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Troy Brown's surprise cut pick: Laurence Maroney


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Yes. You are pointing to the still alive, old smokers. I've suscribed to the Mel Kiper guides for 20 years now ( yes I'm an old timer, 43. ) I used to subscribe to Joel Buschbaum's ( close Belichick friend ), for years, before he died. I can remember when you used to order the Kiper guides by phone and Mel would answer the phone at his house and take your order. And of course I have every ProFootball Weekly and Patriots football weekly, just to name a few.

I have been through the Pro Football Focus data, and it is my opinion, that as a whole, it is the best I have ever seen.

From the PFF site itself:

My firm belief is that we are between 98-100% accurate in terms of statistics and Player Participation 80-90% accurate in terms of grading.

ProFootballFocus.com - About

Even the site itself claims a 10%-20% error rate in grading. The reality is that PFF is fine for data, although it needs to be double checked whenever possible, but it's absolutely horrible when it comes to formula/grading.
 
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From the PFF site itself:



ProFootballFocus.com - About

Even the site itself claims a 10%-20% error rate in grading. The reality is that PFF is fine for data, although it needs to be double checked whenever possible, but it's absolutely horrible when it comes to formula/grading.

Agreed. Player Participation is about the only thing that PFF is good for, since it's pure observation without interpretation (which is where they really run off a cliff).
 
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Agreed. Player Participation is about the only thing that PFF is good for, since it's pure observation without interpretation (which is where they really run off a cliff).

The thing that gets me is that it's not tough to figure it out.

Ranking top QBs, which list makes more sense?

Rivers
Rogers
Favre
Brees
Roethlisberger
Manning
Schaub
Flacco
Garrard
Brady

ProFootballFocus.com - By Position

or

Brady
P. Manning
Rivers
Brees
Favre
Schaub
Romo
Roethlisberger
Rogers
E. Manning

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2009

For crying out loud, once you see Flacco and Garrard in your top 10 from last year, you have to know that your formulas need work.
 
Hahaha yup, that's pretty much the definition of "results to send you back to the drawing board".

Reminds me of when someone on SoSH found a statistical model that ranked Trot Nixon as one of the best outfielders in the majors. The overwhelming response was that it must be a pretty terrible model. Sometimes, I think people fail to realize that there is such a thing as bad modeling and good modeling, on both sides of the whole statistics debate. The "statistics are infallible" crowd sweeps it under the rug, while the "numbers lie!' crowd points to the bad ones almost exclusively.

I'm sure a lot of you have built statistical models before, but for those that haven't, there is an explanatory requirement involved. The principle of parsimony dictates that, in addition to increased predictive power, it's also desirable to use as few input variables as you can, creating a tradeoff that you have to balance for. This means that, for each input that you add into the model, you have to give a clear justification, both statistically and logically, for why this variable should be included. This enables you to create simpler and more stable models that have an actual basis in causal relationships between variables, rather than tracing the idiosyncrasies of past data in a way that all but guarantees that they'll have no predictive power against new (future) data.

Look, I could come up with a statistical model that says that JaMarcus Russell is a better quarterback than Tom Brady if I wanted to. It would be a terrible model, because I would have to purposefully defy common sense to build it, but it could be done. But building that model doesn't make its results true, and it doesn't invalidate the awesome work that good statisticians do either.
 
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Is this thread a joke? The chances of Maroney being cut are exactly, ZERO. Troy Brown obviously knows BB's personality and the way he goes about his business, but to think Belichick would cut our most productive RB, who still has major potential upside is absurd.

1. He is our best ball carrier, hands down.

2. He is young (what, 23 or something absurd?) and still learning the nuances of being an NFL RB. He could still get a lot better.

3. He is playing for his next contract.

4. By all accounts he has a great attitude, gets along with BB, and is more than willing to take to coaching and eager to learn.

Have Belichick and the coaches been highly frustrated by Maroney on a fairly regular basis? Possibly. Would Belichick give up on a guy just because he's developed more slowly than desired, and even regressed a bit at times? In Maroney's case, not a snowball's chance in hell.
 
