Rivers gets new contract... implications for re-signing Brady

[Rob0729]

So, essentially, because the stats disagree with you, they're wrong. Nice.

No so essentially being efficient isn't being elite. DVOA measures efficiency because you can have a higher DVOA than a guy with better numbers in virtually every category. An elite QB has to be efficient, produce wins, and stand out. Neither Rivers nor Cutler stood out as anything special other than last year in their careers. In fact, Cutler in 2007 stood out more for his negatives than positives. How can you coach and fans lose trust in you and still be considered elite. You overrely on DVOA too much. It may be a better stat than others out there, but it isn't the be all and end all stat.

Tell me how can you be considered an elite QB yet not get your team into the playoffs nor have stats that are up at the top in categories like yards or TDs like Cutler prior to last year? Was Cutler a stealth elite QB prior to last year? Those are best elite QBs - the ones that everyone recognize as the best at their position, but they just don't realize they do.

 

[Synovia]

I think to be an elite QB your team needs to win no matter what you have around you.

So, football is 100% determined by the QB?

Thats the only reasonable thing that can be taken from this argument; that defense and special teams are utterly irrelevant to who wins a game.

 

[Synovia]

Tell me how can you be considered an elite QB yet not get your team into the playoffs nor have stats that are up at the top in categories like yards or TDs like Cutler prior to last year? W.

Because Offense is only 45% of the game of football.

Again, Trent Dilfer got his team to the playoffs.

 

[patfanken]

...

The cap is now just under $130M. In 6 years it will be approaching $160M conservatively speaking.
.

I agree with most of what you posted but I have a problem with THIS statement. What makes you think that in 5 years (about the time IMHO the economy will be heating up again), the cap will be 160MM. The owners are basically saying that the current revenue sharing ration is unsustainable, why in a bad economy (and will be for another 2 years, at least) would you think that revenues will expand. As it is I thought the signing untried rookies to contracts that averaged 10-15% HIGHER than last year was completely idiotic in this economic environment, and another example of why a rookie salary cap is needed. And why the union and vet players aren't lined up with the owners about this is even more idiotic, since they would be the primary beneficiaries.

So, after making a short question long ( ). Why do you think the cap will rise $30MM over the next 5 years.

 

[Synovia]

Tell me how can you be considered an elite QB yet not get your team into the playoffs nor have stats that are up at the top in categories like yards or TDs like Cutler prior to last year?

How was Brady considered an Elite Quarterback prior to 2007? He didn't lead the league in anything other than TDs in 2002.

 

[Synovia]

I agree with most of what you posted but I have a problem with THIS statement. What makes you think that in 5 years (about the time IMHO the economy will be heating up again), the cap will be 160MM.

Simple 4% inflation puts it at

130
135.2
140.6
146.2
152.1
158.2


So I'd say 160 is a pretty decent guess. Its been going up at MUCH faster than 4%.

 

[Rob0729]

My issue with this sort of argument is that there's no way to test it. A very good example of the winning/playoff argument is one of the last times Brady and Rivers faced each other in the playoffs.

Rivers was the better player that day, and the only reason the Patriots won is because a defensive player was too stupid to go down after picking off Brady, and Troy Brown was smart enough to give the ball the old tomahawk chop.

Really?!? Rivers was 19 for 37 for 211 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs while Brady was 22 for 33 for 209 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Yes, Rivers was injured (granted so was Brady), but Brady was better.

The idea that you can judge quarterbacks based on winning records is essentially discounting the fact that defense is just as important as offense, and special teams count too.

To be an elite QB, you either need consistent numbers or consistent wins. You cannot be an elite QB with neither. Cutler doesn't have either. One year is not consistent. To be elite, you need to stand out. That is the the definition of being elite. Cutler isn't there and neither is Rivers.

What is he missing? Theres no way to tell if his leadership, or any of those things are good or bad, because his defense is terrible. All we can go on is performance.

