Qb 2 & qb 3???

[convertedpatsfan]

Look at Rosenfels record compared to Hoyers. He has a 62.5% completion percentage, he's started games in four different seasons.

What about Rosenfels wouldn't be worth a fourth if you needed a backup with some experience?

What about Hoyers actual production would?

We tend to think the other 31 teams only want our players, but that's not the case.

Is there a statistic on trades involving UDFA QBs with 42 career passes?

Charlie Whitehurst had thrown 0 passes in an NFL game that counted yet merited a 3rd and a swap of 2nds. A review of the pre-season stats indicate Hoyer's are on par, if not better than Whitehurst's.

Drew Henson was a 6th-rounder who was traded for a 3rd-rounder despite not throwing a pass for 4 years. I agree he would have been drafted higher if he hadn't quit to play baseball, but the guy hadn't played in 4 years and still got traded for more than a 7th.

A.J. Feely had a slightly larger body of work, but I wouldn't necessarily call it better than Hoyer's. In 2002, he had the opportunity to start a few games because of injury and he completed under 56% of his passes for 6 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 75.4 QBR, yet the Dolphins gave up a 2nd-round pick.

Matt Hasselbeck had completed 13 of 29 passes for 2 TDs and 0 INTs in 2 seasons in Green Bay when Seattle traded a 3rd and swapped 1sts (letting GB climb 7 spots).

The UDFA seems to be what everyone's hung up on, because history has shown plenty of inexperienced QBs being traded for significantly more than a 7th.

Hoyer's certainly on par with, if not better than other developmental prospects taken in 2009 like Pat White, Stephen McGee, Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis, Keith Null, or Curtis Painter. If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, would that suddenly change his value to the rest of the league?

 

[Shelterdog]

If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, would that suddenly change his value to the rest of the league?

Yes, because being drafted that high would mean that he had more desirable attributes; he'd be taller or he'd have been more accurate at college or he'd have a stronger arm or something.

 

[crowell33]

Charlie Whitehurst had thrown 0 passes in an NFL game that counted yet merited a 3rd and a swap of 2nds. A review of the pre-season stats indicate Hoyer's are on par, if not better than Whitehurst's.

Drew Henson was a 6th-rounder who was traded for a 3rd-rounder despite not throwing a pass for 4 years. I agree he would have been drafted higher if he hadn't quit to play baseball, but the guy hadn't played in 4 years and still got traded for more than a 7th.

A.J. Feely had a slightly larger body of work, but I wouldn't necessarily call it better than Hoyer's. In 2002, he had the opportunity to start a few games because of injury and he completed under 56% of his passes for 6 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 75.4 QBR, yet the Dolphins gave up a 2nd-round pick.

Matt Hasselbeck had completed 13 of 29 passes for 2 TDs and 0 INTs in 2 seasons in Green Bay when Seattle traded a 3rd and swapped 1sts (letting GB climb 7 spots).

The UDFA seems to be what everyone's hung up on, because history has shown plenty of inexperienced QBs being traded for significantly more than a 7th.

Hoyer's certainly on par with, if not better than other developmental prospects taken in 2009 like Pat White, Stephen McGee, Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis, Keith Null, or Curtis Painter. If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, would that suddenly change his value to the rest of the league?

This is an awesome post. Great stats, facts and details.

So many posts on these boards break down into Mike Lombardi ( former director of Player personnel under Bill Belichick ) sucks, or the Bleacher report sucks, or
Pro Football Focus sucks, or the Boston Herald sucks, or Felger or Borges sucks, or Mel Kiper sucks, or Pro Football Weekly sucks, etc, etc, etc, nonsense.

Great to see an intelligent, well written post like this.

 

[Off The Grid]

Didn't the Lions offer us #33 for Cassel, straight up??

No.

They drafted Stafford #1.

Wrong answer.

The trade for Cassell happened well before the Draft.

 

[moosekill]

I'll keep typing shortcuts and abbreviations b/c it saves time.


I'll worry about my 3.5 GPA as a History/BA Major w/ 1 semester left

That's great, I'm really impressed, good luck finding a job with that major. If you want to be taken seriously here take some time and act like an adult, type in complete sentences and stop using the emoticons. Otherwise people will ignore you.

