Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[alamo]

There doesn't seem to be anything on the web about how they determine common opponents among 3 teams.

I'm guessing that they look at the records of common opponents. The Patriots and Phins would be tied in the 10-6 scenario we are discussing. The Jets would have the worst common opponent record.

They would drop off.

I don't understand the confusion... probabaly noone saw a need to put anything explicit on the web because there's really only one logical way it can work. In resolving a three-way tie, they only look at teams all three have played against, and compare each team's percentage against those common opponents. There's no requirement that the number of games be the same, it's the winning % that matters.

Then it would be Phins versus Patriots for common opponents, and the Patriots would win that tiebreaker now that the Jets are out of the equation because the Phins-Patriots have more common opponents than the Jets-Phins-Patriots.

Technically, once the Jets drop out and it becomes a two-way tie, they go back to the first tiebreaker, and head-to-head might decide it. (Not in this particular case MIA-NE, but in general, I am saying.) Where I think you are wrong is the common opponents will be the same (have to be, since MIA and NE are in the same division) except now the Jets are added in. And adding the Jets back in makes no difference, since if one team had an advantage against the Jets it would have come out earlier in the division record tiebreaking step.

 

[alamo]

I have no way of confirming it but I am pretty sure the common opponents don't use your division opponents as that is already used in a previous tie breaker.

Of course they do use division opponents as common opponents -- if they didn't they would have said so rather than just saying "common opponents" -- but it really doesn't matter because if you get to the common opponents tiebreaking step the previous division record tiebreaking step guarantees that your records with common opponents in the division are the same.

 

[Yehoodi]

I'm sure that comparable things have appeared elsewhere (so if you feel you've got the Playoff possibilities nailed, just ignore this thread), but Gasper's piece in today's Globe is the clearest and best written explanation of the Pat's Playoff dilemma that I have read (link below).

Bottom line for me? Besides "taking care of business" over our next three games, we have to win the Division, as I know others have observed. For that to happen, the Jets have to implode against the Niners or Seahawks and then beat the Dolphins for "pride" and to stick it to Chad in the final game. It is, however, possible that at that point they would have completely fallen apart and would rather die than put the Pats in the Playoffs, even if that means letting Chad beat them in the Meadowlands. I don't see the Dolphins losing to the 49ers or Chiefs with Bill Parcells walking the halls.

The Ravens might lose to the Steelers, but the likelihood of their also losing to the Cowboys who threw up in Pittsburgh on Sunday or to this year's Jaguars in a meaningful game is slim, not impossible, but slim. The likelihood of the Colts losing two of their three remaining games (against the Lions, Jags and Titans) is similarly slim.


For Patriots, winning isn't everything - The Boston Globe

As I was looking at the posts on this board and thinking about the Pats playoff picture and the fate of one game here and there and was reminded again of the one sad thing about a 16 game season . . . that is ever game had a huge impact . . .

Even given the losses via injury and a QB that needed to learn to swim early and had some growing pains . . . Had we "merely" beaten PIT we would be the #2 seed now with a bye in our own hands as opposed to being on the outside looking in . . . OMG what a single game can do . . .

 

[PatsFanSince74]

As I was looking at the posts on this board and thinking about the Pats playoff picture and the fate of one game here and there and was reminded again of the one sad thing about a 16 game season . . . that is ever game had a huge impact . . .

Even given the losses via injury and a QB that needed to learn to swim early and had some growing pains . . . Had we "merely" beaten PIT we would be the #2 seed now with a bye in our own hands as opposed to being on the outside looking in . . . OMG what a single game can do . . .

EDIT: replied by mistake. sorry.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't understand the confusion... probabaly noone saw a need to put anything explicit on the web because there's really only one logical way it can work. In resolving a three-way tie, they only look at teams all three have played against, and compare each team's percentage against those common opponents. There's no requirement that the number of games be the same, it's the winning % that matters.



Technically, once the Jets drop out and it becomes a two-way tie, they go back to the first tiebreaker, and head-to-head might decide it. (Not in this particular case MIA-NE, but in general, I am saying.) Where I think you are wrong is the common opponents will be the same (have to be, since MIA and NE are in the same division) except now the Jets are added in. And adding the Jets back in makes no difference, since if one team had an advantage against the Jets it would have come out earlier in the division record tiebreaking step.

