Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[PatsWickedPissah]

No team with 11 wins has failed to make the playoffs. In the end, things will sort themselves out and if our team has 11 wins, it will make the playoffs.

Go Pats. Get those 11 wins!!

That is not true in the slightest.
The Donks once went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.
It can happen. It did happen. It well may happen.

In addition were either the Jets or Miami to also finish 11-5, the 11-5 Pats are OUT (unless Balt or the Colts self destruct and lose multiple easy games).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

ooohhh ooohhhh oooohhhh whats the prize.....is it as good as the prize in tonights mega millions

Better! Front row seats at the Press Conference when the Jets fire Mangini!

:woohoo:

 

[brdmaverick]

Although it's more of a long-shot, the wild card seems to be the best path for the Pats. Consider the following:

Pats get in as the #6 seed (assuming the Colts don't implode). They would then face one of the following teams in the first round - @ NYJ, @ MIA or @ DEN. Considering they've already won at both the Jets and Dolphins and beat the Broncos by 34, we have to like the Pats odds there.

Going ahead and saying they win wild-card weekend, that would automatically set up a date @ Tennessee, or more importantly in my mind misses a date @ Pittsburgh. I prefer the idea of NE playing @ Tennessee while letting Pittsburgh and presumably Indy beat up on each other rather than to go @ Pitt.

Now if they win the division, they will most likely be the 3 seed (head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver), meaning they'll have to play Jets/Dolphins/Ravens in New England, then be locked into a game @ Pittsburgh the following week, again assuming a Pats win. From there, it would be either a AFC Title game @ Tennessee OR home vs. Indy, presuming Indy gets by Denver in the first round.

I know I'm getting WAY ahead of myself, but it almost seems to be a easier path going as the 6 seed.

I was actually thinking about this scenario as well, and I agree that it would be the best case scenario AS LONG AS we don't go to DENVER. That place and that team gives me the chills (and yes, I know we destroyed them earlier this year).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Bummer. But I get it now. If we are all 10-5 going into the last game, assuming we beat Buffalo, Miami takes the division on a better conference record (same division record as us) and the Jets would take it on a better division record (5-1 as opposed to 4-2 for us). We really screwed ourselves by not winning against either Indy or the Jets. Sigh.

Oh well, here's to hoping the Jets continue their losing ways this weekend and that someone takes Miami down.

Yeah, it's taken me forever to figure it out, but here's how it boils down to one sentence (with credit to several posters):

"If we finish 3--0, we win the Division if BOTH the Jets AND Fins lose ONE game; we win the Wildcard if EITHER the Ravens OR Colts lose TWO games."

There will be a Quiz in the morning.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

You guys need to relax and realize that for the Dolphins, putting together a 3-game winning streak feels like the Pats felt last year week after week. We might be better than any given team... but oh, the gauntlet we face!

Where were the fins 3 weeks ago? Oh that's right. Losing to the Pats by 20. Where were the Jets last week, or even this week? Folding like a lawnchair to make this discussion possible.

Tell me all about which opponents each team "should" beat. Win these three, and chances are we're in.

ONE of our 2 opponents are out to start with. The other one needs to lose once.

Win these three, it'll happen.

PFnV

 

[NJPatsfan26]

You guys need to relax and realize that for the Dolphins, putting together a 3-game winning streak feels like the Pats felt last year week after week. We might be better than any given team... but oh, the gauntlet we face!

Where were the fins 3 weeks ago? Oh that's right. Losing to the Pats by 20. Where were the Jets last week, or even this week? Folding like a lawnchair to make this discussion possible.

Tell me all about which opponents each team "should" beat. Win these three, and chances are we're in.

ONE of our 2 opponents are out to start with. The other one needs to lose once.

Win these three, it'll happen.

PFnV

Well said.

All we have to worry about it winning. And winning out.

GO PATS!!

 

[thebooradley]

If the Pats win out, something will happen that will allow them to get into the playoffs. There is a reason an 11-5 team has never missed the playoffs, and this year won't be the year it happens.

It has happened, and it was our very own 11-5 Pats that kept 11-5 Denver out of the playoffs in 1985, the year they went to Superbowl XX.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It has happened, and it was our very own 11-5 Pats that kept 11-5 Denver out of the playoffs in 1985, the year they went to Superbowl XX.

factually correct as has been observed by several posters including me over the past couple of days, but in 1985 only five teams made the playoffs in each Conference. the expanded format (six teams) didn't come in until 1990. still, it is highly unlikely, though as you point out not impossible, that an 11--5 team would miss the Playoffs meaning that there are still three weeks and a lot of football to be played.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Gasper wrote: Or it could all be rendered irrelevant by a Patriots loss.

But, there is a scenario that gets the Patriots in the playoffs with a loss to Arizona.

It's the unlikeliest of the 4 scenarios but it is not farfetched at all.

If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.

Unlikely? Yes. Farfetched? No.

Put it this way, if either the Phins or Jets lose to one of those teams, then the Patriots chances of winning the division even with an Arizona loss is 50/50.

if the first four intradivision tiebreakers are head to head, record in the division, record vs. common opponents and record in the conference, on which basis and how do the pats make it under either of those scenarios?