Seriously though, college is a lot more important than this stuff, study hard and finish school.

 

[TheSolderKing]

That's great, I'm really impressed, good luck finding a job with that major. If you want to be taken seriously here take some time and act like an adult, type in complete sentences and stop using the emoticons. Otherwise people will ignore you.

Seriously though, college is a lot more important than this stuff, study hard and finish school.

w/ my connections. It will be no problem.


I don't need luck.

Hell I could even teach prep if I wanted to.

I am a topnotch writer and a talented orator (fixed) do not begrudge my attributes.


I could even get into writing grants

It's all about who u know. Cousins are lawyers my Prep Headmaster and I are close.

go shoot a moose and stop missing me w/ idiot insults oh noes alliteration

you underestimate me and it is ur great peccadillo

your false bravado is blinding you and you turn everything into insult.


just b/c u oppose my thinking u h8

H8ers HATE

 

[Deus Irae]

I am a top notch writer and a talented do not begrudge my attributes.

 

[Froob]

It's not like Hoyer would be cheap though. Any team trading for him with the plan of him being their starter (which I don't see happening this offseason) is going to have to give him starter money as part of the trade.

I doubt it, assuming there's a franchise tag, why give an unproven qb a big contract? At least let him play out this year. I think Hoyer can be a starter but I don't think he's done enough for teams to give a 2nd. If pats can get a 3rd or 4th they should probably just take it. Hoyer has one year left on his contract doesn't he?

 

[TheSolderKing]

I am a topnotch writer and a talented orator (fixed) do not begrudge my attributes/abilities.


IDC to edit it is a forum I rarely if ever proof read.



typos in a forum are not typos on an essay. It truly is different world of caring.

 

[RayClay]

..

Look, here's how it works. If you're an NFL GM and you think Hoyer is great and everyone else will bid him up otherwise, you offer a 1st round pick and that's what he's worth.

Whatever a team can get for him is, defacto, his market value.

If you truly believe that due to his college career and his NFL body of work, he is worth far more than the multitude of highly considered college players and NFL experienced backups and free agents available for nothing, you offer a second or third.

Hopefully, you have gauged the market among other GMs who are so tuned in on Hoyer, they can't risk offering less than a 2/3 because of the frenzy his availability will cause.

The thing is, I like Hoyer. Unlike most of the people in football, I've actually seen him play and know what his name is.

If you think he's worth a 2, I don't know the basis, in a market sense.

If you're a GM and think you have to spend a 2/3, then he's worth it, by definition. The only thing that makes him worth a draft pick, is someone willing to spend it.

 

[Deus Irae]

I am a topnotch writer and a talented orator (fixed) do not begrudge my attributes/abilities.

 

[Sciz]

I am a topnotch writer and a talented orator (fixed) do not begrudge my attributes/abilities.


IDC to edit it is a forum I rarely if ever proof read.



typos in a forum are not typos on an essay. It truly is different world of caring.

We're not insulting your posts to call you dumb; we're insulting your posts so you make them better. We don't want you to tell us that you're smart; we want you to show us that you're smart.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Yes, because being drafted that high would mean that he had more desirable attributes; he'd be taller or he'd have been more accurate at college or he'd have a stronger arm or something.

In terms of measurables, most scouting reports said Hoyer had enough height, arm, and accuracy. He had a solid 2007 season with 20 TDs vs. 11 INTs. He struggled heavily in 2008, though part of that was due to the loss of his #1 WR and TE being drafted.

Basically, he's a late-round developmental QB who actually developed. Do you really think Pat White in the 2nd or Curtis Painter in the 6th are superior QB prospects compared to the UDFA Hoyer simply because of their draft position two years ago? Two years later, I don't care that Hoyer was undrafted, just like two years after Brady took the starting job, I didn't care that he was drafted in the 6th round.

Look, here's how it works. If you're an NFL GM and you think Hoyer is great and everyone else will bid him up otherwise, you offer a 1st round pick and that's what he's worth.

