Rivers gets new contract... implications for re-signing Brady

[Bill219]

98.5 is reporting that Russ Hochstein has been traded to the Broncos

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady was talking contract. I'll post the link instead of the quote, so Chris gets the hits:

It Is What It Is Brady talks contract

 

[RobertWeathers]

Brady was talking contract. I'll post the link instead of the quote, so Chris gets the hits:

It Is What It Is Brady talks contract

Once again, Brady proves to be masterful at PR and not answering the question directly. When asked if the Pats approached him about his contract, on the surface, he answers the question with a non-answer. But I wonder....

"If somebody wants to pay you more money, [heck], I think we're all probably underpaid, don't you think?" said Brady. "We all wish we were paid more. That's not the reality. I'm focused on this year. I've thought about it. I just want to go out and have a great year. "

I take this as the Pats approached him or his people approached the Pats, they talked about $$$, Pats said X, Brady said Y, and they agreed to break it off and talk after the season or a later date.

Facinating stuff!

 

[mgcolby]

Rivers is an elite QB. So was Cutler in Denver. Both teams have had elite offenses with terrible defenses the last couple years.

Rivers was 2nd in DVOA last year, behind only Peyton. Brees was 3rd. The only year Brady has been better than Rivers was last year, is 2007.





Brady's last deal had $39M for the first 3 years. The cap has gone from $85M to >$130M. So pretty much anything less than $59M for the first 3 years is him taking a pay cut. I don't think he will

An elite QB has at least a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and Cutler clearly has never had that. His ratio is 1.4-1 over his career. And most QB's usually have to play in a playoff game and maybe even win one to be considered elite. Again Cutler has not! Cutler is the most overrated QB in the league!

I can't stand Rivers but he is definitely good. I don't think I would put him in elite status, but he does have the potential.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

unlike the Eli deal, this contract makes economic sense; Rivers is worth that kind of money.

As for Brady, there's been a lot of chatter out here that seems to converge around $40 guaranteed and $13--15 per year with everything thrown in; that makes sense to me. My personal view, based only on observing Brady over the years, is that he won't demand to be the top paid QB, but will expect to be in the top three; he points out how much he loves to be with a winner but he almost as often points out that the NFL is a "business" for player and team alike, back to the Lawyer Milloy deal.

I know there are some finer points of the CBA that impact the timing of this, but, I hope the Pats can get a deal done with him as soon as he's shown that he's "still Tom Brady," i.e., sometime towards the end of this season.

 

[RobertWeathers]

unlike the Eli deal, this contract makes economic sense; Rivers is worth that kind of money.

As for Brady, there's been a lot of chatter out here that seems to converge around $40 guaranteed and $13--15 per year with everything thrown in; that makes sense to me. My personal view, based only on observing Brady over the years, is that he won't demand to be the top paid QB, but will expect to be in the top three; he points out how much he loves to be with a winner but he almost as often points out that the NFL is a "business" for player and team alike, back to the Lawyer Milloy deal.

I know there are some finer points of the CBA that impact the timing of this, but, I hope the Pats can get a deal done with him as soon as he's shown that he's "still Tom Brady," i.e., sometime towards the end of this season.

Couldn't agree more. As he points out, he has had a couple of big $$$ contracts. hes already established himself career-wise and financially forwver. He certainly wants to be paid as an elite QB, but views winning and cementing his legacy as a QB extremly important.

Pats & TB will figure it out.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Brady was talking contract. I'll post the link instead of the quote, so Chris gets the hits:

It Is What It Is Brady talks contract

Great link. Thanks, Deus. The quotes are amazing; one can take almost anything from them.

It's a brilliant set of statements, that I doubt were spontaneous. Lots of ambiguity, but clear messages about hard work, deserving the big numbers, being underpaid and waiting to see where things stand after the year. Makes me feel that it's in the Pats interest to do a deal as soon as they feel ready.

 

[Synovia]

An elite QB has at least a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and Cutler clearly has never had that. His ratio is 1.4-1 over his career.

I suggest you look at Brady pre-2007.

147 TDs, 80 Ints, for a ratio of 1.8. Below the 2-1 that you say they need. That being said, Brady has never played on a team with a defense nearly as bad as the one Cutler played with last year. Playing from behind means more throwing into trouble.

