Wes Welker Speculation thread (pure opinion)

[Ian]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

If you're wondering about 'why now?' It was due to thinking that they may be able to maximize their value if/when someone lost a WR due to injury who may overpay, and/or some added time in the past month (post 16 July date) to try and get a deal done.

I certainly agree that it is not likely that they will trade him, and I definitely hope they do not.

I think the pieces are there this year to make a serious run, however the argument could be made that he will never be 'this' valuable again as he is today due to another year of age + the likelihood of lessened stats, and that is why I have been thinking about it lately. The Irsay tweet along with some other very speculative factors allowed me to further explore the matter to see what others were thinking.

I understand your thought process - I don't agree with it - because it doesn't make sense to hurt the team in the short term for long-term gain, especially when you're trying to win now. Imagine the offense without Welker considering a lot of the uncertainty surrounding some of the new guys, it's just too big of a gamble. I'm guessing the Seymour trade should have at least been a good example when you think of how it affected their defensive line that season. Don't get me wrong, they got decent compensation, but I don't think anyone can deny it hurt them that year.

Needless to say it would be a dangerous trade, and I think they should maximize the $9.5 million by getting as much out of them this season as they can. With him on the field, it's going to make everyone better

 

[IllegalContact]

the pats are just going to give him the same offer next year.......he will be a year older.......

wes welker will likely lose at least 1/3 of his targets (172 last year)....I believe he will be hard pressed to have 1000 yard season this year.

 

[borg]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

A one year rental at the tune of 10 million dollars when we will not get anything in return just hasn't made much sense to me lately from a Belichickian standpoint.

I'll play.

This is a thread I've thought about starting several times...but never thought a reasonable discussion would result. Lots of points and counterpoints to be had here.

For the sake of discussion, lets assume the cost to trade for Welker is a #1.....resulting in a player under contract for 4 years minimum. A mid 1st rounder this year (Jones) was given $8 mill/4 years. So for less than the cost of the 2012 Wes Welker, the Patriots could secure 4 years of a mid first round player in his early to mid 20s and have $2 mill to spare. For a team looking long term, this could be seen as a very attractive option.

To take this scenario a step further, remember that BB and the Patriots are in a position that they prefer not to be in....that is owning only their slotted draft picks ...no extra picks on their books next draft. Such a trade could not only provide immediate dividends via a younger locked up player, but the annuity drafting program could get reorganized.

Now lets look at the schedule and try to figure out ...is it worth the risk to trade away a sure thing. The schedule is underwhelming and last month I posted a list of QBs the Pats would be facing this year and this list is less than underwhelming.

If BB has faith that his D has progressed to the point that he doesn't need his offense to play pinball on the scoreboard, then trading Welker may not seem so far fetched .

It certainly would be a bold move by both organizations (assuming we are talking about the Colts)

 

[Ian]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Now lets look at the schedule and try to figure out ...is it worth the risk to trade away a sure thing. The schedule is underwhelming and last month I posted a list of QBs the Pats would be facing this year and this list is less than underwhelming.

If BB has faith that his D has progressed to the point that he doesn't need his offense to play pinball on the scoreboard, then trading Welker may not seem so far fetched .

It certainly would be a bold move by both organizations (assuming we are talking about the Colts)

I understand what you're saying, but my concern isn't the regular season, it's the playoffs. Obviously at that point in the season the level of competition increases and opposing defenses get better (theoretically), so I think moving him would hurt them there. The goal is to win a championship, and I just think as nice as another #1 would be (I don't feel they'd get that...but that's not for me to say), it's just too big of a short-term risk.

 

[BelizePats]

The argument can easily be made that Welkers value to the Patriots as a 2012 Patriot has never been higher. Why would coach mess with that when his goal is to win the Super Bowl?

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Good comments, Ken.

The conversation should not have been anywhere near as 'spirited' as you say, but sadly the disagreement by a couple/few of the same old suspects seems to always make a simple, fun football debate turn that way. It'd be nice if posters from the same side could just treat each other respectfully (or at the very least--actually READ the OP and comments), but such is life...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/928169-trade-wes-now.html

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/98/917694-now-hes-signed-do-we-trade-welker.html

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Needless to say it would be a dangerous trade, and I think they should maximize the $9.5 million by getting as much out of them this season as they can. With him on the field, it's going to make everyone better

Others have said it...there is no better use of $9.5 million of this year's cap than having the best slot receiver ever on the field making plays and keeping the GOAT happy and focused on his 2012 mission.

This team has lots of young players and can add more next year to keep the juggernaught jugging.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

I'll play.

This is a thread I've thought about starting several times...but never thought a reasonable discussion would result. Lots of points and counterpoints to be had here.

For the sake of discussion, lets assume the cost to trade for Welker is a #1.....resulting in a player under contract for 4 years minimum. A mid 1st rounder this year (Jones) was given $8 mill/4 years. So for less than the cost of the 2012 Wes Welker, the Patriots could secure 4 years of a mid first round player in his early to mid 20s and have $2 mill to spare. For a team looking long term, this could be seen as a very attractive option.

