Week Three, Falcons at Patriots

[jcwfalcon]

Havent checked out you guys schedule, but this is the start of a gauntlet for the Falcons. 4 of the next 5 on the road and all against potential playoff teams.

@ Patriots (1-1)
BYE
@ 49ers (2-0)
vs Chicago (1-1) SNF
@ Cowboys (1-1)
@ Saints (2-0) MNF

 

[Horace's Ivories]

The new england patriots - 38
birds - 13

 

[jmt57]

Did have to make a comment that doesnt relate to the thread...but as a Falcons fan I dont listen to much of the Bill Belichick media sessions/interviews (until this week of course)...but I think I can say, without a doubt, that he is the best coach that doesnt get excited about football in the history of the game.

Obviously Bill Belichick will never be confused with **** Vitale.

It's a combination of things. Part of it is obviously his personality. Part of it is being leery of the media going back to his days in Cleveland. And a big part of it is he simply sees his job to try to win football games; he doesn't see the other part (smile for the camera, laugh and joke with reporters) as being in his job description, or helping him achieve that goal of winning next Sunday.

The media obviously doesn't like that because with no sound bites to headline a column there job is tougher. That leads to negative descriptions about Belichick, who then becomes more guarded, and the vicious circle continues.

On the other hand many people have a completely different description of Belichick that have been able to meet with him in informal sessions. Ask him a genuine football question and he'll probably go on for fifteen minutes discussing the pros and cons of the play. Ask him what he thinks about the latest poll on espn and you'll likely never get another opportunity to ask him a question.

If you want to get a better idea of what Belichick is really like - those press conferences definitely do not count - listen to WEEI when he is on with them on Mondays. Better yet, read any or all of these three books: The Education of a Coach by David Halberstam; Patriot Reign by Michael Holley; and The Blueprint by Christopher Price. Halberstam was a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist most known for his coverage of Viet Nam and the civil rights movement; Holley worked for the Boston Globe and is now on WEEI - but at the time he started righting the book he had the same preconceptions abou Belichick many others did; and Chris Price also works for 'EEI - and you'll find comments and links by him right here on this forum. I know you're probably thinking they're all biased fluff, but trust me - they're very interesting books, even for people who are not Pats fans.

 

[jcwfalcon]

If the Falcons win this week, how long with the dramatic drop in newborns being named "Ryan" in the New England area last?

*rimshot*

...but their might be a degree of truth to it...but only probably for a month until you guys are back on top.

 

[jcwfalcon]

If you want to get a better idea of what Belichick is really like - those press conferences definitely do not count - listen to WEEI when he is on with them on Mondays. Better yet, read any or all of these three books: The Education of a Coach by David Halberstam; Patriot Reign by Michael Holley; and The Blueprint by Christopher Price. Halberstam was a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist most known for his coverage of Viet Nam and the civil rights movement; Holley worked for the Boston Globe and is now on WEEI - but at the time he started righting the book he had the same preconceptions abou Belichick many others did; and Chris Price also works for 'EEI - and you'll find comments and links by him right here on this forum. I know you're probably thinking they're all biased fluff, but trust me - they're very interesting books, even for people who are not Pats fans.

Great info! Thanks! Yeah, I had heard he is a great guy to talk to when the mike isnt in his face...but damn what a monotone voice during interviews!

I might need to check out those books. Actually, I almost checked out one of them last week. I was choosing two books (I do audio books on my iPod, im like a kid, read to me, I dont want to have to read it myself) and I actually almost got a Belichick book but went with the new Dan Brown book (12 hours) and The Count of Monte Cristo (48 freaking hours long). I have been so into football and stupid banter I havent started either...but after those I may check out one of those you mentioned. If you had to pick one, which would it be? (only one is probably on audio anyway...but you never know)

And Vitale is a ****-e. Theres entertaining/excited, then theres you need medication dude.

 

[jcwfalcon]

If you want to get a better idea of what Belichick is really like - those press conferences definitely do not count - listen to WEEI when he is on with them on Mondays.

