Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[signbabybrady]

OK. I'm fickle. You get the prize. You point out that it can be boiled down to one sentence:

"Pats go 3--0 and win the Division if the Jets AND Fins each lose one or they win the WC if the Ravens OR Colts lose two."

ooohhh ooohhhh oooohhhh whats the prize.....is it as good as the prize in tonights mega millions

 

[richpats]

I know Flacco ain't your normal rookie quarterback, but I don't think he can lead the Ravens into Dallas and win.

Well Baltimore is definitely more than Joe Flacco but he has done wonders as a rookie. The Ravens win the games they are supposed to yet always lose to teams with superior records. Their next 2 are games that will be fairly even (Pitt at home, Dallas away), so anything could happen.

 

[signbabybrady]

Not only will it be a must-win for the Cowboys when they play the Ravens, but it is also the LAST game at Texas Stadium. All the Cowboy legends will be there and the fans will be beyond fired up.

I know Flacco ain't your normal rookie quarterback, but I don't think he can lead the Ravens into Dallas and win.

I agree I think Shane Falco will have some trouble against the Cowboys.

 

[upstater1]

Gasper wrote: Or it could all be rendered irrelevant by a Patriots loss.

But, there is a scenario that gets the Patriots in the playoffs with a loss to Arizona.

It's the unlikeliest of the 4 scenarios but it is not farfetched at all.

If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.

Unlikely? Yes. Farfetched? No.

Put it this way, if either the Phins or Jets lose to one of those teams, then the Patriots chances of winning the division even with an Arizona loss is 50/50.

 

[JSn]

If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.

We have the best chance we could have asked for to win this game.

1pm and at home.

Pats-Cards stays at 1 - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Gasper wrote: Or it could all be rendered irrelevant by a Patriots loss.

But, there is a scenario that gets the Patriots in the playoffs with a loss to Arizona.

It's the unlikeliest of the 4 scenarios but it is not farfetched at all.

If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.

Unlikely? Yes. Farfetched? No.

Put it this way, if either the Phins or Jets lose to one of those teams, then the Patriots chances of winning the division even with an Arizona loss is 50/50.

you gotta love it man, you gotta love it...!

 

[signbabybrady]

We have the best chance we could have asked for to win this game.

1pm and at home.

Pats-Cards stays at 1 - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

Alright things starting to break are way...I thought for sure that would get flexed.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

OK. I'm fickle. You get the prize. You point out that it can be boiled down to one sentence:

"Pats go 3--0 and win the Division if the Jets AND Fins each lose one or they win the WC if the Ravens OR Colts lose two."

OR Steelers lose 3. I know, not likely.

 

[GostkowSKI]

You're going to think I'm crazy, but I want revenge against Pittsburgh. The Pats can beat them in a rematch, like they've done before. Pittsburgh offense is not that strong. Pats could have their full assortment of RBs back for the rematch. Pats could also have Ty Warren back for a rematch. I also doubt Moss will be dropping balls all over the field again, in a rematch. Again, I realize this would be a tough task, but I hate Pittsburgh, their fans, and their Iron City beer.

Haha I agree, thinking that the Pats can win @ Pitt. This sounds odd to say but it was much, much closer than a 33-10 score indicates. I highly doubt the Pats turn it over on five consecutive possessions in a rematch.

However, in my opinion going @ Pitt would be the toughest possible draw for the Pats in the AFC playoffs.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree I think Shane Falco will have some trouble against the Cowboys.

If you die, the Earth lives. If you live, the Earth dies.

 

[Kontradiction]

Alright things starting to break are way...I thought for sure that would get flexed.

Feel better. The Cards have already wrapped up their division and have nothing to play for. Plus, have you seen Warner and Co. play on the East Coast this year?

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Yes, but in reading the comments, a lot of people still don't get it. It is almost this simple, there are really just 3 ways that make sense for the Patriots to make the playoffs and that are not incredibly far-fetched, in other words these are scenarios we can easily hope for:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

There are far less likely scenarios, like the Colts losing 2 of 3 games despite easy schedule, or the Steelers losing all 3, or an amazing combination of lots of teams losing like crazy and the Patriots going 2-1 and then sneaking in. By far the easiest and most likely path to the playoffs is 1) 2) or 3) as I described above.

# 2 works for me....

 

[Two Eight]

"We'll win as many games as we can. I'm sure if we qualify somebody will let us know."

That's my new favorite Belichick quote

 

[JoeSixPat]

i like scenario number 2 the best....

That would have the Jets missing the Playoffs.

And the Jets missing the Playoffs would mean that MangIdiot would be out of a job, with it being clear to all that if MangIdiot can't win this season, he never will win in a division with Tom Brady and the Patriots.

And while I think we'd all enjoy watching that, doesn't it make more sense to let a division rival sneak into the playoffs keep its incompetent head coach to benefit the Patriots in future seasons when they're more able to be Super Bowl contenders?

Just playing Devil's Advocate here but I strongly feel that an incompetent rat like Mangini and the Jets fans are a perfect match, and I hope they stay together for years to come!

 

[goldenaleus]

Feel better. The Cards have already wrapped up their division and have nothing to play for. Plus, have you seen Warner and Co. play on the East Coast this year?

They are still in the hunt for a 1st round bye.

We haven't been dominating against NFC teams this season, either.

 

[PatsDeb]

I don't think it was said specifically but the Pats could still win the next 2 and be eliminated from playoff contention BEFORE the Buffalo game. All that would need to happen is Baltimore, Indy, Miami and the Jets winning their next 2 (not impossible). That would be a real bummer.

So we lose the tie-breaker with both Miami & the Jets? Because both of them cannot go 11-5 since they play eachother the last game.

 

[signbabybrady]

So we lose the tie-breaker with both Miami & the Jets? Because both of them cannot go 11-5 since they play eachother the last game.

yes we lose the tie breakers to both of them.

 

[PatsDeb]

yes we lose the tie breakers to both of them.

Bummer. But I get it now. If we are all 10-5 going into the last game, assuming we beat Buffalo, Miami takes the division on a better conference record (same division record as us) and the Jets would take it on a better division record (5-1 as opposed to 4-2 for us). We really screwed ourselves by not winning against either Indy or the Jets. Sigh.

Oh well, here's to hoping the Jets continue their losing ways this weekend and that someone takes Miami down.

 

[IndianPat]

Most of the contributors on this thread have been working on which combination of other teams losses make sense for Patriots' playoff hopes. There is only one scenario that makes sense: PATRIOTS NEED TO WIN ALL THEIR REMAINING GAMES.

No team with 11 wins has failed to make the playoffs. In the end, things will sort themselves out and if our team has 11 wins, it will make the playoffs.

Go Pats. Get those 11 wins!!

 

[signbabybrady]

Most of the contributors on this thread have been working on which combination of other teams losses make sense for Patriots' playoff hopes. There is only one scenario that makes sense: PATRIOTS NEED TO WIN ALL THEIR REMAINING GAMES.

No team with 11 wins has failed to make the playoffs. In the end, things will sort themselves out and if our team has 11 wins, it will make the playoffs.

Go Pats. Get those 11 wins!!

I agree that it is likely if we take care off business thigns will work out but there is no guarentee at 11-5 to make it.

If we win all 3 of our games and either the Jets or Dolphins do too we can't win the division. And if We win all our games and either the Jets or Dolphins do to the only way to get a wildcard would be for either Balt or Indy to lose 2. And that is what we have been discussing. Instead of relying on past results which mean nothing.