Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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After going through the "Camp Battles" exercise and reading all the other excellent roster projection threads, it looks like the roster is coming together quite nicely. In fact, most of the gameday active spots seem to be filled...as I see 40 of the 45 pretty much set at this point:
QB (1) - Brady
RB (5) - Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Jordan, Evans
WR (5) - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, CJackson, Washington
TE (2) - Watson, DThomas
OL (5) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Kaczur, Britt
DL (5) - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, JGreen, Wright
LB (6) - AThomas, Bruschi, Mayo, Vrabel, Woods, Crable
DB (7) - Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Harrison, JSanders, Meriweather, Lynch
ST (4) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton, Slater
This leaves 5 gameday active spots left and 3 of those are the clear remaining camp battles:
Backup QB - Cassel vs Gutierrez
Not much more to be said here. May be too late for Cassel, especially if Gutierrez plays well tonight. If Gutierrez gets the start, Cassel is already gone. Spot to Gutierrez.
Starting ROG - Yates vs Welbourne vs Hochstein vs Flynn
Yates would seem to be the natural pick here but he has really struggled in preseason. Hochstein hasn't been healthy enough to get a good read on him. Welbourne has looked fine in his limited time and Flynn is still getting his feet wet. This is kind of a mess so I'll give the spot to Welbourne on a gut feeling.
Swing OG/C - Hochstein vs Flynn
If Hochstein is healthy (and I'll assume he is for this exercise), then he gets the call. Otherwise he starts inactive or on the IR and Flynn moves in.
That leaves 2 gameday active spots left and CB, ILB and ST looking like the spots most in need of bolstering. If veterans (meaning guys who have gotten regular reps in the past) can't make it with these remaining 2 spots, they need to start exploring opportunities elsewhere.
Final 2 Gameday Active - Izzo, Hobson, Alexander, LSanders, Aiken
Aiken gets tossed off the list, but is in the inactive mix since he is hurt. Hobson just hasn't shown enough or earned enough reps to make the team. The fact that Izzo survived the first cut and hasn't retired leads me to believe he gets a spot. Since I'm more concerned about CB depth than I am about ST linebacker types (already have Woods/Crable/Izzo not including the other rooks), the final spot goes to LSanders.
Now comes the fun part...the backend of the roster. To simplify things, I'm going to assume Hochstein is healthy (and already safely on the roster) and Aiken isn't healthy enough to make the cut. Also going to assume O'Connell, Yates, LSmith and Wilhite take the first 4 spots. That leaves 4 spots open for players to fight their way onto the roster:
Spann has clearly stepped up this offseason. He was ready to play and took advantage of his opportunities. In my eyes, he makes the team because of the work ethic and ability to expand beyond special teams play and into some regular defensive snaps. Lots of safeties on the roster though, which works against him because I don't see him at CB.
Guyton flashed some in the preseason games, but at times showed that he is very raw. His speed and ability to pursue make him a potential ST demon and he has shown enough to warrant a backend roster spot as a developmental LB.
Ventrone has done everything asked of him and certainly held his own. His ability to be a Swiss Army player makes him valuable to plug multiple holes if a serious injury bug hits. His effort and attitude are exactly what you want in the locker room every day.
The last spot it tough. A 3rd TE would be nice but Stupar and Spach haven't shown enough to get on the field in 3 TE sets. A little more DL depth wouldn't hurt and Santonio, Fafita and especially Kenny Smith have shown up at times. Richardson looked good last year and Ruud was drafted for a reason. However, I think Redd has flashed enough potential to keep as a developmental OLB. He has ideal measurables for the Pats scheme and that is hard to find. Too much upside to risk on the waiver wire, he gets the last spot.
So that leaves us with the following roster (* = projected inactive). Heavy on DBs but I expect Harrison and Lynch to have roles beyond that of traditional safeties.