OK. that takes me back to my original question. Someone suggested that if we end up in a three way 10--6 tie with the Jests and Fins, there was a way for the Pats to come out on top. I didn't see how and asked the question that started this mess.

For example, the Pats, Jets and Fins all play KC, SF, SD, DEN, STL, SEA, OAK and ARI. The Pats record against those teams is 5--1 with games remaining against OAK and ARI. The Fins record against those teams is 5--1, with games remaining against KC and SF. The Jets record is 3--4, with a game remaining against SEA. I get how we beat the Jets on the 10--6 scenario, but not the Fins. I think I'm missing something. If you can explain where I'm wrong or what I'm not understanding, i'd appreciate it.

 

[signbabybrady]

Of course they do use division opponents as common opponents -- if they didn't they would have said so rather than just saying "common opponents" -- but it really doesn't matter because if you get to the common opponents tiebreaking step the previous division record tiebreaking step guarantees that your records with common opponents in the division are the same.

That wouldn't be true in a three way tie though as it is possible to have the same division record and not have the same record against the one team not in the tie.

But I think and I fully admitted it is just a guess that to avoid this mess they just remove the division from the common opponents tie breaker because the division was already taken into the equation.

 

[upstater1]

I don't understand the confusion... probabaly noone saw a need to put anything explicit on the web because there's really only one logical way it can work. In resolving a three-way tie, they only look at teams all three have played against, and compare each team's percentage against those common opponents. There's no requirement that the number of games be the same, it's the winning % that matters.



Technically, once the Jets drop out and it becomes a two-way tie, they go back to the first tiebreaker, and head-to-head might decide it. (Not in this particular case MIA-NE, but in general, I am saying.) Where I think you are wrong is the common opponents will be the same (have to be, since MIA and NE are in the same division) except now the Jets are added in. And adding the Jets back in makes no difference, since if one team had an advantage against the Jets it would have come out earlier in the division record tiebreaking step.

I know this is confusing but you have misunderstood what I am discussing.

I was talking about whether they would go to the next tiebreaker once they looked at common opponents and realized that Miami and New England were tied in the event of a 3 way tie, instead of starting all over from tiebreaker #1 once the Jets dropped out in a 3 way tie.

Here's where you're incorrect about one major factor in all this. The Jets, Patriots and Phins do not have the same opponents. We each play different teams in the AFC South and Central. The Patriots have more overlap with the Dolphins than we do with the Jets.

 

[neuronet]

Yes, but in reading the comments, a lot of people still don't get it. It is almost this simple, there are really just 3 ways that make sense for the Patriots to make the playoffs and that are not incredibly far-fetched, in other words these are scenarios we can easily hope for:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

There are far less likely scenarios, like the Colts losing 2 of 3 games despite easy schedule, or the Steelers losing all 3, or an amazing combination of lots of teams losing like crazy and the Patriots going 2-1 and then sneaking in. By far the easiest and most likely path to the playoffs is 1) 2) or 3) as I described above.

Thank you. Much better than the article.

 

[upstater1]

There is so much confusion here that I am going to do common opponents again for everybody.

In a 3 way tie, these are the records for common opponents:

New England 6-2
Miami 6-2
The Jets 5-3

What are the common opponents?

Kansas City, San Francisco, Denver, St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, Arizona, San Diego.

So, if the Patriots lose to Arizona and win the other 2, we get into the playoffs with a Jets loss to the Bills and win over a Phins team that has lost to either the 49ers or the Chiefs.

We have the best common opponents record assuming a 10-6 record under these circumstances.

 

[alamo]

In a 3 way tie, these are the records for common opponents:

New England 6-2
Miami 6-2
The Jets 4-4

What are the common opponents?

Kansas City, San Francisco, Denver, St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, Arizona and SD.

Nope, forgot SD.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I don't think it was said specifically but the Pats could still win the next 2 and be eliminated from playoff contention BEFORE the Buffalo game. All that would need to happen is Baltimore, Indy, Miami and the Jets winning their next 2 (not impossible). That would be a real bummer.

