What kind of return can we get for trading the the 3rd pick?

[Headcase]

After the back and forth by Kraft/BB, I have no doubt Kraft will want to prove something and spend during FA.

The Bengals are franchising Higgins anyway, but I'm sure we're spending.

I hope he doesn't need to spend to just prove a point, that would be counterproductive to the long term build of the team....let the Football guys make the decisions, just write the damn checks.

 

[Family]

Which approach are you referring to when you say, "I'm sure we're spending"?

Big name, big bonus.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I am not sure that McCarthy is the answer, but there are a bunch of evalutors that like him. If we draft him and let him sit for a year and fill out, he might grow into a very good QB.

In the THIRD Round or later only.

If you're not drafting a top tier QB in the 1st round you're better off taking a stud WR such as Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, or Odunze.

You can take your punt on a bench warmer/developmental QB in the 3rd round or later.

Also don't forget that Left Tackle is a HUGE need! We need to get the best tackle we can find in round 2 or maybe trade back up into the 1st to get him.

The key point to remember is that the Patriots MUST secure blue chip talent with their Day 1 draft picks.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

In the THIRD Round or later only.

If you're not drafting a top tier QB in the 1st round you're better off taking a stud WR such as Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, or Odunze.

You can take your punt on a bench warmer/developmental QB in the 3rd round or later.

Also don't forget that Left Tackle is a HUGE need! We need to get the best tackle we can find in round 2 or maybe trade back up into the 1st to get him.

The key point to remember is that the Patriots MUST secure blue chip talent with their Day 1 draft picks.

Mahomes was the #10 pick in the first round and sat his first year. I would call that a blue chip talent. McCarthy at #12 could be the same. McCarthy in R3 is absurd.

 

[DarrylS]

After the '21 draft debacle regarding QB's (Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones) I would prefer the draft capital.. there are too many holes and that pick is to valuable. Trade back with Atlanta and get additional picks then draft the best LT available at #7.
The Free Agent $$$ pool can only attract so many players and draft picks have better value.

 

[DW Toys]

Have to agree Cousin.
Great Valentines breakfast of smoked sausage and cheese scrambled eggs with brioche toast with wild blueberry jam, Cranberry pomegranate juice and Dark hot Chocolate. It cost me flowers and a card.

Only 49% chance those three top QB kids will make their second contract and $51% that they won't.

Note-No #1-#3 picks in this category.

Patrick Mahomes - #10

Josh Allen - #7

Justin Herbert - #6

Lamar Jackson - #32

Jalen Hurts - #53

Dak Prescott - #135

Aaron Rodgers - #24

Tua Tagovailoa - #5

Split with Mills so Deshaun Watson - #12

Kirk Cousins - #102

Ryan Tannehill - #8

Russell Wilson - #75

Geno Smith - #39

Daniel Jones - #6

Justin Fields - #11

Might not qualify but Jimmy Garropolo - #62

Throw in Davis Mills - #67

Derek Carr -#36

Here's us with Mac Jones - #15

Kenny Pickett - #20


Get a couple high quality picks by trading down and yes although not totally convinced , go Fields for a year to see if he is still improving. He has NFL Tape and the other holy three ........nyet!

If Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow are the twins to the Holy three , then take a QB at #3. Nope.

Sleepers in this Draft to move up might be the Steelers. How about George Pickens, 200lbs, 6'2" and 4.4 speed who played with a QB situation as bad as ours. He's 23 years old. Pick #20, pick #51 in the second and 2025 1st Rounder.

Pickens 2023 stats

63 Catches, 1,140 Yards,18.1 Average per catch, 5 TDs

OK Hold your nose and take Fields at the third round but you have a #20 for an OT or WR , two second rounders to gain talent or package #34 and #51 and move up into the teens......perhaps. Go get the best arm in the Draft, Rattler in the 4th.

DW Toys

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

This was recently floated by Purple Insider’s Matthew Coller

Jordan Addison
No. 11 overall pick in 2024 draft
Future first-round pick
Future second-round pick

Throw in 42 and I would have a hard time saying no. Especially if Odunze is available and we can get him. You could trade up a few spots for him. Grab MPJ at 34. Possibly another trade up for a T or WR as well with 42 and 69.

Addison
Odunze
MPJ
BAP WR or T

I know most would want a T. I'm fine with that but boy that WR corp is one other dog away from being scary.

