Reiss: Pats should Thank Niners for Passing on Mac

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I don't disagree about the major injury factor, but I'd like to see the trends on all these guys with their rusing attempts, because it seems like a pretty clear pattern that most running QBs tend to decrease in rush attempts and rush efficiency as their careers go on. Just look at the drop off from for running backs and receivers in their late 20s/early 30s and apply it to QBs. For running production, QBs usually hit their peak performance very early.

I get that but there could be different reasons for that, no? A player naturally declining or being replaced, not just his rushing ability but overall skills, non-contact injuries, shortening - ending a career. All could lead to less games = less rushing attempts.

A part of me believes hurt is hurt. We've seen countless pocket passers miss a year or eventually get broken down from hits both inside and outside the pocket. It's just a brutal sport that leads to short careers.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Lot of 56% career passers on this list
And a lot of running threat QBs who stopped running around year 6.

Young is the outlier

And. this. is. why. we. don't. bring. up. Elway. in. an. all-time. top. 15. discussion. borg.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

Just looking at the groups should throw up all sorts of red flags about that study. I don't really need to go further than that to know that the results are going to be significantly flawed.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It’s so hard to tell - maybe not possible for an evaluator - at which point a quarterback has bailed on the pocket because he really needed to and when he didn’t need to.

I’m a big believer that pro football requires a quarterback, to be most successful, to have a full view of the field and be able to throw anywhere. Hence, running in one direction limits vision and options. I’m addition, five linemen are the only immobile positions that can’t be changed and must stay relatively stationary in place. Those linemen are facing forward towards incoming defenders, so they’re not made to change blocking directions when the quarterback suddenly leaves the pocket and improvs.

It takes an astonishing amount of athleticism and skill for scrambling quarterbacks to equal, by improv and juking, what the best pocket quarterbacks can do without that stuff. Example: Rodgers has that extra dimension, but advanced stats show due to sacks and lesser YPA on runs than passes, in the end he’s still behind Brady, Manning, Brees, and offensive ppg confirms this too.

So it’s possible - sure - for a dual threat or a scrambler to do well, it’s just such much more rare. We have the elusive guys like Young and Elway, the backfield dodgers like Staubach and Tarkenton. But finding that tiny seem within the pocket, stepping up and angling your body for a throwing lane, avoiding a sack by split seconds…is at least as effective but not celebrated. None of these guys could scramble at all but could avoid sacks and get the ball out quickly: Brady, Manning, Brees, Marino, Starr, Unitas, Baugh.

So I usually ere on the side of a pocket passer like Jones who doesn’t bolt from the pocket. Like any position, there’s no universal truth. On some plays, an elusive guy may have avoided a sack, while on others, a disciplined pocket quarterback hangs in and fires a completion while a scrambler was running away from pressure, looking to fans like a hero but actually being less valuable. In the end, I think the guy who stays in the pocket has the better long-term results. It’s not to say every pocket QB is better than every scrambling QB, but again, pocket QBs are more likely to succeed.

 

[Pats1971]

Just looking at the groups should throw up all sorts of red flags about that study. I don't really need to go further than that to know that the results are going to be significantly flawed.

3 superbowls make up that entire group. Thats the red flag to me, especially since two of the superbowls were on the back of a running back. Fact is, if you cannot pass, it does not matter how good of a runner you are, if you are a great passer, it does not matter if you can run.

 

[Deus Irae]

3 superbowls make up that entire group. Thats the red flag to me, especially since two of the superbowls were on the back of a running back. Fact is, if you cannot pass, it does not matter how good of a runner you are, if you are a great passer, it does not matter if you can run.

It's not even that, though I'm not disagreeing with your point. It's that the grouping doesn't really make sense.


Realistically, with regards to running, you can break down QBs into 3 different types. Being in one category doesn't mean that you never apply the motive of another category, but it does sum up the player's inclination.

1. Runs to save his life (i.e. Brady)
2. Runs to pass (i.e. Rodgers)
3. Runs to run (i.e. Jackson)

When you break it down beyond that, you get terrible mistakes like putting Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel in the same group as Lamar Jackson, and putting Ben Roethlisberger in the same group as Tom Brady (Over the course of their careers, though Roethlisberger has altered his style due to age and...... injuries). The category choice doomed the study from the beginning.

 

[Wozzy]

There are many causes for sacks and it might be Brady's big brain that keeps his sack numbers down. Plus, he get's rid of the ball quicker than Luck did.

The only negative that I saw from Luck other than his injuries was his inaccuracy. He seemed to sail his passes to the outside and his career completion % is in Cant Newton's range.

