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Wes Welker Speculation thread (pure opinion)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by supafly, Aug 23, 2012.

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  1. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    First of all, let me apologize ahead of time for those who will take this the wrong way.

    This thread isn't going to gain me any popularity points here, but since it's kind of a down time, let's go over this again regarding the situation of Wes Welker and his future here:

    REASONS WHY HE WOULD STAY

    1. Obvious chemistry with Brady

    2. Still the bread and butter of the offense

    3. Makes the team an instant competitor for one last year

    4. Under contract w/franchise tag + we are in a good cap situation overall

    REASONS WHY BELICHICK WOULD CONSIDER TRADING HIM

    1. One year rental and not much if any future here, the sides could not come to a reasonable agreement

    2. HC may not see too much value at 10 million dollar/one year rental

    3. It could be argued that we have improved enough to withstand his loss, with the additions of Llyod, Gaffney, the TE's, and a hopeful run game

    4. Sell high--Wes' value is considered very high now, as opposed to the assumed lesser value that next year may bring with an additional year older and the likelihood of less balls and chances seen his way



    To take the whole "speculation" feeling even further, let's look at some of the recent happenings that may/may not have an effect on this situation:

    1. A somewhat harsher negotiating situation at times--words were said by Welker (although he backtracked pretty quickly). The front office came back with an even lessened offer than they originally had last year, which came off of a career year for Welker. That is a bit strange to me, and kind of tips the front office's hand that they are ready to part ways sooner rather than later and do not see a future here past this year

    2. We've had some decent improvements on both sides of the ball, and added some more weapons that may make his departure a softer situation. This includes a strong camp by (sigh) Edelman, who was removed very early in the game last week, likely equating to a solidified roster spot despite his controversy on these boards. Demps was another addition, and although that does not really equate to a possible departure from Welker, we have had plenty of discussions in terms of "who's" roster spot Demps will take. Even though Demps has not earned anything, the writing on the wall is there for him to make the 53 man roster with his signing bonus and contract. Is there a possible bigger picture here?

    3. The likelihood that a FB will be on the team, which points to more use of the running game. It would certainly make sense for Belichick to want to use more of a balanced attack as he was probably not thrilled with the TOP factor and the inability to close out some of the games last year. Although again--this may not immediately point to anything to do with Welker, it does go hand in hand with the idea that Welker will have lessend stats than last year, meaning that his VALUE IS AT ITS HIGHEST NOW

    4. To take the potential paranoia even further: Tonight Colts owner Jim Irsay sends multiple messages on twitter that "he has his checkbook ready," and that they are "ready to part with a high pick for a SERIOUS vet/starter." While most/all will be focused on the names of Wallace and Jones-Drew, is there any possibility of Belichick deciding to take a high offer now, gaining a higher draft pick in the process and also knocking an additional 10 million off the books for the future? This would put us in an even better cap situation heading into next year and the future for likely dealings with Hernandez, Spikes, Chung, Vollmer, McCourty etc

    5. Welker has been held out of practice for no apparent reason, as no one can point to anything being wrong with him on any level. While this likely doesn't mean anything at all but veteran rest in TC, it may point to something more

    SO BEFORE YOU FLAME AWAY, ARE WE 100% 'sure' THAT WELKER IS HERE THIS YEAR??

    (and for what it's worth, I hope to hell that he is and he continues to finish his career here)
  2. Joker

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    LMAO!!!!

    Hoo boy...WTF are YOU smokin' and can I get some???

    so, you smell a Milloy coming???

    this team has definitely got inside your head....Machiavelli would hire you as a ghost writer
  3. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    While I'm not really predicting a WWW trade, the thought did cross my mind tonight.

    I am simply wondering if it crossed anyone else's lately.

    I'm still finding it hard to believe that Belichick will be okay with paying 10 million for a one year rental, and I think that is having some effect.

    As we all know, no one is past the point of making the team as a whole--better.

    I am SURE that it has crossed Belichick's mind at some point, we can probably agree on that.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  4. Joker

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    well, thanks Supa...you fooked up my night pretty good...now I'M thinking of getting out the telescope and see if the sky is still up there..

    a nagging question for me is why would BB trade Welker NOW that he brought in Lloyd, a WR that practically guarantees single coverage for Wes in passing sets...and of course, THIS opens up the Edelperson fan barrage of back and forth "Edel can handle it!!".."No,he can't!!".

    I like simplicity...calm...jettisoning Wes Welker would go down as one of the most talked about moves any Boston area team ever made...is that what Kraft and Co. want going into a season with such high hopes??
  5. ATippett56

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    To put things in perspective, Julian Edelman has a better chance to be cut than Wes Welker traded this season.
  6. Patstopia

    Patstopia Rookie

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    Yup, this turned my stomach pretty well. I guess I'll just have to suffer thru a few more beers...Just to calm myself you understand.;)
  7. Rob0729

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    Although I am at the point that I wouldn't be shocked if Belichick moved anyone not named Brady, I don't see a trade of Welker to the Colts making much sense. The Colts really have no players on their roster that the Pats would want to make an immediate contribution worth the value of Welker. It doesn't make sense for the Colts to give up a high draft pick for a Welker since he probably has 2-3 years left at most and they are building for the future around Luck.

