UPDATE OF POSSIBILITIES ACCORDING TO LIKELIHOOD:
1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose OR TIE one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose OR TIE one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 OR LOSE ONE AND TIE ONE OR TIE ALL THREE (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot
4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to either the 49ers or Chiefs OR TIE BOTH THE 49RS AND CHIEFS, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak against Jets, common opponents)
5) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games OR LOSE 1 AND TIE ONE OR TIE ALL THREE despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.
6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games OR LOSE 2 AND TIE 1; the Patriots win the wild card.
7) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2 (OR 1-1-1); the Patriots win the division.
8) Patriots go 2-1 with loss to the Cardinals, Phins lose to Chiefs and beat Jets, Chiefs win 2 other games, Chargers lose 3 games, then the Patriots win the division on the 6th tiebreaker, strength of schedule. ONE OF THE CHIEF WINS OR ONE OF THE CHARGER LOSES COULD BE A TIE INSTEAD.