Cutler and Rivers are the two best young QBs in the league, although if Ryan plays another year like he did last year, he joins them. The only players who can really be argued to be better than these two are Brady, Manning(P) and Brees.

And most QB's usually have to play in a playoff game and maybe even win one. Again Cutler has not! Cutler is the most overrated QB in the league!

How many players are on an NFL team? Does defense matter? Brady has played most of his career (prior to 2007) with a good defense backing him up. That matters. Football is a team game.

 

[Synovia]

Synovia- I think people are interpreting you as believing that Rivers is just as good of a QB as Brady. As you can imagine on this board, you are inviting conflict.

Of course its inviting conflict. Half of the people on this board can't have any sort of conversation that doesn't come to the conclusion of "the Patriots are t3h r0x0r!!!ONE".

I think there is a top tier of elite quarterbacks that are essentially indistinguishable. One may be better than the other, may not be, but if you swapped them around, all of those teams would still be very good offensively. They have different skill sets, but are all elite. There's no sense in trying to decide who is the best, because it is impossible to completely seperate quarterback play from WR play and O-Line play.

In my mind, those guys are Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rivers. If he has another stellar year, and improves some, Ryan may get into that.

Cutler is right below them, and honestly, if he has a defense that doesn't force him to try to throw the ball 700 times, mostly into nickle and dime, I think he moves into that group.

In one post you say Brady is worth 20m more guaranteed than Rivers. We all agree with you on some level.

No, I said Brady was going to get 20M more guaranteed than Rivers.

In another post, you say that Rivers is statistically on-par with Brady. Based purely on statistical career averages, your arguement has some validity.

What other type of argument is there? Rings? Do we really need to get into an argument that says Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino?

 

[mgcolby]

I suggest you look at Brady pre-2007.

147 TDs, 80 Ints, for a ratio of 1.8. Below the 2-1 that you say they need. That being said, Brady has never played on a team with a defense nearly as bad as the one Cutler played with last year. Playing from behind means more throwing into trouble.

And I suggest you use common sense: 1.8 is in the 2-1 range no? 1.4 clearly is not. Cutler is overrated and it isn't debatable.

How many players are on an NFL team? Does defense matter? Brady has played most of his career (prior to 2007) with a good defense backing him up. That matters. Football is a team game.

That is a two way street. Cutler threw 18 picks last year, did that not hurt his defense? And do you believe the the offensive talent around Brady prior to 2007 was anywhere near what Cutler has had his entire career in Denver? That counts for something, no? We'll see how great he is in Chicago.

 

[Synovia]

And I suggest you use common sense: 1.8 is in the 2-1 range no? 1.4 clearly is not. Cutler is overrated and it isn't debatable.

1.8 is not "above 2.0" which is what you were arguing. Funny that the target keeps moving.


The statement "this isn't debatable" is akin to saying "i've lost the debate so I'm shutting it down because I can't give any real evidence".


Again, Cutler's defense was historically bad last year.


Denver had an offensive DVOA of 24%, better than NE in any year other than 2007 (same as 2004, actually).

Denver also had a defensive DVOA of 24% (positive is bad with defense), worse than Brady has EVER played with. Denver's defense was 31st in the league, behind only Detroit. For comparison, NE's defense in 2003 was -22%, so the Broncos defense was as bad last year as NE's was good in 2003.

That is a two way street. Cutler threw 18 picks last year, did that not hurt his defense?

You know how many ints Cutler threw when his team was winning, tied, or within 7 points?


Six. And 15 TDs.


He threw 12 Ints when his team was down multiple scores.

And do you believe the the offensive talent around Brady prior to 2007 was anywhere near what Cutler has had his entire career in Denver? That counts for something, no? We'll see how great he is in Chicago.

It does count for something, but Cutler has been surrounded by a terrible defense, a bad running game, and one good wide receiver.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Rivers is an elite QB. So was Cutler in Denver. Both teams have had elite offenses with terrible defenses the last couple years.

Rivers was 2nd in DVOA last year, behind only Peyton. Brees was 3rd. The only year Brady has been better than Rivers was last year, is 2007.





Brady's last deal had $39M for the first 3 years. The cap has gone from $85M to >$130M. So pretty much anything less than $59M for the first 3 years is him taking a pay cut. I don't think he will

You can have your Rivers, I'll take Brady any day...

 

[Rob0729]

And I suggest you use common sense: 1.8 is in the 2-1 range no? 1.4 clearly is not. Cutler is overrated and it isn't debatable.