He's missing a lot. He has the physical skills, but he lacks the maturity and dedication to be elite in my mind. It is well documented about his lack of maturity and dedication to preparing for a game.

The only think Rivers isn't elite at is playing defense at this point. A quarterback's job is to run the OFFENSE. The Chargers offense has been very good since he showed up. He can't help the fact that their defense is terrible.

Rivers has been the starting QB for three years and the Chargers had a top defense in two of them. Why do you only look at last year?




Again, you're attributing things to me that I did not say.[/quote]

 

[Rob0729]

So, football is 100% determined by the QB?

Thats the only reasonable thing that can be taken from this argument; that defense and special teams are utterly irrelevant to who wins a game.

I said win, not being a contender. I don't think you can be an elite QB with a losing record unless you have amazing numbers year after year (ie Drew Brees). Cutler has a losing record and unremarkable numbers for his career.

 

[Rob0729]

How was Brady considered an Elite Quarterback prior to 2007? He didn't lead the league in anything other than TDs in 2002.

You are right and he didn't win anything either. What a bum! Maybe if he won a Super Bowl or two, he would be elite, but since he didn't he sucks. Reading comprehension is a wonderful thing.

Again, here is what you are responding to:

Tell me how can you be considered an elite QB yet not get your team into the playoffs nor have stats that are up at the top in categories like yards or TDs like Cutler prior to last year?

Again, you are an elite QB in one of two ways (or both): Mindblowing stats like Manning or consistantly winning big games and getting deep into the playoffs like Brady and McNabb.

 

[patfanken]

Simple 4% inflation puts it at

130
135.2
140.6
146.2
152.1
158.2


So I'd say 160 is a pretty decent guess. Its been going up at MUCH faster than 4%.

But that was like the faulty logic that stated the RE market would go up FOREVER. That there weren't downs to go along with the ups in the stock market. The fact is that in a great econoy, 4% increase in revenue is VERY conservative, but this is a bad economy. You might even see a drop in revenue over the next few years. Why wouldn't you. As ad revenues dry up, networks might even ask for (and get) some relief from the contracts they signed. Also the owners might seek a renegotiation of the very ratio that currently is in effect, again lowering the revenues the players are receiving.

The players have to remember that the amount of capital at RISK for owners is HUGE, and credit from banks is suddenly VERY tight (despite the money they stole from the taxpayers). Even a great franchise that is financially very sound like the Pats could suddenly be on shaky ground if Banks recall loans on the stadium and Patriots place. Or if the Banks that hold the loans get in trouble. These are issues that are completely out of the control of the Krafts. And if this is true about a team that's probably as financially stable as the Pats, what about the dozen or more teams that are actually looking at losing money RIGHT NOW.

So its in THIS environment the players are essentially asking the owners to keep risking more and more in this, while at the same time, lowering their margin of their profit, so they can get paid even MORE, completely disregarding that the level of pay for NFL players has grown astronomically over the period the cap's been in place.

 

[mgcolby]

1.8 is not "above 2.0" which is what you were arguing. Funny that the target keeps moving.

I said 2-1 as nice round number. Next time I will be sure to be exact. I would say 1.7-1.9 is relative to 2-1; 1.5 and below is not.

The statement "this isn't debatable" is akin to saying "i've lost the debate so I'm shutting it down because I can't give any real evidence".

That is akin to it is not debatable! I could give two ****s about his defense, he threw 18 picks to 25 TD's. That is not good regardless of whatever excuse you want to give him. It seems you put more value on yards than you do true production. To me TD to INT ration is true production.

In the month of December when his team needed him most he threw 4 TD's and was picked 5 times. And his team lost 3 straight games. But that was all on the defense according to you.

In his team's 8 wins he threw 17 TD's and 5 INT
In his team's 8 losses he threw 8 TD's and 13 INT
But I'm convinced this is solely on the defense.

