Wes Welker Speculation thread (pure opinion)

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

You get a pretty quick idea of who's read the OP and interpreted it pretty quickly these days don't you supa?

Yes, sir.

Apologies for those that did not understand the exercise/debate. Maybe I spend too much time checking in here throughout the day, but the thought was on my mind before/after the Irsay tweets today and I saw nothing but the same old threads-- so I took a risky chance in trying to discuss it with some speculation that it could be a possibility.

I can honestly say that I truly and seriously hope that they somehow still work out some kind of deal when the season is done, but I think those odds are pretty low.

My defending the reasoning for freeing up money and getting value at its highest was obviously perceived by some as a harmful act, and that was never the intention.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

nah...hate to disagree..but that is not Rage Rage, Tip...no....Rage Rage is out of sight but he's screaming... "Sanchez is on FIRE!!!!..Do YOU see a ceiling??..sky's the limit now!!! Sukk it you haters!!!!"...

Correction:

Mark Sanchez of the NY Jets after the NY Jets finish 6-10 this season.

You said "Sanchez is on fire" did you not?

 

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Correction:

Mark Sanchez of the NY Jets after the NY Jets finish 6-10 this season.

You said "Sanchez is on fire" did you not?

At least the teenage girls think so.

 

[Joker]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

yes I did...and from the looks of it...THAT is as about a perfect depiction of Sanfire as I've ever seen...heh heh heh

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Meanwhile in other news today:

The Surgeon General has determined that reading tweets from Incarcerated Bob is dangerous to your mental health.

 

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Meanwhile in other news today:

The Surgeon General has determined that reading tweets from Incarcerated Bob is dangerous to your mental health.

First of all, it was the tweets from Colts owner Jim Irsay stating that they were 'opening their checkbooks for a SERIOUS veteran/starter.' I don't know if Incarcerated Bob commented anything or not, but I doubt it was in regards to Welker.

Second of all, it came up in the Demps/roster spot thread too, so the thought that they may have been waiting for a team to lose an important WR in TC to get maximum value crossed my mind then too.

At the end of the day, I guess it's not a good idea to speculate on any potential moves for popular players, even though we all know they may not be here at the end of the season.

Most aren't going to read the main point or pay attn to the message anyway, they are just going to assume that you are here to 'cause trouble' or whatever. That's never been my M.O. and it never will be.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

The Patriots have 4 superior receivers:

• Gronk, who has had two highly regrettable injuries in the past four seasons.
• Hernandez, who always seems to have a boo-boo.
• Lloyd, who is new with the team.
• Welker.

Why again would it be a good idea to cut that number to 3, and watch it dwindle below 3 as injuries occur?

 

[patfanken]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Only read the first 3 pages. It seems like a very spirited conversation. I hope I don't go over too much plowed ground.

1. RE: Trading Welker - Don't see it. Certainly don't see the Colts. WTF would a rebuilding team give up one of its most valuable assets (their top draft pick) for a 31 year sold slot receiver.

Now there could be a team that views themselves one slot receiver away from a title that would be willing to part with a 1st for him, but that would likely to end up being a pick in the mid 20's at best. Personally I'd rather have a full season with Wes Welker this year than an extra pick at the bottom of the first round next. While that would make my spring more enjoyable, I'm more interested in having the last 4 months of the year be my favorite.

2. Assuming Welker is still every bit as good and durable that he's been the last 5 yrs, his production is STILL going down this season. It has to, if only because Brady has more targets, and if the running game is as good as we hope, fewer passes. Herandez will get more, Lloyd will get more than Branch did. The 3rd WR whomever that ends up being there will have a hard time being LESS productive than last year's group. The RB's will get more looks in the passing. Fewer look=Fewer receptions

A realistic estimate of Welker's 2012 production will be a lot closer to 80-90 catches and 1000 yds, than 120 and 1400. There is still only one ball. Its still a great year for just about every receiver in the league.....just not what he's used to putting up recently.

