Interesting perspective on picking a QB with a high draft pick...

[jmt57]

From a tweet of Jacob Robinson who posted this, he is a writer from The Athletic & Morning Huddle up.
Validates why so many of us are skeptical on using our draft capital with pick #3...

Chart accompanying today's Scoop City newsletter, which looked at the success rate of QBs drafted in the Top-10.It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.
It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.

View attachment 57331

For context I would like to see the same data and criteria on other positions.
What are the results when a team drafts a WR, OT, Pass Rusher, Corner, etc.?

The implication may be "don't draft a QB early", but comparison to other positions with the same paramaters is necessary to reach an objective conclusion.
For all we know the bust/hit rate is identical - or even worse - at other positions.

 

[Jim Beankie]

This seems to confirm that taking one is worth it.

Unless my math is bad which it usually is:

We have a 1/4 chance at getting a star.
And better than a 1/2 chance at a starter.

Because this is a deep class you could then maybe even play with the numbers because it's probably less likely for a Major reach and if we take those off the chart the odds go up even more.

By the way:

To play the stats game, I'll add that 6 of the 7 Stars were among the 1st 2 picked QBs, with Allen being the only 3rd picked QB to become a star. If 2 QBs go in the 1st 2, then... I'm not gonna tell you the odds of success in this case per your request.

 

[Jim Beankie]

For context I would like to see the same data and criteria on other positions.
What are the results when a team drafts a WR, OT, Pass Rusher, Corner, etc.?

The implication may be "don't draft a QB early", but comparison to other positions with the same paramaters is necessary to reach an objective conclusion.
For all we know the bust/hit rate is identical - or even worse - at other positions.

I posted something related in the BGC 2024 QB thread. If the Pats want to maximize their chances of an offensive All Pro, then a Tackle is their best bet based on the recent data.

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I'll probably post this multiple times in multiple places, but here is a list of First or Second team All Pros picked in the top 10 by position and year from 2000 on. The 6 All Pro QBs were Carson Palmer (1st), Matt Ryan (3rd), Cam (1st), Wentz (2nd), and Mahomes (10th).

2011 was a disaster for QB needy teams. QB2 Jake Locker and QB3 Blaine Gabbert were the only 2 who didn't end up being an All Pro. Heck they weren't even Pro Bowlers. What hurts is that JJ Watt was picked at #11. QB4 Christian Ponder was at #12. Ouch.

This is just informational.

BGC 2024 QB/PTP Thread

I'll probably post this multiple times in multiple places, but here is a list of First or Second team All Pros picked in the top 10 by position and year from 2000 on. The 6 All Pro QBs were Carson Palmer (1st), Matt Ryan (3rd), Cam (1st), Wentz (2nd), and Mahomes (10th). 2011 was a disaster...

www.patsfans.com

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Every year's draft is its own group of players. The fact that there were 3 great QBs in the 20XX draft but none in the 20YY draft tells absolutely nothing about what this year's crop of players will turn out like.

 

[TheRainMaker]

What they aren't considering are years when teams would overrate QB's to justify them being taken. Guys like Locker, Gabbert, Bortles, Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Lance and Wilson had absolutely no reason being taken as high as they went.

If teams did a better job at evaluating QB's and not overreaching for them, we'd see less massive busts at that position.

The likelyhood we see the top QB's taken in the draft flame out is a high possibility. Are Williams, Daniels, Maye, etc. really the best players in the draft?

 

[signbabybrady]

To play the stats game, I'll add that 6 of the 7 Stars were among the 1st 2 picked QBs, with Allen being the only 3rd picked QB to become a star. If 2 QBs go in the 1st 2, then... I'm not gonna tell you the odds of success in this case per your request.

Wasn't Herbert the 3rd QB selected too. I think I saw some other older examples too (Jim Kelly).

 

[Clonamery]

Every year's draft is its own group of players. The fact that there were 3 great QBs in the 20XX draft but none in the 20YY draft tells absolutely nothing about what this year's crop of players will turn out like.

Live only by statistics, die only by statistics.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Wasn't Herbert the 3rd QB selected too. I think I saw some other older examples too (Jim Kelly).

Herbert's not a star. Not even close. He may get there. Everyone's still waiting.

I think the original post was within a certain time frame (as in the last 15 years or so), but yeah JAllen, Kelly, BRoth, and Favre are the only 3rd pick QBs that I see in the last 50 years who've become stars.

