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I'm not a fan of taking players limited to just being three techs high in the draft because they are so limited. I make an exception for Donald because a) he's just so explosive and b) I see some DE functionality for him.

I think Jernigan is stout enough to two cap situationally and could kick outside situationally. Donald has the best first step on the line in this draft and you're right he could play end situationally. While Donald has a speed advantage Jernigan has a power and core strength advantage along with height, weight and I suspect arm length. I actually think they're very close.

It's Tuitt who people are comparing to Seymour I disagree with. I think he's more Ty Warren.

I'll make you a deal. You revisit Jernigan with an open mind and I'll do the same for any prospect you want. Don't waste it on Donald I'm sold if he's there at 29.
 
I think Jernigan is stout enough to two cap situationally and could kick outside situationally. Donald has the best first step on the line in this draft and you're right he could play end situationally. While Donald has a speed advantage Jernigan has a power and core strength advantage along with height, weight and I suspect arm length. I actually think they're very close.

It's Tuitt who people are comparing to Seymour I disagree with. I think he's more Ty Warren.

I'll make you a deal. You revisit Jernigan with an open mind and I'll do the same for any prospect you want. Don't waste it on Donald I'm sold if he's there at 29.

I'm going to try to revisit the top 200 or so anyway, so no need for the deal. The thing about power and core strength though is that that's an asset that can be pretty much be found at any level of the draft. In the first round, I want explosion which tends to be in short supply later on. That's what I see in Donald but not Jernigan. If I want core strength, I'll just grab Shamar Stephen on day three ( really like Stephen's fit for the Pats).

But as you say, I will take another look.
 
I'm going to try to revisit the top 200 or so anyway, so no need for the deal. The thing about power and core strength though is that that's an asset that can be pretty much be found at any level of the draft. In the first round, I want explosion which tends to be in short supply later on. That's what I see in Donald but not Jernigan. If I want core strength, I'll just grab Shamar Stephen on day three ( really like Stephen's fit for the Pats).

But as you say, I will take another look.

Right but Jernigan has core strength and burst. Stephen is best case Anthony Pleasant. It's like saying Justin Tuck doesn't have the burst of Dwight Freeney. No he doesn't but his combination of speed coupled with power and core strength makes him equally if not more valuable.
 
Right but Jernigan has core strength and burst. Stephen is best case Anthony Pleasant. It's like saying Justin Tuck doesn't have the burst of Dwight Freeney. No he doesn't but his combination of speed coupled with power and core strength makes him equally if not more valuable.

8.5 sacks in three years, three of which came against Charleston Southern and Idaho. I'm sorry but I don't see that burst translating into production. There are plenty high on him so I'm happy to recognise that I might be wrong, but I didn't see it myself.
 
You know it's draft season when you take the dog for a walk and you are thinking about the draft. So, as I've just been talking about it, here's my tentative draft philosophy on Defensive Tackles.

1. If I'm drafting someone who is limited to a 3-tech role in the first round, he better be able to get to the QB on a consistent basis. Suh, Fairley and Sheldon Richardson are the obvious candidates. This year that means that I still like Aaron Donald in that range but is why I don't like Timmy Jernigan.

2. I don't just want a run plugger in the first round. NTs need to be a consistent disruptive force. They don't have to get lots of sacks, but they do need to do more than occupy double teams. Vince Wilfork, Dontari Poe, Star Lotulelei and maybe Louis Nix.

3. If I can't get a 3-tech who can threaten double digit sacks on the year then, for him to be a first rounder, he needs to offer me 5-tech RDE versatility too like JJ Watt, Muhammed Wilkerson, Ra'Shede Hageman and in my opinion, but not others, Stephon Tuitt.

4. If I can't get any of the above then I'm reluctant to take a day 2 DT because if they weren't explosive enough to make the day one cut, then they're unlikely to be explosive enough to be worth a day two pick and there is usually good DT value on day three. There are three possible exceptions to the rule this year: Tuitt (who I consider to be worth a first rounder), Justin Ellis who is disruptive enough to be more than just a run stopper) and Caraun Reid who I think has plenty of explosive upside*

* Caraun Reid is the perfect example of why I respect OTG as an evaluator so much. I've been high on Reid for over a year and Grid recently added Reid's scouting report to his Fanatical Yankee kingdom (can a Yankee that is fanatical actually have a kingdom?). Like me, Grid is a fan of Reid but he questioned Reid's ability to diagnose plays. I hadn't seen that previously so went back to the Reid videos and saw exactly what Grid was talking about. I've just been rewatching Marcus Martin too and I feel an about turn is about to happen there too (dancing bear much!).
 
You know it's draft season when you take the dog for a walk and you are thinking about the draft.

