Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm sure that comparable things have appeared elsewhere (so if you feel you've got the Playoff possibilities nailed, just ignore this thread), but Gasper's piece in today's Globe is the clearest and best written explanation of the Pat's Playoff dilemma that I have read (link below).

Bottom line for me? Besides "taking care of business" over our next three games, we have to win the Division, as I know others have observed. For that to happen, the Jets have to implode against the Niners or Seahawks and then beat the Dolphins for "pride" and to stick it to Chad in the final game. It is, however, possible that at that point they would have completely fallen apart and would rather die than put the Pats in the Playoffs, even if that means letting Chad beat them in the Meadowlands. I don't see the Dolphins losing to the 49ers or Chiefs with Bill Parcells walking the halls.

The Ravens might lose to the Steelers, but the likelihood of their also losing to the Cowboys who threw up in Pittsburgh on Sunday or to this year's Jaguars in a meaningful game is slim, not impossible, but slim. The likelihood of the Colts losing two of their three remaining games (against the Lions, Jags and Titans) is similarly slim.


For Patriots, winning isn't everything - The Boston Globe

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Yes, but in reading the comments, a lot of people still don't get it. It is almost this simple, there are really just 3 ways that make sense for the Patriots to make the playoffs and that are not incredibly far-fetched, in other words these are scenarios we can easily hope for:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

There are far less likely scenarios, like the Colts losing 2 of 3 games despite easy schedule, or the Steelers losing all 3, or an amazing combination of lots of teams losing like crazy and the Patriots going 2-1 and then sneaking in. By far the easiest and most likely path to the playoffs is 1) 2) or 3) as I described above.

 

[Grizzafted]

I think the most likely scenario is that the dolphins lose in Kansas City (it's no joke to play in Arrowhead this time of year), and then they frantically try to beat the jets, hoping that buffalo will beat the pats. That's probably best-case scenario, to have the dolphins in the meadowlands playing their minds out and hoping for the buffalo upset.

this is assuming, of course, we can figure out how the hell we're going to cover larry fitzgerald and anquan boldin.

 

[ALP]

i like scenario number 2 the best....

 

[GostkowSKI]

Although it's more of a long-shot, the wild card seems to be the best path for the Pats. Consider the following:

Pats get in as the #6 seed (assuming the Colts don't implode). They would then face one of the following teams in the first round - @ NYJ, @ MIA or @ DEN. Considering they've already won at both the Jets and Dolphins and beat the Broncos by 34, we have to like the Pats odds there.

Going ahead and saying they win wild-card weekend, that would automatically set up a date @ Tennessee, or more importantly in my mind misses a date @ Pittsburgh. I prefer the idea of NE playing @ Tennessee while letting Pittsburgh and presumably Indy beat up on each other rather than to go @ Pitt.

Now if they win the division, they will most likely be the 3 seed (head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver), meaning they'll have to play Jets/Dolphins/Ravens in New England, then be locked into a game @ Pittsburgh the following week, again assuming a Pats win. From there, it would be either a AFC Title game @ Tennessee OR home vs. Indy, presuming Indy gets by Denver in the first round.

I know I'm getting WAY ahead of myself, but it almost seems to be a easier path going as the 6 seed.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Dallas is very likely to beat Baltimore. They looked bad in Pittsburgh without Barber and Romo not being used to inclimate conditions. Those 2 will most likely be different when Baltimore faces them IN Dallas. And it will be a must-win for Dallas whether they beat the Giants or not thsi week.

You never know what will happen in this league but I think it's safer to count on Pittsburgh and Dallas than the scrub teams Miami and the Jets have left.

 

[signbabybrady]

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

Simplified
In these scenarios the pats must go 3-0

1) we win the division if both Mia and Jets lose one.

2) we win the wild card if either the Ravens or Colts lose 2.


There are some other out there scenarios if we were to lose one but those are highly unlikely.

We need to win out and we need two losses to occur. this is the simplest way to state it.

 

[JSn]

Sounds like we have a few ways in, and it sucks that we aren't in control. I guess that beating the 2-Win Seahawks by three makes it tough to look that far ahead.

Still, that wildcard scenario sounds like a softer trip to the big game.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Although it's more of a long-shot, the wild card seems to be the best path for the Pats. Consider the following:

Pats get in as the #6 seed (assuming the Colts don't implode). They would then face one of the following teams in the first round - @ NYJ, @ MIA or @ DEN. Considering they've already won at both the Jets and Dolphins and beat the Broncos by 34, we have to like the Pats odds there.

