Draft Stock: JJ McCarthy Game Manager to 2nd Overall

[Big Bucks]

Everyone and their dog has an opinion on QBs, but I tend to rely on the NFL.com's own ratings. They are made before the hype leading to the draft and doesn't change… it doesn't have the BS season… just reliable ratings. It's there in black and white… anything under 6.50 is a 1 in 10 chance and just simply isn't worth a 1st round pick, let alone top 3 pick. Teams overdraft… and the odds isn't in their favour. Ultimately, it's better to build the team and then pay up and use three firsts to move up and gamble on that 7 to 6.70 guy. So McCarthy is part of the BS season where teams want others to drop to them. Don't do it, Wolf, unless it's Williams or Daniels.

• ​
• ​

2020 7.07 Burrow​ 6.77 Tua​ 6.50 Herbert​ 6.36 Love​ 6.25 Eason​ 6.62 Fromm​ 6.12 Hurts​

2021 7.40 Lawrence​ 6.50 Wilson​ 6.47 Lance​ 6.45 Fields​ 6.33 Jones​ 6.19 Trask​ 6.14 Mills​

2022 6.41 Willis​ 6.40 Coral​ 6.40 Pickett​ 6.36 Ridder​ 6.22 Howell​ 6.10 Coan​ 5.67 Zappe​

2023 6.82 Young​ 6.70 Stroud​ 6.40 Richardson​ 6.34 Levis​ 6.23 Hooker​ 5.96 Hall​ 5.96 O'Connell​

2024 6.74 Williams​ 6.73 Daniels​ 6.50 Maye​ 6.40 McCarthy​ 6.39 Nix​ 6.25 Penix​ 5.95 Rattler​

• 

 

[Big Bucks]

To add to the above.. everyone is lauding this OT class.. yet NFLs own ratings have one standout in Latham at 6.71 then Alt is 6.49 then there is 5 guys going down to 6.41. Its really not that great. Just alot of guys rated similar.. and in that crapshoot of can become good starter within 2 years lol

 

[Ivan]

Slight edit for accuracy. You don't the qualifier. Harrison's the best player in the draft, bar none.

Based upon what, his daddy’s name? I would take Nabers over him every time. Using a high first on a possession receiver is nuts.

 

[1960Pats]

Yes, the combine matters.

Yes, private workouts matter.

Yes, in-person, ZOOM, and pro day interviews matter.

An, yes pro days matter.

 

[Tunescribe]

Could be great, solid, average, back up or bust like the rest of them.

This whole draft process has become too much sometimes.

Thank you.

Words of wisdom for all the idiots, morons and Madden-crazed fantasy football fools. Those who desperately wanted this team to tank last season and got angry over the wins in Pittsburgh and Denver. This is where we are at -- a league laughingstock. It's what too many here wished for, so they damn well better enjoy it.

 

[stcjones]

Just trying to understand something here - As is my recollection, McCarthy was perceived as a game manager throughout his college career, as well as directly following the Championship game. (people were memeing him as the guy who does nothing on the group project and still gets an A etc).

And since then, he hasn't taken another snap - but somehow has jumped ahead of a bunch of QBs who were rated way above him during, and directly after the season.

So are teams really thinking that a few nice throws in shorts are enough to elevate him to be 2 overall in the draft? He was a 2nd (some outlets 3rd) round guy just a few weeks ago IIRC.

Is this a classic situation where the media hypes up a new prospect from week to week, because they've gotten bored talking about the last guy?

I remember reading that "draft stock" is really just something that exists in the eyes of the media. ie NFL teams more or less already know who sits where as they've scouted them for years, and only character/injury concerns that emerge last minute can cause major plummets.

Maybe he was always a first round talent, and the media just learned it.. I am interested to hear what other people think about the "draft stock" concept!

Great post. I think Harbaugh started it up to help the kids stock . Now I just think it’s media hype would be shocked if top 3 QB taken did not go Williams Daniels Maye in whatever order. They didn’t ask much from McCarthy in that run heavy offense in his time there. He can make most throws when he needs to but seems to operate best in the game manager mode (Alex smith). I think he will go mid first still….

