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Brady the 50 Pass per Game Gunslinger


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Those numbers were the best I could find. Really wanted the average distance that each attempt traveled in the air. Couldn't find it with a quick search.
The point is the style of offense (regarding length of pass) Brady runs is the same as every one runs, with only minor differences.
 
If we get 7-8 yards per play when passing the ball and 3-4 yards per play when we are running the ball,

I can't imagine why anyone would think that we are passing the ball way too much.

That is assuming that the QB is getting good enough protection to avoid hits for the types of passes he is throwing, and that is definitely true.

Keep up the aerial attack.
 
Great article on the unprecedented dominant stats when TFB is asked (too often!) to carry the team.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...atriots/2015/09/tom_brady_nfls_top_gunslinger

"The Patriots are 15-7 (.682) when Brady passes the ball 50 or more times, including the postseason. Every other team in modern NFL history (since 1960) has combined to go 100-386-6 (.209) in this situation. The Brady Patriots have singularly won 13 percent of all the 50-attempt victories during the past 55 years of professional football. Lamonica, by the way, never attempted 50 passes in a game.

Victory in these bombing campaigns is difficult for two reasons: First, it’s usually a sign of desperation. Most NFL teams tend to pass the ball that often only when they’re down big. Second, desperate quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions, sometimes multiple. And teams simply don’t win when they throw interceptions.

Brady and the Patriots, however, are utterly unique in their ability to win these games: Brady is the career leader in 50-attempt games (22), 50-attempt wins (15) and 50-attempt winning percentage (.682).

Nobody else is close.

Peyton Manning is second with 17 50-attempt games, and he’s just 4-13 (.235) in those contests."


Aaron Rogers has never had to do this, not even once.

Considering what is on Brady's shoulders (the number of critical games where he is essentially the entire offense for 50 passes, lack of a run game, his quality of receivers during his career compared to that of other great quarterbacks), I don't see how there can be any argument that he is the greatest ever.

Here is some other information that I hope describes how truly special he is. Here is a list of the oldest Superbowl Winning Quarterbacks, how they performed, what the team rushing total was (to take pressure off of the quarterback), and the ratio of total plays that were passing plays and rushing plays (no punts, etc.):

1. John Elway, 38, Broncos Won SB XXXIII
PASSING 18/29, 336 yds, 1 TD, 1 int
TEAM RUSHING: 121 yds, 36 attempts
% PLAYS THAT ARE PASS/RUSH - 44% / 56 %

2. Jonny Unitas, 37, Colts won SB V
PASSING 3/9, 88 yds, 1 TD, 2 int
TEAM RUSHING 69 yds, 31 attempts
% PLAYS THAT ARE PASS (Unitas+Morrall)/RUSH - 43% / 57%

3. John Elway, 37, Broncos Won SB XXXII
PASSING 12/22, 123 yds, no TD, 1 int
TEAM RUSHING 179 yds, 39 attempts
% PLAYS THAT ARE PASS/RUSH - 36% / 64%

4. Tom Brady, 37, Patriots Won SB XLIX
PASSING 37/50, 328 yds, 4 TD's, 2 int
TEAM RUSHING 57 yds, 21 attempts
% PLAYS THAT ARE PASS/RUSH - 70% / 30%

5. Earl Morrall, 36, Colts Won SB V
PASSING 7/15, 147 yds, no TD, 1 int
TEAM RUSHING 69 yds
(see 2. for % plays that are PASS/RUSH)

6. Jim Plunkett, 36, Raiders Won SB XVIII
PASSING 16/25, 154 yds, 1 TD, no int
TEAM RUSHING 231 yds, 33 attempts
% PLAYS THAT ARE PASS/RUSH - 43% / 57%

Anything stand out to anybody?

This is why TB is the greatest ever, the way he delivers when virtually everything is on his shoulders (especially at his age) is truly remarkable.
 
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The point is the style of offense (regarding length of pass) Brady runs is the same as every one runs, with only minor differences.

So perhaps it seems like the Patriots have such a short attack because they run a lot of short routes to wide receivers. Meanwhile, other teams swing the ball out to RBs far more than the Patriots.

Interesting
 
A testament to BB as much as it is for Brady, if that hasn't been said already. If he had prime Adrian Peterson in the backfield against the number 1 run defense in the league, the play call balance would be something like 5:1 pass to run, basically the polar opposite of the AFCCG. He doesn't care who he has, he's going to hit you where it hurts until you prove you can stop it. The two are really a match made in football heaven.

Brady is what, 38 now? And he literally gets better with age. He's got some Benjamin Button **** going on honestly.
 
. Meanwhile Brady's getting a first down every other throw and the team slowly marches down the field as if it's a casual stroll to the end zone.
I think the Patriots offense is predicated on treating second down as a third down. They want to convert and get a first down without having to go to a third down. That way if they don't convert a second down, they still have a third down to convert it.
All teams want to do it but look at how often Pats receiver run their patterns to the yard markets avoiding 3rd down, or at least trying to avoid it. It sounds obvious but I would like to see the number of third downs as a proportion of plays compared to other teams. I have a feeling it will be much lower for NEP....
 
I loved the Branch/Givens intermediate game of 2003-2005. Brady excels at it.

This is true...when Brady's in rhythm, he'll fire those passes out incredibly quickly and with great accuracy.

I feel as confident when he throws lasers like that it will be a completion as I feel not confident about any deep pass he throws with air under it.
 
I always laugh when people complain that Brady's a "system QB" because he plays in a "dink and dunk" offense. Mostly because these same people will watch him utterly annihilate some supposedly good defense that's supposed to have a fierce pass rush, and complain that their team can't do the same. And they probably blame their OC, since apparently replicating the Pats' offense is as simple as telling YOUR QB to complete a ton of short passes and never throwing picks.

