Getting a Top 15 QB - Free Agency Or The Draft -

[mgteich]

DRAFT
50-50 to get a QB, and would need to use considerable draft resources
If the QB doesn't work out after 3 years, rinse and repeat.

FREE AGENCY
pay 35-40M per year
If the QB doesn't work out, cut in two years, rinse and repeat

THOUGHTS
1) Using the draft includes the first lost year since few QB's are ready to play for Game One.
2) Depending on where we pick, draft capital can be very expensive.
3) Using free agency has the advantage of the team knowing the QB before the choice is made.

THIS YEAR
For me, the issue is cost. However, Mayfield provides an opportunity to be a playoff contender in Year One, instead of waiting for a draftee to develop.
With even normal contract structure, we have enough cap money and draft capital to fill our needs (and then upgrade some more next year).

 

[Ivan]

Mayfield would chew up 35 million a year against their cap for the next 4 years. That’s over 100 million that could have been spent on other players when contrasted with the rookie QB. And he’s a mediocre QB.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

DRAFT
50-50 to get a QB, and would need to use considerable draft resources
If the QB doesn't work out after 3 years, rinse and repeat.

FREE AGENCY
pay 35-40M per year
If the QB doesn't work out, cut in two years, rinse and repeat

THOUGHTS
1) Using the draft includes the first lost year since few QB's are ready to play for Game One.
2) Depending on where we pick, draft capital can be very expensive.
3) Using free agency has the advantage of the team knowing the QB before the choice is made.

THIS YEAR
For me, the issue is cost. However, Mayfield provides an opportunity to be a playoff contender in Year One, instead of waiting for a draftee to develop.
With even normal contract structure, we have enough cap money and draft capital to fill our needs (and then upgrade some more next year).

Mayfield will be a bust signing if we don’t get elite wr and better OT

 

[slash83]

I don’t understand at all why people are making this so complicated. You have the 3rd pick, you’re desperate for a QB with star potential. Rookie QB is going to be cheap, why go spend 30-35 million on Cousins or Baker, we aren’t contending for a SB this, not next year either. Neither of them are even all that, ones old coming off a frekin torn Achilles the other has bounced around majority of his career but had a decently good last year now all of a sudden he’s a must have.

It’s so simple but people for some reason are overthinking this way too much.

 

[Aussie Patriot]

I don’t understand at all why people are making this so complicated.

Yep. Strong quarter back draft with 3 top qb's projected to go top 3.

It's fallen in our lap, don't overthink it or get greedy.

 

[KCSVEN]

2 major issues
-I think you want a top 10 QB, not top 15.
-PFF had Mayfield as the 19th best QB. He's not a top 15 QB.

You might argue him into the 15th spot but If you go thru the list and stats, he's ABSOLUTELY NOT a top 15 QB.

Cousins probably has been but he's at the end of his career coming off an injury so if he works out, a big IF, you have to get another QB in 2 years when you might not be in a position to draft one.

Any top 10-15 QB thru free agency like Brady and Cousins, are short term, put you over the top type moves. Getting a franchise QB for the next 5+ years thru free agency is just NOT realistically going to happen, yes, a Drew Brees happened once but striking lightning like that again does not seem plausible.

So really there is only 1 plausible scenario of getting a top 15 QB-draft 1.

 

[Ivan]

Mayfield will be a bust signing if we don’t get elite wr and better OT

If the goal is to be one of the top teams in the league then Mayfield will be a bust signing no matter who you get him.

 

[Ivan]

2 major issues
-I think you want a top 10 QB, not top 15.
-PFF had Mayfield as the 19th best QB. He's not a top 15 QB.

You might argue him into the 15th spot but If you go thru the list and stats, he's ABSOLUTELY NOT a top 15 QB.

Cousins probably has been but he's at the end of his career coming off an injury so if he works out, a big IF, you have to get another QB in 2 years when you might not be in a position to draft one.

Any top 10-15 QB thru free agency like Brady and Cousins, are short term, put you over the top type moves. Getting a franchise QB for the next 5+ years thru free agency is just NOT realistically going to happen, yes, a Drew Brees happened once but striking lightning like that again does not seem plausible.

So really there is only 1 plausible scenario of getting a top 15 QB-draft 1.

Agree completely. To be honest I’m really surprised at how many here are shooting for total mediocrity. I never thought this was a fan base that wanted Playoff Participant banners, I thought it was one that wanted Lombardi’s. They are proving me wrong.

 

[Ivan]

I don’t understand at all why people are making this so complicated. You have the 3rd pick, you’re desperate for a QB with star potential. Rookie QB is going to be cheap, why go spend 30-35 million on Cousins or Baker, we aren’t contending for a SB this, not next year either. Neither of them are even all that, ones old coming off a frekin torn Achilles the other has bounced around majority of his career but had a decently good last year now all of a sudden he’s a must have.

It’s so simple but people for some reason are overthinking this way too much.

Especially when they can still get their starting tackle or a really good WR, at #34, and move up into the 2nd round with their 3rd pick to fill the other need.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I don't understand why this is an either/or conversation. We can both sign a QB vet for two years and draft a QB at 3. What else are we doing with the money if not trying to improve the team now? If the vet stinks it up, you eat the money and switch to the rookie sooner. If the vet plays well, you stay with the vet or trade him. Why shoot yourself in the foot by saying, we're all in with an unproven rookie QB when we have the resources not to? Good resource management is giving yourself multiple ways to win.

"But all that money!" seems to be the major complaint, even though it's just Bob's money.

Look at this FA class. We're probably not finding a great WR or OT with the money. We can spend it all on defense and have a top 5 defense with an offense that will waste it this year and be over the hill by the time the rookie is ready to make a run in 2-3 years.