 

[Ross12]

Great post. I think Harbaugh started it up to help the kids stock . Now I just think it’s media hype would be shocked if top 3 QB taken did not go Williams Daniels Maye in whatever order. They didn’t ask much from McCarthy in that run heavy offense in his time there. He can make most throws when he needs to but seems to operate best in the game manager mode (Alex smith). I think he will go mid first still….

People are putting too much into some quotes from Harbaugh. It really has nothing to do with that for teams. It's about how he measured at the combine, how he's already put on muscle in the offseason, how he's already showing that he's working on his throwing mechanics to improve a couple flaws, how he interviewed with teams, and what teams saw on film while prepping for the draft. The combine measurements and interviews probably being the most important factors.

It's not like teams all thought he wasn't good and then Harbaugh said "hey dudes this guy actually is good" and every GM and front office in the NFL said "oh golly we didn't notice, hey guys let's start checking this unknown McCarthy guy out"

 

[Ross12]

Random side note - coincidence that the Pats work out McCarthy on Patriots Day? They could do the workout and then let him check out the Boston Marathon goings-on after if he wanted to, or at least view televised and discuss. Good day to give a QB prospect a glimpse of a big part of the regional culture.

 

[Love The Drake]

Random side note - coincidence that the Pats work out McCarthy on Patriots Day? They could do the workout and then let him check out the Boston Marathon goings-on after if he wanted to, or at least view televised and discuss. Good day to give a QB prospect a glimpse of a big part of the regional culture.

Just watching both conduct themselves in interviews I think JJ has the tougher skin and the more confidence. When Maye started missing throws at his pro day he seemed to get a little rattled. can he do it under bright lights?

That’s been my question all along.
McCarthy has been winner and a winner on the biggest stage he reminds me of Tom in that way and I think he is the guy.
As I said before I am terrified we get this wrong and one becomes a stud and one becomes a bust.
I hope Macadoo and AVP sign off fully on whatever pick we make.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Just watching both conduct themselves in interviews I think JJ has the tougher skin and the more confidence. When Maye started missing throws at his pro day he seemed to get a little rattled. can he do it under bright lights?

That’s been my question all along.
McCarthy has been winner and a winner on the biggest stage he reminds me of Tom in that way and I think he is the guy.
As I said before I am terrified we get this wrong and one becomes a stud and one becomes a bust.
I hope Macadoo and AVP sign off fully on whatever pick we make.

Most NFL QBs have talent, some more than others. Even Zack Wilson can win AFC player of the week. What I want to know though, is how will this QB handle it when things go to ****? When he’s not recognizing things fast enough, when his line is being beat constantly, when his receivers are constantly running the wrong routes and not fighting. That’s what separates the bad / average QBs from the great ones.

We had that in Brady for years. We saw Mac didn’t have it. He got down on himself, let his emotions run too much, and tried to force things. Will the next guy do that? I want Sullenberger as my pilot. Are any of these QBs that guy?

 

[Love The Drake]

Most NFL QBs have talent, some more than others. Even Zack Wilson can win AFC player of the week. What I want to know though, is how will this QB handle it when things go to ****? When he’s not recognizing things fast enough, when his line is being beat constantly, when his receivers are constantly running the wrong routes and not fighting. That’s what separates the bad / average QBs from the great ones.

We had that in Brady for years. We saw Mac didn’t have it. He got down on himself, let his emotions run too much, and tried to force things. Will the next guy do that? I want Sullenberger as my pilot. Are any of these QBs that guy?