That is a two way street. Cutler threw 18 picks last year, did that not hurt his defense? And do you believe the the offensive talent around Brady prior to 2007 was anywhere near what Cutler has had his entire career in Denver? That counts for something, no? We'll see how great he is in Chicago.

I'm with you on Cutler. Cutler got a lot of numbers last year because the Broncos were so far behind and he needed to air out the ball. He was average the previous year and mediocre the year before it. People forget that before last year, Cutler wasn't all that highly regarded at all. In 2007, he had 3497 yards (10th in the league), 20 TDs (13th), and 14 INTs (12th)with 27 sacks (8th). He only played 5 games the year before.

To call Cutler an elite QB after one year is ridiculous. He wasn't even a top 10 QB before last year. If he repeats last year's performance and gets his INTs down, then you might be able to call him that.

Personally, I think it is too early to call Rivers an elite QB either. His numbers the previous two years is not stellar either, but he was in a system where LT got the ball and they played tigher games other than last year because the defense was so good.

 

[Rob0729]

You can have your Rivers, I'll take Brady any day...

Me too. Brady's strength goes well beyond numbers.

 

[Synovia]

To call Cutler an elite QB after one year is ridiculous. He wasn't even a top 10 QB before last year. If he repeats last year's performance and gets his INTs down, then you might be able to call him that.

Personally, I think it is too early to call Rivers an elite QB either. His numbers the previous two years is not stellar either, but he was in a system where LT got the ball and they played tigher games other than last year because the defense was so good.

Rivers:
25-2006: 17.9%
26-2007: 7%
27-2008: 35.6%

Cutler:
24-2007: 19.4%
25-2008: 22%

Brady:
24-2001: 1.4%
25-2002: 8.6%
26-2003: 5.4%
27-2004: 33.2%

Manning (P)
24-2000: 35.1%
25-2001: 11.1%
26-2002: 16.2%
27-2003: 33.5%


Just for reference, career peaks: Brady, 2007: 56.9%, Manning, 2004 60.6% (50.1% in 2006)

 

[Rob0729]

Rivers:
25-2006: 17.9%
26-2007: 7%
27-2008: 35.6%

Cutler:
24-2007: 19.4%
25-2008: 22%

Brady:
24-2001: 1.4%
25-2002: 8.6%
26-2003: 5.4%
27-2004: 33.2%

Manning (P)
24-2000: 35.1%
25-2001: 11.1%
26-2002: 16.2%
27-2003: 33.5%


Just for reference, career peaks: Brady, 2007: 56.9%, Manning, 2004 60.6% (50.1% in 2006)

So in other words, you are showing me that DVOA is not a good stat in deterimining elite QBs. Thanks for pointing that out for us.

Again, both Cutler and Rivers have had one very good year each. Both were average or unremarkable their other years. Not enough of a history to claim either are elite after one year of good play. There were talks that Cutler was in a make or break year last year and if he didn't break out that the Broncos might move on to another QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Of course its inviting conflict. Half of the people on this board can't have any sort of conversation that doesn't come to the conclusion of "the Patriots are t3h r0x0r!!!ONE".

I think there is a top tier of elite quarterbacks that are essentially indistinguishable. One may be better than the other, may not be, but if you swapped them around, all of those teams would still be very good offensively. They have different skill sets, but are all elite. There's no sense in trying to decide who is the best, because it is impossible to completely seperate quarterback play from WR play and O-Line play.

In my mind, those guys are Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rivers. If he has another stellar year, and improves some, Ryan may get into that.

Cutler is right below them, and honestly, if he has a defense that doesn't force him to try to throw the ball 700 times, mostly into nickle and dime, I think he moves into that group.

Look at the money aspect of it. Why do you think Brady is getting more than Rivers if its not just about stats?




No, I said Brady was going to get 20M more guaranteed than Rivers.



What other type of argument is there? Rings? Do we really need to get into an argument that says Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino?

Here is where we have a difference of opinion. No, I do not think that just because you win a SB, you are an elite QB. I do think that there are a number of intangibles that can't be accounted for statistically that seperate the very good QBs from the elite ones. Some examples are consistiently winning games both in the reg and post-season, leadership in the huddle, maturity, sacrificing the potentially-spectactular play for the sake of game management (throw a 5 yrd completion, work the clock and not chuck it down the field in double coverage), rising to the occasion when your team needs you, winning games that you have no business winning in the 4th Qtr. Yes you need the numbers to be part of the conversation, but in my opinion that is not the end-all in determining which QBs are elite and which ones aren't.