Edit: I'm curious now about how many stars have come out of where QBs were picked (1st, 2nd...). Clearly it'll be disproportionately for the 1st picked but the question is just how much so?

 

[Stu Pidassle]

For context I would like to see the same data and criteria on other positions.
What are the results when a team drafts a WR, OT, Pass Rusher, Corner, etc.?

The implication may be "don't draft a QB early", but comparison to other positions with the same paramaters is necessary to reach an objective conclusion.
For all we know the bust/hit rate is identical - or even worse - at other positions.

Good point. Finding NFL players is risky at any position. A quick google found that there is a 30% hit rate on draftees. The following breakdown by round and position is pretty interesting.

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

What they aren't considering are years when teams would overrate QB's to justify them being taken. Guys like Locker, Gabbert, Bortles, Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Lance and Wilson had absolutely no reason being taken as high as they went.

If teams did a better job at evaluating QB's and not overreaching for them, we'd see less massive busts at that position.

The likelyhood we see the top QB's taken in the draft flame out is a high possibility. Are Williams, Daniels, Maye, etc. really the best players in the draft?

the wilson hype kind of reminds me of mccarthy esp after the pro day. wilson had an incredible pro day as well, people were not as high after the end of the college season

 

[jdlboot14]

So much said, so much prognosticating.
The ONLY factor that separates whether a top round QB will succeed or not is his mental makeup.
That includes: X's & O's processing, mental toughness to handle pressure/adversity, and work ethic/determination
The first one teams can somewhat evaluate, the other 2 you can only get a glimpse until 1 or 2 years into his career.
That's why it's a gamble, and you never know who will turn into Manning, and who will turn into Leaf.
It's rarely a question of IF they have the necessary physical talent.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Edit: I'm curious now about how many stars have come out of where QBs were picked (1st, 2nd...). Clearly it'll be disproportionately for the 1st picked but the question is just how much so?

My very unofficial and very subjective list from the last 50 years:

15 1st
8 2nd
4 3rd
1 4th
2 5th
2 6th
3 7th
3 8th
0 9th (Purdy)
0 10th+ (Brad Johnson, Flutie)
3 UDFA

 

[Jim Beankie]

the wilson hype kind of reminds me of mccarthy esp after the pro day. wilson had an incredible pro day as well, people were not as high after the end of the college season

I remember that hype - it was that darn off platform fade away throw for 52 air yards that essentially bumped him allll the way up to #2.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I remember that hype - it was that darn off platform fade away throw for 52 air yards that essentially bumped him allll the way up to #2.

Thats exactly the throw I had in mind
I wonder if the draft nicks have studied jjmc tape during the season or if they just started weeks ago and this explains his rise because a good pro day shouldn’t lead to such a rise, the tape doesn’t lyi

 

[Patriot Missile]

Things that are true:

1. You need a star QB to win in the NFL
2. The bust rate on top 10 QBs is high.
3. The bust rate on QBs picked elsewhere is high
4. The best place to find a franchise QB is the top 10.

Pretty much sums it up. Do your homework, take your shot and have faith your staff can develop him.

 

[50-yard-line]

Good point. Finding NFL players is risky at any position. A quick google found that there is a 30% hit rate on draftees. The following breakdown by round and position is pretty interesting.

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Makes sense, since QBs drafted in the later rounds are usually just there to hold a clipboard, and many never get any real chance at all.

 

[Kasmir]

For all the people insisting that you need to draft a QB at #3 to become a Super Bowl contender, do you know how many times in the last 37 years a QB drafted between 2 and 9 in the draft has won a Super Bowl?

I believe the answer is once. Trent Dilfer, who was drafted 5th but didn't win with the team that drafted him, so no team in the last 37 years has done it with a QB they drafted between 2 and 9.

If anything, history says don't take the QB at 3.

Unless a palm reader says otherwise.

 

[sportnik]

From a tweet of Jacob Robinson who posted this, he is a writer from The Athletic & Morning Huddle up.
Validates why so many of us are skeptical on using our draft capital with pick #3...

Chart accompanying today's Scoop City newsletter, which looked at the success rate of QBs drafted in the Top-10.It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.
It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.

View attachment 57331

Whatever. People assume drafting a OL is a sure thing, but the reality is that the success rate on drafting OL’s is no different. The difference is, if you hit on an OL your team still sucks, but if you hit on a QB your competing for Superbowls.