Neglected to mention I have been flipping back and forth b/n WEEI and 98.5 Sports Hub. Hard to tell which is better. Didnt get in early enough in the week to hear the presser with Belichick though.

 

[jmt57]

Having to pick only one of those books, that's a tough call. I guess it would be The Education of a Coach. It's more focused specifically on Belichick, and frankly, Halberstam is a better writer. The other look at the team and seasons as much as they do at Belichick.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

BIG game down here. Literally everybody will be watching it. I've seen flyers around town advertising the game at Augusta State, USC-Aiken, etc. I've never seen my city get so pumped up for a NFL game since the Super Bowl back in 1998. There was an entire section on the Pats in the Chronicle this morning. I never get to read about the Pats, except online. So i'll enjoy it while it lasts. But the Pats better win on Sunday.
Pats-24
Dirty Birds-14

 

[jmt57]

FoxSports Preview, Falcons at Patriots

FoxSports Preview, Falcons at Patriots

A struggling running game didn't help. New England rushed for 83 yards after being limited to 73 in a 25-24 season-opening win over Buffalo on Sept. 14.

Against the Falcons, the Patriots may want to be more aggressive with their ground game. Atlanta surrendered 144 yards rushing to Carolina in a 28-20 win last Sunday and has a big hole to fill on the defensive line.

Rookie Peria Jerry, a first-round pick who was starting at tackle, suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Panthers. Thomas Johnson had not played in the NFL since 2006 until making the Falcons' roster, but he will move into a starting spot.

Atlanta also can move defensive end Chauncey Davis inside to give it the sort of quickness Jerry provided in passing situations.

"Anytime you lose somebody to an injury, it's very tough," Davis said. "But we just have to deal with it and keep moving on. Some other guys are going to have to step up and play a big part in our defense."
Jerry's loss hurts what already had been a defensive front lacking depth.

The site also shows WhatIfSports giving the Pats a 56% chance of winning, with a probable score of Pats 24, Falcons 20. In their projected boxscore they have the Pats rushing for 144 yards.

 

[jcwfalcon]

Re: FoxSports Preview, Falcons at Patriots

The site also shows WhatIfSports giving the Pats a 56% chance of winning, with a probable score of Pats 24, Falcons 20. In their projected boxscore they have the Pats rushing for 144 yards.

If the Pats choose to run the ball more often, going against their tendencies to pass most of the time, they could have some real effectiveness...as many Falcons fans are saying on my home site.

A few of things to consider:
#1- The Falcons, on paper, shouldnt be able to stop the run OR the pass. Thank heavens the first two games havent been played on paper. Many of us are happy, but still have that one brow raised waiting for the other shoe to drop. In the preseason they were PATHETIC.

#2- The Falcons have faced the Dolphins and Panties- two teams who try to establish the run more than most (Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart). I am not certain if its that we cant stop the run or that we have just faced rushing teams.

#3 The Falcons bend but dont break style wont hold any team under 300 yards of offense this season. Even last year it was that way. They are going to give up the yards. The big question for us is can we continue to make teams turn the ball over once they cross the 50, or kick field goals. The strength of this team on defense hasnt really been, IMO, a bunch of talented players, as much as it has been the schemes have been solid. Once the field gets shorter, the schemes have greater effectiveness.

Keep this defense guessing with a balanced attack including short/deep passes, screens, and running the football up the gut, and you could probably have your way...especially until you get within 30 yards of the endzone. Its difficult to scheme appropriately when you have no idea whats coming.

