Why is age a concern when drafting a QB

[rabidfireweasel]

I am hoping to focus this thread on the topic of draft eligible QB age: not the other traits that may lead to success. In many threads, I have seen where posters knock Daniels because he is older; this entire draft crop in multiple sports has older players eligible due to COVID.

My question is- why would that be a knock? (i get if if you don’t like him because of his build, concerns about his ability to drive the ball to the middle of the field, his surrounding talent at LSU, etc) The QB has to be a leader on the football team. Where is the advantage of having a younger guy with less life experience and less QB experience being the face of your franchise. I don’t think that there are an abundance of examples where younger guys have had more success that 3-4 year college starters at the QB position. Alex Smith started young, but that was only because he graduate college at 20.

Daniels has over 50 starts- 20+ at two different schools, started as an 18 year old 185 freshman in a legitimate conference, and has had two learn different offensive systems and had to put the team on his back many times. Why is his age and experience a concern to some and not a clear benefit?

 

[jmt57]

I am hoping to focus this thread on the topic of draft eligible QB age: not the other traits that may lead to success. In many threads, I have seen where posters knock Daniels because he is older; this entire draft crop in multiple sports has older players eligible due to COVID.

My question is- why would that be a knock? (i get if if you don’t like him because of his build, concerns about his ability to drive the ball to the middle of the field, his surrounding talent at LSU, etc) The QB has to be a leader on the football team. Where is the advantage of having a younger guy with less life experience and less QB experience being the face of your franchise. I don’t think that there are an abundance of examples where younger guys have had more success that 3-4 year college starters at the QB position. Alex Smith started young, but that was only because he graduate college at 20.

Daniels has over 50 starts- 20+ at two different schools, started as an 18 year old 185 freshman in a legitimate conference, and has had two learn different offensive systems and had to put the team on his back many times. Why is his age and experience a concern to some and not a clear benefit?

Others here who focus more closely than I on college football and the draft can answer your question better than I. That said, I believe it is because a younger player would typically have a higher ceiling, whereas an older player has plateaued and hit his ceiling.

 

[Ivan]

I am hoping to focus this thread on the topic of draft eligible QB age: not the other traits that may lead to success. In many threads, I have seen where posters knock Daniels because he is older; this entire draft crop in multiple sports has older players eligible due to COVID.

My question is- why would that be a knock? (i get if if you don’t like him because of his build, concerns about his ability to drive the ball to the middle of the field, his surrounding talent at LSU, etc) The QB has to be a leader on the football team. Where is the advantage of having a younger guy with less life experience and less QB experience being the face of your franchise. I don’t think that there are an abundance of examples where younger guys have had more success that 3-4 year college starters at the QB position. Alex Smith started young, but that was only because he graduate college at 20.

Daniels has over 50 starts- 20+ at two different schools, started as an 18 year old 185 freshman in a legitimate conference, and has had two learn different offensive systems and had to put the team on his back many times. Why is his age and experience a concern to some and not a clear benefit?

My primary concern with it is that 23 year olds are usually men, and 19-20 year olds are usually boys. If you want to see this contrast on the field watch the U.S. National Soccer teams, the difference between the U-20 team and the U-23 team is dramatic. So in college football when your QB is 23-24 years old, and playing against 19-20 year olds, for the most part, it’s a man against boys, whereas your 20-21 year old QB’s are still playing against their peers. That said I’m still fine with them taking any of the top 4 QB’s in this draft, although they all have areas to work on any of them would be a massive upgrade over the dogshit we have been watching the past couple of seasons.

 

[JohnJH]

Age would only be more of a factor in this respect: If you have a QB who is only 20 to 22 years old in his rookie season, and has the desired tools (even though there are some flaws that proper coaching can solve), and your offense as constituted when you draft him still needs another off season of talent acquisition through free agency and the draft to give him the tools in his 2nd season (as he can sit a year or so like Aaron Rogers, Jordan Love, and even Mahomes sat most of his rookie season, etc.), then he'll still be young when he starts. Whereas if you're QB is 23 or older in their rookie season and you don't have the talent on offense to help them succeed, that could be a problem. Especially with Jayden Daniels, who they might be inclined to start as a rookie because of his running ability. But, as someone pointed out, Anthony Richardson is 40 pounds heavier and even faster and got injured 3 times in 4 games in his rookie season. I would prefer a younger in age QB who has the tools to work with, even though they have correctable flaws, but can sit a year. Especially on an offense that will need another off season to add talent (which the Patriots most definitely do). Just my humble two cents.

 

[State]

It shouldn’t be. Only for a prospective wife.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

My primary concern with it is that 23 year olds are usually men, and 19-20 year olds are usually boys. If you want to see this contrast on the field watch the U.S. National Soccer teams, the difference between the U-20 team and the U-23 team is dramatic. So in college football when your QB is 23-24 years old, and playing against 19-20 year olds, for the most part, it’s a man against boys, whereas your 20-21 year old QB’s are still playing against their peers. That said I’m still fine with them taking any of the top 4 QB’s in this draft, although they all have areas to work on any of them would be a massive upgrade over the dogshit we have been watching the past couple of seasons.