Two 2025 1st and 2nd picks.



Giants 39 + 47 + Andrew Thomas + Future 3rd

I'm not moving out of the way for potential franchise QBs for two seconds. Even if it's a few spots. Nope. I want Thomas bc there will be other callers.


Cardinals will want MHJ to cover up Murray's mistakes and give him a real WR1. I was too greedy before with this proposal. I would go from 3 to 4 for either 27 or 35 & 104. Again we'll have plenty of callers. We still could get a QB and trade up for a WR/T if we want.


LVR

What about Crosby + 12 + 44 + future 3rd for 3 & 68

Atl

8 + 43 + future 1st for 3

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I would do 34 for Fields straight up. Not with a smile on my face but if we could add a Pittman X/Big Slot, Odunze X/Z and another deep threat with Douglas. Maybe grab Irving with our 3rd and at least it's fun. If not dump Fields and start over at QB in 26.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Mahomes was the #10 pick in the first round and sat his first year. I would call that a blue chip talent. McCarthy at #12 could be the same. McCarthy in R3 is absurd.

I just don't rate McCarthy that high and comparing him to Mahomes feels like a JOKE.

I feel there's a lot of recency bias just because he won the national championship game. Know who else accomplished that feat - Mac Jones.

So I'll continue to go by McCarthy's prior scouting reports rather than letting one good college playoff performance influence my opinion of him.

At best his college playoff run pushes him to a late 2nd rounder if I'm being especially generous. But to me that's about the same as an early 3rd. I would not even spend the Patriots early 2nd on him.

If we're not going for a top 3 elite QB, like I said I'd rather take the elite WR in round 1 - Harrison Jr, Nabers, or Odunze, trade back up into the 1st using our early 2nd for a starting LT, and then in the 3rd I could entertain taking a developmental QB such as McCarthy, Penix Jr, Nix, etc.

If we are going the trade down and take a developmental QB route, I'd also make sure to take a veteran stopgab QB in free agency.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I just don't rate McCarthy that high and comparing him to Mahomes feels like a JOKE.

I feel there's a lot of recency bias just because he won the national championship game. Know who else accomplished that feat - Mac Jones.

So I'll continue to go by McCarthy's prior scouting reports rather than letting one good college playoff performance influence my opinion of him.

At best his college playoff run pushes him to a late 2nd rounder if I'm being especially generous. But to me that's about the same as an early 3rd. I would not even spend the Patriots early 2nd on him.

If we're not going for a top 3 elite QB, like I said I'd rather take the elite WR in round 1 - Harrison Jr, Nabers, or Odunze, trade back up into the 1st using our early 2nd for a starting LT, and then in the 3rd I could entertain taking a developmental QB such as McCarthy, Penix Jr, Nix, etc.

If we are going the trade down and take a developmental QB route, I'd also make sure to take a veteran stopgab QB in free agency.

I looked at 6 mock drafts and every mock had JJ McCarthy between #14 and #19 in the 1st round. No idea why you think JJ McCarthy is in R2 or R3.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I looked at 6 mock drafts and every mock had JJ McCarthy between #14 and #19 in the 1st round. No idea why you think JJ McCarthy is in R2 or R3.

I think hes saying that's where McCarthy's value is.

Like Daniels will be a top 10 pick but I won't have a 1st RD grade on him.

Just the nature of the position. None of these guys are worth a top 5 pick in terms of value but teams need QBs so they'll be overdrafted.

 

[jmt57]

First, a couple of NFL Draft Trade Value Charts

Classic Jimmy Johnson Model:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Rich Hill Modern Valuation Model:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Model:

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Trading with the Giants, the Patriots would receive their 1st (6th overall) and 2nd (39th) on the first model; on the second two the Pats probably would also need to give NYG their 3rd.

Trading with the Falcons, the Patriots would receive 1.8, 2.43 and 3.74 according to the original JJ model. On the Rich Hill model it would be the Pats sending 1.3 and 4.104 to Atlanta, and receive 1.8 and 2.43. According to the last model it would be Atlanta sending NE their 1.8 and 2.43, then the Pats giving up a bit more - maybe exchanging each other's 3rds and 4ths.

A trade with Minnesota might get a little trickier, since the Vikings don't have a 3rd. But on the last two models it would be the Pats receiving 1.11 and 2.42; one model has the Pats also receiving a 5th while the other is the oppossite, the Patriots also sending their own 5th to Minnesota.