Hahaha yup, that's pretty much the definition of "results to send you back to the drawing board".

Reminds me of when someone on SoSH found a statistical model that ranked Trot Nixon as one of the best outfielders in the majors. The overwhelming response was that it must be a pretty terrible model. Sometimes, I think people fail to realize that there is such a thing as bad modeling and good modeling, on both sides of the whole statistics debate. The "statistics are infallible" crowd sweeps it under the rug, while the "numbers lie!' crowd points to the bad ones almost exclusively.

I'm sure a lot of you have built statistical models before, but for those that haven't, there is an explanatory requirement involved. The principle of parsimony dictates that, in addition to increased predictive power, it's also desirable to use as few input variables as you can, creating a tradeoff that you have to balance for. This means that, for each input that you add into the model, you have to give a clear justification, both statistically and logically, for why this variable should be included. This enables you to create simpler and more stable models that have an actual basis in causal relationships between variables, rather than tracing the idiosyncrasies of past data in a way that all but guarantees that they'll have no predictive power against new (future) data.

Look, I could come up with a statistical model that says that JaMarcus Russell is a better quarterback than Tom Brady if I wanted to. It would be a terrible model, because I would have to purposefully defy common sense to build it, but it could be done. But building that model doesn't make its results true, and it doesn't invalidate the awesome work that good statisticians do either.

Excellent explanation. I learned something new from this.
 
Re: Troy Brown: Maroney to be cut

Perhaps it was perfidious Pioli who proffered those picks

-phil (Patriots Homer of the Year)

Ironically, Charles is now Pioli's starting RB.


Sorry, I couldn't think of any alliterations.
 
Is this thread a joke?
2. He is young (what, 23 or something absurd?) and still learning the nuances of being an NFL RB. He could still get a lot better.

Nope, you are the joke.
 
For crying out loud, once you see Flacco and Garrard in your top 10 from last year, you have to know that your formulas need work.

Over Romo and Eli? I'm not so sure.
 
I'll also direct you to the scouts at Pro Football Focus, who grade Maroney as by far the worst RB on the Patriots ( yes that includes BJGE as well ).

The same Pro Football Focus who has players listed as playing games who have been on IR the whole season? That one?


That site is an absolute joke.
 
Comcast NE Sports Tonight @ 6:30 pm when asked to predict the surprises of this camp, Troy Brown said, on the upside Kevin Faulk looks better than he has in years. He is under 200 LBS and looks quicker and shiftier.

On the downside his surprise cut of camp pick is Laurence Maroney.

I wouldn't be that surprised.
 
Nope, you are the joke.

Let's hope your golf game is better than your posting ability. Seriously. You can't even put together a decent rebuttal to what JMarr said.
 
I don't like either one, but Eli was actually pretty damn good last year.

Romo wasn't so bad either. He and Eli were definitely much better than Flacco and Garrard, though. That's pretty much beyond reasonable dispute.
 
Let's hope your golf game is better than your posting ability. Seriously. You can't even put together a decent rebuttal to what JMarr said.

I'm pretty sure how you communicate on the internet does not correlate to how intelligent you are. Thanks for the cheapshot though.

O noez, i canznot post goodz on de internet, i must be stoopid.
 
Troy Brown is the man and personifies everything that was the Patriots during their three SB championships, but this answers why he isn't carrying a clipboard at TC and wearing a microphone instead.
 
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Pro Football Focus is the without question the best scouting service available to the public bar none.

I guess since there are only two or three real scouting services available to the public, I would put them in the top three. I mean PFF has Damien Woody as a top 5 tackle in the league. How could their information be wrong?

Seriously, PFF must have some serious Marketing and PR guys working overtime. I look at their rankings and think they are utter crap, but they have half the football fans out there thinking their rankings are the gold standard.
 
I'm pretty sure how you communicate on the internet does not correlate to how intelligent you are. Thanks for the cheapshot though.

O noez, i canznot post goodz on de internet, i must be stoopid.

You're calling that a cheapshot? What about the post he was referencing? Hypocrite, much?
 
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