neither of those things happened because of the bonehead decision on 3rd down.

What did happen was that the bonehead decision on 3rd down, coupled with the communications failure and subsequent burned timeout, changed the equation from "It's a short yardage play, but at least we can get a bad spot reviewed" to "It's a short yardage play, and a poor spot can screw us, because we can't get it reviewed".

To me, that makes going for it on 4th down, under those circumstances and with Manning getting the ball at the 30 if there is a failed conversion, a decision that's about as stupid as it gets, particularly when you add in the idea of going in the formation they chose and using Faulk rather than Maroney as the running back, which would have at least kept the defense honest. Short yardage plays are so often about the spot of the ball that relying on that without a challenge is just idiotic. They had the lead, for crying out loud, and they pissed it all away on one idiotic call.

 

[VJCPatriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The problem is that they are NOT different topics, despite the efforts of some people to make it seem as if they are. They are all a part of the same greater analysis.

Hell, I'm a stats geek myself. I simply understand the need for context, and I consider that far more important than shining Belichick's shoes when he screws up as royally as he did last night.

If the team runs the ball on 3rd down and forced the Colts to use their timeout, that changes the equation, because the Patriots would have had time to make up their mind and get the proper personnel on the field, and they wouldn't have pissed away that final timeout. Had the team run the ball and gotten the game to the two minute warning, that would have changed the equation, because replay could still have come from the booth. However, neither of those things happened because of the bonehead decision on 3rd down.

What did happen was that the bonehead decision on 3rd down, coupled with the communications failure and subsequent burned timeout, changed the equation from "It's a short yardage play, but at least we can get a bad spot reviewed" to "It's a short yardage play, and a poor spot can screw us, because we can't get it reviewed".

To me, that makes going for it on 4th down, under those circumstances and with Manning getting the ball at the 30 if there is a failed conversion, a decision that's about as stupid as it gets, particularly when you add in the idea of going in the formation they chose and using Faulk rather than Maroney as the running back, which would have at least kept the defense honest. Short yardage plays are so often about the spot of the ball that relying on that without a challenge is just idiotic. They had the lead, for crying out loud, and they pissed it all away on one idiotic call.

Agreed 100%. The analysis of the context is completely lacking when people spout off on that 60% 4th down conversion stat. It's never a good idea to basically gift wrap a TD to Peyton Manning on your own 28 yard line. If you make him march 70 yards down the whole field you're at least making him work for it. And Manning had thrown up some ducks in that game, so an interception was entirely possible. In fact it was 16.7% probable based on in game data.

You came to your 100% not only using a sample size of one, but your single data point didn't even exist until after the fact. Those are two enormous mistakes, either one of which would land you a failing grade in middle school statistics.

I guessed you failed to understand the meaning of 'context' in middle school. Because comparing 'league average success' of 32 different NFL teams on 4th down has little to NO relevance to discussing a particular matchup in a particular game. Since we don't have the luxury of dissecting 100 different Colts vs Pats games in the exact context of what happened last night, we have to rely on the data that we DO have from that game. I'll trust the stats from the ACTUAL game and ACTUAL matchups a lot more than a data set that is largely irrelevant to that night and THAT call with those TWO particular teams.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

What really grabs my trigger about what Belichick said in the PC was that "This move on 4th and 2 gave us our best chance to win the game".

I am sorry but for all the respect we have for BB,He was a total moronic buffoon last night....Did BB realize we were AHEAD on the scoreboard so how does going for it on 4th and 2 and risking giving a HOFer just 30 yards to win the game should the gamble fail make it the best chance to win the game?...we were ahead,not behind,this was something you would see occur from the poor teams in the league and thier coaches make...Get off the crack Bill and stop with the ******ed gambles please.


Man,it feels better to get that off my chest,now onto the Jets....