    Irsay is a crazy loon. I don't put much faith in his gibberish on Twitter.

    I never thought the Pats would trade Seymour and they did. It wouldn't be unprecedented. I still think it is highly unlikely that Belichick would part with Welker now or the Colts would give up a high draft pick for a player who will be declining when Luck finally hits his groove.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  8. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    I'm not suggesting any kind of pessimism or that there would be anything even wrong with the move, to be honest. I would not personally agree with it, but one can certainly make a case for selling high.

    It's not 'just' the Llyod move. It's the solid play by the TE's, allowing for a positive feeling moving forward on that aspect, especially after last year. It's the stronger showing of the defense, the likelihood of the running game having a lot lessened looks for Welker's stats next year, the addition of a guy like Gaffney who has good chemistry with Brady in the past. The solid camp from Edelman MAY/MAY NOT have something to do with it, but that's not where I'm going with this, as that issue has been played to death already. Only Belichick knows his feelings on #11's future in the slot--if there is any.

    Basically...it's the thought that Belichick will try and get something in return for Welker at his highest point while he still can, and the fact that a LOT of money would be saved in the process.
  9. Deus Irae

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    Disable Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    [​IMG]
  10. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    I don't want to make this about Edelman vs Welker or any of that.

    Only Belichick knows whether or not he sees any fit for Edelman here as a slot man of the future.

    Like I said, the thought has crossed my mind lately and I wanted to judge other reactions (honest reactions).

    I knew it obviously wouldn't be the most popular of threads, but those who know me realize that I don't have any negative intentions by talking about the situation one last time as we head into the season.
  11. Joker

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    well, think about it...this third game looks to be THE game of preseason...so I expect to see the #1 offense out there for at least the first half...if we don't see Welker, then your opinion would seem to carry a lot of weight...obviously...and then all hell will break loose in the media...
  12. MoLewisrocks

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    Belichick paid $7.2M to rent Asante Samuel for one more season (in which we went to the Superbowl but let's not rehash how well that played out) and he just blew $10M on the short term rental of 2 former Bengals. He's not losing sleep over Welker's $9.5M and neither should you. It's only money and Kraft obviously has plenty of that.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  13. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    A one year rental at the tune of 10 million dollars when we will not get anything in return just hasn't made much sense to me lately from a Belichickian standpoint.
  14. Rob0729

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    Considering the Pats are about $10 million under the cap and could get the $3.8 million back on the cap next year from Fanene, Belichick doesn't have to worry about cap room. And the actual dollars aren't his money.

    I don't see Kraft ever telling Belichick that he has to trade Welker because he doesn't want to pay $9.5 million to him.
  15. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    Yes, but I do think that there may be more value there in Welker's situation.

    Although I myself would not agree with the move, one has to admit that Belichick himself probably has thought about it this summer.

    I'm not pulling it out of left field, especially if we're going to more of a balanced attack as the picture seems to point. FB, running game, TE, addition of high draft picks on defense, addition of more proven WR's, etc.
  16. Christopher Patriot

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    I agree 100 percent.
    Welker to the Colts makes all the sense in the world, when I read the cryptic tweets of Mr Irsay it makes sense.
    At first thought I was thinking, Maurice Jones Drew but then I was thinking What if it's Welker the fact he was held out of practice the fact that earlier in training camp they were working Hernandez on Welkers routes.
    This would do 2 things give us extra draft picks for next year "
    ''future"
    Move a veteran to a team ready to compete right away and provide Luck with a security blanket and true professional.
    Makes alot of sense but as Irsay said these things could fall apart.
  17. ATippett56

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    The likelihood of a fullback on the roster is sheer speculation on your part. The ability to run the football requires the offensive line to run block which was absent against the Philadelphia Eagles this preseason.

    The onus of the TOP factor is on the New England Patriots defense; the ability for the New England Patriots defense to get off the field on third down was a major stumbling block last season.
  18. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    No, but having 10 million more dollars to carry over on top of the money we already have would make sense in a future building standpoint of the team.

    Again, I'm not saying that's what I want, but that the thought has been out there.

    It's a downtime for the boards, I thought I'd at least bring up something worthwhile/creative.

    Most will not agree with the thought, I stated that in my first sentence.

    The idea of saving that money has been growing on me a bit, looking more at the bigger picture.
  19. Rob0729

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    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    First, you assume the Pats won't resign him next year. No one knows that.

    Second, the Pats could get as high as a third round compensatory pick for him. He probably would net them a 4th rounder. So they will get something in return if Welker goes elsewhere next year.

    Third, I don't know why the Colts would give up a high draft pick for Welker. They aren't Wes Welker away from competing for a Super Bowl this year. If the Colts are going to give up what could be a top 10 pick or even the #1 overall, they will want to give it up for someone they will pair with Luck for at least 4-6 years if not longer. Otherwise, why not keep the pick and draft his stud WR for the next decade next year.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  20. patsinthesnow

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    #87 Jersey

    Re: Speculation thread (pure opinion)

    The return is we field the most stacked offense in history this season, no?
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