But here's the rub - It is 2013 and now he's a 32 year old, small statured WR, with a lot of wear and tear.....looking for big money and a long term contract. I just don't see the Pats giving him one, at that stage of his career, ....or at least one that he couldn't do better on. Always better a year too early, rather than a year too late. The league as been rarely kind to small WRs in this league. When they start to dip, the dip is steep.

So, my speculation is that the Pats keep him for this year and pay him well.....then wish him well and him on his way.....along with a 3rd round comp pick.

 

[BananaRepublican]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

SO BEFORE YOU FLAME AWAY, ARE WE 100% 'sure' THAT WELKER IS HERE THIS YEAR??

They've probably thought through a lot of scenarios earlier but I don't think they'll part ways with him this year. Not now. They are about to emabark on a mission from gawd.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

The Patriots have 4 superior receivers:

• Gronk, who has had two highly regrettable injuries in the past four seasons.
• Hernandez, who always seems to have a boo-boo.
• Lloyd, who is new with the team.
• Welker.

Why again would it be a good idea to cut that number to 3, and watch it dwindle below 3 as injuries occur?

Two options hurt the Patriots in the Superbowl. Three options may have been enough to make the difference. Four is just sexy.

 

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

They've probably thought through a lot of scenarios earlier but I don't think they'll part ways with him this year. Not now. They are about to emabark on a mission from gawd.

If you're wondering about 'why now?' It was due to thinking that they may be able to maximize their value if/when someone lost a WR due to injury who may overpay, and/or some added time in the past month (post 16 July date) to try and get a deal done.

I certainly agree that it is not likely that they will trade him, and I definitely hope they do not.

I think the pieces are there this year to make a serious run, however the argument could be made that he will never be 'this' valuable again as he is today due to another year of age + the likelihood of lessened stats, and that is why I have been thinking about it lately. The Irsay tweet along with some other very speculative factors allowed me to further explore the matter to see what others were thinking.

 

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Only read the first 3 pages. It seems like a very spirited conversation. I hope I don't go over too much plowed ground.

1. RE: Trading Welker - Don't see it. Certainly don't see the Colts. WTF would a rebuilding team give up one of its most valuable assets (their top draft pick) for a 31 year sold slot receiver.

Now there could be a team that views themselves one slot receiver away from a title that would be willing to part with a 1st for him, but that would likely to end up being a pick in the mid 20's at best. Personally I'd rather have a full season with Wes Welker this year than an extra pick at the bottom of the first round next. While that would make my spring more enjoyable, I'm more interested in having the last 4 months of the year be my favorite.

2. Assuming Welker is still every bit as good and durable that he's been the last 5 yrs, his production is STILL going down this season. It has to, if only because Brady has more targets, and if the running game is as good as we hope, fewer passes. Herandez will get more, Lloyd will get more than Branch did. The 3rd WR whomever that ends up being there will have a hard time being LESS productive than last year's group. The RB's will get more looks in the passing. Fewer look=Fewer receptions

A realistic estimate of Welker's 2012 production will be a lot closer to 80-90 catches and 1000 yds, than 120 and 1400. There is still only one ball. Its still a great year for just about every receiver in the league.....just not what he's used to putting up recently.

But here's the rub - It is 2013 and now he's a 32 year old, small statured WR, with a lot of wear and tear.....looking for big money and a long term contract. I just don't see the Pats giving him one, at that stage of his career, ....or at least one that he couldn't do better on. Always better a year too early, rather than a year too late. The league as been rarely kind to small WRs in this league. When they start to dip, the dip is steep.

So, my speculation is that the Pats keep him for this year and pay him well.....then wish him well and him on his way.....along with a 3rd round comp pick.

Good comments, Ken.

The conversation should not have been anywhere near as 'spirited' as you say, but sadly the disagreement by a couple/few of the same old suspects seems to always make a simple, fun football debate turn that way. It'd be nice if posters from the same side could just treat each other respectfully (or at the very least--actually READ the OP and comments), but such is life.

As far as the Colts themselves and their situation, I would question as to whether or not we could actually receive a 1st from any team though to be honest. I just don't see anyone giving up a 1st, although I would imagine a 2nd and an additional mid round pick, like a 2 + 4 for example, or a 2 + 5. Something of that nature.