In 2018 Andrew Luck threw the second most pass attempts in the NFL, he completed 67.3% of his passes for the 5th most passing yards in the league... his receivers in order of receptions:

T.Y. Hilton
Eric Ebron
Nyheim Hines
Chester Rogers
Ryan Grant
Dontrelle Inman
Zach Pascal
Jack Doyle
Marlon Mack
Jordan Wilkins
Erik Swoope
Mo Alie-Cox
Marcus Johnson

Outside of Hilton who is great when healthy and Ebron who is simply "okay," that ^ is the absolute dregs of the NFL.

Seems the Patriots are the only team where "weapons" are a problem, everywhere else it's the QB doesn't possess some magic clutch juice or some other fanboy nonsense.

 

[Wozzy]

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

The bigger question from that tweet above isn't how many of them run, how often, or why, but rather... how many of them can pass accurately from the pocket to beat superior defenses in the playoffs?

The short list... Young, McNabb, McNair and Elway. The times they didn't win it all it was because they were on the worse team... not because of a missing magic clutch gene.

Running in and of itself is not a problem. Lamar Jackson is the modern equivalent of Michael Vick, extraordinarily dangerous with his feet, can pass using scheme against lesser opponents, but ultimately can't pass well against playoff defenses who can force him to pass from the pocket. Great (playoff) defenses are talented and well coached, they can force an opposing QB into uncomfortable positions and to beat them with his arm, to throw into tight windows accurately, when that time comes it's the QB who can and who is on the better TEAM who wins.

 

[scott99]

They've had so much success in the last 20 years that once in a while a huge sh!t-eatin' grin comes across my face (and won't go away) when I reflect on it all. This is one of those times.

In the beginning I would spend the weeks leading up to the SB by watching 3 Games to Glory I, II and III and any other videos I could find. Now that they're up to VI I need all of the two weeks and sometimes that isn't enough to see it all.

It's been a great ride that will never happen again, by the Pats or any other team. I just hope they can find a decent QB to make games more enjoyable.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Belichick has at least one more Lombardi up his sleeve. This defense could be a top 5 defense as early as THIS year. Adding Judon, Hightower & Van Noy is HUGE. Brought back Guy & Wise. Godchaux might be a huge addition to the run defense. Even Montravius Adams could be helpful. Henry Anderson was always a pain in the ass to play against when with the Jets. Uche and Dugger could make a big 2nd year jump. I think this defense is going to be really good.

Then we’ve added 4 PROVEN pass catchers to the offense. I still have high hopes for Asiasi. Meyers is a proven possession receiver. An excellent O-Line/run game. The missing piece in making this team a contender, is the QB position. Jones could quite possibly be the answer. Just like the 2001 Patriots, this team just needs a good game manager who can make big plays when needed. Just like the 2001 Patriots, this team has a good run game and solid defense. Whether Jones is the guy this year or next is the big question.

 

[Chevy]

It’s so hard to tell - maybe not possible for an evaluator - at which point a quarterback has bailed on the pocket because he really needed to and when he didn’t need to.

I’m a big believer that pro football requires a quarterback, to be most successful, to have a full view of the field and be able to throw anywhere. Hence, running in one direction limits vision and options. I’m addition, five linemen are the only immobile positions that can’t be changed and must stay relatively stationary in place. Those linemen are facing forward towards incoming defenders, so they’re not made to change blocking directions when the quarterback suddenly leaves the pocket and improvs.

It takes an astonishing amount of athleticism and skill for scrambling quarterbacks to equal, by improv and juking, what the best pocket quarterbacks can do without that stuff. Example: Rodgers has that extra dimension, but advanced stats show due to sacks and lesser YPA on runs than passes, in the end he’s still behind Brady, Manning, Brees, and offensive ppg confirms this too.

So it’s possible - sure - for a dual threat or a scrambler to do well, it’s just such much more rare. We have the elusive guys like Young and Elway, the backfield dodgers like Staubach and Tarkenton. But finding that tiny seem within the pocket, stepping up and angling your body for a throwing lane, avoiding a sack by split seconds…is at least as effective but not celebrated. None of these guys could scramble at all but could avoid sacks and get the ball out quickly: Brady, Manning, Brees, Marino, Starr, Unitas, Baugh.

So I usually ere on the side of a pocket passer like Jones who doesn’t bolt from the pocket. Like any position, there’s no universal truth. On some plays, an elusive guy may have avoided a sack, while on others, a disciplined pocket quarterback hangs in and fires a completion while a scrambler was running away from pressure, looking to fans like a hero but actually being less valuable. In the end, I think the guy who stays in the pocket has the better long-term results. It’s not to say every pocket QB is better than every scrambling QB, but again, pocket QBs are more likely to succeed.

What's the impact on the O-Line?

QB A is a pure pocket passer. He can make those moves in that three yard box to avoid a rusher, then continue his reads / make the throw. The O-Line needs to make minor adjustments, knowing where the QB is and will be.

QB B is mobile, but prefers the pocket. Runs for him are planned (either as the first option or part of the play as the final "checkdown"). Again, the O-Line knows where the QB is / will be, but now it's block, move the pocket, block, get downfield.

