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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Obviously Bill Belichick will never be confused with **** Vitale.Did have to make a comment that doesnt relate to the thread...but as a Falcons fan I dont listen to much of the Bill Belichick media sessions/interviews (until this week of course)...but I think I can say, without a doubt, that he is the best coach that doesnt get excited about football in the history of the game.
Great info! Thanks! Yeah, I had heard he is a great guy to talk to when the mike isnt in his face...but damn what a monotone voice during interviews!If you want to get a better idea of what Belichick is really like - those press conferences definitely do not count - listen to WEEI when he is on with them on Mondays. Better yet, read any or all of these three books: The Education of a Coach by David Halberstam; Patriot Reign by Michael Holley; and The Blueprint by Christopher Price. Halberstam was a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist most known for his coverage of Viet Nam and the civil rights movement; Holley worked for the Boston Globe and is now on WEEI - but at the time he started righting the book he had the same preconceptions abou Belichick many others did; and Chris Price also works for 'EEI - and you'll find comments and links by him right here on this forum. I know you're probably thinking they're all biased fluff, but trust me - they're very interesting books, even for people who are not Pats fans.
Neglected to mention I have been flipping back and forth b/n WEEI and 98.5 Sports Hub. Hard to tell which is better. Didnt get in early enough in the week to hear the presser with Belichick though.If you want to get a better idea of what Belichick is really like - those press conferences definitely do not count - listen to WEEI when he is on with them on Mondays.
A struggling running game didn't help. New England rushed for 83 yards after being limited to 73 in a 25-24 season-opening win over Buffalo on Sept. 14.
Against the Falcons, the Patriots may want to be more aggressive with their ground game. Atlanta surrendered 144 yards rushing to Carolina in a 28-20 win last Sunday and has a big hole to fill on the defensive line.
Rookie Peria Jerry, a first-round pick who was starting at tackle, suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Panthers. Thomas Johnson had not played in the NFL since 2006 until making the Falcons' roster, but he will move into a starting spot.
Atlanta also can move defensive end Chauncey Davis inside to give it the sort of quickness Jerry provided in passing situations.
"Anytime you lose somebody to an injury, it's very tough," Davis said. "But we just have to deal with it and keep moving on. Some other guys are going to have to step up and play a big part in our defense."
Jerry's loss hurts what already had been a defensive front lacking depth.
If the Pats choose to run the ball more often, going against their tendencies to pass most of the time, they could have some real effectiveness...as many Falcons fans are saying on my home site.The site also shows WhatIfSports giving the Pats a 56% chance of winning, with a probable score of Pats 24, Falcons 20. In their projected boxscore they have the Pats rushing for 144 yards.
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots need to find more offensive balance after QB Tom Brady attempted 100 passes through the first two games. They're averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, but the Falcons are vulnerable between the tackles and an effective ground game would set Brady up to test the Falcons' mediocre secondary. As impressive as former college QB Julian Edelman was last week, Brady needs WR Wes Welker back working the slot to help divert attention from Randy Moss. The Patriots' slow start can't be blamed on the defense, which is allowing just 265 yards per game. However, the secondary faces its biggest challenge of the young season as the Falcons are doing an excellent job of utilizing TE Tony Gonzalez in the seam to help draw attention away from WR Roddy White. The game could hinge on whether Atlanta's ground game is able to provide good balance against the Patriots' stout 3-4 front. RB Michael Turner was held to 65 rushing yards in Week 1 by Miami.
--WR Harry Douglas had surgery last week to repair the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. DT Peria Jerry's surgery for his left knee injury has not been scheduled yet.
--FS Thomas DeCoud in two games has 16 tackles (seven solos), one pass defensed and one fumble recovery. He led the Falcons in tackles against Carolina.
--MLB Curtis Lofton leads the Falcons in tackles with 23 while added a forced fumble.
--DE John Abraham is very familiar with New England from six seasons with the New York Jets days. He has 10 career sacks against the Patriots, his highest total against any team.
--RB Michael Turner rushed for over 100 yards for the ninth time in 19 games with the Falcons last week against Carolina.
