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Idle thoughts...

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patfanken

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....acutally not so "idle" since there has been a lot of sh!t going on the last few days. Plus its been a while since I just sat down to the computer to "expound" on all things Patriots.

1. Mike Vrabel - It was a shocker, at first that they'd trade him....then it was a stunner that they essentially gave him up for nothing. However after a lot of thought and a review of a few games last season, I've come to believe that the Pats just did a $3MM+ favor for a future HOF Patriot.

Yeah, I STILL would like to think that they could have gotten a 5th or 6th for him, but to what end. Given all the choices the Pats have this year, AND a limited amount of positions, and a ton of guys coming back from the IR, what would an extra pick at the end of the draft actually mean in the great scheme of things.

The hard truth of the matter is that Mikes game had slipped some in 2008. Clearly the stats weren't there. Your eyes told you what your heart didn't want to hear. He was no longer a consistant pass rush threat. He was no longer a cover LB you could count on. And while he played 85+% of the plays last season, that was more of a function of the fact that, for most of the season we was the only OLB who could be counted on to know where he was supposed to be. Mike was still excellent vs the run game and still is the hallmark to what it means for an OLB to "set the edge". BUT he carried a $4MM cap number and a salary that wasn't likely to match his production in 2009.

Also don't forget that the Chiefs not only took him, they took his salary PLUS his $1MM bonus. That to BB might have been worth more that a late draft pick, when the alternative was to simply let him go.

2. Now all this week on the radio, you hear about how the Pats now have a "HUGE" gap at OLB. I beg to differ. The fact is that last year the Pats played MOST of the season with an OLB tandem of Vrabel and Woods, (and after Woods went down, Colvin and Vrabel). Some how with a "suspect" secondary, made worse by a rash of injuries, they managed to win 11 games in a touch division, with those OLB tandems. Personally I think that a tandem of Woods in his 2nd year of starting, and AThomas, who was the Best defensive player on the field before he was hurt, is a better pairing. When you add those 2 to Crable, Tully, a 2nd round draft pick, and (in my dreams - playing the role of Junior Seau in 2009 - Jason Taylor)

We have all been looking to develop young LBs over the last few years. Well we have several on the roster RIGHT NOW - Guitan (sp), Crable, Woods, Alexander, all fit the description. Who knows who will end up being the next Mike Vrabel. Who knew who James Harrison was before the Steelers ditched Jerry Porter?

3. Now we all have had a few days to discect and analyze "the trade" ad nauseum, yet today D&C set a new record for pissing me off and forcing me to turn them OFF. Callahan using the his tired strategy of using half truths, inuendo, along with the usual snide and smarmy remarks and asides was STILL putting out there that the Pats were snookered by the Chiefs, and that some how BB was to blame for the sorry state of the franchise.

So for that reason I'd like to attempt to set down the why's and wherefores of this transaction and attempt to separate the rumor from the truth (at least as we know it) in a definitive way. Then I hope the wise readers here will review it and point out any mistakes or mistated remarks, with the end result we can put this to bed...finally. And have something to email Callahan as see how he spins it, because the THRUTH with NEVER get in the way of a Callahan opinion.

a. FACT - Cassel was traded to the Chiefs for the 34th pick in the draft - (I'll get to the Vrabel part later.

b. ISSUE - Did the Pats get the BEST offer available, and if not why?

c. On the surface it seemed that the Pats DID get short changed and could have gotten more, IF they had waited a few more days for several more substantial trades to evolve.

d. Rumors that have been stated as facts and continue to be so, even after they have been disproven.

1. The most common is the Pats could have gotten a !st and 3rd out of a three way deal with the Broncos and Bucs. This is plain wrong in so many ways. First it has come to light was the BUCS that would have gotten the 1st and 3rd for J Cutler, and Then the Broncos would send the Pats THEIR 2nd round pick (middle) and perhaps and additional lower pick (not confimed) for Cassel. This show a couple of things. First that a 2 time pro bowler w/40 NFL starts is worth a 1st and 3rd, not a guy who has 15 starts since HS. (though for the record given a choice, I'd take cassel, but it has more to do with Cutler's recent pouting than actual ability). Second there would be several risks involved with waiting for this deal to develop. Both Cutler AND Cassel would have had to agree with long term deals with BOTH teams before the tarde could go through. Even if it were possible it would have taken a week or more to put THOSE deals together.