QB C is a runner. From this outsider's perspective, every play call has an asterisk - dude can just take off without warning. The O-Line would need to pay more active attention to where the QB is, taking away from the attention needed to form / keep the pocket. Where an lineman with QB A or B senses the QB moving in the pocket, they pretty much know it's pocket presence. With QB B, if the play doesn't call for a QB run, chances are it's still pocket presence. With QB C, it's block, where is he?, block, or crap he's on the move!

QB B is, IMHO, the ultimate. Problem is, finding one is truly tough. A QB with the discipline of a pocket passer, and athleticism of a real runner is very rare. When a player has that level of athleticism it seems (to me) that ego starts getting in the way.

So - given the choice - give me A every time.

Unless I am way off-base, then trade down and take a flyer in the 4th or 5th.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

Shouldn't we wait to see if he's any good first? I like what I've heard about him, but...we have yet to even see him play NFL snaps to know if that will translate to the field.

As regards to Ice's point, I would also add that guys who rely on scrambling purely (like Chevy's option C) do more damage to their body in the short run, which limits their longevity, even within a season. It gets harder and harder to sustain that free-wheeling ability the deeper a player like that goes into their career. They also have to contend with narrower passing windows as their scrambling ability lessens. QBs like Brady have spent their whole career passing into those types of windows.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The bigger question from that tweet above isn't how many of them run, how often, or why, but rather... how many of them can pass accurately from the pocket to beat superior defenses in the playoffs?

The short list... Young, McNabb, McNair and Elway. The times they didn't win it all it was because they were on the worse team... not because of a missing magic clutch gene.

Yes & no. Elway **** the bed in most of his SB's and was carried through their wins if we're honest.

Running in and of itself is not a problem. Lamar Jackson is the modern equivalent of Michael Vick, extraordinarily dangerous with his feet, can pass using scheme against lesser opponents, but ultimately can't pass well against playoff defenses who can force him to pass from the pocket. Great (playoff) defenses are talented and well coached, they can force an opposing QB into uncomfortable positions and to beat them with his arm, to throw into tight windows accurately, when that time comes it's the QB who can and who is on the better TEAM who wins.

Lamar's a lot better than Vick. Both as a runner & passer. Probably the greatest rushing threat from a QB ever. And sure he has a way to go as a passer but he's shown a ton with a bottom 5-10 group of targets.

Also there aren't many QB'S that pass without scheme as you put it. Goff, Allen, Baker, Jimmy G all need scheme to help or carry them depending on the individual QB. So again save for 4-5 elite QB's, they all need scheme. Let's not forget our own Mac was helped out a ton by scheme - more than half his passes were RPO, behind the los or a screen.

Also Lamar's about to get paid.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

If Trey Lance turns out to be good, then no one will care about the move. It's worth it for a franchise QB, and success does wonders to answer a lot of questions. That said, if the reports that they were set to take Jones and then got cold feet AFTER giving up so much capital to move up, it shouldn't fill 9ers fans with a lot of confidence in Lynch's overall plan. but again, if Lance becomes a franchise guy, that kind of thing will be a footnote.

EDIT: The most interesting part of the move for me, is it was a bold move to trade up and take a guy who's considered more of a raw project. As a GM coming off of a 6-10 year, giving up a lot of assets for a move that may not make you better THIS year is a gamble. If the team underperforms this year and Lance gets his first starts in 2022, there's no guarantee Lynch is even around still to reap the rewards of this move.

Yes, I agree. Lance better be pretty good right out of the gate, or Lynch is kaput. If Lance has a slow start (or no start) and Mac lights it up then watch out. Of course this is all speculation on my part, but I loved what I saw of Mac, even before the draft (look it up). I had him rated as the number two QB after Wilson, who knows. There are also injuries to consider; rookie QBs don't know how to protect themselves and try to make too much out of broken plays.

I expect a great year for the Patriots. I think that they are just one player (a number one WR) away from a championship.

 

[Deus Irae]

I expect a great year for the Patriots. I think that they are just one player (a number one WR) away from a championship.

 

[Wozzy]

Yes & no. Elway **** the bed in most of his SB's and was carried through their wins if we're honest.

Nah, Elway just faced better teams early on and was surrounded by better teams late in his career. He had better defenses and offenses that were built around running the ball and controlling the clock.

Lamar's a lot better than Vick. Both as a runner & passer. Probably the greatest rushing threat from a QB ever. And sure he has a way to go as a passer but he's shown a ton with a bottom 5-10 group of targets.

They may as well be twins.

Also there aren't many QB'S that pass without scheme as you put it. Goff, Allen, Baker, Jimmy G all need scheme to help or carry them depending on the individual QB. So again save for 4-5 elite QB's, they all need scheme. Let's not forget our own Mac was helped out a ton by scheme - more than half his passes were RPO, behind the los or a screen.