PREDICTION: Patriots 31-24
Tom Jackson said:Brady, Pats facing must-win game
Atlanta at New England: After losing to the New York Jets, the Patriots face an unusually important game in Week 3. The Falcons are a team on a roll with one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL. QB Matt Ryan can spread the ball to several guys, all of whom have the ability to make defenses pay.
The key question is how effective QB Tom Brady will be at moving the ball, scoring touchdowns and keeping the ball away from Atlanta. Against the Jets, Brady was constantly pressured and completed only 49 percent of his passes. However, Atlanta does not have a strong pass rush. If Brady is comfortable, it could be a long day for the Falcons.
The regular season is played in quarters. Four groups of four games. Heading into Week 3, this now becomes a defining game. The Falcons have a chance to get off to a great start at 3-0. The Patriots have a chance to get back on track after two lackluster performances. For one team, the tone will be set, I believe, for the rest of the season.
Football Outsiders said:Last year, the Falcons' running game was best when running behind left tackle, where they ranked sixth in adjusted line yards. However, these also are the runs the Patriots are best at stopping. Last season, the Patriots ranked second in ALY against runs behind left tackle even though they were just 13th overall. So far this season, the Patriots are third in ALY against runs behind left tackle but 25th overall.
Falcons (+4) over PATRIOTS
By Week 12, maybe you roll with the 2009 Pats against an NFC contender at home. In Week 3? No way. And since we settled that, allow me two thoughts on rookie Julian Edelman. First, it took only 1½ quarters against the Jets before I was surfing patriots.com looking for his jersey. No dice. When I tweeted about this, a few followers reminded me that I could just buy an old Bledsoe jersey on eBay, remove his name and add Edelman. Obviously, that's ridiculous, but it did make me realize something crazy: Brady's main target against the Jets was someone wearing Bledsoe's number. If you had told me this would happen back in 2001, this would have happened.
Second, "Julian Edelman" might be the least likely name of a football player this decade. He sounds like he should be an acoustic singer, or an indie director, or a dentist, or the son of a famous rock star, or a Beverly Hills doctor who does breast implants, or someone that Carrie Bradshaw would have dated, or a renowned designer, or someone that James Spader would play in a weird early-'90s sex movie, or someone who edited Chris Connelly at Rolling Stone in the mid-'80s ... I mean, where would "NFL receiver" rank on your top 10,000 vocations for someone named "Julian Edelman"? For me, it's about No. 7,893. I can't get over it.
Falcons Keys For Success
1. Keep feeding Tony Gonzalez. Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons victories and has been a force in the passing game. While he's moving about, working inside, wide receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have done well outside. Against the Panthers, Gonzalez cleared out some room for running back Jason Snelling to slip out of the backfield and into a combination route.
2. Power up the running game. Falcons running back Michael Turner needed 28 carries to get 105 yards last week. After leading the league in carries last season with 376, the Falcons don't appear to be watching his workload. He has 50 carries for 170 yards (3.4 per carry) and one touchdown. He will be the best back New England has faced this season and will be key to playing keep-away from New England quarterback Tom Brady.
3. Turn up the heat on Brady. The Falcons are taking more risks on defense. They have five sacks and have caused five turnovers. They only caused 16 turnovers on defense all of last season. When defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann were not getting to Jake Delhomme, the Falcons dialed up a couple of safety blitzes and sent speedy linebacker Stephen Nicholas to get him off his mark.
Patriots Keys For Success
1. Handle Falcons DE John Abraham. Patriots left tackle Matt Light has had a decorated career, landing on the 50th Anniversary Team. But he struggled against Bills pass-rusher Aaron Schobel and in the face of all the Jets' pressure. Can he deal with Abraham, who opened with a statement by abusing Dolphins high-profile youngster Jake Long? Light must control Abraham for the offense's sake.
2. Make life easy for Brady. Brady has spent most of his return from a knee injury under duress and looking hurried. He has to find a rhythm. His improvement is on him, but others must help. If Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor get going, Brady's (62 of 100 for 604 yards) life gets much easier against a shoddy Falcons secondary.
3. Create big plays on defense. No, the unit hasn't been overwhelmed without injured star Jerod Mayo and recently traded end Richard Seymour. It has allowed an average of 20 points over two games. But aside from an early forced fumble vs. New York, there haven't been game-changing plays. With the offense scuffling, they'll need some. Who will emerge?