An Important aspect of this deal is that KC took Cassel AND his cap number. If he doesn't like his deal, he can get paid $14+MM and be a FA NEXT year. Thats a risk KC took on with this deal. Both Denver NOR Detroit wanted LT deals in place BEFORE they would do the deal and that .... AGAIN.... would take time and more than a couple of days...which the Pats didn't have.

2. Detroit - offered the 33rd pick in the draft straight up, but like I said wanted a LT deal in place BEFORE they finalized the trade. Now what is the likelihood that the "LIONS" could put a deal in place in a day or two...week or two...more likely MONTH or two

3. Other players in the market like SF, Chicago, Panthers, etc, all were in no hurry to make a deal

BOTTOM LINE, and there is a bottom line - The Pats "might" have gotten a low pick for Vrabel if they held Pioli's feet to the fire, but they weren't going to get significantly more for Cassel, especially within the time limits they were being held to.

4. Quickly - I think the Pats will move to improve first at the S position, it is a bigger need, even before OLB, and CB. Don't forget we have 2 rookie CBs coming off of IR, and I think Wheatly will be a significant player before the end of the seaons. Plus there are a lot of seasoned vets out there to trot out and hope you pick a winner. I want to see MORE SIZE in our secondary this season
 
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Re: idle thoughts....

....acutally not so "idle" since there has been a lot of sh!t going on the last few days. Plus its been a while since I just sat down to the computer to "expound" on all things Patriots.

1. Mike Vrabel - It was a shocker, at first that they'd trade him....then it was a stunner that they essentially gave him up for nothing. However after a lot of thought and a review of a few games last season, I've come to believe that the Pats just did a $3MM+ favor for a future HOF Patriot.

Yeah, I STILL would like to think that they could have gotten a 5th or 6th for him, but to what end. Given all the choices the Pats have this year, AND a limited amount of positions, and a ton of guys coming back from the IR, what would an extra pick at the end of the draft actually mean in the great scheme of things.

The hard truth of the matter is that Mikes game had slipped some in 2008. Clearly the stats weren't there. Your eyes told you what your heart didn't want to hear. He was no longer a consistant pass rush threat. He was no longer a cover LB you could count on. And while he played 85+% of the plays last season, that was more of a function of the fact that, for most of the season we was the only OLB who could be counted on to know where he was supposed to be. Mike was still excellent vs the run game and still is the hallmark to what it means for an OLB to "set the edge". BUT he carried a $4MM cap number and a salary that wasn't likely to match his production in 2009.

Also don't forget that the Chiefs not only took him, they took his salary PLUS his $1MM bonus. That to BB might have been worth more that a late draft pick, when the alternative was to simply let him go.


I think that with the Pats starved for cap space, there was no way that they were going to keep Vrabel or give him his March 1 roster bonus. The alternatives were cutting him or trading him. Cutting him had 2 downsides: it would be a harsh way of treating a highly revered player, and it would allow him to go anywhere he wanted, such as to Cleveland and Mangini who would likely have been very aggressive about going after Vrabel given his lack of LBs. Trading him let him save face by sending him to a team where his veteran leadeship would be of value, and let the Pats control his destination while still saving his entire cap hit. That was much more valuable to BB than a late round pick who probably wouldn't have made the roster anyway.
 
Re: idle thoughts....

1. The most common is the Pats could have gotten a !st and 3rd out of a three way deal with the Broncos and Bucs. This is plain wrong in so many ways. First it has come to light was the BUCS that would have gotten the 1st and 3rd for J Cutler, and Then the Broncos would send the Pats THEIR 2nd round pick (middle) and perhaps and additional lower pick (not confimed) for Cassel.

Where did you hear/read this? This is the first I've seen of it.
 
Re: idle thoughts....