You Know It's FootBall Season when you approach a Red Light as the lead car in the far right lane of a 4 Lane Intersection and find yourself thinking ~ just for a millisecond before "Sanity" kicks back in, mind you!! ~ about whether you should roll up to the Line in a "43" Alignment or perhaps hang back as the Leo. True Story!! :eek:

And yes: It's always FootBall Season. :D
 
* Caraun Reid is the perfect example of why I respect OTG as an evaluator so much. I've been high on Reid for over a year and Grid recently added Reid's scouting report to his Fanatical Yankee kingdom (can a Yankee that is fanatical actually have a kingdom?). Like me, Grid is a fan of Reid but he questioned Reid's ability to diagnose plays. I hadn't seen that previously so went back to the Reid videos and saw exactly what Grid was talking about. I've just been rewatching Marcus Martin too and I feel an about turn is about to happen there too (dancing bear much!).

High Praise, indeed, from a truly great Evaluator of Talent. Thank you, Brother Manx!!
beer.gif
 
You Know It's FootBall Season when you approach a Red Light as the lead car in the far right lane of a 4 Lane Intersection and find yourself thinking ~ just for a millisecond before "Sanity" kicks back in, mind you!! ~ about whether you should roll up to the Line in a "43" Alignment or perhaps hang back as the Leo. True Story!! :eek:

And yes: It's always FootBall Season. :D

So long as you don't crash down or run an inside stunt, then no harm no foul. :)
 
here's my tentative draft philosophy on Defensive Tackles.

Thanks for explaining your philosophy in such detail and I agree Grid is awesome.

For me in no particular order.

1. Size, speed and athletic ability.
2. Do you get low and play with good leverage.
3. How are your hand skills.
4. Can you play multiple roles.
5. Do you have a skill that is dominant.
6. What type of gap player are you.
7. Do you play with power and are you physical.

Steph Tuitt has good size but his speed is marginal as is his athletic ability. He plays with decent leverage. His hand skills need improvement especially as a pass rusher. He can play multiple roles. I don't feel he has a dominant skill. He's a good run defender who could become elite in that regard with better power and hand skills. He can play a one or two gap but is much better suited to a read and react two gap. He plays with decent power but it could be improved.

I then match up prospects based on how I feel they are in different roles. A guy like Nix can move way up because he requires multiple blockers and could be dominant. I think Vollmer would handle Tuitt all day one on one.

You have to deduct some points from a guy like Donald because he lacks size, lacks are length, if he gets a good initial burst he plays with good leverage however if he doesn't then he loses leverage and isn't effective.

It's complicated but I try to picture how they fit in the defense and how they would matchup vs different players in different situations. I simply can see either TJ or AD playing along Chris Jones on passing downs and making a difference by getting up field. I was mulling over your suggestion of having Donald playing DE in the 4-3 on early downs and kicking inside on later downs. I have to go back and see if I think he can effectively set the edge on a consistent basis. If he could do that I would elevate his stock.
 
Thanks for explaining your philosophy in such detail and I agree Grid is awesome.

For me in no particular order.

1. Size, speed and athletic ability.
2. Do you get low and play with good leverage.
3. How are your hand skills.
4. Can you play multiple roles.
5. Do you have a skill that is dominant.
6. What type of gap player are you.
7. Do you play with power and are you physical.

Steph Tuitt has good size but his speed is marginal as is his athletic ability. He plays with decent leverage. His hand skills need improvement especially as a pass rusher. He can play multiple roles. I don't feel he has a dominant skill. He's a good run defender who could become elite in that regard with better power and hand skills. He can play a one or two gap but is much better suited to a read and react two gap.He plays with decent power but it could be improved.

I then match up prospects based on how I feel they are in different roles. A guy like Nix can move way up because he requires multiple blockers and could be dominant. I think Vollmer would handle Tuitt all day one on one.

You have to deduct some points from a guy like Donald because he lacks size, lacks are length, if he gets a good initial burst he plays with good leverage however if he doesn't then he loses leverage and isn't effective.

It's complicated but I try to picture how they fit in the defense and how they would matchup vs different players in different situations. I simply can see either TJ or AD playing along Chris Jones on passing downs and making a difference by getting up field. I was mulling over your suggestion of having Donald playing DE in the 4-3 on early downs and kicking inside on later downs. I have to go back and see if I think he can effectively set the edge on a consistent basis. If he could do that I would elevate his stock.

I can see your point on Vollmer v Tuitt. I tend to to be either really high on Tuitt or start really second guessing myself.

I was watching his latest Draft Breakdown vid against Arizona State. For a good time I was thinking it was his worst yet, Mayock even questioned his athleticism in commentary but then , by the end of the game, he had a strip sack and two outstanding rushes bending the edge against the LT that forced the QB into a throw, one of which was an interception. Sorry to harp on about Jernigan but Tuitt has almost had as many sacks in this one, supposedly down, year than Jernigan had in his whole college career. I understand that box score scouting is far from a full picture, but even so. Tuitt's ability to pressure the QB from the 5-tech position is why I like him so much (especially with Chandler Jones coming off the edge behind him). It might not be quite to the level of Seymour-McGinest but it's probably the closest we'll get too those heady heights again.