The Bottom Line
There are plenty of reasons to doubt the Patriots, what with Brady's newfound woes and on the heels of a division loss. And there are even more reasons to believe the Falcons are amped for greatness, led by their decorated quarterback. Reality arrives Sunday. New England isn't as bad as it has showed, and Atlanta isn't as good. This time, the Patriots bring the pressure and hurry Ryan, while its offensive line protects Brady. The Pats stay committed to the run and finally grind it out, allowing Brady to regain his comfort level and slowly begin to show signs of returning to form.
Scoring prediction: Falcons 17 - Patriots 27
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots. Matt Ryan looks the part of the next great quarterback, a role Tom Brady already portrays. This is a chance for Ryan to have his first big moment, outdueling Brady and the Pats on their turf. Unfortunately, the hosts are coming off a rare loss, and typically come out their best the next week.
The Falcons will be able to move the ball, either with Michael Turner on the ground or Ryan throwing to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. The Patriots should be up to the task to keep up -- if they go back to basics by pounding the ball at Atlanta's undersized front to limit Brady's dropbacks. Bill Belichick will make the right adjustments with the defense and running game to edge the Falcons.
Patriots 27, Falcons 24.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is done. Finished. He should just retire. Well, that's what the public and oddsmakers seem to think based on this spread. New England would have been a 7-point favorite at the very least in this game before its loss to the Jets.
But Brady was awful against the Jets, right? Sure he was, but he was playing one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Falcons really pale in comparison. They cannot stop the run and they obviously don't have a guy like Darrelle Revis who can take Randy Moss out of the game.
The Patriots will be able to run more on the Falcons, setting up Brady in short-yardage situations. Moss will be open downfield, while Wes Welker should be back in the lineup. I don't think Atlanta will have much success containing New England's offense.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: The big problem with the Patriots is not Tom Brady's knee; it's a defense that is down two of its best players going into the year (Jerod Mayo and Richard Seymour). New England has been mediocre against the run and downright brutal versus the pass, which doesn't bode well in this game.
The Falcons have a top-notch scoring attack. Matt Ryan is not showing any signs of a sophomore slump, and is actually better than he was as a rookie. Having Tony Gonzalez as a target over the middle helps a lot. And of course the running game is still capable of moving the chains.
RECAP: I don't think I've ever not placed a ton of units on Tom Brady after a loss. Despite the knee injury, Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and I expect him and the rest of the team to come out fired up after a loss to a divisional rival. This is a statement game for New England.
The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
The media is saying the Patriots are done. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are always at their best with their backs against the wall.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
It's been about equal action all week. Slight edge towards New England now.
Percentage of money on New England: 63% (30,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 11-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
Patriots are 22-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Patriots are 41-33 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Tom Brady is 100-29 as a starter (76-51 ATS).
Tom Brady is 18-7 ATS off a loss.
Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
Opening Total: 46
Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 24
Patriots -4.5 (3 Units)
Over 47 (2 Units)
Hey Pats fans,
Falcons fan Kev here. I read this entire thread while ignoring my 4 kids before betime.....ha ha. Great info in here, from both sides.
Interesting stat jcwfalcon posted on the Pats being 15-0 in last 15 meetings against NFC teams. Domination. I actually think there may be a shift in the quality of the conferences soon. Seems the AFC had more quality teams than the NFC for years now, but I envision a shift happening starting with this year.
Looking forward to a great game Sunday. Should be interesting for me this weekend with my wife being a Pats fan. Talk about a house divided. The kids won't know who to root for as we both stare them down waiting for their answers!
On a non-football note....we're most-likely moving to Boston soon. We live in Oregon now, but I lost my job in June and unemployment is hell out here. My company offered me a job in Houston but no way we were moving there. We're originally from the east...me from NY and my wife from NJ and MA. My company is now talking about a job for me in Boston, and we both LOVE Boston, so I think we're gonna jump on that as an opportunity to come home to the east coast. We're looking at neighborhoods in the Worcester/Shrewsbury kinda area right now for a start. Seems like there are very good schools there. Looking forward to getting back home to the east, and of course, a great game on Sunday.
Go Falcons!