Why The Patriots need a First Round pick for Branch

[brady2brown]

Pardon me if someone already posted this thought, but I keep reading about the Patriots trading Branch for a second, third or fourth round pick, and I cannot see it.

Maybe a high second, but remember if we trade him, there is no compensatory pick from the league.

If we keep him, and he goes FA, then with the contract he likely to get, we are pretty much guaranteed a third rounder, are we not?

So why trade him for a fourth when the league will give us a third?

Why trade for a third when we can have his services for at least seven games (and playoffs) and still get the third?

Why trade him for a second? Well, I guess you could, especially a high second, but wouldn't it be worth having him for the stretch run and playoffs when the price is getting a third rather than a second?

A first round pick I understand.

 

[Miguel]

If we keep him, and he goes FA, then with the contract he likely to get, we are pretty much guaranteed a third rounder, are we not?

There is no guarantee.

In order to get a compensatory pick in 2008, the Pats have to lose at least as many UFAs as they sign.

Examples -
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 8 UFAs. Will get comp picks
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 4 UFAs. May get comp picks.
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 1 UFA. Will not get any comp picks.

I am presuming that the UFAs qualify for the comp pick calculation.

 

[dryheat44]

There is no guarantee.

In order to get a compensatory pick in 2008, the Pats have to lose at least as many UFAs as they sign.

Examples -
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 8 UFAs. Will get comp picks
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 4 UFAs. May get comp picks.
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 1 UFA. Will not get any comp picks.

I am presuming that the UFAs qualify for the comp pick calculation.

Miguel, I really hate contradicting you, but I don't think the number of UFAs lost of gains enters much into the equation. If we lose Koppen and Branch to what Woody and Givens signed for, and sign five typical Patriot signings...Mel Mitchell, Reche Caldwell, etc. I believe we still get Comp picks.

 

[brady2brown]

There is no guarantee.

In order to get a compensatory pick in 2008, the Pats have to lose at least as many UFAs as they sign.

Examples -
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 8 UFAs. Will get comp picks
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 4 UFAs. May get comp picks.
Pats sign 4 UFAs, lose 1 UFA. Will not get any comp picks.

I am presuming that the UFAs qualify for the comp pick calculation.

You are absolutely right, of course. I said "pretty much guaranteed" for the exact reason you state. However, I have to think the Patriots front office is aware of the rules, and the fact that a FA Branch contract will net them a third round pick as long as fewer FAs they sign make their 53 than ex-Pat FAs make ohter teams 53.

It would be in their contol, at least, and they could decide if keeping a Mel Mitchell type is worth losing the third round pick for.

Maybe it will be. I sure don't know.

You are right. No guarantees. But I still wouldn't trade Branch for a fourth believing a third was on the way if he goes FA.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel, I really hate contradicting you, but I don't think the number of UFAs lost of gains enters much into the equation. If we lose Koppen and Branch to what Woody and Givens signed for, and sign five typical Patriot signings...Mel Mitchell, Reche Caldwell, etc. I believe we still get Comp picks.

http://www.patsfans.com/messageboard/viewthread.php?tid=5845#pid48153

Look at the history of comp picks. That backs me up.

 

[smg93]

From Miguel's link:

"Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games started as a general estimate) and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be com-pensated for the $4 million player."

Sounds more like it's about contract value rather than playing time. So Miguel's analysis would be right on if they lost and signed players of equal contract value across the board.

Dryheat of course would be right as well when he uses the scenario of losing a high value free agent and we sign more bodies but who end up from a contract value perspective being "less" overall than that one player we lost to FA and who got a huge contract.

 

[Miguel]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/9341500
"
Under terms of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in a year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks."

 

[Miguel]

Adamjt13 also said in the link provided:
"No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost"

 

[Joker]

Branch will be here to start the season

In fact, I bet a deal gets done to keep him here the next three/four years

Think...Tom Brady...he'd have to be nuts...just look at Givens so far...he's begging to be back here

 

[Pats726]

Branch will be here to start the season

In fact, I bet a deal gets done to keep him here the next three/four years

Think...Tom Brady...he'd have to be nuts...just look at Givens so far...he's begging to be back here

THAT would be great..but I think everyone thinks that reasonableness will all of a sudden appear...it may not..no indication of that happening...wishful thinking.

 

[Joker]

Under contract bro...no leverage