Whatever a team can get for him is, defacto, his market value.

If you truly believe that due to his college career and his NFL body of work, he is worth far more than the multitude of highly considered college players and NFL experienced backups and free agents available for nothing, you offer a second or third.

Hopefully, you have gauged the market among other GMs who are so tuned in on Hoyer, they can't risk offering less than a 2/3 because of the frenzy his availability will cause.

The thing is, I like Hoyer. Unlike most of the people in football, I've actually seen him play and know what his name is.

If you think he's worth a 2, I don't know the basis, in a market sense.

If you're a GM and think you have to spend a 2/3, then he's worth it, by definition. The only thing that makes him worth a draft pick, is someone willing to spend it.

I agree, the market value is simply what a team is willing to pay. And what that price is depends on a ton of factors, and we can't just look at a price book and point out what he's worth.

While I don't think he's worth a 2, I really don't think he's worth a 7 either. And if I were to guess, it'd be closer to the 2 than the 7, like a 3rd or 4th combined with another pick. But the 7th is a bit of an insult to the guy.

 

[Ring 6]

Wrong answer.

The trade for Cassell happened well before the Draft.

So? They knew they wanted him long before.

 

[RayClay]

In terms of measurables, most scouting reports said Hoyer had enough height, arm, and accuracy. He had a solid 2007 season with 20 TDs vs. 11 INTs. He struggled heavily in 2008, though part of that was due to the loss of his #1 WR and TE being drafted.

Basically, he's a late-round developmental QB who actually developed. Do you really think Pat White in the 2nd or Curtis Painter in the 6th are superior QB prospects compared to the UDFA Hoyer simply because of their draft position two years ago? Two years later, I don't care that Hoyer was undrafted, just like two years after Brady took the starting job, I didn't care that he was drafted in the 6th round.



I agree, the market value is simply what a team is willing to pay. And what that price is depends on a ton of factors, and we can't just look at a price book and point out what he's worth.

While I don't think he's worth a 2, I really don't think he's worth a 7 either. And if I were to guess, it'd be closer to the 2 than the 7, like a 3rd or 4th combined with another pick. But the 7th is a bit of an insult to the guy.

I don't think it's an insult. It means a totally unknown guy who has never had to perform in a meaningful situation has somehow shown enough that a team would give up a pick, afraid someone would pick him up.

Do you think the 31 other teams have any book at all on Hoyer? How would they?

Cassell stepped in and almost took the team to the playoffs, had some huge games and made some pressure plays.

I'm not saying other teams don't like him, I'm saying they likely might or moght not know his name. That's not insulting him, that's just the plain fact of a FA QB who never gets anything but mopup time.

You need to put yourself in the shoes of other GMs, in other divisions with tons of better known players to evaluate.

Because he's on the Pats, he might get claimed on waivers, with the same body of work on another team, probably not.
That has nothing to do with his ability and everything to do with his visibility.

Here's a 2010 preseason PFW article on backup QBs. Hoyer hasn't got any big exposure since then.

28. Brian Hoyer / Patriots (zero starts; career TD-interception ratio 0-0)

The Pats think he has some Matt Cassel-like skills, but it's hard to tell based on his limited snaps mopping up. He looked pretty good the first half of the preseason, is smart, hardworking and has Tom Brady-like intangibles.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Rating the backup quarterbacks

 

[Shelterdog]

In terms of measurables, most scouting reports said Hoyer had enough height, arm, and accuracy. He had a solid 2007 season with 20 TDs vs. 11 INTs. He struggled heavily in 2008, though part of that was due to the loss of his #1 WR and TE being drafted.

Basically, he's a late-round developmental QB who actually developed. Do you really think Pat White in the 2nd or Curtis Painter in the 6th are superior QB prospects compared to the UDFA Hoyer simply because of their draft position two years ago? Two years later, I don't care that Hoyer was undrafted, just like two years after Brady took the starting job, I didn't care that he was drafted in the 6th round.

First of all, you're just wrong on what scouting reports said about his height (he's 6'1 1/2"), arm and accuracy (in the 50s in college). If he had the arm/height/accuracy he would have gotten drafted.

