Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Steelers own the Ravens. The Ravens will lose on Sunday. The Ravens will lose in Dallas in two weeks. If the Pats win 2 out of 3 games, their in the playoffs.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

Steelers own the Ravens. The Ravens will lose on Sunday. The Ravens will lose in Dallas in two weeks. If the Pats win 2 out of 3 games, their in the playoffs.

Best explanation I have heard yet!!


GO PATS!!

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Best explanation I have heard yet!!


GO PATS!!

I have to correct myself because I thought the Ravens were 8-5. The Ravens are 9-4 and has a conference record of 7-3. The Pats have a conference record of 5-5, which hurts. The Dolphins have conference record of 6-4. Here are the only ways the Pats make playoffs.


*The Pats win their division by winning out and the Dolphins and Jets losing 1 game. Basically, if the Pats lose one game, the Dolphins and Jets need to lose two (and it needs to be to AFC teams. NFC teams are no good).
*The Pats winning out and has the Ravens lose 2 out of 3.

 

[ICSB]

Steelers own the Ravens. The Ravens will lose on Sunday. The Ravens will lose in Dallas in two weeks. If the Pats win 2 out of 3 games, their in the playoffs.

The way the Steelers are protecting Ben and how their offense plays at times they better hope they own the Ravens. Their first game was a battle regardless. Both teams will attack each others QB.

Flacco is actually playing better than Ben lately and he has good mobility despite rookie mistakes at times.

Going to be a tough tough defensive battle.

In Dallas depends on the fragile state of that wuss team in two weeks and if they can get by the Giants and keep hope alive IMO.Romo is a bonehead against good Ds. They may lose to Dallas but that game may not kill them being an NFC team and all if they finish 11-5. They will own the Jags probably.

They may lose to the Steelers too.

If the Steelers lose a few they could be the WC. Far far from over yet.


edit: Looking it up the Steelers and Ravens tend to split every season. And this is in Baltimore. Gonna be a toughie.

 

[muslimman]

I have a feeling that the Ravens will lose to Cowgirls and Steelers.
Then I give us a pretty good chance of getting the wild card spot if we manage to beat the Cardinals.

 

[QuinielaBox]

Here is a funny one!

THe Patriots win three straight and finish 11 and 5.

The Dolphins and J_E_T_S each win their next two games and tie each other in the Sunday night finale and knock each other out finishing 10-5-1..... OOOOPS!!!!!

What a wonderful end to the regular season.

(This assumes the Colts, Ravens, and Steelers take care of their business. The Broncos are irrelevant in this discussion because they backed in already).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I have a feeling that the Ravens will lose to Cowgirls and Steelers.
Then I give us a pretty good chance of getting the wild card spot if we manage to beat the Cardinals.

Hope you're right, but I do get a little amazed that people are focusing on the Arizona game and more or less implicitly assuming that we beat Buffalo on their home turf in the last game of the season, which will be their Super Bowl if they can keep us from the playoffs. I actually think that playing Arizona in Foxboro (hopefully with cold temps, a strong wind and a little sleet in the air) is a better fit.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Here is a funny one!

THe Patriots win three straight and finish 11 and 5.

The Dolphins and J_E_T_S each win their next two games and tie each other in the Sunday night finale and knock each other out finishing 10-5-1..... OOOOPS!!!!!

What a wonderful end to the regular season.

(This assumes the Colts, Ravens, and Steelers take care of their business. The Broncos are irrelevant in this discussion because they backed in already).

That's an awesome scenario!

(The Colts, Ravens and Steelers are all irrelevant on that scenario BTW.)

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't think it was said specifically but the Pats could still win the next 2 and be eliminated from playoff contention BEFORE the Buffalo game. All that would need to happen is Baltimore, Indy, Miami and the Jets winning their next 2 (not impossible). That would be a real bummer.

Heh heh. I wish I could take credit for this, but another poster has observed that should the Jests and Fins enter their final game 2--0, we would still make the Playoffs if they tied that game and we won out.

 

[upstater1]

I have to correct myself because I thought the Ravens were 8-5. The Ravens are 9-4 and has a conference record of 7-3. The Pats have a conference record of 5-5, which hurts. The Dolphins have conference record of 6-4. Here are the only ways the Pats make playoffs.


*The Pats win their division by winning out and the Dolphins and Jets losing 1 game. Basically, if the Pats lose one game, the Dolphins and Jets need to lose two (and it needs to be to AFC teams. NFC teams are no good).
*The Pats winning out and has the Ravens lose 2 out of 3.

Wrong.

Did you even read the thread that you're posting in?

Those aren't the only situations.

 

[upstater1]

i don't think i understand who are considered "common opponents?" For example, the Pats, Jets and Fins all play KC, SF, SD, DEN, STL, SEA, OAK and ARI. The Pats record against those teams is 5--1 with games remaining against OAK and ARI. The Fins record against those teams is 5--1, with games remaining against KC and SF. The Jets record is 3--4, with a game remaining against SEA. I get how we beat the Jets on the 10--6 scenario, but not the Fins. I think I'm missing something.

Hmmm, I did common opponents against the Phins and we had a better record. I didn't consider that this could be a round-robin common opponents (i.e. all teams that the Jets, Phins and Patriot played). In other words, I calculated common opponents one team at a time.

