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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Brady was talking contract. I'll post the link instead of the quote, so Chris gets the hits:
It Is What It Is Brady talks contract
Rivers is an elite QB. So was Cutler in Denver. Both teams have had elite offenses with terrible defenses the last couple years.
Rivers was 2nd in DVOA last year, behind only Peyton. Brees was 3rd. The only year Brady has been better than Rivers was last year, is 2007.
Brady's last deal had $39M for the first 3 years. The cap has gone from $85M to >$130M. So pretty much anything less than $59M for the first 3 years is him taking a pay cut. I don't think he will
unlike the Eli deal, this contract makes economic sense; Rivers is worth that kind of money.
As for Brady, there's been a lot of chatter out here that seems to converge around $40 guaranteed and $13--15 per year with everything thrown in; that makes sense to me. My personal view, based only on observing Brady over the years, is that he won't demand to be the top paid QB, but will expect to be in the top three; he points out how much he loves to be with a winner but he almost as often points out that the NFL is a "business" for player and team alike, back to the Lawyer Milloy deal.
I know there are some finer points of the CBA that impact the timing of this, but, I hope the Pats can get a deal done with him as soon as he's shown that he's "still Tom Brady," i.e., sometime towards the end of this season.
Brady was talking contract. I'll post the link instead of the quote, so Chris gets the hits:
It Is What It Is Brady talks contract
An elite QB has at least a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and Cutler clearly has never had that. His ratio is 1.4-1 over his career.
And most QB's usually have to play in a playoff game and maybe even win one. Again Cutler has not! Cutler is the most overrated QB in the league!
Synovia- I think people are interpreting you as believing that Rivers is just as good of a QB as Brady. As you can imagine on this board, you are inviting conflict.
In one post you say Brady is worth 20m more guaranteed than Rivers. We all agree with you on some level.
In another post, you say that Rivers is statistically on-par with Brady. Based purely on statistical career averages, your arguement has some validity.
I suggest you look at Brady pre-2007.
147 TDs, 80 Ints, for a ratio of 1.8. Below the 2-1 that you say they need. That being said, Brady has never played on a team with a defense nearly as bad as the one Cutler played with last year. Playing from behind means more throwing into trouble.
How many players are on an NFL team? Does defense matter? Brady has played most of his career (prior to 2007) with a good defense backing him up. That matters. Football is a team game.
1.8 is not "above 2.0" which is what you were arguing. Funny that the target keeps moving.And I suggest you use common sense: 1.8 is in the 2-1 range no? 1.4 clearly is not. Cutler is overrated and it isn't debatable.
That is a two way street. Cutler threw 18 picks last year, did that not hurt his defense?
It does count for something, but Cutler has been surrounded by a terrible defense, a bad running game, and one good wide receiver.And do you believe the the offensive talent around Brady prior to 2007 was anywhere near what Cutler has had his entire career in Denver? That counts for something, no? We'll see how great he is in Chicago.
Rivers is an elite QB. So was Cutler in Denver. Both teams have had elite offenses with terrible defenses the last couple years.
Rivers was 2nd in DVOA last year, behind only Peyton. Brees was 3rd. The only year Brady has been better than Rivers was last year, is 2007.
Brady's last deal had $39M for the first 3 years. The cap has gone from $85M to >$130M. So pretty much anything less than $59M for the first 3 years is him taking a pay cut. I don't think he will
And I suggest you use common sense: 1.8 is in the 2-1 range no? 1.4 clearly is not. Cutler is overrated and it isn't debatable.
That is a two way street. Cutler threw 18 picks last year, did that not hurt his defense? And do you believe the the offensive talent around Brady prior to 2007 was anywhere near what Cutler has had his entire career in Denver? That counts for something, no? We'll see how great he is in Chicago.
You can have your Rivers, I'll take Brady any day...
To call Cutler an elite QB after one year is ridiculous. He wasn't even a top 10 QB before last year. If he repeats last year's performance and gets his INTs down, then you might be able to call him that.
Personally, I think it is too early to call Rivers an elite QB either. His numbers the previous two years is not stellar either, but he was in a system where LT got the ball and they played tigher games other than last year because the defense was so good.
Rivers:
25-2006: 17.9%
26-2007: 7%
27-2008: 35.6%
Cutler:
24-2007: 19.4%
25-2008: 22%
Brady:
24-2001: 1.4%
25-2002: 8.6%
26-2003: 5.4%
27-2004: 33.2%
Manning (P)
24-2000: 35.1%
25-2001: 11.1%
26-2002: 16.2%
27-2003: 33.5%
Just for reference, career peaks: Brady, 2007: 56.9%, Manning, 2004 60.6% (50.1% in 2006)
Of course its inviting conflict. Half of the people on this board can't have any sort of conversation that doesn't come to the conclusion of "the Patriots are t3h r0x0r!!!ONE".
I think there is a top tier of elite quarterbacks that are essentially indistinguishable. One may be better than the other, may not be, but if you swapped them around, all of those teams would still be very good offensively. They have different skill sets, but are all elite. There's no sense in trying to decide who is the best, because it is impossible to completely seperate quarterback play from WR play and O-Line play.
In my mind, those guys are Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rivers. If he has another stellar year, and improves some, Ryan may get into that.
Cutler is right below them, and honestly, if he has a defense that doesn't force him to try to throw the ball 700 times, mostly into nickle and dime, I think he moves into that group.
Look at the money aspect of it. Why do you think Brady is getting more than Rivers if its not just about stats?
No, I said Brady was going to get 20M more guaranteed than Rivers.
What other type of argument is there? Rings? Do we really need to get into an argument that says Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino?
So in other words, you are showing me that DVOA is not a good stat in deterimining elite QBs. Thanks for pointing that out for us.
Here is where we have a difference of opinion. No, I do not think that just because you win a SB, you are an elite QB. I do think that there are a number of intangibles that can't be accounted for that seperate the very good QBs from the elite ones. Some examples are consistiently winning games both in the reg and post-season, leadership in the huddle, maturity, sacrificing the potentially spectactular play for the sake of game management (throw a 5 yrd completion and not chuck it down the field in double coverage), rising to the occasion when your team needs you, winning games that you have no business winning in the 4th Qtr. Yes you need the numbers to be part of the conversation, but in my opinion that is not the end-all in determining which QBs are elite and which ones aren't.
Yes, Cutler can't help the fact that his coach checked out and his defense was terrible. But if you review my criteria above, hes missing a few things.
Personally, I love Rivers. He is an outstanding young passer but he needs to win and more to be considered elite. He is an elite passer- not an elite QB.
Putting up a bunch of TDs for the rest of their careers makes them Dan Fouts or Dan Marino. Which isn't that bad of company, but it's not Tom Brady, John Elway, Joe Montana or Bart Starr company.
HI do think that there are a number of intangibles that can't be accounted for statistically that seperate the very good QBs from the elite ones. Some examples are consistiently winning games both in the reg and post-season, leadership in the huddle, maturity, sacrificing the potentially-spectactular play for the sake of game management (throw a 5 yrd completion, work the clock and not chuck it down the field in double coverage), rising to the occasion when your team needs you, winning games that you have no business winning in the 4th Qtr.
Yes, Cutler can't help the fact that his coach checked out and his defense was terrible. But if you review my criteria above, hes missing a few things.
Personally, I love Rivers. He is an outstanding young passer but he needs to win and more to be considered elite. He is an elite passer- not an elite QB.
Why do you think Brady deserves more $$$ than Rivers? If that was the case, based on the construct of your arguements, he'd get the same amount.