 

[jmt57]

CBS Sports Preview, Falcons at Patriots

CBS Sports Preview, Falcons at Patriots

KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots need to find more offensive balance after QB Tom Brady attempted 100 passes through the first two games. They're averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, but the Falcons are vulnerable between the tackles and an effective ground game would set Brady up to test the Falcons' mediocre secondary. As impressive as former college QB Julian Edelman was last week, Brady needs WR Wes Welker back working the slot to help divert attention from Randy Moss. The Patriots' slow start can't be blamed on the defense, which is allowing just 265 yards per game. However, the secondary faces its biggest challenge of the young season as the Falcons are doing an excellent job of utilizing TE Tony Gonzalez in the seam to help draw attention away from WR Roddy White. The game could hinge on whether Atlanta's ground game is able to provide good balance against the Patriots' stout 3-4 front. RB Michael Turner was held to 65 rushing yards in Week 1 by Miami.

--WR Harry Douglas had surgery last week to repair the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. DT Peria Jerry's surgery for his left knee injury has not been scheduled yet.

--FS Thomas DeCoud in two games has 16 tackles (seven solos), one pass defensed and one fumble recovery. He led the Falcons in tackles against Carolina.

--MLB Curtis Lofton leads the Falcons in tackles with 23 while added a forced fumble.

--DE John Abraham is very familiar with New England from six seasons with the New York Jets days. He has 10 career sacks against the Patriots, his highest total against any team.

--RB Michael Turner rushed for over 100 yards for the ninth time in 19 games with the Falcons last week against Carolina.

PREDICTION: Patriots 31-24

 

[jmt57]

CBS: 4 of 6 pick the Falcons (+3.5)

CBS Expert Picks

Picking against the spread (Pats -3.5), Harmon Forecast and Greg Urbano went with the Pats to cover. Pete Prisco, Clark Judge, Peter Madden and Dave Richard went with the Falcons plus the points.

Prisco is predicting Atlanta to win 33-32. The Falcons are 2-0, but this is a real test to see if they are an elite team. The Falcons can score on offense, and they will likely have to put up a lot here. New England's offense will get it going. The Atlanta defense struggles against the pass, so Randy Moss is a mismatch. Look for a high-scoring, passes-in-the-air game. It will be tight -- and fun.

Harmon is forecasting a 28-20 New England victory. The Panthers, much like the Dolphins in Week One, dared the Falcons' second-year quarterback Matt Ryan to beat them through the air and he did. The Patriots could try the same strategy this week. New England held the Jets to only one touchdown drive and came up with enough red-zone stops to give the Patriots' offense a chance. Patriots QB Tom Brady wasn't comfortable against the Jets' blitz packages and he failed to score a touchdown. Expect Bill Belichick to make some adjustments on offense to make defenses think twice about sending the house.

 

[jmt57]

ESPN picks Patriots over Falcons

ESPN's Sunday Countdown crew is in favor of the Pats 3-1; Tom Jackson(!), Cris Carter and Keyshawn Johnson all pick the Pats to win, while Mike Ditka picked the Falcons. On a side note all four went with the Jets over the Titans.

Brady, Pats facing must-win game

Atlanta at New England: After losing to the New York Jets, the Patriots face an unusually important game in Week 3. The Falcons are a team on a roll with one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL. QB Matt Ryan can spread the ball to several guys, all of whom have the ability to make defenses pay.

The key question is how effective QB Tom Brady will be at moving the ball, scoring touchdowns and keeping the ball away from Atlanta. Against the Jets, Brady was constantly pressured and completed only 49 percent of his passes. However, Atlanta does not have a strong pass rush. If Brady is comfortable, it could be a long day for the Falcons.

The regular season is played in quarters. Four groups of four games. Heading into Week 3, this now becomes a defining game. The Falcons have a chance to get off to a great start at 3-0. The Patriots have a chance to get back on track after two lackluster performances. For one team, the tone will be set, I believe, for the rest of the season.

Last year, the Falcons' running game was best when running behind left tackle, where they ranked sixth in adjusted line yards. However, these also are the runs the Patriots are best at stopping. Last season, the Patriots ranked second in ALY against runs behind left tackle even though they were just 13th overall. So far this season, the Patriots are third in ALY against runs behind left tackle but 25th overall.

ESPN's AccuScore lists the Pats with a 66% chance of winning, and a projected score of Pats 28, Falcons 23.