I think that the 1st rd picks are usually reserved for the young, promising, proven blue chip prospects, and even then as we saw--Matt Cassel didn't draw a 1st. Unless you are a Fitzgerald, a Ware, a Calvin Johnson etc, I think it may be hard to give up a first rounder. We have seen the lack of first round picks most recently in restricted free agents as no one would bite, and there has been an absolute overall lack of first round trades in general in the NFL.

That said, I don't think it makes much of a difference as to whether or not the agreement is on a 1st or a 2nd/+mid, because they are awfully close in nature, and arguments could reasonably be made for both sides, so that really isn't the point or the problem.

Your scenario regarding the 3rd round compensation pick which would occur one year after his departure which would be in the spring of 2014 is still very valid and worthwhile. Getting a 3rd in compensation would likely be just fine too, so I think that's a great point. It doesn't save the 10 million or so that moving him now would, but since we are in cap heaven both now and in the immediate future it likely would not matter.

 

[supafly]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

The Patriots have 4 superior receivers:

• Gronk, who has had two highly regrettable injuries in the past four seasons.
• Hernandez, who always seems to have a boo-boo.
• Lloyd, who is new with the team.
• Welker.

Why again would it be a good idea to cut that number to 3, and watch it dwindle below 3 as injuries occur?

I think that is a very good comment that definitely points towards it making more sense to keep him. Although the overall top 4 targets certainly look pretty significant at the moment, they likely will not stay that way towards the end of the year when depth is at its most important.

As Aus pointed out, even 2 of those (assuming Welker plays to the top of his game in the SB as he usually does in almost every scenario) were close to getting it done.

3 of those options would surely have gotten the job done, and 4 will possibly put up record numbers if all are healthy.

 

[BTTA]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

I think it was just "too outside the box" for many to accept, and they are assuming that I am wanting to dump Welker. I'm not, I was actually trying to look at it both ways, and that was unsuccessful.

I appreciate the thread, and wish those who can't deal with it would take a breathe and relax.

The core problem is that you are inviting others into a dialogue (a co-created conversation, based on curiosity and experimentation) and many here only know how to be part of a discussion (throwing opinions at each other, with an objective of winning).

This explains a lot of it: Amazon.com: The Argument Culture: Stopping America's War of Words (9780345407511): Deborah Tannen: Books

But this is a football board, a place where the attitudes and behaviors that make civilization possible are often the object of scorn and humiliation, so it's par for the course.

Maybe the thing to do is to start a "Trade Brady NOW!" thread and all of the fire throwers will run over there as a crowd and leave this thread alone.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

What Belichick wants in return from Welker at his highest point is production. And by all accounts he's had a stellar camp. Better even than Edleman...

Better than Edelman? You're just a hater.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

We all thought bb was crazy when he shipped Seymour out.

What are you talking about? Many here (including myself) strongly defended the move and thought it made great sense. It was a shock, sure, but it made sense.

Trading Welker and probably significantly lessening your Super Bowl chances makes little sense if you're in it to win it - and I think BB's in it to win it.

 

[IndyKen]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Welker to the Colts? That's all crazy talk IMO - how on earth would that help us this year in getting to the SB and winning it? Next year will take care of itself, let's focus on the here and now - and another SB win is overdue.

 

[Joker]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Welker is not playing in tonight's game...another healthy scratch?

Perhaps Supa IS on to something..........

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Welker is not playing in tonight's game...another healthy scratch?

Perhaps Supa IS on to something..........

How about he's a rental right now and we don't want him to become a Rent-A-Wreck?

 

[BradyManny]

It's funny how the internet works.

Jim Irsay puts on Twitter they are going to sign a Vet.

Some poster on a messageboard (not even this one, though I know it was done here too) suggests the Colts should be targeting a trade for Welker.

BSMW contributor George Cain probably reads this, and then suggests Welker might be traded this week on his twitter. He asks Greg Bedard and PFT if they have heard anything about Welker to the Colts.

That's how rumors get started, and why we discount 95% of rumors until we get anything of substance to back them up.