He threw 10 TD's and 7 Int in 6 divisional games against the 25, 27 and 31 ranked defenses. An elite QB should have dominated that division given that every defense in the division was on par with his own. In 5 games against the same competition Tyler Thigpen threw 6 TD's to 3 Int on 100 less attempts, meaning his numbers were essentially on par with Jay Cutler. Oh wait you like exacts. Based on Cutlers attempts Thigpen would have put up 9.6 TD's and 4.8 INT's against the same exact competition, with a worse defense.

Rivers against his division threw 13 TD's to 6 INT's on 70 less passes with a defense ranked 25th vs 29th. In the month of December when Rivers was needed, he threw 11 TD's and only 1 INT. One team with the 25th ranked defense wins 4 games in a row and the other with the 29th ranked defense loses 3 in a row. And the difference....QB play!

Again, Cutler's defense was historically bad last year.


Denver had an offensive DVOA of 24%, better than NE in any year other than 2007 (same as 2004, actually).

Denver also had a defensive DVOA of 24% (positive is bad with defense), worse than Brady has EVER played with. Denver's defense was 31st in the league, behind only Detroit. For comparison, NE's defense in 2003 was -22%, so the Broncos defense was as bad last year as NE's was good in 2003.




You know how many ints Cutler threw when his team was winning, tied, or within 7 points?


Six. And 15 TDs.


He threw 12 Ints when his team was down multiple scores.


It does count for something, but Cutler has been surrounded by a terrible defense, a bad running game, and one good wide receiver.

I wonder if Phillip Rivers agrees, 34 TD's and 11 INT with the 25th ranked defense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

My issue with this sort of argument is that there's no way to test it. A very good example of the winning/playoff argument is one of the last times Brady and Rivers faced each other in the playoffs.

Rivers was the better player that day, and the only reason the Patriots won is because a defensive player was too stupid to go down after picking off Brady, and Troy Brown was smart enough to give the ball the old tomahawk chop.

The idea that you can judge quarterbacks based on winning records is essentially discounting the fact that defense is just as important as offense, and special teams count too.



What is he missing? Theres no way to tell if his leadership, or any of those things are good or bad, because his defense is terrible. All we can go on is performance.




The only think Rivers isn't elite at is playing defense at this point. A quarterback's job is to run the OFFENSE. The Chargers offense has been very good since he showed up. He can't help the fact that their defense is terrible.




Again, you're attributing things to me that I did not say.

You said/think/believe that you think Brady will get $20m more than Rivers. There must be a reason for you to say that. What is it?

We'll just have to disagree on the other points. Our beliefs asto what an elite QB are different. I do think that there is a BIG difference between an elite passer and an elite QB. Maybe that is our arguement.

The 2006 Div is a classic example. Brady played like crap the entire game and made the plays he needed to when he needed to in order to put his team in a position to win. Did the Pats bail him out- absolutely. Did Rivers play better than him? Depends on how you wish to measure it. Statistically, Rivers was just ok in that game. In terms of Qb rating, etc., Brady was worse. But he won.

It's not a murky arguement. Let history and the Qb's body of work tell you who the elite QBs are and who the elite passers are and look at the differences.

 

[Synovia]

To be an elite QB, you either need consistent numbers or consistent wins. You cannot be an elite QB with neither. Cutler doesn't have either. One year is not consistent. To be elite, you need to stand out. That is the the definition of being elite. Cutler isn't there and neither is Rivers.

Cutler's DVOA has been +22% and +19% the last 2 years. Thats consistently great. Brady has only been above 20% DVOA three years in his career, 2004, 2006, 2007.

He's missing a lot. He has the physical skills, but he lacks the maturity and dedication to be elite in my mind. It is well documented about his lack of maturity and dedication to preparing for a game.

I missed the part where you detailed that you're part of the Bronco's training staff, and sit in on team meetings, and film study. Your comments about Maturity and Dedication are nothing other than idle, ignorant conjecture.

Rivers has been the starting QB for three years and the Chargers had a top defense in two of them. Why do you only look at last year?