As for the rest of ESPN's "Expert Picks", only Eric Allen and Mike Golic went with Atlanta. Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, Seth Wickersham, their computer-sim Accuscore, and their fan vote all went with the Pats over the Falcons. Also, it was a clean sweep as the entire crew above picked the Chargers to beat the Dolphins.


Bill Simmons is taking the Falcons and the points:

Falcons (+4) over PATRIOTS
By Week 12, maybe you roll with the 2009 Pats against an NFC contender at home. In Week 3? No way. And since we settled that, allow me two thoughts on rookie Julian Edelman. First, it took only 1½ quarters against the Jets before I was surfing patriots.com looking for his jersey. No dice. When I tweeted about this, a few followers reminded me that I could just buy an old Bledsoe jersey on eBay, remove his name and add Edelman. Obviously, that's ridiculous, but it did make me realize something crazy: Brady's main target against the Jets was someone wearing Bledsoe's number. If you had told me this would happen back in 2001, this would have happened.

Second, "Julian Edelman" might be the least likely name of a football player this decade. He sounds like he should be an acoustic singer, or an indie director, or a dentist, or the son of a famous rock star, or a Beverly Hills doctor who does breast implants, or someone that Carrie Bradshaw would have dated, or a renowned designer, or someone that James Spader would play in a weird early-'90s sex movie, or someone who edited Chris Connelly at Rolling Stone in the mid-'80s ... I mean, where would "NFL receiver" rank on your top 10,000 vocations for someone named "Julian Edelman"? For me, it's about No. 7,893. I can't get over it.

 

[jmt57]

Sporting News: Pats 27, Falcons 17

The Sporting News utilizes a beat writer from each team - in this case the Boston Herald's Ian Rapoport and Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Orlando Ledbetter - to preview Sunday's game. I wonder if Rapoport has been reading patsfans.com; he mentions that "one loss can send a fan base toward an epic meltdown, and that was the case for Pats fans after Sunday's loss to the Jets."

Falcons Keys For Success

1. Keep feeding Tony Gonzalez. Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons victories and has been a force in the passing game. While he's moving about, working inside, wide receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have done well outside. Against the Panthers, Gonzalez cleared out some room for running back Jason Snelling to slip out of the backfield and into a combination route.
2. Power up the running game. Falcons running back Michael Turner needed 28 carries to get 105 yards last week. After leading the league in carries last season with 376, the Falcons don't appear to be watching his workload. He has 50 carries for 170 yards (3.4 per carry) and one touchdown. He will be the best back New England has faced this season and will be key to playing keep-away from New England quarterback Tom Brady.
3. Turn up the heat on Brady. The Falcons are taking more risks on defense. They have five sacks and have caused five turnovers. They only caused 16 turnovers on defense all of last season. When defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann were not getting to Jake Delhomme, the Falcons dialed up a couple of safety blitzes and sent speedy linebacker Stephen Nicholas to get him off his mark.


Patriots Keys For Success

1. Handle Falcons DE John Abraham. Patriots left tackle Matt Light has had a decorated career, landing on the 50th Anniversary Team. But he struggled against Bills pass-rusher Aaron Schobel and in the face of all the Jets' pressure. Can he deal with Abraham, who opened with a statement by abusing Dolphins high-profile youngster Jake Long? Light must control Abraham for the offense's sake.
2. Make life easy for Brady. Brady has spent most of his return from a knee injury under duress and looking hurried. He has to find a rhythm. His improvement is on him, but others must help. If Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor get going, Brady's (62 of 100 for 604 yards) life gets much easier against a shoddy Falcons secondary.
3. Create big plays on defense. No, the unit hasn't been overwhelmed without injured star Jerod Mayo and recently traded end Richard Seymour. It has allowed an average of 20 points over two games. But aside from an early forced fumble vs. New York, there haven't been game-changing plays. With the offense scuffling, they'll need some. Who will emerge?