Ken, nice to see you back, but I have to flag you on the Woods playing time note (I agree with your Thomas/Woods...TBC & kids rotation thinking, but) Woods started "3" games, and the one he left early with his jaw injury: [url[http://www.nfl.com/players/pierrewoods/profile?id=WOO549326[/url]

Nice projection, bad history.
 
Re: idle thoughts....

great points......

I'd still put OLB ahead of S (given we have meriweather and sanders back there)
given the fact that the pass rush from the OLB position was horrible last year and given that, it may not matter who you have at S........no pass rush, big trouble.......

now while woods can fill in in spots, he has proven very limited in applying a pass rush.....and if he improves this year, I sincerely doubt it will be the kind of improvement the pats need to consider the spot effective.....the pats needs to get a vet to be an immediate impact along with a rookie (barwin) for the long haul
 
Re: idle thoughts....

Ken, nice to see you back, but I have to flag you on the Woods playing time note (I agree with your Thomas/Woods...TBC & kids rotation thinking, but) Woods started "3" games, and the one he left early with his jaw injury: [url[http://www.nfl.com/players/pierrewoods/profile?id=WOO549326[/url]

Nice projection, bad history.

Thanks for the correction. I'm actually very excited about watching Woods, Crable, and Guyton evolve. I think all gained valuable experience and having a full off season for Crable and Guyton will make significant improvements in their strength and flexibilty. I look for BIG improvements from those 2.

But the thought of Jason Taylor playing for the Pats gives me chills. He was one of 3 dolphin players of the recent era I ever rooted for. (the others were Wes and Zach)

In the draft and for the rest of FA, I really want to see us add some SIZE to our band of midgets in the secondary. Its becoming too common to see BIG WRs coming down with balls thrown ot who are guarded as well as possible. Its even worse since the NFL instituted touch rules in calling holding and PI.

Its kind of interesting that Cormartie is being talked about as trade bait. Would you give up SD's #2 for him. He had a great year in 2007, before slumping in 2008.
 
Re: idle thoughts....

Good summary. Since it doesn't paint Belichick as a mindless fool and/or a heartless b@st@rd, this type of take would never be in the mainstream.

The part of this that people just don't get is that Belichick franchised Cassel with every intention of trading him immediately when the new league year began. There was a 0% chance of the situation lingering. Everyone had to know this. If anyone wanted Cassel, they should have contacted Belichick BEFORE Cassel was franchised just to express interest. I imagine this is exactly what Pioli did which put him at the front of the line. The opening bid was #34 and there was no useful (read: done deal, not possibility) alternative on the table to make KC go higher. Detroit offering a pick one place higher (if they actually did) was not enough to overcome the Belichick/Pioli relationship and the likely fact that having the KC offer on the table early removed any risk in this situation for the Pats.

As for Vrabel, you are right on the money. It was painful to watch him continually slam into RTs and get stoned on the pass rush. He had no moves and no burst left. Since he had to stay on the field (the alternatives weren't ready) that restricted AD from rushing as much. Considering how AD could sack the entire Jet backfield with one arm, this was not a good tradeoff. Like Steve Martin in 2002, Vrabel was not only below expectations at his job...but there was a ripple effect on the rest of the defense.

If Vrabel was on the Pats roster March 2nd, it would have been because of past performance and not current production. Once you go down that dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny. While not ideal for Vrabel, the situation played out about as well as could be expected for him. Kept some good coin and didn't have to schlep for a job.
 
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Re: idle thoughts....

I don't disagree with the decison to send Vrabes to KC, even tho I love guy. However, you guys seem to be leaving out the fact that Vrabes played most of the games injured, and with 2nd, 3rd and 4th strings guys playing opposite him most of the games. Although I do think Vrabel is past his prime, I'm confident that he is still much better than the stats showed last year.

The Pats will be OK at the LB position, especially if they use a day one draft pick for one (which I believe they will). Several guys will be back from injuries, and AD, a pass rushing monster, is part of that group. I doubt Mayo will become a major pass rusher, but as he got more comfortable with the system, he did become progressively better at applying pressure last year... I suspect with a full year under his belt and an entire offseason to prepare, his pass rushing will improve significantly. Heck, I bet he'll even get a sack next year

Be patient. BB will likely sign a couple of free agents still, and has a pluthera of draft picks to add competition at every spot where there is a need. If the Pats can stay relatively healthy, they will be scary team next year.
 