To take this scenario a step further, remember that BB and the Patriots are in a position that they prefer not to be in....that is owning only their slotted draft picks ...no extra picks on their books next draft. Such a trade could not only provide immediate dividends via a younger locked up player, but the annuity drafting program could get reorganized.

Now lets look at the schedule and try to figure out ...is it worth the risk to trade away a sure thing. The schedule is underwhelming and last month I posted a list of QBs the Pats would be facing this year and this list is less than underwhelming.

If BB has faith that his D has progressed to the point that he doesn't need his offense to play pinball on the scoreboard, then trading Welker may not seem so far fetched .

It certainly would be a bold move by both organizations (assuming we are talking about the Colts)

Define immediate... There is no way a team trades a first for welker at age 31. Because they would also have to pay him $9.5M this season as a one year rental or sign him to a longer term deal he was willing to agree to (which would likely have to top $16M guarantee based on experience...).

The Colts aren't looking at adding a WR let alone another over 30 one. They're looking for a corner according to sources. And Jeff Howe tweeted a while ago that he inquired as to whether there was any relation to the Irsay tweet and Welker, ane th response he got was "LOL". Which is the same response this thread deserves.

 

[Danger Zone]

Id be one of those owners / gms that would let loyalty and respect for a players past service get in the way of me making the smart move..

That said, Id trade Welker+ for a Revis, a younger Ed Reed or a Matthews etc

 

[ATippett56]

How many players from the 2003-04 New England Patriots defense did the New England Patriots receive draft pick compensation via trade:

Ted Washington - unrestricted free agent
Keith Traylor - roster cut
Richard Seymour - traded to Oakland for a 2011 first round draft pick
Ty Warren - roster cut
Jarvis Green - unrestricted free agent
Willie McGinest - roster cut
Rosevelt Colvin - roster cut
Mike Vrabel - traded to Kansas City as part of the Matt Cassel deal
Tedy Bruschi - retirement
Ted Johnson - retirement
Roman Phifer - retirement
Ty Law - roster cut
Tyrone Poole - roster cut
Asante Samuel - unrestricted free agent
Randall Gay - unrestricted free agent
Rodney Harrison - retirement
Eugene Wilson - unrestricted free agent
Guss Scott - roster cut
Dexter Reid - roster cut

The vast majority of the aforementioned players fell into one of three categories:

Roster Cut
Retirement
Unrestricted Free Agent

 

[borg]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

I understand what you're saying, but my concern isn't the regular season, it's the playoffs. Obviously at that point in the season the level of competition increases and opposing defenses get better (theoretically), so I think moving him would hurt them there. The goal is to win a championship, and I just think as nice as another #1 would be (I don't feel they'd get that...but that's not for me to say), it's just too big of a short-term risk.

Certainly an interesting discussion. Past history...Seymour and Branch....clearly shows that BB has willingly accepted the risk.
Now the real question, IMO, comes down to team priorities, dispursement of dollars, and filling voids. The organization clearly placed Gronk in the high priority column and locked him up. And considering the teams detirmination to secure every available TE in the league, I will go out on a limb and say Hernandez's future is the new priority #1. Which leaves us at the WR position. Can a Lloyd/Edelman combo come close to equaling the Welker/Branch duo last year. If BB feels its close....and BB thinks his D is ready to stop offenses instead of slowing them down...then would it be so crazy to ship off the teams 3rd priority/yet most expensive pass catcher?
It would be a hell of ballsy move.

I'm on record as posting that Welker will not come close to his stats from last. In 2011, defenses weren't ready for the pass happy Os. Just not enough preseason time to get organized. Welker went from averaging 150 yds/game in games 1-4 to 75 yds/game in 5-16.
Add in the fact that Lloyd numbers should eat into Welkers stats....plus new OC. If such a trade was to occur...it would be in the Sell High category for sure. If you can get a #1 for a tiny 30+ year old white guy....it has to be considered.

Questions
Indy...Give Luck a binky?
Pats...Can Brady survive behind the O line without his quick pass outlet?

Fun talk.....moving on....nothing to see here......BUT.... BB would give this scenario serious consideration IMO.

 

[Off The Grid]

Assorted Random Musings...

1 ~ You could've made an Argument for trading Welker before the Draft, on the condition that he signed, first, obviously ~ and some smart people did so ~ because you could've gotten a Pick ~ or Picks ~ that would've produced a contributor for this year's team.

2 ~ And you can argue ~ as I have ~ that the team would benefit more, in the long term, from reducing the role of the "Slot End" to a Sub Pack role, in favor of an additional Wing Back ~ like Aaron Hernandez ~ or Flex End ~ like Vernon Davis, perhaps ~ who'd give us far more'f an Hybrid Pass/Run threat.

3 ~ But domination of the middle of the field is disproportionately critical to winning The Grim Games of Deep Winter. If we hadn't neglected our flanks so egregiously, the last couple years, I'm certain that our rather amazing domination of the interior would've translated into back to back Super Bowl Championships.

