Is it me or is the level of uncertainty unusually high for this draft?

[Water Boy]

Here we are on the eve of the draft. After months of speculation, other than Stafford going to Detroit, and St. Louis taking either Monroe or Smith, it seems to me that there is almost no consensus in any mock drafts. I think I'd have a better chance picking names out of a hat than guessing who goes where in this draft. ;(

 

[Feep50]

It's just you..... This is the normal 48 hours before the draft hysteria and rumor mill extravaganza!!!!

 

[alvinnf]

Here we are on the eve of the draft. After months of speculation, other than Stafford going to Detroit, and St. Louis taking either Monroe or Smith, it seems to me that there is almost no consensus in any mock drafts. I think I'd have a better chance picking names out of a hat than guessing who goes where in this draft. ;(

Your right..... Every year I have a bet with a customer of mine. He wins he get's it for free, if he loses he pays double (Diet Coke). Ussually we pick position or offense/ defense or whatever? This year is an absolute crap shoot. Who would be shocked to see them do whatever. I do however feel as though Mayo may have given them a little taste of that top 10 talent, and they might be honing in on someone.(jackson or Ayers, for the record).

 

[supafly]

No, I think you're right on. That's why a lot of these mock drafts seem kinda silly to me, because you can't predict with too much certainty who trades at what specific pick, what team is targeting what player, who is gonna be remaining on the board, etc. Especially after the 1st rd or so, and even that is gonna be pretty hard. These so called experts and their 3 rd mocks crack me up, not that I could do any better--but that's the point.

It seems this yr it's even harder to try and figure what BB is thinking, it may be due to the unusual amt of picks on day one, and the various different opinions from all of these experts. Hell, we can't even truly agree what side of the ball it's gonna be in rd 1, although I hope it's defense myself. It could very well be a big offensive lineman too though.

 

[mgteich]

Yes. When the top analyst in the country has us picking a DT like Jerry then there is certainly uncertainty. Don't get me wrong, he is a fine player, perhaps the BPA. I just can't figure out how we would get first round value from him.

 

[DocE]

The level of uncertainty is high. I can't remember the last time someone was talked about as little as Tyson Jackson and flew all the way up to be considered the no.3 pick in the draft. Phillip Rivers had a fairly late rise up draft boards after being widely considered to be the 3rd QB and a later first round pick, but QB is a different animal.

I do think it's unusual that nobody knows for sure what OT the Rams prefer, but most have assumed it's Jason Smith.

I think the top guys are up in the air in part because there destinations are impacted by what pick in the draft becomes the Sanchez pick. If it's no.4 then does Cleveland take Curry/Crabtree or Raji at no.5? None of those guys are going 6 to Cincy and most think Oakland will take a speed WR (Maclin or Heyward-Bey and Lombardi is consistent in saying DHB). Then you get to Jacksonville at no.8 and they could choose between the 2 who are left between Curry/Crabtree/Raji, or they could they could take the T that is left either Smith or Monroe or they could trade down. Green Bay at no.9 has the same options and all the same guys make sense (except for Crabtree), but you have to add Malcolm Jenkins in to the mix due to their aging CB's.

The options change if nobody trades up to 4 and Seattle has to make a pick and I think they take Monroe there and he might not be if KC doesn't pick Jackson...

Lots of uncertainty, but I see why the Patriots are trying to get in to the bottom of the top 10. It's very likely a guy they have rated in their top 5 prospects could still be on the board.

 

[Water Boy]

What gets me is how little certainty there is even at the top of the first round. The parody of the draft class and the relative lack of pure blue chippers is presumably to blame. It gets even harder as you try to mock the mid to late first round and beyond as the talent levels off.


1. Detroit - Stafford
2. St. Louis - J Smith, Monroe, darkhorse - Crabtree
3. KC - J Smith, Monroe, Raji, Curry, T. Jackson, Andre Smith
4. Seattle - Curry, Crabtree, Sanchez, Monroe, J Smith, A Smith
5. Cleveland - Raji, Curry, Crabtree, Orakpo, T. Jackson
6. Cincinnati - Monroe, A. Smith, J. Smith, Orakpo, Crabtree, Raji, Beanie Wells