The Bottom Line

There are plenty of reasons to doubt the Patriots, what with Brady's newfound woes and on the heels of a division loss. And there are even more reasons to believe the Falcons are amped for greatness, led by their decorated quarterback. Reality arrives Sunday. New England isn't as bad as it has showed, and Atlanta isn't as good. This time, the Patriots bring the pressure and hurry Ryan, while its offensive line protects Brady. The Pats stay committed to the run and finally grind it out, allowing Brady to regain his comfort level and slowly begin to show signs of returning to form.

Scoring prediction: Falcons 17 - Patriots 27

Vinnie Iyer has the Pats winning by three.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots. Matt Ryan looks the part of the next great quarterback, a role Tom Brady already portrays. This is a chance for Ryan to have his first big moment, outdueling Brady and the Pats on their turf. Unfortunately, the hosts are coming off a rare loss, and typically come out their best the next week.

The Falcons will be able to move the ball, either with Michael Turner on the ground or Ryan throwing to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. The Patriots should be up to the task to keep up -- if they go back to basics by pounding the ball at Atlanta's undersized front to limit Brady's dropbacks. Bill Belichick will make the right adjustments with the defense and running game to edge the Falcons.

Patriots 27, Falcons 24.

All seven members of The Sporting News staff picked the Patriots to win: Iyer, Steve Greenberg (34-24), Clifton Brown (24-23), Albert Breer (31-28), Real Scouts (27-17), Russ Lande (24-22) and Dennis Dillon (29-26). All seven have the Saints beating the Bills and the Chargers beating the Dolphins, and five out of seven have Tennessee beating the Jets.

 

[kevykev21]

Hey Pats fans,
Falcons fan Kev here. I read this entire thread while ignoring my 4 kids before betime.....ha ha. Great info in here, from both sides.

Interesting stat jcwfalcon posted on the Pats being 15-0 in last 15 meetings against NFC teams. Domination. I actually think there may be a shift in the quality of the conferences soon. Seems the AFC had more quality teams than the NFC for years now, but I envision a shift happening starting with this year.

Looking forward to a great game Sunday. Should be interesting for me this weekend with my wife being a Pats fan. Talk about a house divided. The kids won't know who to root for as we both stare them down waiting for their answers!

On a non-football note....we're most-likely moving to Boston soon. We live in Oregon now, but I lost my job in June and unemployment is hell out here. My company offered me a job in Houston but no way we were moving there. We're originally from the east...me from NY and my wife from NJ and MA. My company is now talking about a job for me in Boston, and we both LOVE Boston, so I think we're gonna jump on that as an opportunity to come home to the east coast. We're looking at neighborhoods in the Worcester/Shrewsbury kinda area right now for a start. Seems like there are very good schools there. Looking forward to getting back home to the east, and of course, a great game on Sunday.

Go Falcons!

 

[jmt57]

Walter Football: Pats will win and cover the spread

Walter Football advises to put your money on the Pats - and a high scoring game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is done. Finished. He should just retire. Well, that's what the public and oddsmakers seem to think based on this spread. New England would have been a 7-point favorite at the very least in this game before its loss to the Jets.

But Brady was awful against the Jets, right? Sure he was, but he was playing one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Falcons really pale in comparison. They cannot stop the run and they obviously don't have a guy like Darrelle Revis who can take Randy Moss out of the game.

The Patriots will be able to run more on the Falcons, setting up Brady in short-yardage situations. Moss will be open downfield, while Wes Welker should be back in the lineup. I don't think Atlanta will have much success containing New England's offense.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The big problem with the Patriots is not Tom Brady's knee; it's a defense that is down two of its best players going into the year (Jerod Mayo and Richard Seymour). New England has been mediocre against the run and downright brutal versus the pass, which doesn't bode well in this game.

The Falcons have a top-notch scoring attack. Matt Ryan is not showing any signs of a sophomore slump, and is actually better than he was as a rookie. Having Tony Gonzalez as a target over the middle helps a lot. And of course the running game is still capable of moving the chains.