Going ahead and saying they win wild-card weekend, that would automatically set up a date @ Tennessee, or more importantly in my mind misses a date @ Pittsburgh. I prefer the idea of NE playing @ Tennessee while letting Pittsburgh and presumably Indy beat up on each other rather than to go @ Pitt.

Now if they win the division, they will most likely be the 3 seed (head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver), meaning they'll have to play Jets/Dolphins/Ravens in New England, then be locked into a game @ Pittsburgh the following week, again assuming a Pats win. From there, it would be either a AFC Title game @ Tennessee OR home vs. Indy, presuming Indy gets by Denver in the first round.

I know I'm getting WAY ahead of myself, but it almost seems to be a easier path going as the 6 seed.

You're going to think I'm crazy, but I want revenge against Pittsburgh. The Pats can beat them in a rematch, like they've done before. Pittsburgh offense is not that strong. Pats could have their full assortment of RBs back for the rematch. Pats could also have Ty Warren back for a rematch. I also doubt Moss will be dropping balls all over the field again, in a rematch. Again, I realize this would be a tough task, but I hate Pittsburgh, their fans, and their Iron City beer.

 

[richpats]

I don't think it was said specifically but the Pats could still win the next 2 and be eliminated from playoff contention BEFORE the Buffalo game. All that would need to happen is Baltimore, Indy, Miami and the Jets winning their next 2 (not impossible). That would be a real bummer.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't think it was said specifically but the Pats could still win the next 2 and be eliminated from playoff contention BEFORE the Buffalo game. All that would need to happen is Baltimore, Indy, Miami and the Jets winning their next 2 (not impossible). That would be a real bummer.

You're no fun!

 

[captadamnj]

If the Pats win out, something will happen that will allow them to get into the playoffs. There is a reason an 11-5 team has never missed the playoffs, and this year won't be the year it happens.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I don't think we necessarily have to win our division to make the playoffs. The ravens have to play the cowboys in dallas and the steelers. If we win our games and the ravens lose those two, we beat them out. I don't think they'll lose to the steelers, but if they do, then we're in decent shape. I would obviously rather win the division though.

 

[thechris]

Dallas is very likely to beat Baltimore. They looked bad in Pittsburgh without Barber and Romo not being used to inclimate conditions. Those 2 will most likely be different when Baltimore faces them IN Dallas. And it will be a must-win for Dallas whether they beat the Giants or not thsi week.

You never know what will happen in this league but I think it's safer to count on Pittsburgh and Dallas than the scrub teams Miami and the Jets have left.

Not only will it be a must-win for the Cowboys when they play the Ravens, but it is also the LAST game at Texas Stadium. All the Cowboy legends will be there and the fans will be beyond fired up.

I know Flacco ain't your normal rookie quarterback, but I don't think he can lead the Ravens into Dallas and win.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Yes, but in reading the comments, a lot of people still don't get it. It is almost this simple, there are really just 3 ways that make sense for the Patriots to make the playoffs and that are not incredibly far-fetched, in other words these are scenarios we can easily hope for:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division
2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division
3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

There are far less likely scenarios, like the Colts losing 2 of 3 games despite easy schedule, or the Steelers losing all 3, or an amazing combination of lots of teams losing like crazy and the Patriots going 2-1 and then sneaking in. By far the easiest and most likely path to the playoffs is 1) 2) or 3) as I described above.

Best job yet of boiling it down, though I guess technically you should say "...Ravens or Colts lose 2 of 3...". Otherwise, that's how I'm thinking about it from now on.

 

[WhiZa]

So if the Jets lose in the next two games we want them to beat the Dolphins. Scary scenario rooting for the Jets

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Here's my version:

New England goes 3-0.

Team A.....don't matter
Team B.....don't matter

...


Team Z.....don't matter

 

[signbabybrady]

I think all tie breakers should be thrown out the window if your team has won 3 titles in the last ten years and/or was just in the SB the year before.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Simplified
In these scenarios the pats must go 3-0

1) we win the division if both Mia and Jets lose one.

2) we win the wild card if either the Ravens or Colts lose 2.


There are some other out there scenarios if we were to lose one but those are highly unlikely.

We need to win out and we need two losses to occur. this is the simplest way to state it.

OK. I'm fickle. You get the prize. You point out that it can be boiled down to one sentence:

"Pats go 3--0 and win the Division if the Jets AND Fins each lose one or they win the WC if the Ravens OR Colts lose two."

 

[richpats]

You're no fun!

So I've been told