 

[jdlboot14]

If it's really about winning and competing immediately, then you get a FA QB.
The one that makes the most sense is Baker. He won't cost the ridiculous money others prima donnas are asking.
Baker is a winner, a leader, a ferocious competitor, and has confidence that we haven't had in this building since Brady left.

Then, use #3 on MHJ, and still draft a guy like Nix at 35 (if he's there) - to give him 2-3 years to prep behind Baker.
OR - trade down to ~8 and get your franchise LT & a comparable #1WR in the bottom 1st round.

Either way, that is a better road to relevance and giving this new GM/Coaching regime a chance.
If they draft a QB at 3 and let him start wk 1 - it won't go well.

 

[stinkypete]

The question is, do you want a top 15 QB or a championship level QB. Cousins, Mayfield, Fields and Wilson theoretically could put up top 15 numbers, but they're not going to get you more than one playoff win in any year. The draft is the only way, at least this off season, to get a shot at a guy who can put you over the top.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Paying baker or cousins is a great way to put us into mediocre purgatory for more years to come. 9-10 wins each year and a first round playoff exit with no top 10 picks or cap room to grab a real difference maker and move to the next level.

Take a swing at top notch qb talent and use the cap room and the rest of your picks to build a good team around qb. Really hard to screw this up but paying a mediocre qb or trading down for Justin fields are 2 surefire ways to guarantee prolonging our playoff win drought.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Paying Baker Mayfield $35m a year is almost worse than just sucking and winning 4 games, the worst thing you can do in the NFL is trap yourself into a middling highly paid quarterback and float around .500 without ever being a contender and no way to get a true top 10 quarterback because you're winning 7-9 games.

 

[50-yard-line]

Paying Baker Mayfield $35m a year is almost worse than just sucking and winning 4 games, the worst thing you can do in the NFL is trap yourself into a middling highly paid quarterback and float around .500 without ever being a contender and no way to get a true top 10 quarterback because you're winning 7-9 games.

This is where we disagree. I want to see a team that has a chance to win every game they play and is, you know, watchable.

NFL.com lists Mayfield in the top 15 (14), but who above him are you looking to get?

So much of a QB’s rating depends on the cast and scheme around him. There are very few QBs you can just say are WAY better than the “good” starters, and three of them, statistically, have shown themselves to be major choke artists Lamar,Dak,Josh).

IF you believe THE GUY is there at 3, take him. If you don’t get a “good” QB in here, build around him, and compete.

I get the idea that you need a unicorn! But take Brady and Mahomes out of the equation, and really, the differences between the good and the better are minor.

A few more top five draft picks means a few more unwatchable seasons. No thanks, I’m old.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

This is where we disagree. I want to see a team that has a chance to win every game they play and is, you know, watchable.

NFL.com lists Mayfield in the top 15 (14), but who above him are you looking to get?

So much of a QB’s rating depends on the cast and scheme around him. There are very few QBs you can just say are WAY better than the “good” starters, and three of them, statistically, have shown themselves to be major choke artists Lamar,Dak,Josh).

IF you believe THE GUY is there at 3, take him. If you don’t get a “good” QB in here, build around him, and compete.

I get the idea that you need a unicorn! But take Brady and Mahomes out of the equation, and really, the differences between the good and the better are minor.

A few more top five draft picks means a few more unwatchable seasons. No thanks, I’m old.

I guess i just view Baker Mayfield as closer to the 25th best QB than the 15th, he had an outlier season on his 4th team with a good roster.

I think there's a chance you get Cleveland/Carolina Mayfield for 35m, this would be a better plan if we were picking 7th or 8th and didn't really have a choice but to reach for a 2nd tier QB or pay Mayfield/Cousins but picking 3rd having 100m of cap space and ending up with Baker Mayfield as your quarterback seems like you've botched it to me.

Baker Mayfield would be more suited to a win now roster with a disasterous QB like the 2023 Jets, not this Pats team.

 

[Ross12]

I would say trust your evaluators.

If you think both Maye and Daniels (or maybe McCarthy) are worth the 3rd pick, draft him and sign a cheap veteran. If you aren’t sold and think they might just be fine or might bust outright, trade the pick for future 1sts to another team and sign Baker.

If you’re right in either scenario you’re golden. In scenario A, you have a great QB on a cheap rookie deal. In scenario B, you are paying a veteran QB a big salary but you also got the 1st round picks of the team that just drafted a bad QB and as such in all likelihood they won’t end with a very good record, so you’ll be drafting high in the next year or two thanks to that, plus your own first rounder, which will help build a strong team up around Baker. He is still in his 20s so you can get a lot of time out of him still.

 

[slash83]

I’d rather surround Mac with talent while he’s cheap and give it a go rather than spend 35 million on a QB who’s bounced around his entire career.

 

[moosekill]

If we had Brisett last year instead of Jones Zappe what would our record have been? 500? 9-8, 8-9, 10-7. 7-10, those are the questions you ask. If Gonzales and Judon weren’t injured would we have won 2 more games, three more? The people saying this team is years away are wrong. Bringing in a good qb and using the draft to get o line and wr help should push us into playoff contention this year. So then you ask, how best do we do all three? Brisett and Maye with an o lineman 2nd? Brisett Harrison an o lineman and then Nix or whomever? Or substitute Mayfield, he just chews up your resources to get more help. It depends how you value him vs Brisett. Should be a fun spring summer

 

[moosekill]

I’d rather surround Mac with talent while he’s cheap and give it a go rather than spend 35 million on a QB who’s bounced around his entire career.

Mac sucks. He really really sucks. The wr’s sucked because he sucks. This is the definition of stupidity.