How Would You Feel If We Traded Down?

[shirtsleeve]

With all of the noise everyone here is making about #21, how would you feel if the team traded out of the first round? I personally would be thrilled.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Dang! I'm glad you clarified that, Down has been one of our best and I'd hate to lose someone like him.

Trading down has been wildly popular with many looking greedily at the talent pool in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think we'd all love to but it may be tough going to find a partner. Possibly the Jets or Colts if they want to move up for one of the RB but it's unlikely at best.

 

[IcyPatriot]

If you have a team of starters in a draft with enough UPSIDE players then by all means trade down is the way to go.

However, and i suspected this last year and I hope i am wrong...how many teams are willing to trade with us??? Belichick moved around very little last year and that was puzzling...I don't think any teams trust us enough anymore...can you blame them???

 

[shirtsleeve]

If you have a team of starters in a draft with enough UPSIDE players then by all means trade down is the way to go.

However, and i suspected this last year and I hope i am wrong...how many teams are willing to trade with us??? Belichick moved around very little last year and that was puzzling...I don't think any teams trust us enough anymore...can you blame them???

Hmm..you might be right there. But there just doesn't seem to be the value to make one go wow in the bottom of the first.
REAL First Round talent, ya know, possible probowlers as rookies:
WR? MAYBE two total, maybe none
RB? 1
OL 1
DL 1, maybe 2
QB 3, but we dont need a starter
LB 1
DB 1
TE 1

Thats 12, counting high. Everyone else looks like second rounders to me. I'd hate to see the Pats pay first round money for second round talent.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Dang! I'm glad you clarified that, Down has been one of our best and I'd hate to lose someone like him..

Yeah, Touch and First are a couple of my favorite offensive players, and Fourth is my favorite defensive one!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If you have a team of starters in a draft with enough UPSIDE players then by all means trade down is the way to go.

However, and i suspected this last year and I hope i am wrong...how many teams are willing to trade with us??? Belichick moved around very little last year and that was puzzling...I don't think any teams trust us enough anymore...can you blame them???

Dan Shanoff of the Daily Quickie summed it up last off-season, when he basically asked why any GM in his right mind would ever trade with the Pats; the de facto assumption has to be that the Pats think they'll come out ahead on any trade they make.

I for one think that if the Pats trade down, they won't trade back up (e.g., 21 -> 29 -> 26), either because they'll feel they don't need to, or no one else will let them trade back up.

 

[spidey2559]

And with the 21st pick.....the New York Jets select....

Dan Shanoff of the Daily Quickie summed it up last off-season, when he basically asked why any GM in his right mind would ever trade with the Pats; the de facto assumption has to be that the Pats think they'll come out ahead on any trade they make.

I for one think that if the Pats trade down, they won't trade back up (e.g., 21 -> 29 -> 26), either because they'll feel they don't need to, or no one else will let them trade back up.

I mentioned this scenario in one of the other posts...The Jets have the 2nd round(35) and 2 3rd rounders (71, 97). The Pats trading no. 1 for their #2 and most likely their latter 3rd round pick, it's a win-win for both sides.

Jets get 3 first rounders and 4 picks in the first 70 selections. Mangini and Tannebaum gets a boost in the media poll and keeps NY fans quiet until their first loss of the season.

Patriots get 2 2nd's(35, 52) 3 3rd's(75, 86, 97). 5 quality picks within the first 100 selections. All without the 1st round salary tag price. Let's say that only two out of the 5 selections make out to be solid starters....that's two more starters for the future than we have now.

It could be a lose-lose if...

The 3 first rounders for the Jets are as bad or worse than when the Jets drafted Fergurson. Their already salary cap hell got a whole lot worse with 3 first round salary price tags on their payroll..

It's really hard to see a lose situation for the Pats, no matter how you slice it. What really is the difference from the 21st pick compared to the 35th?? I guess we'll see....

 

[OhExaulted1]

Patriots get 2 2nd's(35, 52) 3 3rd's(75, 86, 97). 5 quality picks within the first 100 selections. All without the 1st round salary tag price. Let's say that only two out of the 5 selections make out to be solid starters....that's two more starters for the future than we have now.

Pick #97 is a Comp pick, and therefore untradeable.

I suppose it would be plausible for them to swap 21 & 29 with a 4th this year and next thrown in. Something like that.

http://www.theredzone.org/2005/draft/draftvaluechart.asp

 

[spidey2559]

Patriots get 2 2nd's(35, 52) 3 3rd's(75, 86, 97). 5 quality picks within the first 100 selections. All without the 1st round salary tag price. Let's say that only two out of the 5 selections make out to be solid starters....that's two more starters for the future than we have now.

Pick #97 is a Comp pick, and therefore untradeable.

I suppose it would be plausible for them to swap 21 & 29 with a 4th this year and next thrown in. Something like that.

http://www.theredzone.org/2005/draft/draftvaluechart.asp

Point well taken, oh, exaulted one. ;-) Ok, so that scenario wouldn't work. And I don't see the Jets giving up a high third and second...

The philosophy in my thinking is simply to get out of the 1st round and all of the financial and fanatical implications that goes with it.

This year, as estimated by Kiper, is a year full of second-tier players....all the way up to the 4th round. This season favors a Pioli-Belichik philosophy of bargain rather than the elite-blue chip approach.

I simply don't see that much of a drop off from the 1st to the second round...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Yeah, Touch and First are a couple of my favorite offensive players, and Fourth is my favorite defensive one!