Re: idle thoughts....

Its kind of interesting that Cormartie is being talked about as trade bait. Would you give up SD's #2 for him. He had a great year in 2007, before slumping in 2008.

I would in a heartbeat.
 
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Re: idle thoughts....

4. Quickly - I think the Pats will move to improve first at the S position, it is a bigger need, even before OLB, and CB. Don't forget we have 2 rookie CBs coming off of IR, and I think Wheatly will be a significant player before the end of the seaons. Plus there are a lot of seasoned vets out there to trot out and hope you pick a winner. I want to see MORE SIZE in our secondary this season

Interesting that just as I read your comment about wanting to improve the safety position, I got a google email alert saying that Mike Adams was visiting the Patriots:

Scout.com: Adams goes from Packers to Pats

He doesn't have the SIZE you wanted, but it was perfect timing.
 
Ken, great points as usual!

Just to add to your write up, I believe that Scott Pioli probably put some pressure (said or unsaid) on BB by pretty much saying that the #34 deal was on the table now but wouldn't last forever. In effect, he was giving a time limit to the deal and that should BB choose to pursue other ones, had they fallen through, the offer for #34 might be off the table at that time.

If I were SP, that's exactly what I would have done because I don't want my deal to be the "stalking horse" or the one that is used as the benchmark for the other teams to beat. That would not be a good position to be in if you were KC.
 
Ken, great points as usual!

Just to add to your write up, I believe that Scott Pioli probably put some pressure (said or unsaid) on BB by pretty much saying that the #34 deal was on the table now but wouldn't last forever. In effect, he was giving a time limit to the deal and that should BB choose to pursue other ones, had they fallen through, the offer for #34 might be off the table at that time.

If I were SP, that's exactly what I would have done because I don't want my deal to be the "stalking horse" or the one that is used as the benchmark for the other teams to beat. That would not be a good position to be in if you were KC.

The bottom line that a lot of people are missing is that Pioli was the only guy who, to that point would 2 two critical things the Pats wanted besides the compensation. He was the only one who would take Cassel WITHOUT working out a LT deal. He was the only one who would take on Vrabel's roster bonus and salary.

Granted I would have loved to see some low round pick for Mike, but then again, given the choice of having Scott take the burden of Vrabel's cap and cash requirememts and getting a redundant low pick that would have a hard time making the team this year, I'd take what the Pats got
 
A few things:

1.) As much as I loved Vrabel as a player, he is not a future HOFer. Patriots HOF maybe, but Canton never.
2.) Never listen to Callahan about anything. I heard part of his interview with Boomer Esiason today and Boomer said that they let go of Vrabel at the same age as they cut McGinest. Callahan chimed in that it was a totally different scenario because McGinest was a free agent and the Pats chose not to resign him. Now Callahan is still a columnist who follows the team. He should have remember the bruhaha when the Pats CUT McGinest because of his $8 million cap hit. The only difference between the two situations is that the Pats got rid of Vrabel by trading him instead of cutting him. This is just the most recent example of a long line of mistakes Callahan has in his self righteous arguments. Even the times I agree with him, I can't stand his logic.
3.) I do believe the Pats have a big gap at OLB, but not as big as portrayed. I think Vrabel's performance last year is overstated on how bad it was. It clearly wasn't a great season for the guy, but he was still very effective in many games. He is definitely not irreplacable, but he is a loss until they get an adequet replacement for him.
 
All this talk about the team going to cut Vrabel, or just not wanting him on the team, is just speculation. Many of the same people who are defending the trade by claiming the other offers were 'just speculation' and the like are guilty of doing the very same things in trying to justify the the trade.
 
All this talk about the team going to cut Vrabel, or just not wanting him on the team, is just speculation. Many of the same people who are defending the trade by claiming the other offers were 'just speculation' and the like are guilty of doing the very same things in trying to justify the the trade.

uuuuhhhhhh............what?
 