Yes, every team/QB uses scheme, it doesn't detract from accurate vs inaccurate. Against the Seahawks and Jets last year Cam was great...lol. C'mon, the bottom line is in the playoffs the Raven's biggest detriment has been Jackson, his inability to pass from the pocket and his turnovers.

Also Lamar's about to get paid.

Milli Vanilli were the biggest pop group on the planet at one point, they didn't even sing their own songs... the Pet Rock was huge. Getting paid doesn't differentiate good from bad.

 

[Wozzy]

I expect a great year for the Patriots. I think that they are just one player (a number one WR) away from a championship.

QB... the one player they're short of is a QB.

They need that, health, the youth to progress and some bad luck to befall the best teams in the NFL like Tampa and KC.

They've never needed a #1 WR to win any of the six championships they did win.

 

[1960Pats]

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

My question was about the wear and tear of a running QB and how it affects his longevity. Not specifically injuries, though in the case of Luck it was.

You're "kick" is your infatuation with running QBs, something that may work well in the NCAA but has been a big flop in the NYFL so far. Your opinion on that is as far from factual as it can get.

 

[1960Pats]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Belichick has at least one more Lombardi up his sleeve. This defense could be a top 5 defense as early as THIS year. Adding Judon, Hightower & Van Noy is HUGE. Brought back Guy & Wise. Godchaux might be a huge addition to the run defense. Even Montravius Adams could be helpful. Henry Anderson was always a pain in the ass to play against when with the Jets. Uche and Dugger could make a big 2nd year jump. I think this defense is going to be really good.

Then we’ve added 4 PROVEN pass catchers to the offense. I still have high hopes for Asiasi. Meyers is a proven possession receiver. An excellent O-Line/run game. The missing piece in making this team a contender, is the QB position. Jones could quite possibly be the answer. Just like the 2001 Patriots, this team just needs a good game manager who can make big plays when needed. Just like the 2001 Patriots, this team has a good run game and solid defense. Whether Jones is the guy this year or next is the big question.

This is why my biggest concern is QB. Either Jones or Stidham has to step up.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

My question was about the wear and tear of a running QB and how it affects his longevity. Not specifically injuries, though in the case of Luck it was.

You're "kick" is your infatuation with running QBs, something that may work well in the NCAA but has been a big flop in the NYFL so far. Your opinion on that is as far from factual as it can get.

This is what you said ...
"That and the fact that running QB's don't last "

I also gave you multiple articles that explained they found nothing that indicates "running QB's" don't last. All you have is you're opinion. Which in this case, is wrong.

As for the second part of your sh¡t sandwhich I'm not infatuated with "running QB's", just more nonsense from you but w/e makes you feel better.

Also QB's that can run/are mobile absolutely have not been a flop at this level. You really are bad at this. I can tell you're older and just a casual fan. Just own it. We just lost to the Bills who have a QB that can hurt you just as much with his legs as his arm. It's a big part of Mahomes game. The last few 1st overall picks have been big time run threats. Not sure why that bothers you?

Nah, Elway just faced better teams early on and was surrounded by better teams late in his career. He had better defenses and offenses that were built around running the ball and controlling the clock.

They may as well be twins.

Yes, every team/QB uses scheme, it doesn't detract from accurate vs inaccurate. Against the Seahawks and Jets last year Cam was great...lol. C'mon, the bottom line is in the playoffs the Raven's biggest detriment has been Jackson, his inability to pass from the pocket and his turnovers.

Milli Vanilli were the biggest pop group on the planet at one point, they didn't even sing their own songs... the Pet Rock was huge. Getting paid doesn't differentiate good from bad.

Interesting, when it comes to Elway you bring up the quality of opponents and his own teams. When it comes to Jackson it's all on him. That's very common around here unfortunately. It's a team game up until you don't like the player - Jackson.

Jackson needs to play better but if actually watched the games you'd see his team sh¡t the bed.

I need to stop replying to guys that are casual and bitter. This is on me. One guy doesn't know what DVOA is and the other guy is Wozzy. If there's a informative post between the two of them I haven't seen it in years.

 

[Simpelton]

I'm real optimistic on Jones, and I love Reiss. But we've only seen him in teaching camps thus far, so maybe set the $1.79 aside and buy the thank you card in a few years.

It will be a good sign IMO if he struggles a bit early in real training camp. It will indicate to me that they're pushing him hard because they believe he could win the job. They won't hand it to him. Treat him like Leonidas in 300: Toss him out to the wolves in late July, and he starts when he comes back with a pelt.

Even if Mac doesn't start for us this year I definitely want to see him getting snaps against first team defenses. Push hiim in the deep end a bit and see how he handles it. Give him the chance to pleasantly surprise us.