QB (3) - Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell*
RB (5) - Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Jordan, Evans
WR (5) - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, CJackson, Washington
TE (2) - Watson, DThomas
OL (8) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Kaczur, Britt, Welbourne, Hochstein, Yates*
DL (6) - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, JGreen, Wright, LSmith*
LB (8) - AThomas, Bruschi, Mayo, Vrabel, Woods, Crable, Guyton*, Redd*
DB (11) - Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Harrison, JSanders, Meriweather, Lynch, LSanders, Wilhite*, Spann*, Ventrone*
ST (5) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton, Slater, Izzo
QB (1) - Brady
RB (5) - Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Jordan, Evans
WR (5) - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, CJackson, Washington
TE (2) - Watson, DThomas
OL (5) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Kaczur, Britt
DL (5) - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, JGreen, Wright
LB (6) - AThomas, Bruschi, Mayo, Vrabel, Woods, Crable
DB (7) - Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Harrison, JSanders, Meriweather, Lynch
ST (4) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton, Slater
This leaves 5 gameday active spots left and 3 of those are the clear remaining camp battles:
Backup QB - Cassel vs Gutierrez
Not much more to be said here. May be too late for Cassel, especially if Gutierrez plays well tonight. If Gutierrez gets the start, Cassel is already gone. Spot to Gutierrez.
Starting ROG - Yates vs Welbourne vs Hochstein vs Flynn
Yates would seem to be the natural pick here but he has really struggled in preseason. Hochstein hasn't been healthy enough to get a good read on him. Welbourne has looked fine in his limited time and Flynn is still getting his feet wet. This is kind of a mess so I'll give the spot to Welbourne on a gut feeling.
Swing OG/C - Hochstein vs Flynn
If Hochstein is healthy (and I'll assume he is for this exercise), then he gets the call. Otherwise he starts inactive or on the IR and Flynn moves in.
That leaves 2 gameday active spots left and CB, ILB and ST looking like the spots most in need of bolstering. If veterans (meaning guys who have gotten regular reps in the past) can't make it with these remaining 2 spots, they need to start exploring opportunities elsewhere.
Final 2 Gameday Active - Izzo, Hobson, Alexander, LSanders, Aiken
Aiken gets tossed off the list, but is in the inactive mix since he is hurt. Hobson just hasn't shown enough or earned enough reps to make the team. The fact that Izzo survived the first cut and hasn't retired leads me to believe he gets a spot. Since I'm more concerned about CB depth than I am about ST linebacker types (already have Woods/Crable/Izzo not including the other rooks), the final spot goes to LSanders.
Now comes the fun part...the backend of the roster. To simplify things, I'm going to assume Hochstein is healthy (and already safely on the roster) and Aiken isn't healthy enough to make the cut. Also going to assume O'Connell, Yates, LSmith and Wilhite take the first 4 spots. That leaves 4 spots open for players to fight their way onto the roster:
Spann has clearly stepped up this offseason. He was ready to play and took advantage of his opportunities. In my eyes, he makes the team because of the work ethic and ability to expand beyond special teams play and into some regular defensive snaps. Lots of safeties on the roster though, which works against him because I don't see him at CB.
Guyton flashed some in the preseason games, but at times showed that he is very raw. His speed and ability to pursue make him a potential ST demon and he has shown enough to warrant a backend roster spot as a developmental LB.
Ventrone has done everything asked of him and certainly held his own. His ability to be a Swiss Army player makes him valuable to plug multiple holes if a serious injury bug hits. His effort and attitude are exactly what you want in the locker room every day.
The last spot it tough. A 3rd TE would be nice but Stupar and Spach haven't shown enough to get on the field in 3 TE sets. A little more DL depth wouldn't hurt and Santonio, Fafita and especially Kenny Smith have shown up at times. Richardson looked good last year and Ruud was drafted for a reason. However, I think Redd has flashed enough potential to keep as a developmental OLB. He has ideal measurables for the Pats scheme and that is hard to find. Too much upside to risk on the waiver wire, he gets the last spot.
So that leaves us with the following roster (* = projected inactive). Heavy on DBs but I expect Harrison and Lynch to have roles beyond that of traditional safeties.
QB (3) - Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell*
RB (5) - Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Jordan, Evans
WR (5) - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, CJackson, Washington
TE (2) - Watson, DThomas
OL (8) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Kaczur, Britt, Welbourne, Hochstein, Yates*
DL (6) - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, JGreen, Wright, LSmith*
LB (8) - AThomas, Bruschi, Mayo, Vrabel, Woods, Crable, Guyton*, Redd*
DB (11) - Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Harrison, JSanders, Meriweather, Lynch, LSanders, Wilhite*, Spann*, Ventrone*
ST (5) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton, Slater, Izzo