If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.
Unlikely? Yes. Farfetched? No.
OK, assuming this is true, this is the complete rundown, in rough order of probability, by my estimation:
1)
The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2)
The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3)
The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot
4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)
5) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs and beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)
6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.
7) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games; the Patriots win the wild card.
8) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2; the Patriots win the division.
9) The Colts lose all 3, Bill Polian cries so loudly that his Colts are out of the playoffs, the rules are changed immediately so that the season is lengthened by a week, 6 more wild card teams are added.
What is bolded is the most important part.