Third Base!

 

[Feep_FLA]

Put me in the camp to trade down, but only if its yields a low second round this year. Otherwise its a wasted trade. I'd give up 21 for a low second this year and a 2rd or 3rd next year. Will a team trade with them in that scenario? Never underestimate stupidity........ When the dust clears I think we'll be taking a solid player at 21, but if a trade is worked out I won't be surprised, shocked or upset.

 

[mgteich]

I'm fine with a trade down (although up is as likely) as long it isn't out of the first. The patriots value the 5th year.

 

[flutie2phelan]

...how many teams are willing to trade with us??? Belichick moved around very little last year and that was puzzling...I don't think any teams trust us enough anymore...can you blame them???

In another thread i am on record as predicting a 14-minute pause ... while we encourage a trade down ... before picking at 21.

Many remarks in this thread stem from faulty knowledge of markets in general, and the draft pick market in particular.
EVERYONE who either buys or sells in any kind of market ... comes out of every deal satisfied.
If one is not satisfied with the terms of a free exchange ... then s/he doesn't do it.
Whoever buys a stock thinks he knows better than the seller how its price will perform in the future - that it is about to rise ...
while the seller of that same stock is confident that the price is about to drop.
Differing opinions is essential for any activity to occur in the marketplace.
And adjusting the pressure of buying and selling interests is why prices rise or fall ... why they fluctuate.

Secondly, NFL coaches and GMs are people of overwhelming self-confidence.
Which of them is going to say to himself, "Damn! That's Belioli on the phone.
That bustard is so much smarter than me. Whatever he has to say, I'm not listening to him."

 

[mgteich]

Are you a jets fan? If, I say if, the patriots were trading for #35, they would require the higher 3rd, and a 6th one way or the other depending on how the draft was going.

As I have said, I think it is more likely that the patriots trade up into the first, perhaps after trading down. For example, we could trade down to about #29, picking up a low third. We could then trade our top 3rd and 2nd to move into the first. We would then have two firsts, still have two thirds, two fourths and a top fifth. Bottom line, I would rather have 2 firsts (for 5 years each) than our current first and second. I also ended up moving down in the third since our 1st and 2nd aren't quite enough for two firsts.

I mentioned this scenario in one of the other posts...The Jets have the 2nd round(35) and 2 3rd rounders (71, 97). The Pats trading no. 1 for their #2 and most likely their latter 3rd round pick, it's a win-win for both sides.

 

[big mike]

I'd be very disappointed if we traded all the way out of round 1.

Those of you who think we should trade out of round 1 - who are you thinking we'd end up taking at LB? Do you guys realize that there will likely be 5+ LBs taken between picks 22 and 32? The sweet spot for taking an LB this year is likely to be in the early 20s. Not many will be taken before then - Hawk will, Miami and Dallas are likely to take OLBs before 21, but then there will be several good candidates left at 21. If we trade out of the first round, by the time whatever pick in the 2nd we get comes up, there will likely be anywhere from 5 to perhaps 7 or 8 more LBs taken from where we were in the first. So - who do you see us getting who can start at LB as a rookie?

Personally, I think we either take an LB candidate in round 1 (Lawson, Carpenter, Greenway, or Demeco Ryans I see as the most likely options - Hawk, Sims, and Wimbley will probably be taken by GB, Miami, and Dallas before we pick - if another team ahead of us takes an LB, then likely Greenway will be taken also). If we stay at 21 we would be able to take one of those top LB candidates - Lawson, Greenway (possibly), Ryans, Carpenter, etc.. If we trade to round 2 - they will almost certainly all be gone in the late first round, as the Giants, Panthers, Steelers, and a few other teams will be going LB - both because of team need, and because that's where the best value will be.

The only option other than us taking an LB in round 1 I could go for is drafting DeAngelo Williams. But, then we're still presented with the issue of who to get at LB. I'd think that then we'd look at one of the lesser tier DE-OLB tweeners, like Ryan LaCasse, who we could get later on day 1 - although he's been shooting up draft boards also since posting a 4.46 40 time. We could take Kai Parham in round 3 perhaps as someone who could maybe start at ILB early in the season, but he's somewhat of a questionmark.

 

[jct]

My trade scenario is if D. Williams is available at 21 trade to INDY for the 30 and 62. They NEED him. He is small and will be hurt a lot.
We still get value at 30 (The LB or RB who falls to us) and a bonus guy at 62.
(Or trade material to move up to the top of the 2nd round).
In the perfect world we snatch Greenway at 24.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

I want Kiwanuka in a Pats uni. BEAST

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm not all that high on Lendale White, but if he's someone the Pats want I think we can trade down and still get him.

 

[mcbee]

Dan Shanoff of the Daily Quickie summed it up last off-season, when he basically asked why any GM in his right mind would ever trade with the Pats; the de facto assumption has to be that the Pats think they'll come out ahead on any trade they make.

I for one think that if the Pats trade down, they won't trade back up (e.g., 21 -> 29 -> 26), either because they'll feel they don't need to, or no one else will let them trade back up.

Doesn't make sense. The Pats come out ahead, because of the PLAYERS they pick. Not because they are magically ripping off people in trades. They don't trade a 3 and a 4 for a 1 for example. It just looks like they took advantage of people if the Pats guy is Eugene Wilson, say and the other team picked a bust.

Anyway, not all of the Patsies trades win. What about Bethel Johnson? Big 0 from him.