Because theres no need to talk about the other two, he was above average in one, and elite in the other. Plus, they were terrible in 2008, good in 2007, and below average in 2006.

And I don't think I've talked much about River's defense. I've talked about Cutler's defense.

 

[mgcolby]

So, football is 100% determined by the QB?

Thats the only reasonable thing that can be taken from this argument; that defense and special teams are utterly irrelevant to who wins a game.

No, but that one position more often than not determines wins vs losses.

 

[Synovia]

He threw 10 TD's and 7 Int in 6 divisional games against the 25, 27 and 31 ranked defenses. An elite QB should have dominated that division given that every defense in the division was on par with his own.

You should tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 8 Td and 6 Int against his divison in 2006.


Oak, SD, KC were ranked 31, 28, and 19, btw. Still bad, but not all that much worse than the 27, 20, and 12 that Brady faced in '06, especially considering that NE's defense was ranked 7th that year.

 

[Synovia]

No, but that one position more often than not determines wins vs losses.

You sure about that? You mind showing me some statistical correlations? You willing to show those same correlations with defense and WR and Oline metrics filtered out?

 

[Rob0729]

Cutler's DVOA has been +22% and +19% the last 2 years. Thats consistently great. Brady has only been above 20% DVOA three years in his career, 2004, 2006, 2007.

Yawn! DVOA isn't yards and TDs. Epic failure on your part, but keep on pulling out the DVOAs for every argument because that is all you have.

I missed the part where you detailed that you're part of the Bronco's training staff, and sit in on team meetings, and film study. Your comments about Maturity and Dedication are nothing other than idle, ignorant conjecture.

Well, you are the expert on ignorant. Go look up Jay Cutler and his history and there is plenty evidence of a lack of maturity (all you have to do is look how he shot his way out of town) and lack of preparation.

Because theres no need to talk about the other two, he was above average in one, and elite in the other. Plus, they were terrible in 2008, good in 2007, and below average in 2006.

And I don't think I've talked much about River's defense. I've talked about Cutler's defense.

Maybe that is why Cutler was so average in 2007. He should be considered elite because his average numbers would have been great if he had a defense. How can he throw the ball when his defense isn't blocking for him and getting him sacked. QBs with bad defenses typically have better numbers than ones with good ones because QBs with good defenses don't have to air out the ball and can play ball control offense like Brady did much of his Super Bowl run.



Seriously, what team are you a fan of because it it pretty clear for a long, long time, you ain't a Pats fan.

 

[Rob0729]

You sure about that? You mind showing me some statistical correlations? You willing to show those same correlations with defense and WR and Oline metrics filtered out?

Well, the Pats won five less games last year than 2007 with an easier schedule and the only significant changes were at QB and CB. In fact, they upgraded the LB corp. So it was either Brady or the combination of Brady and Samuel that was the biggest difference in 5 wins.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You sure about that? You mind showing me some statistical correlations? You willing to show those same correlations with defense and WR and Oline metrics filtered out?

Not sure stats are requried. Qb makes pre-snap reads, calls audibles, calls protections, calls sight/route adjustments, puts players in motion, executes play-action and handles the ball 55-65 times during the game.

No other player on the field has remotely the responsibility or the potential for failure that the QB has during a game. C'mon Synovia, you know that!

 

[Synovia]

You said/think/believe that you think Brady will get $20m more than Rivers. There must be a reason for you to say that. What is it?

Differences in the Market. Different celebrity.

We'll just have to disagree on the other points. Our beliefs asto what an elite QB are different. I do think that there is a BIG difference between an elite passer and an elite QB. Maybe that is our arguement.

Thats the basis of it . In my mind, QB = Passer (well, more runner of offense).

The 2006 Div is a classic example. Brady played like crap the entire game and made the plays he needed to when he needed to in order to put his team in a position to win.

So, when he threw a pick in the 4th quarter, down, he was putting them in a position to win?

Let history and the Qb's body of work tell you who the elite QBs are and who the elite passers are and look at the differences.

The differences? Good defense.