There's a reason why other teams can't: because this "dink and dunk" offense requires a QB who's utterly mastered pre-snap reads, quick release, short-intermediate throws into tight windows, and bailing on negative plays. There's no other QB in the NFL right now that can do it.
 
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Wear on the QB's arm would be one consideration, no?

I am guessing that he throws nearly as many passes every day in practice as he does in games, so while throwing 30 passes vs. throwing 50 passes on game day sounds like a lot, overall it is not a big increase in workload. He has great mechanics.

The overwhelmingly largest issue of wear and tear to your arm, I would think, is how many hits you take that affect your mechanics or lessen your arm strength, not how many passes you release.
 
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If we get 7-8 yards per play when passing the ball and 3-4 yards per play when we are running the ball,

I can't imagine why anyone would think that we are passing the ball way too much.

That is assuming that the QB is getting good enough protection to avoid hits for the types of passes he is throwing, and that is definitely true.

Keep up the aerial attack.

IMO it's all still a matchup thing. The Steelers might actually have a good run defense this year, with Ryan Shazier leading the way. They just shut down the 49ers running game a week after the 49ers ran all over the Vikings, anyway. And we know that Buffalo's strength is its DL.

I'm confident that when the Pats run up against some weak run Ds, they'll run more. But they're not going to give away downs running against front sevens that can stop them without having to bring an 8th man down. Contrary to traditional wisdom, running for a yard and a half per rush against a team that can stop you with 6-7 isn't going to serve some long-term goal. Sure, it should tire the defense down eventually, but that benefit is outweighed by having fewer plays on offense and spending less time wearing down the pass rush.
 
I am guessing that he throws nearly as many passes every day in practice as he does in games, so while throwing 30 passes vs. throwing 50 passes on game day sounds like a lot, overall it is not a big increase in workload. He has great mechanics.

The overwhelmingly largest issue of wear and tear to your arm, I would think, is how many hits you take that affect your mechanics or lessen your arm strength, not how many passes you release.
Oh, definitely agree with the second part--it's getting hit by these rhinos that'll take years off your life.

But I do think that game throws maybe tax the arm more? I have no knowledge of that, just feels like they might. Just seems like a guy throwing the ball almost twice as much as another guy would have an effect.

Or maybe not! Hell, maybe it's that aggressive use that wards off aging. Look at how they coddle pitchers in baseball, seems to backfire as often as not.
 
The only thing that worries me is the wear and tear on his arm if he has too many of those 50+ games in a season. That arm has seen a lot of passes over the last 15 years.
 
The only thing that worries me is the wear and tear on his arm if he has too many of those 50+ games in a season. That arm has seen a lot of passes over the last 15 years.

Yes. I don't wanna see that many attempts.
 
Just wanna add that Brady doesn't just pass short for the sake of it. He takes what the D gives him. He makes the best decision possible every snap. The Pats opponents just happen to give us a lot of short yardage. Also, combined with our management of the salary cap, we are unlikely to pay for a Dez Cryant. So we get UDFA and 7th round QB-converted WR and rely on their strength; quickness in the first 5-10 yards.


Do those dudes in the Zebra suit ever get tired?
 
I would say at this time that a gaudy number of pass attempts is just as much playing to the strength of Brady as it is playing to the strength of the inexperienced offensive line. Brady getting the ball out quick for most of the plays means the linemen don't have to pass protect very long. If they ran more deep shots or run plays, they would be asking the linemen to pass protect longer or open holes, which isn't a strength right now. Hopefully by the second half of the year, when Stork and Wendell should both be fully healthy, and Mason & Jackson are more experienced, they can start blowing open lanes for Blount and Lewis.

I would also add that Brady is more effective at passing more right now because he can diagnose when the defense simply doesn't have their s*** together (which is more likely right now since these early games have effectively become pseudo-preseason).


That's it Ross. Brady is able to offset the pass rush with his quick reads and decisions. He is among the best if not the best ever at doing so.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/16/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/
 
IMO it's all still a matchup thing. The Steelers might actually have a good run defense this year, with Ryan Shazier leading the way. They just shut down the 49ers running game a week after the 49ers ran all over the Vikings, anyway. And we know that Buffalo's strength is its DL.

I'm confident that when the Pats run up against some weak run Ds, they'll run more. But they're not going to give away downs running against front sevens that can stop them without having to bring an 8th man down. Contrary to traditional wisdom, running for a yard and a half per rush against a team that can stop you with 6-7 isn't going to serve some long-term goal. Sure, it should tire the defense down eventually, but that benefit is outweighed by having fewer plays on offense and spending less time wearing down the pass rush.
Not disagreeing, except Ryan Shazier is anything but a 'leading the way run defender'.
 
I always laugh when people complain that Brady's a "system QB" because he plays in a "dink and dunk" offense. Mostly because these same people will watch him utterly annihilate some supposedly good defense that's supposed to have a fierce pass rush, and complain that their team can't do the same. And they probably blame their OC, since apparently replicating the Pats' offense is as simple as telling YOUR QB to complete a ton of short passes and never throwing picks.

There's a reason why other teams can't: because this "dink and dunk" offense requires a QB who's utterly mastered pre-snap reads, quick release, short-intermediate throws into tight windows, and bailing on negative plays. There's no other QB in the NFL right now that can do it.
But everyone now runs a 'dink and dunk' offense. It is how the league has evolved, because you cannot keep pass rushers away long enough to effectively throw the ball down the field all game long.
Short passes are caused by pass rushing concerns.
 
Pittsburgh is also a team with a high powered offense; you have to outscore them in volume.
 
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