In the case against the Dolphins we would go to strength of victory.

That would favor the Dolphins, I think (we lost to San Diego and they won).

But, I haven't done the calculations and I don't know if, in the case of a 3 way tie, this is how common opponents are done. It could be that the Jets are eliminated from the equation by virtue of having a bad common opponents record, and then they recalculate Phins versus Patriots, in which case the Patriots would have a better common opponents record, and we'd win the division.

 

[Yehoodi]

Yes, but in reading the comments, a lot of people still don't get it. It is almost this simple, there are really just 3 ways that make sense for the Patriots to make the playoffs and that are not incredibly far-fetched, in other words these are scenarios we can easily hope for:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

There are far less likely scenarios, like the Colts losing 2 of 3 games despite easy schedule, or the Steelers losing all 3, or an amazing combination of lots of teams losing like crazy and the Patriots going 2-1 and then sneaking in. By far the easiest and most likely path to the playoffs is 1) 2) or 3) as I described above.

What i am hoping for is for both the Jets and Mia to lose this weekend and we win, then we control our own destiny . . . :singing:

 

[Yehoodi]

OK, assuming this is true, this is the complete rundown, in rough order of probability, by my estimation:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division

2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division

3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)

5) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs and beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)

6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.

7) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games; the Patriots win the wild card.

8) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2; the Patriots win the division.

9) The Colts lose all 3, Bill Polian cries so loudly that his Colts are out of the playoffs, the rules are changed immediately so that the season is lengthened by a week, 6 more wild card teams are added.



What is bolded is the most important part.

excellent anaylsis . . . isnt December fun running thru. the different scenarios. . . of coarse all of us would rather have the ole' days when we hap the division rapped up by ealry Dec., next year we'll get bck to the good ole' days . . .

 

[Yehoodi]

i don't think i understand who are considered "common opponents?" For example, the Pats, Jets and Fins all play KC, SF, SD, DEN, STL, SEA, OAK and ARI. The Pats record against those teams is 5--1 with games remaining against OAK and ARI. The Fins record against those teams is 5--1, with games remaining against KC and SF. The Jets record is 3--4, with a game remaining against SEA. I get how we beat the Jets on the 10--6 scenario, but not the Fins. I think I'm missing something.

It is my understanding, well my interpertation, that common opponent means that literally and does not know divisional barriers, meaning a common opponent can be a team we both played in the division . . . let me explain my thoughts . . .

We all know that at a minimum the common opponents include the 8 games against the two west divisions, but is should also include common divisional opponents, so if NJY & NE tie then the common opponents would be the 8 west games plus the 4 common games against MIA&BUF each team played so a total of 12 games. If its a three way tie between MIA-NYJ-NE, then only the two common games against Buf are added and we have 10 total common games among the three teams (8 west games and 2 games each played against Buf). . .

This is how i view it, there is no explanation on the NFL website, its just my thinking . . .

 

[Yehoodi]

Another odd scenario.

Pats and Dolphins both win next two games. Both teams need the division to make the playoffs.

Jets are out of the playoff race by the last game.

Mangini goes easy on the Dolphins to let them in and knock the Pats out.

ahhhhhhhhh . . . .

 

[signbabybrady]

Here is a funny one!

THe Patriots win three straight and finish 11 and 5.

The Dolphins and J_E_T_S each win their next two games and tie each other in the Sunday night finale and knock each other out finishing 10-5-1..... OOOOPS!!!!!

What a wonderful end to the regular season.

(This assumes the Colts, Ravens, and Steelers take care of their business. The Broncos are irrelevant in this discussion because they backed in already).

That scenario would be awsome if it unfolded but I do not want to be sitting there on the last sunday hoping for a tie. Maybe we can have the ravens or colts lose there 2 so we know if we win we are in but we still could win the division with the tie.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It is my understanding, well my interpertation, that common opponent means that literally and does not know divisional barriers, meaning a common opponent can be a team we both played in the division . . . let me explain my thoughts . . .

We all know that at a minimum the common opponents include the 8 games against the two west divisions, but is should also include common divisional opponents, so if NJY & NE tie then the common opponents would be the 8 west games plus the 4 common games against MIA&BUF each team played so a total of 12 games. If its a three way tie between MIA-NYJ-NE, then only the two common games against Buf are added and we have 10 total common games among the three teams (8 west games and 2 games each played against Buf). . .

This is how i view it, there is no explanation on the NFL website, its just my thinking . . .

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's confused. I'm going to ask someone who should know and I'll post what I learn.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think this is my first Five Star Thread (I might have had one other). Thanks to those of you who boosted it.

 

[upstater1]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's confused. I'm going to ask someone who should know and I'll post what I learn.

There doesn't seem to be anything on the web about how they determine common opponents among 3 teams.

I'm guessing that they look at the records of common opponents. The Patriots and Phins would be tied in the 10-6 scenario we are discussing. The Jets would have the worst common opponent record.

They would drop off.

Then it would be Phins versus Patriots for common opponents, and the Patriots would win that tiebreaker now that the Jets are out of the equation because the Phins-Patriots have more common opponents than the Jets-Phins-Patriots.

 

[signbabybrady]

I have no way of confirming it but I am pretty sure the common opponents don't use your division opponents as that is already used in a previous tie breaker.