I understand this youth/upside sentiment with soccer players, basketball players, and positions like DT, Edge rusher, RB and corner. In those cases, most of the best players have elite physical skill. But being a QB requires leadership, being able to look across the huddle and correct people in a way that they want to do it better, and having the mental toughness to take a huge shot and be ready to stand and deliver on the next play. So much of it has with traits beyond throwing velocity or foot speed. It seems to me that most would value maturity and experience over the potential upside that comes with youth.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

It goes both ways
A younger QB has a higher ceiling because they may have obvious needed skills. Just haven’t had the experience or repetitions which will provide much room to grow once they are exposed more. (low floor, high ceiling)
Because they have not had as much exposure they may not have what it takes to grow. Which means higher bust potential.
An older QB probably has had more exposure. So you can see more of what you will get in that player which lessons the bust potential but lowers the ceiling. Not that they won’t grow more. Just that their canvas is more filled in.
More of a long ball chance with the younger player. But more of a chance to fail.
Older player may be what you see is what you get with a little room to grow

As far as longevity. 2 years is not that big of a deal. But you will feel the need to play an older player sooner. QB’s seem to play longer which is not much of a worry

 

[SammyBlueCat]

All prospective players are interviewed and during an interview, their maturity is determined.

 

[IcyPatriot]

QB's

Chris Weinke .... 28 years/ 264 days ... pick #106 ... 2001 draft.
Jim Drunkenmiller .... 24 years/212 days ... pick #26 .... 1997 draft.
Brandon Weeden ... 28 years/195 days pick #22 ... ... 2012 draft.
Phil Sims ... 24 years/181 days .... pick #7 ... 1997 draft.
Kenny Pickett ... 23 years/326 days ... pick #10 .... 2022 draft.
Chad Pennington ... 23 years/294 days ... pick #18 ... 2000 draft.

 

[Salsalife]

Brady was 22

 

[scott99]

I’m 61 and I have no concern with the Pats drafting a QB. Oh wait, you didn’t mean it like that.

I think people worrying about the age of QB prospects is silly.

 

[Aussie Patriot]

I think people worrying about the age of QB prospects is silly.

It's silly not to consider it.

Maye and JJ are 21, the others are 2-3 years older. They are physically more mature, mentally more mature, have waaaaay more experience etc.

Maye and JJ have way more upside than the older players based purely on that alone. Now that doesn't mean they will end up better but we pretty much already know what the older guys are.

The age thing isn't just an NFL thing btw, it's all sport and all walks of life.

 

[Ivan]

I understand this youth/upside sentiment with soccer players, basketball players, and positions like DT, Edge rusher, RB and corner. In those cases, most of the best players have elite physical skill. But being a QB requires leadership, being able to look across the huddle and correct people in a way that they want to do it better, and having the mental toughness to take a huge shot and be ready to stand and deliver on the next play. So much of it has with traits beyond throwing velocity or foot speed. It seems to me that most would value maturity and experience over the potential upside that comes with youth.

But that wasn’t the question. The question was about concerns people have with older QB’s, and my concern in evaluating older QB’s coming out of school is that they are essentially men playing against 19-20 “ boys.”

This doesn’t mean they can’t be a great QB in the league for a long time, they can, it just means that evaluation s skewed that. And given how long a QB can play in the league now if they work out then there isn’t much concern about longevity.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

But that wasn’t the question. The question was about concerns people have with older QB’s, and my concern in evaluating older QB’s coming out of school is that they are essentially men playing against 19-20 “ boys.”

This doesn’t mean they can’t be a great QB in the league for a long time, they can, it just means that evaluation s skewed that. And given how long a QB can play in the league now if they work out then there isn’t much concern about longevity.

To your point, age is something that needs to be evaluated when drafting an older QB just like injury history. Since people develop at different rates, it may help a player with a lot of potential who is not as mature as others his age develop enough to legitimately compete for a job in the NFL. Where they would not have had a chance without that extra time to develop. On the other hand, it should be a red flag if the player has hit his ceiling and excelled because they were more experienced or physically mature than the competition.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

For the QB's in question, it's the difference between 22 (McCarthy, Maye) vs 24 (Daniels, Penix). It shouldn't be a consideration at all imo. QB is more about experience than strength/speed anyway, plus at the other end of their careers it also doesn't matter very much.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

A 23-24 yo has two years or more lopped off their career before they even play down. If the player is a running QB like Daniels, that's two years off his prime because it's such a big part of his game. That prime will be shortened further by injuries. Then you wonder -- even if he is effective at first -- how his game will look once frequent runs are in his rear view. Will he still be an NFL starter once that can't be a primary feature of his game?

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

For the QB's in question, it's the difference between 22 (McCarthy, Maye) vs 24 (Daniels, Penix). It shouldn't be a consideration at all imo. QB is more about experience than strength/speed anyway, plus at the other end of their careers it also doesn't matter very much.

You're not concerned about what happens with Daniels's game once his athleticism is curbed by injuries and time? What does his game look like without elite athleticism? Right now it looks like a lot of sacks, especially since he won't even have elite receivers to throw to (at first). And because he is two years older, his peak athletic performance will be shortened by two years. His age is something to be carefully weighed.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

A 22 yr old sits on the bench for a year, and a 24 yr old starts right away. So the difference is 1 year - insignificant.

 

[mister clyde]

A 22 yr old sits on the bench for a year, and a 24 yr old starts right away. So the difference is 1 year - insignificant.

All these people worried about if they guy they draft will retire in 10 years vs 15 vs 20, when they should be worried about if he's going to get a second contract. It's way too early to worry about when the guy retires, quite possibly from a different team.

How old is Mac Jones now? Would it have made a difference if he had been slightly older or younger? Doubtful.

 

[NashuaPats]

I think the concern is more about how old a player is when he breaks out. If Maye or Williams stayed in school another season for their own personal reasons, it would not hurt their stock come the 2025 draft. If anything it would actually help as teams would appreciate the extra experience. The problem is a few players we’re seeing this year that didn’t have a breakout season until they were 23 years old and in their fifth college season. What took so long? Are they really that good or is it case of a man vs boys.