Second, unlike Brady or Cassel, it's hard to say he's much better than the college player who wasn't good enough to merit a high pick because he hasn't actually gotten on a field. Until you show you're better (or worse) than the player you were in college you can't count on teams to trust that you did in fact get a lot better.

 

[crowell33]

First of all, you're just wrong on what scouting reports said about his height (he's 6'1 1/2"), arm and accuracy (in the 50s in college). If he had the arm/height/accuracy he would have gotten drafted.

Second, unlike Brady or Cassel, it's hard to say he's much better than the college player who wasn't good enough to merit a high pick because he hasn't actually gotten on a field. Until you show you're better (or worse) than the player you were in college you can't count on teams to trust that you did in fact get a lot better.

Hoyer measured 6'2" 215 pre draft. Also, threw for a 59.3% completion rate his junior year before losing his #1 receiver and starting TE his senior year.

 

[Off The Grid]

So? They knew they wanted him long before.

I guess I'm in way over my head, here.

I didn't know I was dealing with a mind reader.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Lets take a step back and try and figure where he COULD play. I mean, you dont trade a 2nd for the guy unless you want him to START. The rookie on the Cardinals has more experience than Hoyer, shoot, every BACKUP on every bad team has more experience. More than any position QB is valued by past performance, see Donovan McNabb. Whitehurst aside, Hoyer has less than anyone ever, right?
And when did TB become a coach?? What I know of him is that he works hard on his own game, is married to a HOT model and has kids on 2 coasts....the guy hasnt the time to teach anyone anything, thats not his job. Can guys LEARN from him? Sure, but they will learn what works for TB not what works for them. Can they translate that to themselves and make it work? Maybe, but just because Kurt Warner bagged groceries doesnt mean I'm looking for my QB at Stop & Shop. There is a lot of work that goes into scouting these players. Each team has different needs and different systems, the odds of Hoyer being THE guy and that he fits their system....slim. It does help if your GM goes to the other team and remodels the frachise to accomidate. That doesnt happen every day either. There are just way too many problems with too many moving pieces for any such trade to occur this year. We can hope he shows us something sometime not at TB's expense.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I don't think it's an insult. It means a totally unknown guy who has never had to perform in a meaningful situation has somehow shown enough that a team would give up a pick, afraid someone would pick him up.

Do you think the 31 other teams have any book at all on Hoyer? How would they?

Cassell stepped in and almost took the team to the playoffs, had some huge games and made some pressure plays.

I'm not saying other teams don't like him, I'm saying they likely might or moght not know his name. That's not insulting him, that's just the plain fact of a FA QB who never gets anything but mopup time.

You need to put yourself in the shoes of other GMs, in other divisions with tons of better known players to evaluate.

Because he's on the Pats, he might get claimed on waivers, with the same body of work on another team, probably not.
That has nothing to do with his ability and everything to do with his visibility.

Here's a 2010 preseason PFW article on backup QBs. Hoyer hasn't got any big exposure since then.


ProFootballWeekly.com - Rating the backup quarterbacks

I'm not disagreeing about the lack of playing time, or that he's unproven.

I'm just saying teams have given up way more than a 7th for QBs who have done even less than him.

Those 42 garbage time passes from Hoyer are 13 more than Whitehurst, Henson, and Hasselbeck combined, before they were all traded for 3rds.

First of all, you're just wrong on what scouting reports said about his height (he's 6'1 1/2"), arm and accuracy (in the 50s in college). If he had the arm/height/accuracy he would have gotten drafted.

Second, unlike Brady or Cassel, it's hard to say he's much better than the college player who wasn't good enough to merit a high pick because he hasn't actually gotten on a field. Until you show you're better (or worse) than the player you were in college you can't count on teams to trust that you did in fact get a lot better.

Crowell covered the first point quite well.

As for the second, again, I understand what you're saying. But history shows teams lose their minds for QBs. You can write up a huge novel about why teams won't trade a decent pick for an unproven guy, but like any novel, it'll be fiction.

I'm not trying to convince you of this. I'm telling you it has happened already. Numerous times. It's not impossible if it's been done several times.