 

[Headcase]

First, a couple of NFL Draft Trade Value Charts

Classic Jimmy Johnson Model:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Rich Hill Modern Valuation Model:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Model:

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Trading with the Giants, the Patriots would receive their 1st (6th overall) and 2nd (39th) on the first model; on the second two the Pats probably would also need to give NYG their 3rd.

Trading with the Falcons, the Patriots would receive 1.8, 2.43 and 3.74 according to the original JJ model. On the Rich Hill model it would be the Pats sending 1.3 and 4.104 to Atlanta, and receive 1.8 and 2.43. According to the last model it would be Atlanta sending NE their 1.8 and 2.43, then the Pats giving up a bit more - maybe exchanging each other's 3rds and 4ths.

A trade with Minnesota might get a little trickier, since the Vikings don't have a 3rd. But on the last two models it would be the Pats receiving 1.11 and 2.42; one model has the Pats also receiving a 5th while the other is the oppossite, the Patriots also sending their own 5th to Minnesota.

The charts become less valuable inside of the top 10, specially when the team trading up is looking for the last QB before a dropoff, or WR1....the best bet is to look at recent trades.

For example

2018
Colts traded #3 (Sam Darnold) to NJY for 6th, 37th, 39th, and a '19 2nd

Which lines up nicely with
Patriots trade #3 to NYG for 6th, 39th, 47th and a '25 2nd

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The charts become less valuable inside of the top 10, specially when the team trading up is looking for the last QB before a dropoff, or WR1....the best bet is to look at recent trades.

For example

2018
Colts traded #3 (Sam Darnold) to NJY for 6th, 37th, 39th, and a '19 2nd

Which lines up nicely with
Patriots trade #3 to NYG for 6th, 39th, 47th and a '25 2nd

Thanks. That is great information.

I would prefer the NYG 6th, 39th, 47th, and their '24 3rd. Then trade down to 12th and pick up another '24 2nd and 3rd. At #12 we can pick McCarthy, Nix or Penix, and then we have four 2nd round picks and three 3rd round picks to fill out the offense, 2 OTs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB, and 1 3rd down Back. That assumes the McCarthy, Nix, or Penix will be good in Y2 or Y3 - I can wait if we have that haul on offense. We should sign at least defensive FAs too, FS, EDGE, and tall press corner (there are good options in FA for defense but few good options on offense).

 

[Tunescribe]

Lots of great scenarios broached here. My fingers are crossed that they pass on Daniels/Maye and trade down for a good haul.

 

[The Gr8est]

Lots of great scenarios broached here. My fingers are crossed that they pass on Daniels/Maye and trade down for a good haul.

Our QB evaluators really need to earn their money here.

The Pats can get their QB and a great haul as well.

 

[Zuma]

No specifics but I just really really hope we don’t get too cute with trades like Bill was prone to doing. I prefer they just get the guy they want and not trade back 3 places so they can get a 2077 9th round pick only to lose the player they wanted just ahead of them.

 

[PapaTrips]

Yes BGC I mentioned that we should make a little noise about the LAC moving to #3 and perhaps getting a little battle going between the Cards and the Chargers. Both these teams love MHJ. If we somehow get the Cards to bite we will still be in control of the draft. Depending on what you get you pick the QB or trade out again. Forget the chart values this is a top 3,4 pick and the last highly rated QB.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Yes BGC I mentioned that we should make a little noise about the LAC moving to #3 and perhaps getting a little battle going between the Cards and the Chargers. Both these teams love MHJ. If we somehow get the Cards to bite we will still be in control of the draft. Depending on what you get you pick the QB or trade out again.

We absolutely should be lying, sending smoke signals and getting any interest up we can. This is a very top heavy draft with numerous prospects team will want.

Forget the chart values this is a top 3,4 pick and the last highly rated QB.

1000% this and people need to start to understand this. Esp when you get a few teams that need a QB, want MHJ or Nabers or Alt or Fashanu.

 

[Joey007]

Our QB evaluators really need to earn their money here.

The Pats can get their QB and a great haul as well.

There has to be something they really like out of one of McCarthy, Penix, Nix, or a Fields trade in that scenario.

These are some great trade packages, and if you’re not sold on whoever is left at 3, I get it. But we have to come out of this offseason with a QB. All of the picks are moot if we don’t have a QB. Basically you become Pittsburgh.