All this talk about the team going to cut Vrabel, or just not wanting him on the team, is just speculation. Many of the same people who are defending the trade by claiming the other offers were 'just speculation' and the like are guilty of doing the very same things in trying to justify the the trade.

He was going to be cut deus, he told those he spoke to on Friday that he was given a choice of that or a trade to Denver. In all liklihood a little discussion about waiving the roster bonus probably took place over the last few weeks and Mike probably refused to take an actual pay cut. He also knew it would be hard to find a suitor who would pay him $3.3M this season, let alone one running the same system he'd flourished in for several seasons...

Saved himself the indignity of being cut and the hassle of pounding the pavement and being forced to decide between comfort and compensation not to mention the risk of being cut yet again if he didn't fit someone's scheme or plans as camp wound down. He went where he was wanted. Belichick knew that Pioli had cap to burn in KC and a need for veteran 3-4 personnel to install that defense that would make Vrabel a value at $3.3M even down a step. So he did two guys a solid while at the same time freeing cap he needed even before the Cassel deal got finished and muting much of the criticism that would have been emanating from the locker room if a straight cut was involved. Also controlled where the player went - to a team we don't play this season.
 
A few things:

1.) As much as I loved Vrabel as a player, he is not a future HOFer. Patriots HOF maybe, but Canton never.
2.) Never listen to Callahan about anything. I heard part of his interview with Boomer Esiason today and Boomer said that they let go of Vrabel at the same age as they cut McGinest. Callahan chimed in that it was a totally different scenario because McGinest was a free agent and the Pats chose not to resign him. Now Callahan is still a columnist who follows the team. He should have remember the bruhaha when the Pats CUT McGinest because of his $8 million cap hit. The only difference between the two situations is that the Pats got rid of Vrabel by trading him instead of cutting him. This is just the most recent example of a long line of mistakes Callahan has in his self righteous arguments. Even the times I agree with him, I can't stand his logic.
3.) I do believe the Pats have a big gap at OLB, but not as big as portrayed. I think Vrabel's performance last year is overstated on how bad it was. It clearly wasn't a great season for the guy, but he was still very effective in many games. He is definitely not irreplacable, but he is a loss until they get an adequet replacement for him.

As much as I despise ESPN, I listen to ESPN raido in the morning just because of how arrogant and twisted D and C are. They've become parodies of themselves, and I just can't tolerate listening to them. Once 10:00 rolls around, I turn the dial to 850 for the rest of the day.

Hell, I would try to tolerate all the political bull squat about political crap that they can't seem to stop talking about, but their sports opinions are so tied to their own massive egos, that I just can't do it. I hate ESPN, but I want sports radio so much, I can deal with it. I simply can not deal with D n C. I want to keep my dial there, but until they find replacements, and they wouldn't even have to be quality ones, I won't be tuning them in before 10:00.

The meer fact that they've been able to stay on the air so long does not speak well of Boston folks.
 
He was going to be cut deus, he told those he spoke to on Friday that he was given a choice of that or a trade to Denver. In all liklihood a little discussion about waiving the roster bonus probably took place over the last few weeks and Mike probably refused to take an actual pay cut. He also knew it would be hard to find a suitor who would pay him $3.3M this season, let alone one running the same system he'd flourished in for several seasons...

Saved himself the indignity of being cut and the hassle of pounding the pavement and being forced to decide between comfort and compensation not to mention the risk of being cut yet again if he didn't fit someone's scheme or plans as camp wound down. He went where he was wanted. Belichick knew that Pioli had cap to burn in KC and a need for veteran 3-4 personnel to install that defense that would make Vrabel a value at $3.3M even down a step. So he did two guys a solid while at the same time freeing cap he needed even before the Cassel deal got finished and muting much of the criticism that would have been emanating from the locker room if a straight cut was involved. Also controlled where the player went - to a team we don't play this season.

I didn't hear about any such conversation, and the radio hosts didn't mention either monday or yesterday. Have you got a link?


P.S. I've got no problem with it. I've been saying that BB was doing a solid for Pioli, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were also the case for Vrabel.
 
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