RECAP: I don't think I've ever not placed a ton of units on Tom Brady after a loss. Despite the knee injury, Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and I expect him and the rest of the team to come out fired up after a loss to a divisional rival. This is a statement game for New England.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
The media is saying the Patriots are done. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are always at their best with their backs against the wall.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
It's been about equal action all week. Slight edge towards New England now.
Percentage of money on New England: 63% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 11-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
Patriots are 22-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Patriots are 41-33 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Tom Brady is 100-29 as a starter (76-51 ATS).
Tom Brady is 18-7 ATS off a loss.
Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
Opening Total: 46

Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 24
Patriots -4.5 (3 Units)
Over 47 (2 Units)

 

[jmt57]

Peter King: Falcons 24, Patriots 16

64% of the readers at Sports Illustrated are picking the Pats, but Peter King is going with the Falcons in this game.


Talking to Kerry Rhodes after the Jets' beatdown of the Pats, I made this point: New York threw seven, five and six rushers at Brady on the last three Patriots' snaps of the game, and Brady never knew where the rush was coming from. "And on the plays we only rushed three or four, he didn't know if we had more coming, because different guys were coming from different spots all game,'' he said. Now, I think Patriots Nation has to realize the sky is not falling based on eight C-minus quarters so far. But I also think Atlanta makes enough plays with an efficient quarterback (Matt Ryan has studied all aspects of Brady's game, by the way) to outplay Brady in Foxboro.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 24, New England Patriots 16

 

[jmt57]

Hey Pats fans,
Falcons fan Kev here. I read this entire thread while ignoring my 4 kids before betime.....ha ha. Great info in here, from both sides.

Interesting stat jcwfalcon posted on the Pats being 15-0 in last 15 meetings against NFC teams. Domination. I actually think there may be a shift in the quality of the conferences soon. Seems the AFC had more quality teams than the NFC for years now, but I envision a shift happening starting with this year.

Looking forward to a great game Sunday. Should be interesting for me this weekend with my wife being a Pats fan. Talk about a house divided. The kids won't know who to root for as we both stare them down waiting for their answers!

On a non-football note....we're most-likely moving to Boston soon. We live in Oregon now, but I lost my job in June and unemployment is hell out here. My company offered me a job in Houston but no way we were moving there. We're originally from the east...me from NY and my wife from NJ and MA. My company is now talking about a job for me in Boston, and we both LOVE Boston, so I think we're gonna jump on that as an opportunity to come home to the east coast. We're looking at neighborhoods in the Worcester/Shrewsbury kinda area right now for a start. Seems like there are very good schools there. Looking forward to getting back home to the east, and of course, a great game on Sunday.

Go Falcons!

Welcome to the board!

Yup, the gap between the NFC and AFC has closed. The NFC East has been good for a while and the NFC South is usually very good too - but rarely gets noticed due to none of those teams being in the biggest metroploitan areas, or having several years of success.

Where exactly is your job going to be? Reason I ask is that Worcester or Shrewsbury to Boston is a lot longer of a commute than you're going to want to make every day.

 

[Patspsycho]

I see us playing 4-3 cover 3 or 4, more likely 4 with the occasional FS motion down. I believe we will dare Atlanta to run.

Gonzalez has been handled well by the Patriots in his career, only getting one touchdown, although he has gotten around 450 yards vs. Pats..

Weather is calling for rain- so I hope that will be an incentive to break out the running game big time. I think that is what we need to do more than anything, even more than seeing Brady snap back to normal. Getting our running game going is the best deterrent to so much energy being focused in collapsing the pocket or getting to Brady.

I would hope we start with that and then worry about abusing their secondaries later on.

 

[AJ33ALT]

like slope and jcwfalcon said it's going to come down to what the Patriots can do with Atlanta D , and when Abe is lined up you better look for Beirmann the dude is a seriously high motor DE , he is every where ,if Abe and Beirmann can T-off on Brady ,uh O, then the game very well would turn into Atlanta favor .