He can play a one or two gap but is much better suited to a read and react two gap.

This is exactly why I'm high on him because it's a good Patriots fit. I know you feel differently but then we're getting into territory I don't want to go into.

I did enjoy the breakdown of your philosophy.
 
Thanks for explaining your philosophy in such detail and I agree Grid is awesome.

Thank ye kindly, Brother EverLong. Huge Fan of your Work, as well, so that is especially appreciated!!
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i'm really torn on Tuitt. He looks like the perfect pats fit.
Problem is, you look at his 2012 tape and he was amazing. Then you start looking at his 2013 and is terrible, with a few amazing pkays in the middle. But he was so slowww for the most part.
 
I'm really coming round on Tuitt. I agree he'd be a great fit for the Pats. He can play 4-3 or 3-4 end, and play DT in 4-3 sets.

He's a good run defender with surprising burst for a guy his size. He won't be a terror against the pass but he would add to our pass rush depth and help with our DT rotation. Put him along side Chandler and it'd really improve our line. His play was a bit spotty in 2013 but I'm willing to give him a slight pass because he was coming back from injury. Bill can help fix some of his flaws, but you can't teach his raw skills.

He gives Bill one of the things he desires most: flexibility. He can play to a high level in multiple schemes.

I would advocate a trade down and pick him up at the top of round 2 somewhere.
 
This is exactly why I'm high on him because it's a good Patriots fit. I know you feel differently but then we're getting into territory I don't want to go into.

I did enjoy the breakdown of your philosophy.

It's just I don't feel he's a first round value. If they took Tuitt at 64 I'd be ok with it. If they had a pick in the middle of the 3rd I'd just feel that's the right value for a guy with his skill set in the NFL today. I think Hageman has Seymour potential and Tuitt has Warren potential. Shamar Stephen has Anthoy Pleasant potential.

So I ask myself what draft equity would I spent on Seymour, Warren and Pleasant if I knew that's what I was getting in today's NFL? Seymour (Hageman) I'd be fine if they used a 1st and 3rd to trade up and get him. Warren (Tuitt) I think a late 2nd or early 3rd is the correct value. Pleasant (Stephen) a 6th round value is about correct.

I loved the turn of the thread to our philosophies to better understand each other. I love debating this stuff on merit. The only time I get frustrated is if it turns to being a hater on the current team.
 
It's just I don't feel he's a first round value. If they took Tuitt at 64 I'd be ok with it. If they had a pick in the middle of the 3rd I'd just feel that's the right value for a guy with his skill set in the NFL today. I think Hageman has Seymour potential and Tuitt has Warren potential. Shamar Stephen has Anthoy Pleasant potential.

So I ask myself what draft equity would I spent on Seymour, Warren and Pleasant if I knew that's what I was getting in today's NFL? Seymour (Hageman) I'd be fine if they used a 1st and 3rd to trade up and get him. Warren (Tuitt) I think a late 2nd or early 3rd is the correct value. Pleasant (Stephen) a 6th round value is about correct.

I loved the turn of the thread to our philosophies to better understand each other. I love debating this stuff on merit. The only time I get frustrated is if it turns to being a hater on the current team.

I keep getting back to Tuitt vs. Brent Urban, and I take Urban. I think he can do everything Tuitt can do, with more core power. I like Tuitt, but definitely not in the 1st, and probably not before 62, and if Urban is on the board then I still pass.
 
I keep getting back to Tuitt vs. Brent Urban, and I take Urban. I think he can do everything Tuitt can do, with more core power. I like Tuitt, but definitely not in the 1st, and probably not before 62, and if Urban is on the board then I still pass.

I agree the drop off if there is any doesn't warrant taking Tuitt two rounds ahead of Urban.

Watching Urban my eyes were constantly drawn off to Eli Harold. The kids is raw and his technique sucks but he's so freaking athletic. If the kid can learn how to use his hands at all he's a guy to watching for next year or 16.
 
NFL.com added the scale. Also, good call by Captain of who wrote these reports. It was Nolan Nawrocki.

nfl.com/combine

9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player
8.00-8.99 Perennial All-Pro
7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro
7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.50-6.99 Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.00-6.49 Should become instant starter
5.50-5.99 Chance to become NFL starter
5.20-5.49 NFL backup or special teams potential
5.01-5.19 Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster
5.00 50-50 Chance to make NFL roster
4.75-4.99 Should be in an NFL training camp
4.50-4.74 Chance to be in an NFL training camp
NO GRADE Likely needs time in developmental league.

I still don't like his scale. So Clowney isn't a "once-in-lifetime player," atleast as a prospect?
 


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