 

[AFPatsFan12]

Don't sleep on the Colts losing their last two. It is unlikely, and they are playing well, but they go to Jacksonville on a short week in Week 16, and they got Tennessee at home in Week 17. Jacksonville admittedly blows this year, but a primetime, home division game counts for something. If Tennessee is playing for something in Week 17 (say, Pittsburgh beats Tennessee in Week... 15?, and is one game behind the Titans for Home-Field throughout), that game in Indy won't be a cakewalk for the Colts. If the Titans have locked everything up, then all bets are off, but who knows?

I don't think the Colts will lose their last two (I'm going out on a limb, and saying that they will beat Detroit this week), but it IS in the realm of possibility, if nothing else...

 

[ICSB]

Don't sleep on the Colts losing their last two. It is unlikely, and they are playing well, but they go to Jacksonville on a short week in Week 16, and they got Tennessee at home in Week 17. Jacksonville admittedly blows this year, but a primetime, home division game counts for something. If Tennessee is playing for something in Week 17 (say, Pittsburgh beats Tennessee in Week... 15?, and is one game behind the Titans for Home-Field throughout), that game in Indy won't be a cakewalk for the Colts. If the Titans have locked everything up, then all bets are off, but who knows?

I don't think the Colts will lose their last two (I'm going out on a limb, and saying that they will beat Detroit this week), but it IS in the realm of possibility, if nothing else...

I don't see the Jags beating the Colts twice. All our defense has to do is watch the replay of our week 3 game and get embarrassed.

Matt Jones is gone. Porter is hurt now for them. And Mathis is out.

They always get up for the Colts but they are really playing with no heart. I am sure tho they will of course give us a better shot then they have been other teams lately.

Titans and Colts likely both will play their starters. (unless they rest injured guys) But, its our final home game of the season, who knows. Even with starters the Colts could still beat the Titans.

Yeah I know those divison games are always iffy so its hard to predict.

 

[ICSB]

Feel better. The Cards have already wrapped up their division and have nothing to play for. Plus, have you seen Warner and Co. play on the East Coast this year?

One might think they are due to win on the east coast perhaps? They better learn how in case they have to do the same in the playoffs.

And they might not have anything to play for but that does not mean they roll over and die. They could be playing for the third seed instead of the 4th or something like that.

 

[upstater1]

That is not true in the slightest.
The Donks once went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.
It can happen. It did happen. It well may happen.

In addition were either the Jets or Miami to also finish 11-5, the 11-5 Pats are OUT (unless Balt or the Colts self destruct and lose multiple easy games).

It hasn't happened since the NFL went to 6 playoff teams. The Broncos missed out back when there were only 5 playoff teams per conference.

 

[upstater1]

It has happened, and it was our very own 11-5 Pats that kept 11-5 Denver out of the playoffs in 1985, the year they went to Superbowl XX.

Back then, only 5 teams made the playoffs, not 6.

 

[upstater1]

if the first four intradivision tiebreakers are head to head, record in the division, record vs. common opponents and record in the conference, on which basis and how do the pats make it under either of those scenarios?

We beat the Jets and Phins both under common opponents in the tiebreakers.

Jets have losses to Oakland and Denver.

Phins would have a loss to Kansas City.

 

[upstater1]

yes we lose the tie breakers to both of them.

It all depends. If we're tied at 11-5, then we lose the tiebreaker.

If we're tied at 10-6, the Patriots could win on common opponents against either team.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

If the Patriots lose to Arizona (and win the other 2) they win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and beat the Jets OR if the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Phins.

Unlikely? Yes. Farfetched? No.

OK, assuming this is true, this is the complete rundown, in rough order of probability, by my estimation:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division

2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division

3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)

5) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs and beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak, common opponents)

6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.

7) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games; the Patriots win the wild card.

8) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2; the Patriots win the division.

9) The Colts lose all 3, Bill Polian cries so loudly that his Colts are out of the playoffs, the rules are changed immediately so that the season is lengthened by a week, 6 more wild card teams are added.



What is bolded is the most important part.

 

[ICSB]

Another odd scenario.

Pats and Dolphins both win next two games. Both teams need the division to make the playoffs.

Jets are out of the playoff race by the last game.

Mangini goes easy on the Dolphins to let them in and knock the Pats out.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

Another odd scenario.

Pats and Dolphins both win next two games. Both teams need the division to make the playoffs.

Jets are out of the playoff race by the last game.

Mangini goes easy on the Dolphins to let them in and knock the Pats out.

Then someone puts cement shoe's onto Mangini and he goes to the bottom of the Hudson River......

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It all depends. If we're tied at 11-5, then we lose the tiebreaker.

If we're tied at 10-6, the Patriots could win on common opponents against either team.

i don't think i understand who are considered "common opponents?" For example, the Pats, Jets and Fins all play KC, SF, SD, DEN, STL, SEA, OAK and ARI. The Pats record against those teams is 5--1 with games remaining against OAK and ARI. The Fins record against those teams is 5--1, with games remaining against KC and SF. The Jets record is 3--4, with a game remaining against SEA. I get how we beat the Jets on the 10--6 scenario, but not the Fins. I think I'm missing something.