Yes, Cutler can't help the fact that his coach checked out and his defense was terrible. But if you review my criteria above, hes missing a few things.

Personally, I love Rivers. He is an outstanding young passer but he needs to win and more to be considered elite. He is an elite passer- not an elite QB.

Putting up a bunch of TDs for the rest of their careers makes them Dan Fouts or Dan Marino. Which isn't that bad of company, but it's not Tom Brady, John Elway or Joe Montana.

Why do you think Brady deserves more $$$ than Rivers? If that was the case, based on the construct of your arguements, he'd get the same amount.

 

[Synovia]

So in other words, you are showing me that DVOA is not a good stat in deterimining elite QBs. Thanks for pointing that out for us.

So, essentially, because the stats disagree with you, they're wrong. Nice.

 

[Rob0729]

Here is where we have a difference of opinion. No, I do not think that just because you win a SB, you are an elite QB. I do think that there are a number of intangibles that can't be accounted for that seperate the very good QBs from the elite ones. Some examples are consistiently winning games both in the reg and post-season, leadership in the huddle, maturity, sacrificing the potentially spectactular play for the sake of game management (throw a 5 yrd completion and not chuck it down the field in double coverage), rising to the occasion when your team needs you, winning games that you have no business winning in the 4th Qtr. Yes you need the numbers to be part of the conversation, but in my opinion that is not the end-all in determining which QBs are elite and which ones aren't.

Yes, Cutler can't help the fact that his coach checked out and his defense was terrible. But if you review my criteria above, hes missing a few things.

Personally, I love Rivers. He is an outstanding young passer but he needs to win and more to be considered elite. He is an elite passer- not an elite QB.

Putting up a bunch of TDs for the rest of their careers makes them Dan Fouts or Dan Marino. Which isn't that bad of company, but it's not Tom Brady, John Elway, Joe Montana or Bart Starr company.

I agree that you can be an elite QB without Super Bowl wins. Elway was an elite QB before he won a single Super Bowl. Jim Kelly, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, and several others were elite QBs without a Super Bowl win.

Super Bowl wins are one thing, but winning is an other. I think to be an elite QB your team needs to win no matter what you have around you. Carson Palmer before his injury was able to do it with not much around him. An elite QB doesn't need to have a 12 win team, but if he has a losing record as a starter like Cutler has disqualifies him from being elite. I don't think an elite QB guarantees you a playoff spot, but an elite QB should guarantee you a winning season.

 

[Synovia]

HI do think that there are a number of intangibles that can't be accounted for statistically that seperate the very good QBs from the elite ones. Some examples are consistiently winning games both in the reg and post-season, leadership in the huddle, maturity, sacrificing the potentially-spectactular play for the sake of game management (throw a 5 yrd completion, work the clock and not chuck it down the field in double coverage), rising to the occasion when your team needs you, winning games that you have no business winning in the 4th Qtr.

My issue with this sort of argument is that there's no way to test it. A very good example of the winning/playoff argument is one of the last times Brady and Rivers faced each other in the playoffs.

Rivers was the better player that day, and the only reason the Patriots won is because a defensive player was too stupid to go down after picking off Brady, and Troy Brown was smart enough to give the ball the old tomahawk chop.

The idea that you can judge quarterbacks based on winning records is essentially discounting the fact that defense is just as important as offense, and special teams count too.

Yes, Cutler can't help the fact that his coach checked out and his defense was terrible. But if you review my criteria above, hes missing a few things.

What is he missing? Theres no way to tell if his leadership, or any of those things are good or bad, because his defense is terrible. All we can go on is performance.

Personally, I love Rivers. He is an outstanding young passer but he needs to win and more to be considered elite. He is an elite passer- not an elite QB.

The only think Rivers isn't elite at is playing defense at this point. A quarterback's job is to run the OFFENSE. The Chargers offense has been very good since he showed up. He can't help the fact that their defense is terrible.

Why do you think Brady deserves more $$$ than Rivers? If that was the case, based on the construct of your arguements, he'd get the same amount.

Again, you're attributing things to me that I did not say.