4 ~ Now that we've emphatically addressed our weak Flanks in the Passing Game with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, and ~ hopefully ~ Donte Stallworth, the last thing I want to do is compromise our domination of the center of the field just when we've done what we need to do to cut these guys LOOSE!!

That's how I see it, anyway.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Past history...Seymour and Branch....clearly shows that BB has willingly accepted the risk.

With regard to Richard Seymour and Deion Branch, salary cap ramifications both game into play with both players.

The New England Patriots currently do not have salary cap issues for the 2012-13 NFL Season.

 

[JMarr]

The argument can easily be made that Welkers value to the Patriots as a 2012 Patriot has never been higher. Why would coach mess with that when his goal is to win the Super Bowl?

I agree. With Brady's mobility and throwing range diminishing, coupled with an offensive line which will probably be worse than last season's (especially without Light protecting the blind side), the quick timing routes that Brady and Welker have made a living off of will be even more crucial to the passing game this year. Taking that away could cripple this offense and could allow teams to actually neutralize Gronk, not to mention the rest of the passing game.

Welker is in the prime of his career right now, and for the hundreth time, he is infinitely more valuable to the Pats than he would be to any other team. Even if the Pats wanted to trade him they would never get a fair return IMO. And why in the world would the Colts want him? They're at least two years away from contending for anything except being one of the league's worst teams.

 

[ATippett56]

1 ~ You could've made an Argument for trading Welker before the Draft, on the condition that he signed, first, obviously ~ and some smart people did so ~ because you could've gotten a Pick ~ or Picks ~ that would've produced a contributor for this year's team.

This issue was debated earlier this year and was a heated (to say the least) argument at that time.

 

[Danger Zone]

I agree. With Brady's mobility and throwing range diminishing, coupled with an offensive line which will probably be worse than last season's (especially without Light protecting the blind side), the quick timing routes that Brady and Welker have made a living off of will be even more crucial to the passing game this year. Taking that away could cripple this offense and could allow teams to actually neutralize Gronk, not to mention the rest of the passing game.

Welker is in the prime of his career right now, and for the hundreth time, he is infinitely more valuable to the Pats than he would be to any other team. Even if the Pats wanted to trade him they would never get a fair return IMO. And why in the world would the Colts want him? They're at least two years away from contending for anything except being one of the league's worst teams.

You make as persuasive an argument for keeping Welker as any Ive read except:

1) Gronk cant be neutralized except by injury.

2) I think Welker would receive a lot of interest from other teams and potentially "fair" value. A lot of coaches and gms wouldnt be immune to paying for a little of the Welker / Brady magick imo.

But while I think the team would better off with having Welkers value (+) transferred to the defensive side of the ball, I am looking forward to having him on our team for one last year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I don't think the value will present itself for it being worth trading Welker. If I were BB, the only way I'd even consider trading him is for an offer of at least 2 1sts's. And I doubt that's going to happen.

He's likely going to have another monster year despite a plethora of targets for Brady, and adds too much to the offense on what should be another chance at a super bowl trophy this year. He's more valuable to this team than Asante was in 2007 when he was kept under the franchise tag so I can't see him being traded for anything less than a ridiculous offer.

 

[goheels22002]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

With regard to Richard Seymour and Deion Branch, salary cap ramifications both game into play with both players.

The New England Patriots currently do not have salary cap issues for the 2012-13 NFL Season.

I completely agree. Further, Welker poses zero salary cap issues for next year. Seymour and Branch were two completely distinct issues. Seymour was a high-cost guy with injury issues. Seymour played half a season in '07 after knee surgery. He had a good year in the last year of his contract in 2008 but was due another big pay day. Vince Wilfork emerged then as the centerpiece of the line and was due big money, too. When Al Davis offered the #1 pick in the 2011 draft for Seymour, the contract plus the draft pick were too much. Nothing like that is in play with Welker.

Branch was going for his big pay day after being SB MVP and the Pats simply said, good luck and Godspeed. Nothing rancorous - just business similar to Damien Woody's departure for the Lions. These guys get one shot at the brass ring and owe it to themselves and their families to take it.

Welker's $9.5 million for one year is not a burden and his departure after this season will be market driven, if he leaves at all.

 

[fester]

Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Two options hurt the Patriots in the Superbowl. Three options may have been enough to make the difference. Four is just sexy.

Three probably would make the difference. I've long argued that the Patriots' pick your poison offense is predictated on having three players who should be double-covered or at least have help rotated over the top. If that happens, everyone else is on single coverage or less. Good defenses can minimize a single elite player, manage two elite skilled position players and collapse with three elite players.

The match-up nightmares for the Patriots are likely to get hurt at least for a couple of games per year. Having only three match-up nightmares means it is reasonably probable that at least one of them is at least dinged up for a high stakes/elimination game at the end of the season. Having four of them gives decent odds that there are at least three in good enough health for high-stakes/elimination games in January/February.

Why trade one of the weapons away when the team has cap space and has engaged in behavior that strongly suggests that it does not see itself in a rebuilding/reloading phase?

 

[Snake Eyes]

I agree. With Brady's mobility and throwing range diminishing...

Why would you say his range is diminished?