Exactly my gut tells me that’s Mccarhy more than Maye.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

What QB had the “it” factor in College
The biggest times in games where the QB needed to make a play and did it consistently
To me that means a tough minded kid. Loves and thrives in the biggest moments
You can’t teach that, It is in you. All the other stuff can be taught except for the “It’ factor, height, arm strength and speed

Mac never had it. Bama ran over teams and was a great team in every facet

 

[Ross12]

What QB had the “it” factor in College
The biggest times in games where the QB needed to make a play and did it consistently
To me that means a tough minded kid. Loves and thrives in the biggest moments
You can’t teach that, It is in you. All the other stuff can be taught except for the “It’ factor, height, arm strength and speed

Mac never had it. Bama ran over teams and was a great team in every facet

You could argue McCarthy is on both sides of this one. His team was great and ran over other teams like you describe, and he was part of a lot of wins that weren't close.

However, in the college playoff he was forced to come in clutch. That's about as high-stakes as it comes in college football against the toughest competition.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don’t think I remember reports of the team having a formal dinner pre-visit with the other QBs but maybe I just didn’t see it. It’s a common practice, but usually with a guy the team has their eye on… Which could also be a smokescreen.

Personally - I think a lot of fans and media personalities are quick to write off McCarthy due to his sharp stock rise in the last two months. While going at pick 3 would certainly be higher than expected, and his body of work is smaller than the others, it’s not Trey Lance small. The kid has a high floor - he can start quickly, he has polished footwork, he played in a pro system in college and he has grade A intangibles and can lead a team coming fresh off a National Championship - but he also is barely 21 years old and has tons of room to grow his game, he’s sharp, he’s got a very good arm, and his athletic profile is sneaky good.

Add: Not 6'4" tall, but taller than Mahomes, hence tall enough. 220 lbs so big enough. If McCarthy can improve on the 2nd and 3rd level passing he is a safer bet than Maye, although Maye is a bigger man. McCarthy should be a better scrambler and that might come in handy for a few years - lol.

 

[The Gr8est]

What QB had the “it” factor in College
The biggest times in games where the QB needed to make a play and did it consistently
To me that means a tough minded kid. Loves and thrives in the biggest moments
You can’t teach that, It is in you. All the other stuff can be taught except for the “It’ factor, height, arm strength and speed

Mac never had it. Bama ran over teams and was a great team in every facet

Brady didn’t have the “it” factor, he wasn’t even the starter.

 

[Ivan]

Add: Not 6'4" tall, but taller than Mahomes, hence tall enough. 220 lbs so big enough. If McCarthy can improve on the 2nd and 3rd level passing he is a safer bet than Maye, although Maye is a bigger man. McCarthy should be a better scrambler and that might come in handy for a few years - lol.

Actually Maye’s running ability has been compared to Josh Allen’s many times. I haven’t seen that with McCarthy. I’m not saying that McCarthy doesn’t have that ability, just that I haven’t seen anyone putting it out as one of his strengths.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

You could argue McCarthy is on both sides of this one. His team was great and ran over other teams like you describe, and he was part of a lot of wins that weren't close.

However, in the college playoff he was forced to come in clutch. That's about as high-stakes as it comes in college football against the toughest competition.

Ross. I agree.
All this years QB’s have warts. Saying that they also have a lot of upside.
I am all for working with that upside
The “IT” factor which goes hand and hand with mental toughness is the most important
We seen it with TB but not with MJ.
We need that guy that after the opposing team scores to take the lead with 1:30 left in game
We need that guy that you feel has a great chance of marching down the field to win it
I sense JJ has it. Question is do the others? Do the others have that much more talent that it overways just the “IT” factor

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Actually Maye’s running ability has been compared to Josh Allen’s many times. I haven’t seen that with McCarthy. I’m not saying that McCarthy doesn’t have that ability, just that I haven’t seen anyone putting it out as one of his strengths.

McCarthy's 3cone was the 5th best of all participants at the combine including WRs, DBs, etc. - elite short area quickness. He runs well too. But you are correct that in Harbaugh's system, McCarthy was discouraged from scrambling or running.

 

[RobertWeathers]

McCarthy has small hands

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

McCarthy has small hands

Yep, 9", and Maye's hands are only 1/8" bigger. Williams's are 9 3/4". Daniels refused to be measured. Jared Goff also has 9" hands, so it's not necessarily the kiss of death. Mahomes is 9 1/4".