That is not true!

Is everyone one this board as ignorant as Donovan McNabb?

Nor is it the case that the Jets and Dolphins must each lose a game for the Patriots to win the division.

The Jets and Dolphins must each lose OR TIE a game.

So if all three teams go 2-0 for the next two weeks, the Patriots would need to beat the Bills and be rooting for a Jets - Dolphins game to end in a tie.

 

[alamo]

Here's where you're incorrect about one major factor in all this. The Jets, Patriots and Phins do not have the same opponents. We each play different teams in the AFC South and Central. The Patriots have more overlap with the Dolphins than we do with the Jets.

No, they have the exact same overlap with both the Dolphins and Jets, 9 teams (AFC West, NFC West, and BUF.)

 

[signbabybrady]

Is everyone one this board as ignorant as Donovan McNabb?

define irony: a person tries to call everyone else ignorant and is ignorant of his on gramma mistake.

usually I hate all the gramma and spelling corrections but could not pass that up

Not to mention he isn't the first to point this out and might want to at least not call the ones who did prior to him ignorant.


Edit/note: his gramma mistake has been corrected but I caught it .

 

[upstater1]

Ugh, hate to do this again. I missed the Jets - San Diego game early on. That's why I thought the Patriots and Dolphins had more of an overlap.

So, now, for the freakin' final time, this would be the record of common opponents in a 3 way tie at 10-6:

Patriots 6-2
Phins 6-2
Jets 6-2

The Dolphins victory over the San Diego Chargers coupled with our loss to SD would give Miami the division in this scenario.

So, Scenario #4 in the listing has to be changed to this now:

If New England loses to Arizona and wins its other 2 games, we win the division if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat a Miami team that has lost to either San Francisco or Kansas City. In this scenario, the Patriots and Jets are 10-6 and the Phins are 9-7, with the Patriots advancing because of the common opponents tiebreaker.

 

[alamo]

I get how we beat the Jets on the 10--6 scenario, but not the Fins. I think I'm missing something. If you can explain where I'm wrong or what I'm not understanding, i'd appreciate it.

My reading of the situation is in a 3 way tie with Miami at 10-6 we can only win if we get to the Strength of Schedule Tiebreaker. This means the Strength of Victory tiebreaker must be tied, meaning SD and KC (our only difference in victories) must finish with the same record, a longshot.

Unfortunately I can't spend any more time on this today, I'd like to figure this out further.

 

[TruthSeeker]

define irony: a person tries to call everyone else ignorant and is ignorant of his on gramma mistake.

usually I hate all the gramma and spelling corrections but could not pass that up

Not to mention he isn't the first to point this out and might want to at least not call the ones who did prior to him ignorant.


Edit/note: his gramma mistake has been corrected but I caught it .

I guess instead of "who's your daddy?" the question should be "who's your gramma?"

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Edit/note: his gramma mistake has been corrected but I caught it .

"gramma" mistake? What is a gramma mistake?

 

[alamo]

No, they have the exact same overlap with both the Dolphins and Jets, 9 teams (AFC West, NFC West, and BUF.)

No, incorrect.

Of course it's correct. We do NOT have more common opponents with the Dolphins than we have with the Jets. Every team in each division in the entire league has 8 common out-of-division games with all its divisionmates.

 

[upstater1]

No, they have the exact same overlap with both the Dolphins and Jets, 9 teams (AFC West, NFC West, and BUF.)

Thnx, forgot San Diego.

 

[upstater1]

My reading of the situation is in a 3 way tie with Miami at 10-6 we can only win if we get to the Strength of Schedule Tiebreaker. This means the Strength of Victory tiebreaker must be tied, meaning SD and KC (our only difference in victories) must finish with the same record, a longshot.

Unfortunately I can't spend any more time on this today, I'd like to figure this out further.

Kansas City would have to win the next 3 and SD would have to lose the next 3.

Obviously not happening. I was only considering "unlikely" scenarios, and this one is surely farfetched.

So, I'm hoping for a Bills win over the Jets for more reasons thn 1.